Pascal's Wager
Page 1
Pascal’s Wager
The Man Who Played Dice with God
James A. Connor
Contents
Time Lines
Introduction: The Man Who Played Dice with God
1625: The Witch
1626–1631: A Dangerous World
1631–1635: A Thinking Reed
1635: Blaise Among the Geometers
1585–1642: Un Bâtard Magnifique
1631–1638: Madame Sainctot’s Salon
The 1640s: Le Libertin Érudit
1638: Charming the Cardinal
1639–1640: Conic Sections
1642: The Arithmetic Machine
1638: The Jansenists
1614–1646: The Void
1646: Étienne Breaks His Hip
January and February 1647: The Showman
1647–1652: Jacqueline’s Vocation
September 19, 1648: The Great Experiment
1647: A Skirmish with the Devil
1608: Port-Royal and the Clan Arnauld
1643: The Great Arnauld
1643, 1648–1653: The Fronde of the Parlement
1648–1654: Adrift in the World
1652: The Feud
1653–1654: The Gambler’s Ruin
1654: Letters to Fermat
1654: The Night of Fire
1656: So Jolly a Penitent
1655–1661: The Jesuit Menace
1656–1657: The Jesuit Menace, Part 2
1656: The Miracle of the Holy Thorn
1658–1662: Pascal’s Wager
1660–1662: Port-Royal Agonistes
1658–1662: May God Never Abandon Me
Epilogue: Oracles, Dicing, and Schrödinger’s Cat
Notes
Further Reading
About the Author
Copyright
About the Publisher
TIME LINES
1588
PASCAL
Birth of Étienne Pascal, father of Blaise Pascal, in Clermont, in the Auvergne region.
FRANCE
May 12: Day of Barricades in Paris. Duc de Guise seizes the city.
July: Henry III capitulates to the duc de Guise.
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
Spanish Armada nearly succeeds.
1605
PASCAL
FRANCE
Huguenot refugees resettle in Netherlands, Ireland.
Don Quixote is published.
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
James River colony founded in Virginia.
Czar Boris Godunov dies.
Paul V becomes pope.
1616
PASCAL
(?) Étienne Pascal marries Antoinette Begon.
FRANCE
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
Pocahontas arrives in England.
Copernicus’s De revolutionibus is placed on the Index of Forbidden Books.
1617
PASCAL
Birth of Anthonia Pascal, who dies days after her baptism.
FRANCE
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
Saint Rose of Lima dies in Peru.
Pocahontas dies.
1619
PASCAL
Étienne Pascal buys Langhac mansion, near the abbey in Clermont.
FRANCE
Cyrano de Bergerac is born. Jean-Baptiste Colbert is born.
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
Jamestown, Virginia, creates the first representative assembly in the Americas.
Slaves first brought to the colonies.
1620
PASCAL
Birth of Gilberte Pascal, who marries her cousin Florin Perier.
FRANCE
Jean Picard, French astronomer, is born.
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
Plymouth colonists set out from England.
Witchcraft trials begin in Scotland.
Francis Bacon publishes the Novum organum.
Bonesetting becomes a science.
Thirty Years’ War begins in Prague.
1623
PASCAL
June 19: Blaise Pascal born in Clermont, the son of Étienne Pascal, a minor noble and government official, and Antoinette Pascal, née Begon.
FRANCE
Erotomania first mentioned as a mental illness. Phillipe de Mornay dies.
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
August 6: Urban VIII Barberini elected pope. Would order the trial of Galileo.
Wilhelm Schickard invents the calculating clock, a first attempt at a computer.
1624
PASCAL
FRANCE
Cardinal Richelieu becomes first minister of France.
Jean-Louis Guez de Balzac publishes his Lettres.
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
George Fox, founder of the Quakers, is born in England.
War between England and Spain.
Mail service begins in Denmark.
Saint Rosalio makes a miraculous appearance at a plague in Sicily.
1624–1634
PASCAL
FRANCE
Richelieu builds the Palais-Royal in Versailles.
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
Cornelius Drebbel discovers gases.
1625
PASCAL
Birth of Jacqueline Pascal.
FRANCE
Henrietta Maria, princess of France and Navarre, marries Charles I of England.
Thomas Corneille is born.
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
James I of England dies.
1626
PASCAL
Antoinette Pascal dies.
FRANCE
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
Saint Peter’s Basilica is consecrated.
Charles I dissolves Parliament.
The Dutch settle Manhattan.
1627
PASCAL
FRANCE
Richelieu sets out to establish the supremacy of the crown.
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
The aurochs are hunted to extinction, with the last one killed in Poland.
1628
1628
PASCAL
FRANCE
Richelieu defeats the rebellious Huguenots.
Richelieu founds the Académie Française.
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
1630
PASCAL
FRANCE
Day of Dupes.
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
1631
PASCAL
Étienne moves to Paris and directs his children’s education based on the pedagogy of Montaigne. Blaise proves to be exceptional at mathematics.
FRANCE
The bell “Emmanuelle” in Notre Dame Cathedral is recast.
René Le Bossu, French critic, born.
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
Imperial troops massacre about twenty thousand people in the city of Magdeburg.
1633
PASCAL
FRANCE
Saint-Cyran appointed father confessor to the nuns at Port-Royal de Paris by Mother Superior Angélique Arnauld.
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
Trial of Galileo in Rome.
Samuel de Champlain, at the behest of Cardinal Richelieu, reclaims his role as commander of New France.
1635
PASCAL
Young Blaise revealed as a mathematical prodigy.
FRANCE
The Académie Française of Paris expands to become a national art society.
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
1636
PASCAL
FRANCE
First performance of Pierre Corneille’s play Le Cid.
Jacques Marquette, French Jesuit and explorer, born.
EUROPE AND THE N
EW WORLD
Harvard College founded in the English colony of Massachusetts.
The first ancestors of John Adams migrate to America.
Roger Williams founds Rhode Island.
1637
PASCAL
FRANCE
René Descartes publishes the Discourse on Method.
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
1638
PASCAL
Étienne goes into hiding after opposing a fiscal measure of Richelieu’s, but leaves the children in Paris.
FRANCE
Louis XIV is born.
Richelieu has Duvergier de Hauranne, the abbé de Saint-Cyran, imprisoned at Vincennes for the disruption of the peace of the church. The solitaries at Port-Royal move out to the old monastery at Port-Royal des Champs. The nuns remain in Paris.
Cornelis Jansen dies.
The French admiral d’Estrées runs his entire fleet aground in Curaçao.
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
Dutch settle in Ceylon.
Maria Theresa of Spain, future wife of Louis XIV, born in Madrid.
1639
PASCAL
Blaise’s sister Jacqueline appears in a play before Richelieu, after which he not only pardons Étienne but appoints him tax collector at Rouen.
FRANCE
Jean Racine, French dramatist and Jansenist, born.
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
Connecticut’s first constitution, “The Fundamental Orders,” is adopted.
First printing house in the United States is founded in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Montreal settled.
1640
PASCAL
Pascal family moves to Rouen. Blaise publishes his short work Essay on Conic Sections. Essay later discussed by Leibniz.
FRANCE
Posthumous publication of Jansen’s Augustinus.
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
First book, the Bay Psalm book, printed in America.
1641
PASCAL
Gilberte Pascal marries Florin Perier.
FRANCE
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
1642
PASCAL
Birth of Étienne Perier, who will later confirm the genuineness of Pascal’s Memorial. Blaise begins to work on his calculating machine, the Pascaline, to assist his father in computing taxes.
FRANCE
Cardinal Richelieu dies.
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
1642 to 1651: English Civil War between Cavaliers and Roundheads.
The Puritans close all theaters in England.
Galileo Galilei dies.
1643
PASCAL
Blaise continues work on the Pascaline.
FRANCE
Louis XIII dies. Anne of Austria becomes regent.
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
Antoine Arnauld publishes De la fréquente communion.
1644
PASCAL
FRANCE
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
Torricelli conducts his experiments on the vacuum.
1645
PASCAL
Letter to the Chancellor, dedicating the calculating machine.
FRANCE
Louis Joliet, French explorer of Canada, born.
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
English Civil War.
1646
PASCAL
Étienne Pascal and his friend Pierre Petit re-create Torricelli’s experiment on the vacuum. Blaise takes over the experiments.
Étienne is injured and is cared for by two Jansenists who convert the family to this strict form of Christianity.
April 5: Birth of Margaret Perier.
Blaise Pascal begins work on the vacuum.
FRANCE
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
The Westminster Confession of Faith.
Wars of the Three Kingdoms.
1647
PASCAL
Pascal returns to Paris for his health. Jacqueline attends to him. Visits by Descartes on September 23 and 24. Discussion on atmospheric pressure and the function of the barometer.
Controversy with Père Noël the Jesuit plenist and teacher of Descartes over the authority of Aristotle.
Birth of Marie Perier.
FRANCE
Pierre Bayle, French philosopher, born.
Denis Papin, French inventor, born.
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
Death of Torricelli.
1648
PASCAL
Conversations between Blaise Pascal and Monsieur de Rebours at Port-Royal. Much misunderstanding. Pascal returns to Clermont. Writes treatise on conic sections.
FRANCE
Sept. 1: Père Mersenne dies.
Sept. 19: Florin Perier, following Blaise Pascal’s detailed instructions, performs the great experiment on the Puy-de-Dôme. Blaise repeats experiments at the bottom and the top of the St. James tower in Paris, as well as in a tower at Notre Dame. Pascal considers the existence of the vacuum to be proved.
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
Peace of Westphalia; end of Thirty Years’ War in Germany.
1648–1653
PASCAL
FRANCE
The Fronde of the Parlement. Revolt by the Parlement and nobles against the regency.
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
1648
PASCAL
FRANCE
May: Chamber of St. Louis in Paris draws up demands for reform.
August: Arrest of Broussel; Parisians rise up against Séguier and the queen.
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
1649
PASCAL
Pascal family returns to Clermont to avoid the Fronde.
FRANCE
January: Revolt of the Parlement of Aix. The frondeurs and the French government sign the Peace of Rueil. Jansen’s Augustinus denounced at the Sorbonne.
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
January 30: Charles I of England is beheaded.
September 2: The Italian city of Castro is destroyed by the forces of Innocent X.
1650
PASCAL
FRANCE
René Descartes dies in Sweden.
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
Christopher Scheiner, great Jesuit antagonist of Galileo Galilei, dies.
1651–1653
PASCAL
FRANCE
Rise of the Ormée movement in Bordeaux.
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
1651
PASCAL
September 24: Death of Étienne Pascal.
September 27: Birth of Louis Perier.
The duc de Roannez appointed governor and lieutenant general of Poitou.
FRANCE
Jean-Baptiste de La Salle born.
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
Thomas Hobbes writes Leviathan.
Massachusetts passes laws forbidding poor people from adopting excessive styles of dress.
Maximilian I, elector of Bavaria, dies.
1652
PASCAL
Jacqueline enters the convent at Port-Royal de Paris.
Pascal begins his “worldly” period.
Letter from Pascal to Queen Christina of Sweden.
FRANCE
Michel Rolle, French mathematician, is born.
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
Cape Town, South Africa, founded.
Rhode Island passes the first law in the Americas against slavery.
John Cotton, founder of Boston, dies.
1653
PASCAL
Pascal takes journey to Poitou, accompanied by Méré, Mitton, and the duc de Roannez. Pascal writes on the geometrical and intuitive minds.
FRANCE
Jews allowed to return to France and England.
The Fronde ends.
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
February 2: New Amsterdam, later renamed New York City, is incorporated.
Coffeehouses become popular
across Europe.
1653
PASCAL
June 3: Five propositions of Jansen found in the Augustinus condemned by Pope Innocent X.
June 5: Jacqueline Pascal takes vows at Port-Royal, taking the religious name of Sœur Jacqueline de Sainte-Euphémie.
FRANCE
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
1654
PASCAL
November 23: a two-hour ecstatic vision leads to Blaise’s conversion. The account of this vision is kept in the lining of his coat at all times.
FRANCE
June 3: Louis XIV crowned at Rheims.
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
The Republican Party questions Cromwell’s power. Cromwell expels his enemies from Parliament.
December 27: Jacob Bernoulli born in Switzerland.
1655
PASCAL
January 7: Pascal takes a retreat to Port-Royal, where he defends Arnauld against the Jesuits who sought to expel him.
FRANCE
Arnauld publishes his attack on Jesuit casuistry in his Lettres à un duc et pair. Motion to expel him from the Sorbonne.
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
Battle of the Severn. Protestant militia defeats Catholic militia for control of Maryland.
1656
PASCAL
Appearance of the first of the Provincial Letters.
FRANCE
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
The pendulum clock invented by Christian Huygens.
1658
PASCAL
Pascal lectures on his apologetics to the leaders of Port-Royal.
FRANCE
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
September 3: Oliver Cromwell dies.
1659
PASCAL
Pascal comes down with the illness that will lead to his death. Works in brief periods of relief from suffering.
FRANCE
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
1661
PASCAL
Jacqueline dies. Port-Royal closed after official condemnation of Jansenism.
FRANCE
Death of Cardinal Mazarin. Priests are required to sign a formulary against Jansenism.
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
1662
PASCAL
August 17: Blaise Pascal dies in the house of one of his sisters.
FRANCE
EUROPE AND THE NEW WORLD
1670
PASCAL
Publication of the Pensées, which Pascal had worked on sporadically the last four years of his life.