Winter Kill - War With China Has Already Begun

by Gene Skellig

  These reports would have to be checked, he thought. The SS27-C’s, designed in 2007 by the Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology, were special warheads mounted on Topol M’s. Rather than MIRVs with ten warheads, as in the standard R-36MTs, these R-36 Mod-D and Mod-E missiles could only carry 3 warheads. The warheads were allocated on a 2:1 basis, with one massive 25-megaton bunker-buster Mod D paired with two 1-megaton neutron bomb Mod-Es. These special warheads were meant to be held in reserve and not used in a first strike unless specifically added to the strike package. If any of these special Topol M’s had been launched, he had to find out how this had happened.

  Another report indicated that missiles fired by France had hit American naval units in the Atlantic Ocean, and targeted some American bases in Germany. This was presumably in response to American cruise missile strikes against major population centers in France. As many as thirty American missiles had struck France. Paris itself was hit by at least three American cruise missiles. Strangely, the United Kingdom had not used any of their Trident Missiles and the locations of their six Vanguard ballistic missile submarines were unknown. England had been hit by as many as forty American missiles and seventy-five Russian missiles. He could only imagine the devastation that the tiny island nation was experiencing.

  His initial satisfaction of having hit the Americans hard in the first counter-strike was wiped-away by the next message he was handed by the white-faced Colonel who had quickly scanned the incoming report. The report was a decoded intercept of some communications between the Canadian Navy, in Victoria, and a subordinate command of the American Northern Command, US Naval Task Force 51, in Washington State. The intercept amounted to a Canadian assessment that China was attempting to hijack a large number of bulk-cargo ships from port facilities on the West Coast of Canada. The report intercepted at 1140Z, occurred six hours before the American attack was launched at 1755Z.

  As he digested the meaning of the report, he was handed another. It was an assessment of American warheads that had struck Hong Kong, Taiwan, and as many as sixty other Chinese cities. The targets had been struck with enhanced radiation neutron bombs. Neutron bombs had also been used to strike industrial targets in Korea, Japan and other Asian centers. Why would the Americans use Neutron Bombs in Asia? Hadn’t China once threatened to attack Taiwan with Neutron bombs? And how had Russian neutron bombs been launched without approval against targets in Australia, Africa and the Persian Gulf?

  When he began to put the pieces together, he had a moment of cool, clear, and completely terrifying understanding. Neutron bombs were designed with nickel and chromium casings rather than uranium or lead, he thought to himself. This allowed the neutrons generated in the atomic detonation to escape rather than being reflected back into the reaction. The resulting intense pulse of ionizing radiation would be effective at penetrating structures and vehicles, but would also result in lower yields.

  The neutrons would be quickly absorbed by air particles after having done their killing work. The effects of neutron bombs would be much less persistent than a conventional nuclear detonation. They would kill the population without destroying the equipment, buildings and infrastructure. While personnel may not die immediately from the massive dose of radiation of the neutron flux, they would die from the effects of radiation within weeks.

  These weapons could depopulate a city without rendering it uninhabitable. There would, of course, be the requirement to dispose of the rotting corpses before they spread diseases and ruined the water table. He imagined vast Asian cities standing intact, filled with corpses. President Dvorkin almost vomited when he fully comprehended the situation.

  The Chinese themselves are behind the attacks. It was the only explanation that fit. They had somehow tricked the Americans into attacking Russia and Europe, and we had no choice but to launch our counter-strike. By ensuring that their own cities were hit with neutron bombs, the Chinese would come out of this heavily depopulated, but intact, infrastructure while Europe and North America would be devastated wastelands. That fits with the intelligence report about China seizing cargo ships, he realized. After this war, crops wouldn’t grow for years so food would become a strategic weapon.

  His analysis was confirmed by a report that the American attack had been a reprisal for the Russian first strike. But there had been no Russian first strike; the data the Americans had acted on didn’t match reality. Some of the first targets destroyed in North America were destroyed by surface bursts, yet they should have been targeted by airbursts. Also, the timing was strange. Some targets were destroyed several seconds after the timing presented in the missile-tracking data. This meant that the data was contrived somehow, and the dozen or so initial blasts had been delivered some other way. They may have even been pre-positioned.

  He thought about the loss of communications between the Russian and American Presidents in the minutes before the Americans first noticed the apparently Russian missiles. The communication systems were vulnerable to computer network attack, and the physical land-line backups could easily have been sabotaged, making direct communications impossible at just the right time, he reasoned.

  “Konyets Attack!” he shouted, halting the Russian attacks. While General Matsaal began issuing direction to his staff to cancel any remaining launches and to abort the few remaining missiles in flight, President Dvorkin continued giving orders.

  “We need to order a full strike against China. Military and civilian targets. Do this immediately, before our remaining missiles are destroyed. Pay special attention to their bunkers and other prepared locations. Task our navy to locate and destroy all of Chinas naval forces, and to seize any Chinese flagged commercial shipping worldwide. Isolate and shut down the newer computers - they have been compromised by the Chinese. Use backup computers and secure land-line voice commands only. Have the Missile Control Centers program the targeting computers manually,” he ordered, demonstrating that he had not lost touch with the details of Russia’s Strategic Rocket Forces. He had spent years as Commanding General of Third Artillery Regiment before he seized power from President Putin. While the battle staff quickly responded to the orders, President Dvorkin continued speaking to the room.

  “We have all been fooled. We have gone to war with the Americans for no reason. They were tricked by the Chinese, and we in turn were provoked by the American attack. The Chinese are behind this, and are attempting to destroy the world in order to emerge supreme afterwards. They intend to seize the world’s food supplies and to move in and take control of Australia, India, the Persian Gulf and who knows where else after annihilating their populations with neutron bombs from our very own arsenals!” he shouted, enraged by the success of the Chinese deception.

  “Read these reports!” he said, looking at the Defense Minister and senior generals around the planning table. “I want all hostilities against American and NATO forces to cease immediately and for our field commanders to be told that the war with America was a terrible mistake. The real enemy is China! This has become a global war for survival, and we’re not going to let China come out of this on top!” he concluded.

  After a few minutes of frantic activity, President Dvorkin regained his composure and spoke quietly to General Matsaal.

  “Get your Staff together and prepare an update on our casualties, the American casualties, and the global situation. What countries were hardest hit? Which were left alone? What’s going on in China? Where are Chinese military units deployed? And get me Sergey Illyich. I want a briefing on the status of civil defense efforts. How badly have we been hit?” he ordered, suddenly appearing exhausted and defeated as the immensity of the disaster took hold of his soul.

  22

  dR. SUN TINGTING

  14 September: 44 Months Before NEW

  Dr. Sun Tingting was nervous. He was summoned to give a briefing to the most powerful man in Jinan Military Region. Lieutenant-General Chen Bing was likely the next Chief of General Staff of the People’s Liberation Army. If confi
rmed into office by the Chairman of the Communist Party of China, General Bing would be one of the most powerful men in the world. After all, with the United States in an economic collapse while China owned the majority of America’s debt, Sun believed that Chinese ascendancy was taking place in his lifetime. However, the science, contained in the laptop tucked under his arm as he was ushered into the briefing room, created a problem - and it was his job to lay it all out for General Bing.

  It would not be like the academic presentations that he gave every day to the post-graduate students whose grasp of climate science was his responsibility to hone.

  Dr. Tingting was chair of the Climate Science Department at Shandon University, Jinan City. Three uniformed PLA Officers had interrupted his preparation time at his small office at the Qianfoshan Campus. They had the Director of the Earth Sciences Division looking terrified at their heels, and simply informed Sun that it was time. He had dreaded this day ever since the PLA began funding his climate-modeling project five years before.

  He knew that this day would come, and had prepared the materials and rehearsed the presentation over and over again. He hoped it would never actually be required. His fear of the military was strong, but what he feared most was being believed.

  He was nervous and sweaty as he set up his laptop in the modest briefing room inside the Jinan Region Headquarters. He felt his heart racing as he tried to make himself invisible behind the small podium. He had never met a Shangjiang level General before, but he knew the meaning of the shoulder wreath and three large stars on the man’s shoulders. It was crucial to know one’s place in the order of things. So when the powerful man made eye contact with him, Sun understood who was sizing him up. General Bing was the master of his fate.

  Sun had no misconceptions that this presentation would open any doors or be in any way helpful to his academic career. Regardless of how successful his modeling software had proven to be, in this case the messenger would most likely be killed. All that was left was to deliver the presentation with the pride and dedication which Dr. Sun Tingting had lived his life.

  “Honorable Generals, esteemed Officers of the People’s Liberation Army,” he began to the small group of Generals and Colonels seated around the far end of the table. “My name is Dr. Sun Tingting. I am project chair for Climatology Modeling at Qianfoshan Campus. I am humbled and grateful for your kind invitation to provide you with this briefing on the Chiang-Lee-Tingting Model,” he started, feeling himself relaxing into the rhythm of the presentation he knew so well.

  After providing an overview of the theoretical foundation of the model, he drilled into the data itself. Four of the six independent variables required considerable explanation, which he covered at essentially the second-year university level. Surprised to see that he had not lost the interest of his audience, he watched their faces as he advanced through the power-point slides. One key slide told the whole story.

  “As you will quickly see from this seven-dimensional scatter-plot, the first three variables of Population, Time, and Aggregate Consumption are provided in a conventional manner. Then, as you go into this three-dimensional block, the points themselves are depicted in a variety of emoticons, shapes, colors and vectors indicating the Quality of Life Index, Ecological Viability Index, Biosphere Viability Index and Incipient Trend respectively.” Dr. Tingting let that sink in for a minute, before pressing the slide advance key on his wand.

  “To make it easier to see the outcomes, we can shade the Blue, Green, Red and Black categories.” He clicked each band on and off to show the differences.

  The military men had by this time figured out that an Orange band of the Biosphere Viability Index meant that the cumulative effects of human activity were degrading the biosphere in a harmful manner, but could be mitigated by reducing some of the contributing factors. A Red BVI band indicated human activity was having a severe long-term impact which could not be restored in a human lifetime.

  The Black Zone in the BVI was a theoretical point at which the ecosphere could no longer provide the minimum of essential inputs such the regeneration of oxygen and water in the atmosphere, the screening out of dangerous levels of ultraviolet radiation, and habitable temperatures in at least the milder latitudes. Simply put, a Black BVI meant extinction for the vast majority of animal species, including mankind. The Red zone meant extinction was certain, but would take time as the Incipience Vector progressed from Red to Black due to the momentum characteristics of the associated trends. A Green BVI meant that human consumption was being accommodated within the biosphere with no long-term consequence. Orange meant that things could go either way.

  The low end of the Quality of Life index, represented by “Yuck-Faced” QOL emoticons, corresponded to what philosophers termed the “repugnant conclusion” whereby an infinite number of human beings consumed the most efficient form of food production possible, essentially plain rice with algal paste and protein-rich worms to eat and water to wash it down. All resources would be devoted to basic sustenance for the largest possible number of human beings, without much biodiversity. The high end of the QOL index, of course, was characterized by humans free to enjoy a wide variety of consumptive inputs with robust biodiversity.

  None of the Time plots intersected the green BVI zone since the eighteenth century, however the Happy-Faced emoticons of the QOL index continued through the orange zone, right up to the present time. About half of these were already entering the Red zone, and all of them were in the Red within ten years.

  “Even if we scroll through the Ecological Foot-Print from the low end to the high end, it’s basically the same outcome.” Before Dr. Tingting could go on, General Bing interrupted him.

  “Total extinction of human life, along with much of the biosphere. Take us through this region-by-region,” he ordered.

  As Sun took them through the same presentation region-by-region, it was the same story. The only difference was that the emoticons were already in the Glum and Grim range for the Indian subcontinent, Africa, and much of Asia. They remained Happy and in the low end in North America, Australia and Europe, and were just starting to be Neutral to Glum in South America.

  Sun noticed the concentration on General Bing’s face. What he saw in the General’s dark eyes surprised him. He recognized the look, which he had seen in his students on occasion. It was the look of comprehension. It hadn’t taken General Bing long to get his mind around the relationships between the variables.

  “The data is inescapable,” Sun began to explain, “we will see continued over-extension of consumption with concomitant extremes in the leveraging of natural resources, reaching the limits of agricultural technologies as we move through the Orange Zone into the Red Zone. Within twenty years, only Canada, The United States, Russia and Europe will be in the Orange Zone. The rest of the world will be in the high end of the Red Zone. The planetary average will go Red within the next eight years,” he continued, to a silent room.

  “Global temperatures will rise by two degrees; however the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere will rise four-fold. This will result in increased droughts and an increased rate of snow-cap losses in the Himalaya and other ranges. The resultant loss of fresh water supplies will exacerbate an already precarious fresh water distribution system, leading to increased desertification, plant and animal diseases, and steadily decreasing regional food production. The changes are already occurring faster than the biosphere can adapt, resulting in the catastrophic Incipience Vectors you can see here.

  Food production, access to fresh water, and crop viability will be the nails in the coffin. With a population increasing from 7.2 billion today to 11 billion by 2040, the pressure on the natural resources becomes extreme. Increased mortality rates in developing countries will be offset in part by longer life expectancy elsewhere. However, we will reach this point,” Sun indicated with his pointer, “where in all cases the planet faces the exhaustion of biodiversity and a catastrophic die-off of all inter-dependent species,
” he paused before concluding. “Without biodiversity, as we are seeing in the trouble with bees and other helpful insects, food production becomes non-viable.”

  “So it will be just as people attribute to Einstein as having said?” interjected General Bing. “If the bumble-bee disappears then man will only have four years of life left. No more bees, no more pollination, no more plants, no more animals, no more man,” General Bing explained to his colleagues, some of whom were still coming to grips with the information.

  “Yes, General, quite astute. However, we will have this die-off regardless of the fate of bees. It’s a mathematical certainty.”

  For the next two minutes General Bing was silent, thinking. Sun didn’t say a word, expecting to be ordered to recalculate, to find some other outcome than the extinction of the human race. And then the General changed his tone completely, with an inquisitive look on his face.

  “So what is that Happy Grey emoticon down at the bottom right, in the lower Green band, with a horizontal vector to the right?” he asked.

  This caught Sun Tingting off guard. “Oh, I’m most embarrassed; please excuse my sloppiness, General. That’s from the baseline model used to contain the uncertainty field.” “A what?”

  “It’s a mathematical model which is used in the calculations, sort of a mathematical starting condition onto which our data was infused statistically, but the baseline should have been suppressed from this depiction,” he replied.

  “But what model does it come from?”

  “Well, it was originally taken from an old database from the 1989 study that Director Lee did on the Nuclear Winter Scenario,” Sun explained. “Dr. Lee’s mathematical model provided the core formulae for our calculations. His approach continues to be the most dynamic and expandable basis for climate science to this day. I should have suppressed it from the presentation.