Making Eden

by David Beerling

  2. The Missouri Botanic was founded by the philanthropist Henry Shaw (1800–1889).

  Sheffield-born Shaw made his fortune selling steel from Sheffield (‘the Steel City’) to pioneer settlers in the then small French town of St Louis on the banks of the Mississippi River. Within two decades, he was able to retire at the young age of 40 and spend his retirement working with botanists to plan, fund, and build the historic Missouri

  Botanical Garden. The Sheffield and the Missouri Botanical Gardens were forged in the crucible of the Industrial Revolution by co-operation between human societies, when the population was less than two billion, when the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration was 30% lower than today, and biodiversity had not yet flinched.

  3. Anon (2017) Twenty-first century botany. Nature Plants, 3, 681.

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  7. Gerland, P. et al. (2014) World population stabilization unlikely this century. Science, 346, 234–7.

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  Science, 327, 812–18.

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  15. Hansen, J. et al. (2013) Assessing ‘Dangerous Climate Change’: Required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature. PLoS One, 8, e81648.

  16. An excellent review of the Anthropocene concept is given in the following paper, whose authors include its originator, the Nobel Prize winner Paul Crutzen: Steffen, W. et al. (2011) The Anthropocene: conceptual and historical perspectives. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, A369, 842–67.

  17. Waters, C.N. et al. (2016) The Anthropocene is functionally and stratigraphically distinct from the Holocene. Science, 351, 137–48.

  18. http://science.kew.org/strategic-output/state-worlds-plants

  19. Royal Botanic Gardens Kew (2010) Plants under Pressure: A Global Assessment. The First Report of the IUCN Sampled Red List Index for Plants. RBG, Kew.

  20. Pimm, S.L. et al. (2014) The biodiversity of species and their rates of extinction, distribution, and protection. Science, 344, doi: 10.1126/science.1246752.

  21. Goettsch, B. et al. (2015) High proportion of cactus species threatened with extinction.

  Nature Plants, 1, article number 15142.

  22. Pitman, N.C.A. & Jorgensen, P.M. (2002) Estimating the size of the world’s threatened flora. Science, 298, 989.

  23. Firbeck is noted for its oval green that was once the private racecourse of the eighteenth-century racehorse owner Anthony St Leger, the man who established the St. Leger

  Stakes horse race.

  24. A modern context of Watson’s work is provided in: Hubbell, S.P. (2001) The Unified Neutral Theory of Biodiversity and Biogeography. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.

  25. Myers, N. et al. (2000) Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Nature, 403, 853–8.

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  27. Thomas, C.D. et al. (2004) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature, 427, 145–8. See also the accompanying commentary: Pounds, J.A. & Puschendorf, R. (2004) Clouded futures. Nature, 427, 107–9.

  28. Hubbell, S.P. et al. (2008) How many tree species are there in the Amazon and how many of them will go extinct? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA, 105

  (Suppl 1), 11498–504.

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  29. Peres, C.A. et al. (2016) Dispersal limitation induces long-term biomass collapse in overhunted Amazonian forests. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA, 113, 892–7.

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  32. Thuiller, W. et al. (2005) Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA, 102, 8245–50.

  33. Lenoir, J. et al. (2008) A significant upward shift in plant species optimum elevation during the 20th century. Science, 320, 1768–71. Dainese, M. et al. (2017) Human disturbance and upward expansion of plants in a warming climate. Nature Climate Change, 7, 577–80.

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  35. One issue is how well the species–area relationship describes the magnitude of extinctions as a result of habitat loss. Consider that, with increasing area, the species–area relationship increases each time the first individual of a new species is encountered.

  Further individuals of the same species add nothing to the species count, of course.

  Now, consider the reverse situation. Decreasing habitat area doesn’t actually cause extinction until the last individual of that species is eliminated. It can be shown mathematically that predicting the extent of species extinctions using species–area relationships by moving down the slope overestimates the magnitude of species extinction.

  This is not to say we should be complacent about extinctions due to habitat destruction; rather that the estimates of Thomas et al. (2004) are probably towards the high end. See He, F. & Hubbell, S.P. (2011) Species–area relationships always overestimate extinction rates from habitat loss. Nature, 473, 368–71, with an accompanying explanatory commentary by Rahbek, C. & Colwell, R.K. (2011) Species loss revisited. Nature, 473, 288–9.

  36. Woodward, F.I. & Kelly, C.K. (2008) Responses of global plant diversity to changes in carbon dioxide concentration and climate. Ecology Letters, 11, 1229–37.

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  38. Loarie, S.R. et al. (2009) The velocity of climate change. Nature, 462, 1052–5. Further analyses are given in Diffenbaugh, N.S. & Field, C.B. (2013) Changes in ecologically critical terrestrial climate conditions. Science, 341, 486–92.

  39. Williams, J.W., Jackson, S.T. & Kutzbach, J.E. (2007) Projected distributions of novel and disappearing climates by 2100AD. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA, 104, 5738–42.

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  43. Cronk, Q. (2016) Plant extinctions take time. Science, 353, 446–7.

  44. Pimm et al. (2014). See also Velland et al. (2017).

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  45. Barnosky, A.D. et al. (2011) Has the Earth’s sixth mass extinction already arrived?

  Nature, 471, 51–7.

  46. See Barnosk
y et al. (2011).

  47. Benton, M.J. & Twitchett, R.J. (2003) How to kill (almost) all life: the end-Permian extinction event. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 18, 358–65.

  48. Hautmann, M., Benton, M.J. & Tomašových, A. (2008) Catastrophic ocean acidification at the Triassic–Jurassic boundary. Neues Jahrbuch fur Geologie und Paläontologie—

  Abhandlungen, 249, 119–27. A detailed theoretical treatment of extreme ocean acidification as an explanation for the end-Triassic coral gap and carbonate crisis in the seas is given in: Martindale, R.C. et al. (2012) Constraining carbonate chemistry at a potential ocean acidification event (the Triassic–Jurassic boundary) using the presence of corals and coral reefs in the fossil record. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 350–352, 114–23.

  49. See Barnosky et al. (2011).

  50. See Barnosky et al. (2011).

  51. Ceballos, G. et al. (2015) Accelerating modern human-induced species losses: entering the sixth mass extinction. Science Advances, 1, e1400253.

  52. See Benton & Twitchett (2003).

  53. D’Hondt, S. (2005) Consequences of the Cretaceous/Paleogene mass extinction for marine ecosystems. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution and Systematics, 36, 295–317.

  54. Ehrlich, P.R. & Pringle, R.M. (2008) Where does biodiversity go from here? A grim business-as-usual forecast and a hopeful portfolio of partial solutions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA, 105 (Suppl 1), 11579–86.

  55. See Butchart et al. (2010).

  56. http:// www.cbd.int/sp/targets/

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  60. Gibson, D.G. et al. (2010) Creation of a bacterial cell controlled by a chemically synthesized genome. Science, 329, 52–6.

  61. Nee, S. & May, R.M. (1997) Extinction and the loss of evolutionary history. Science, 278, 692–4. See also, Mace, G.M., Gittleman, J.L. & Purvis, A. (2003) Preserving the tree of life. Science, 300, 1707–9.

  62. See Mace et al. (2003).

  63. Cowling, R.M. & Lombard, A.T. (2002) Heterogeneity, speciation/extinction history and climate: explaining region plant diversity patterns in the Cape Floristic Region.

  Diversity and Distribution, 8, 163–79.

  64. Davies, T.J. et al. (2011) Extinction risk and diversification are linked in plant biodiversity hotspot. PLoS Biology, 9(5), e1000620.

  65. Forest, F. et al. (2007) Preserving the evolutionary potential of floras in biodiversity hotspots. Nature, 445, 757–60.

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  66. Constanza, R. et al. (1997) The value of the world’s ecosystem services and natural capital. Nature, 387, 253–7.

  67. Ring, I. et al. (2010) Challenges in framing the economics of ecosystems and biodiversity: the TEEB initiative. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 2, 15–26.

  68. Based on nearly 2 million records of species abundance, nearly 40 000 species from nearly 20 000 locations. See Newbold, T. et al. (2016) Has land use pushed terrestrial biodiversity beyond the planetary boundary? A global assessment. Science, 353, 288–91.

  See also the commentary: Oliver, T.H. (2016) How much biodiversity loss is too much?

  Science, 353, 220–1.

  69. If those rivets represent common species, the analogy finds recent support here: Winfree, R. et al. (2015) Abundance of common species, not species richness, drives delivery of a real-world ecosystem service. Ecology Letters, 18, 626–35.

  70. http://www.footprintnetwork.org/

  71. http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/personal_footprint/

  72. Kitzes, J. et al. (2008) Shrink and share: humanity’s present and future ecological footprint. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, B363, 467–75.

  73. See Foley et al. (2011).

  74. Sanchez, P.A. & Swaminathan, M.S. (2005) Cutting world hunger in half. Science, 307, 357–9.

  75. See Sanchez & Swaminathan (2005).

  76. See Foley et al. (2011).

  77. Ridley, M. (2010) The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves. Fourth Estate, London.

  78. Trewavas, A. (2001) Urban myths of organic farming. Nature, 410, 409–10.

  79. Seufert, V., Ramankutty, N. & Foley, J.A. (2012) Comparing yields of organic and conventional agriculture. Nature, 485, 229–32. See also the commentary by Reganold, J.P. & Doberman, A. (2012) Comparing apples with oranges. Nature, 485, 176–7.

  80. Cassman, K.G., Dobermann, A. & Walters, D.T. (2002) Agroecosystems, nitrogen-use efficiency, and nitrogen management. Ambio, 31, 132–40.

  81. Baulcombe, D. et al. (2009) Reaping Benefits: Science and the Sustainable Intensification of Global Agriculture. Royal Society Policy document, 11/09. The Royal Society, London.

  82. Raven, P.H. (2010) Does the use of transgenic plants diminish or promote biodiversity?

  New Biotechnology, 27, 528–33.

  83. Tilman, D. & Clark, M. (2014) Global diets linked to environmental sustainability and human health. Nature, 515, 518–22.

  84. Stehfest, E. et al. (2009) Climate benefits of changing diet. Climate Change, 95, 83–102.

  85. Hansen, J. et al. (2008) Target atmospheric CO : where should humanity aim? The Open 2

  Atmospheric Science Journal, 2, 217–31.

  86. Hansen, J. et al. (2017) Young people’s burden: requirement of negative CO emissions.

  2

  Earth Systems Dynamics, 8, 577–616.

  87. Clark, P.U. et al. (2016) Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change. Nature Climate Change, 6, 320–69. See also Hansen et al. (2017).

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  89. Edenhofer, O. et al. (eds) (2014) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, New York.

  90. See Le Quéré et al. (2016).

  91. Baker, J.A. et al. (2017) The Conservative Case for Carbon Dividends. Climate Leadership Council. Report available at: https://www.clcouncil.org/media/TheConservative

  CaseforCarbonDividends.pdf

  92. https://citizensclimatelobby.org/

  93. Quotes are from an interview with the author at the Missouri Botanic Garden (19

  August 2013).

  94. Raven offered me a final mischievous remark in this context: ‘That reminds me of another thing someone once said: “You know, to solve all these environmental problems, nations of the world would have to come together and agree to work together, and we might need to form an organization; we might call it the United Nations”.’

  95. Sellars, S. & O’Hara, D. (2012) Extreme Metaphors: Selected Interviews with J.G. Ballard, 1967–

  2008. Fourth Estate, London.

  96. See Ehrlich & Pringle (2008).

  FIGURE CREDI TS

  Figure 2 Chang, C., Bowman, J.L. & Meyerowitz, E.M., Field guide to plant model systems. Cell, 167, 325–339. © 2016 Elsevier Inc.

  Figure 3 Reproduced and modified from Springer Nature: Nature Plants, Enabling the Water to Land Transition, Reski, R. © 2017 Macmil an Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved.

  Figure 4 Reproduced from Trends in Plant Science,Vol.7, Hidalgo, O. et al., ‘Is there an upper limit to genome size?’, pp. 567–573. © 2017 with permission from Elsevier

  Ltd. All rights reserved.

  Figure 5 Reprinted by permission from Springer Nature: Nature, ‘Ancestral polyploidy in seed plants and angiosperms’, Jiao, Y. et al. Copyright © 2011, Springer Nature.

  Figure
6 Reproduced from Current Opinion on Plant Biology, Vol. 30, Soltis, P.S. & Soltis, D.E.,

  ‘Ancient WGD events as drivers of key innovations in angiosperms’, pp. 159–165.

  © 2016 with permission from Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  Figure 7 Courtesy of City of Hope Archives.

  Figure 8 Reprinted by permission from Springer Nature: Nature, Nature Plants, 1, ‘Expanding the role of botanical gardens in the future of food’, Miller, A.J. et al. © 2015.

  Figure 9 Reprinted by permission from Springer Nature: Nature, ‘Stem cel s that make stems’, Weigel, D. & Jurgens, G., © 2002 Macmil an Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved.

  Figure 10 Reprinted from ‘The origin and early evolution of roots’, Paul Kenrick, Christine Strul u-Derrien, Plant Physiology Oct 2014, 166 (2) 570–580; DOI: 10.1104/

  pp.114.244517. © 2014 American Society of Plant Biologists. All Rights Reserved.

  Figure 11 Reproduced from Current Biology, Vol. 26, Arteaga-Vazquez, M.A., ‘Land plant evolution: listen to your elders’, R22-R40. © 2016 with permission from Elsevier

  Ltd. All rights reserved.

  Figure 12 Reprinted by permission from Springer Nature: Nature, ‘A vascular conducting strand in the early land plant Cooksonia’, D. Edwards, K.L. Davies, L. Axe. © 1992, Springer Nature.

  Figure 13 Redrawn from Current Opinion in Plant Biology, Vol. 13, Berry, J.A., Beerling, D.J. & Franks, P.J., ‘Stomata: key players in the earth system, past and present’, pp. 233–240.

  Copyright © 2010 with permission from Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  Figure 16 Reproduced with permission from Cao, L., Bala, G., Caldeira, K., Nemani, E. & Ban-Weiss, G., 2010, ‘Importance of carbon dioxide physiological forcing to

  future climate change’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA, 107, 9513–9518.

  244 a Figure Credits

  Figure 17 (a) Jim Laws / Alamy Stock Photo. (b) Courtesy of Charles Wellman.

  Figure 18 Based on Kidston R, Lang WH. (1921), On Old Red Sandstone plants showing structure, from the Rhynie Chert Bed, Aberdeenshire. Part IV. Restorations

  of the vascular cryptogams, and discussion on their bearing on the general

  morphology of the pteridophyta and the origin of the organization of land-plants’, Transactions of the Royal Society of Edinburgh, 52, 831–854.