Truth, Knowledge, or Just Plain Bull: How to tell the difference
Page 1
Truth,
Knowledge,
or just plain bull
Truth,
Knowledge,
or just plain bull
How to tell
the Difference
A Handbook of
Practical Logic
and Clear Thinking
Bernard M. Patten
Prometheus Books
59 John Glenn Drive
Amherst, New York 14228-2197
TO HER
SINE TE NIHIL
Introduction – The Simple Truth Ain’t Simple
p. 9 This chapter introduces the essential reasons for studying clear thinking. The ideas are few but important and will help you sort out the claims of experts, pseudoexperts, scam artists, and liars alike. Clear thinking helps you protect yourself from the dangers of the ubiquitous nonsense and outright frauds that assault you from every side. As you begin to manipulate the ideas, you will find it a pleasurable activity. Practicing clear, objective thinking will help you become acquainted with important methods to discover truth.[F01] Reading this book will help you master the hidden features of the most empowering of human activities—the signature of the human species, rational thought, which will give you a truly informed choice that is vital for real personal freedom and ultimately beneficial to a free and open society. Along the way, you will learn that clear thinking is not only an amazingly useful skill but also a dazzling beacon of the wise, a cogent activity that serves as a guide for you to live better.
“Logic isn’t half as important as love,” said Oscar Wilde. “But it can prove something.”
What can it prove?
It can prove when they are handing you bullshit.
So what?
It’s important for you to recognize bullshit when they hand it to you.
Huh?
So you can know the truth.
Truth?
p. 10 Yes, truth.
A great man long ago was said to say, “You shall know the truth and the truth shall make you free.” Someone thought that what he said was important enough to engrave it on the entrance to the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia.
Why? And what did this great man—Jesus—mean?
Among other things, Jesus meant that we owe it to ourselves to avoid shackles of paper or iron or both that limit our freedom by asking if we can afford to let the authorities of our time—whether TV commentators; church, government, or corporation officers; newspapers; divisive parochial loyalties; anybody or anything—think for us. For it is by thinking, and thinking correctly, that we shall know the truth.
Clear thinking protects us.
Take investments. As an Enron investor or employee, wouldn’t you have liked to know the truth about Enron before the company went belly up? In situations like that, the truth comes in handy. The truth about Enron would have caused you to sell your shares. The truth would have enabled you to hold on to your money. The truth would have prevented your handing your money over to strangers who were committing fraud.
Clear thinking protects us by giving us an insight into the reality situation.
But more than freedom, the truth gives you insight into reality, the way things are, not the way they ought to be or the way you wish them to be. In fact, that’s what truth is: Truth is what is, as opposed to what is not. Thus, truth is what really exists.
Reality exists. Because reality exists, we must deal with it realistically.
If I drive south from Clear Lake, Texas, in less than one hour I will come upon a large body of salty water. The existence of this sea is an objective fact: it was there before humans swam in it.[1] It is there when no one is there to behold it. It will likely be there when humans abandon Earth and move on to pollute other planets. Even if the United States Congress or the President of the United States denied its existence, its waves would continue to wash its shores, fish would frolic, and pelicans would dive for and eat those fish.
Why objective facts like this exist, I don’t know. I’ll bet you don’t know either. It is enough for us to note that some things do not owe their existence to human thought, wishes, or effort. Those things are the real. They are out there. They are independent of what we think of them. They are independent of whether we like them or not. They, like the Gulf of Mexico, exist. They are real.
p. 11 Because the real is out there, we must deal effectively with it, else it may deal effectively (and harshly) with us.
Yes, that’s the problem, your problem and mine, the crux of our existence, for the real brings many revenges. The real has a sneaky habit of finding us and, eventually, making us trade with it as an intractable fact. It’s sad but true: reality haunts us and punishes us for not dealing with it correctly. I am sorry to have to tell you that fact, but that is the way things are. That is the nature of nature. That is the reality of reality.
Not convinced? Don’t get it? Don’t agree? Thinking, “So what?”
Wishful thinking doesn’t work and may be dangerous.
Permit me to illustrate the point: I would love to flap my arms and fly to the moon. And sometimes I would like it to rain beer. Those things are not possible. To fly, I must stick to the reality-based technologies of zeppelins, helicopters, and airplanes. If I tried my fantasy idea, if I flapped my arms and jumped off a building, I would suffer. Chances are, if I did that from the top of a tall building, I would suffer greatly. And to get a beer, I have to purchase one at the local supermarket or bar or bum one off a friend or neighbor. If I waited for it to rain beer, I would wait forever.
Aye, there’s the rub.[2]
Wishful thinking might give a kind of warm, cozy, fuzzy, happy feeling. But when it comes to operating in the real world, wishful thinking presents handicaps—handicaps that range from the inconvenient to the fatal.
What can happen when reason leaves and wishful thinking takes over? Aviation gives some of the clearest examples. Consider an aviation case in point: You are piloting a jet plane. Momentarily, you look away from that beautiful blue vista in front of you and glance at the fuel gauges. Uh-oh! The gauges are approaching empty. What to do?
That’s the question. What to do? Often, it is the most important question that we have to deal with our whole life long. And as usual, there are multiple answers, multiple choices, some good, some bad, and some ugly.
Some choices will work, some will not. Others will keep you safe. Some will lead to disaster. Which should you choose? How will you know that you have made the right choice? How will you know that you are right? How will you know that you are reality based and safe?
Consider one option: Assume the gauges are wrong and keep flying. This line of thinking assumes that you have fuel, that the gauges are not p. 12 measuring the fuel you have, that the gauges are wrong. The action that follows from this line of thinking is keep flying. Don’t worry.
What’s wrong with that line of thinking? What’s wrong with the action that followed from that line of thinking? Pause for fifty microseconds and think. Why won’t that approach work?
That won’t work because it is highly likely that the gauges are right. Therefore, it will be highly likely that you will run out of fuel and run out soon. Because fuel is needed to keep an airplane aloft, it is highly likely that when you run out of fuel, you will fall out of the sky, tumble back to Mother Earth, and get hurt. Without fuel, it is predictable that your plane will come down under emergency conditions.
I hope you don’t crash. If you do crash, there will be a consolation: There will be no explosion. There will be no fire. There will be no explosion and no f
ire because there is no fuel.
Another option: Just don’t pay any attention to the problem. Deny its existence. Forget it. Go back to dumb contemplation of the beautiful blue limitless dome of the sky, with its fleecy white clouds drifting by. This approach is known as the ostrich approach after the dumb bird of the same name. The ostrich, when danger comes, hides its head in the sand. The ostrich thinks it has solved its problem because it no longer sees the problem. The problem, however, continues to see the ostrich and does not go away because the ostrich no longer wants to see it. The problem is still there. Reality doesn’t go away just because the ostrich wants it to. Instead, the problem stays, often stays to cause trouble, sometimes even eats the ostrich. If the danger were real, the ostrich would have been better off running away, fighting directly, or doing almost anything but what it did.
When you choose to ignore a danger, the danger may not go away. Often it continues and causes trouble, lots and lots of trouble. That is why your consideration of and perception of the reality is so important.
Another option: Assume that the gauges are correct but that airplanes don’t need fuel to fly. Or worse—assume that your plane is special and doesn’t need fuel the way other planes do. In which case, continue flying, and prove, once again to yourself, and to everyone else, now and forever, that planes do need fuel to fly. Prove again that when a plane, any plane, regardless of make and model and of who is at the controls, runs out of fuel, it topples out of the sky.
Yup, that’s the reality principle. That’s the law that governs the situation. There is no way around it. Never has there been an exception to that p. 13 rule, not for you, not for anyone. You either know the rule, or you don’t. You either follow it, or you don’t. But if you don’t know it, or if you know it and don’t follow it, as the night follows the day, trouble follows you. You run out of fuel. When you run out of fuel, you might crash.
Option four: Do the reasonable thing. Take action based in reality. Land. Refuel. Live to fly another day.
Let’s carry the aviation analogy one step further—into your private life. What’s the lesson? Is it possible that unacknowledged conditions, unknown and unintended consequences, self-deception, and other obstacles limit your ability (and mine) to understand fully and react appropriately to the complex situations that we discover in our everyday lives? Were it otherwise, there would hardly be a point to studying clear thinking, logic, or science. Were it otherwise, there would hardly be a point to your reading this book.
Deal with your problems intelligently, reasonably, and realistically. So don’t crash your life away because you don’t know how to deal with reality. Don’t wreck your chances for success with wishful thinking. Take the reasonable approach. Deal with the problem directly and rationally. Know the truth, the reality situation, and deal with it as the real situation requires. Act reasonably. Plan your actions on the basis of what is reasonable and expected. That’s the best way of handling the unreasonable and the unexpected and the unexpectable, things that have a sneaky habit of coming your way. The plane analogy shows us the obvious answers. That’s why I selected it. Not much thinking is involved in solving a fuel deficiency problem. In general, you either fuel or your engine stops. It’s that simple.
An airplane needs fuel the way human beings need food.
The fuel problem applies to human beings. Either you eat, or you die.
Xenophon, in his famous book the Anabasis, tells us that there was one, and only one, cure for the hunger sickness that was causing the Greek troops to collapse on the side of the road. That cure was food. As soon as they were fed, the hunger sickness disappeared, and the troops were able to move again. If the troops were not fed, they continued to languish and subsequently died. Xenophon concluded that the hunger sickness, without food, was fatal. It still is.
Fuel problems and hunger problems have similar solutions. They have similar solutions because they are similar problems. Engines need fuel the way the human body needs food.
Most reality-based problems are not as simple as fuel or food problems.
p. 14 Believe me, I wish there were simple answers to the other problems that we must face and solve. If there were simple answers, we could all be out on our boats having fun or playing in the garden, swimming in the pool, or enjoying a good book or movie. Unfortunately, that is not the reality. The reality is quite the opposite. Most of the time, there are no simple solutions.
All of which brings us to the first important principle to keep in mind when working on the solution to any problem. Memorize this principle now. Recite it often to yourself in front of the mirror. Recite it every day. This principle will serve you your whole life long:
Principle: Simple answers? Forget it! Usually, there are no simple answers because there are few simple problems. On the contrary, most of the problems we must face—the problems that are important to us—are quite complex.
Not only are there usually no simple answers, but as civilization progresses, the issues we have to deal with become more and more complex and the answers become more and more complex, too.
The progression to complexity isn’t all bad. It probably fuels our creativity in all fields. If we reached the end of the line, the human spirit would shrivel and die. No worry about that. We and the things around us—our human creations and our understanding of reality—will increase in complexity, if not in depth, and will remain the cornerstone of our rising powers, as long as we continue to think and act rationally and solve the problems as they arrive on our doorstep.
Lesson: Because there are no simple answers, a simple answer is likely to be wrong.
Yes, wrong!
Therefore, don’t accept at face value any simple answer; especially don’t accept any simple answer to any complex problem.
Recently, investors have learned this lesson the hard way. The moral as applied to investing is that any approach to moneymaking in the stock market that can be easily described and followed by a lot of people is by its very terms too simple and too easy to last. Benedict de Spinoza’s concluding remark to his Ethics applies to Wall Street as well p. 15 as to philosophy: “All things excellent are as difficult as they are rare.” From which follows:
Lesson: Complex questions can be hard to answer.
How about this question: “Does the end justify the means?” What’s the answer to that? Think for a while. Is there an answer? What’s the answer? Does the end justify the means? Yes or no?
This question is obviously in need of considerable analysis. Clearly, some ends might justify some means and not others. In general form, it is like asking, “Is this car that I am about to purchase worth the price?”
What’s the answer? Is this car worth it for me to purchase? What’s the answer to that? Think for a while. Is there an answer? What’s the answer? Do you really know? You don’t know. How come?
You don’t know because the answer depends on the car, the situation, and the people involved. I didn’t tell you what car I’m considering buying, nor did I tell you the price, nor did I inform you about my personal financial position. Without the details, an intelligent answer is not possible. A simple answer is not possible because for complex questions there are no simple answers.
No simple answers?
Ah, shucks!
People think there might be simple answers. People want to believe that there are simple answers. And because of that will to believe, time and time again, they are duped. They fall into a trap, that of missing the point or failing to do what needs to be done or doing what is wrong or unnecessary. Instead of thinking, people hope when they should fear. Or fear when they should hope.
Attacks against the World Trade Center spawned a host of simple answers to the complex problem of terrorism. Within hours of the September 11 attacks on the United States, swindlers had already begun trying to profit from the situation. A major event like that brings out the best in good people and the worst in bad people. For the bad guys, it created new opportunities to
dupe the public. Impostors called thousands of people asking for credit card numbers and Social Security identifications to replace data allegedly lost in the destruction of the World Trade Center. The callers sounded very polished, credible, professional, and everything they said seemed to make sense except when you thought about it for fifteen seconds. Why would anyone need that information p. 16 right away? Don’t financial institutions typically keep duplicates of all such records in other locations specifically to guard against emergencies? Why were sharpies from New York calling you and not Mary from the local bank that you have been dealing with for decades?
What other flimflams and scams arose from the emergency?
Fake fundraising for families of victims, firefighters, and police. Phony military organizations asked for donations. Schemes for fake war bonds or for giving flags to children, troops, and so forth. Phony insurance deals exploiting fear for loss of life or property. Sales of gold and other so-called safe investments, of survival equipment such as gas masks and weapons. Donations were solicited by phony organizations purporting to stop terrorism. Risky or fake business ventures were promoted: “New York City is going to need (insert product name), which is why we recommend you send us money to invest in (insert company name).”
These confidence games, also known as cons, tied to tragedy, are based on emotional appeals to caring and grief, patriotism, fear, revenge, greed—all of these, some, or any combination. They all purport to give simple answers to some rather complex problems. They appealed to the human emotional need to do something right away, even for a silly reason, even for no reason, or even when we know, or should know, the reason was wrong, irrelevant, or inadequate.
The success of all these schemes is predicated on the fact that most people can’t think. And if they can think, they can’t think right; if they can think right, they don’t care to think right because it is too much work; and if they do think right, frequently they don’t act on their conclusions.