Athene's Prophecy (Gaius Claudius Scaevola Trilogy)

by Ian Miller

  "I agree that that is odd," Timothy said, "and that is also a strong point in favour of Aristarchus."

  "There are just too many coincidences," Gaius shrugged. "The heliocentric theory is so much simpler."

  "I am glad you think so. So you see that now we have two models, hence we should be able to decide which applies based on logic."

  "We should?" a puzzled Gaius asked.

  "We can," Timothy said emphatically. "Something for you to contemplate. The key lies in the physics you have already learned. If Aristarchus was correct, something else should happen which, fortunately for me, it does not. Think about why something goes around in circles and see if you can work out the underlying physics."

  Chapter 15

  When Gaius walked into the room, he was surprised to see the room being almost entirely taken up by a huge table that was entirely covered by a model map. The west side was blue and flat, and presumably the sea. In the centre of the coast, towards the west, was what appeared to represent a large port city. There was a peninsula which rose up a few inches from the sea, and which overlooked a bay. On the bay a number of tiny model ships appeared to float, and a close examination of the peninsula showed tiny stone walls; the peninsula had clearly been heavily fortified. A walled city could be seen on the other side of the bay, complete with tiny buildings, a small stone temple, and outside the wall what appeared to be tiny farms. There were forested hills scattered about with roads through them, there was a river, there were two large green valleys with villages in them inland, then further inland, the forest cover lightened to give lightly treed grass-land, or at least that was how he interpreted the model. Then below the board was a box containing model soldiers, model horses, in either red or blue, and a cup with dice.

  "So, how do you like what some of your money's gone on?" Timothy asked.

  "The workmanship's quite extraordinary," Gaius gasped. "What's it for?"

  "It's a country upon which you may play war games," Timothy smiled. "We shall assume you are a Roman Legate, with one legion, and you Romans have just conquered this area. You and your troops reside safely in this fort," he continued, then looked at Gaius and asked, "You prefer red or blue?"

  "I'll be red," Gaius shrugged. "Does it matter?"

  "No," Timothy said, and picked all the red symbols from the box and placed them in the fort. "These," he said, showing Gaius ten large model soldiers, "are ten cohorts of infantry, each with six centuries. I know there are usually nine, but the first is double-sized, and you can be strictly accurate and use two models to fix the first. Any cohort can be split into centuries, and we have little soldiers to represent them, although," he added, "we know Romans can't count, and there are seldom a hundred men in a century."

  "We can count. It's just that we can't afford the full complement. Fortunately eighty Romans are easily capable of dealing with more than a hundred Greeks!"

  "I had a feeling that was coming," Timothy said, clearly pleased with himself. "You just won me a small bet."

  "Pleased to oblige."

  "Now," Timothy continued, "these two horses represent two cavalry units, we have five models representing five hundred auxiliaries, and here we have a few scouts and spies. You will deploy these according to certain rules. There is a corresponding board in the other room for your opponent and each board will show its own resources, and what is known about the others. I shall act as an intermediary, conveying the moves in one room to the other. This board here represents not what is going on, but what you are told is going on, and the two are seldom the same. Now, if one of your spies is captured, I'll throw dice to decide whether he talks, although you may never know what the outcome is. Your spy might then return and tell you lies. Now, if you look carefully at each of your spies, they each have a special mark. That gives their character, whether they are brave, whether they will try to fool captors, whether they are less trustworthy, and some special features known only to me to help decide the outcome following a dice throw.

  "You know everything about me, I know nothing about you," Gaius nodded.

  "It's fair," Timothy shrugged. "Everybody would see the legion arrive, and the word spreads. Also, legions are fairly standard, so your opponent has that advantage. You, however, have advantages he doesn't. You have a lot of money, and well-trained battle-hardened troops, and in a simple set-piece battle, the odds will favour you. There are rules on this sheet of papyrus of the possible outcomes, and the variation available to be resolved by the throw of a dice. Your opponent needs certain advantages to beat you."

  "You keep saying, 'my opponent'," Gaius frowned. "That is someone else?"

  "Yes. Your comment about my lack of military experience struck home. He once commanded three legions."

  "I see that I am expected to lose," Gaius said softly.

  "That's one way of looking at it," Timothy shrugged. "His answer would be, if you were going to lose legions through inexperience, stupidity, or whatever, it is better to lose imaginary ones on this board. Also, this is more serious than a game. Tiberius sent him. His recommendation could get you into a legion, while if he lets Tiberius know you're just plain useless, you will command nothing."

  "Then I'd better not be just plain useless," Gaius muttered.

  "Don't forget, in this game your winning is not the object . . ."

  "It isn't?" a puzzled Gaius interposed. "I would have thought . . ."

  "You will play a much better opponent than you would normally expect to meet, who will give you problems you wouldn't normally get. Also, things will go wrong through no fault of yours, and because the object is to educate you, much more frequently than usual, however, you mustn't start second-guessing. You must behave as if this were real, because the object is to see how you handle yourself. Now, the game is played like this. You announce your moves. Each piece can only move so far in a day, depending on where you go. The advantages of terrain are written here. For example, you can move about ten times further in a day by travelling on a road than through a forest, but of course you are more likely to be seen on a road. Your opponent's resources come from an unspecified place across the eastern desert, and either side can recruit local farmers. You have to maintain food supplies, you can only carry so much water, and so on."

  "A question," Gaius interrupted. "This opponent, is he from the local people, or . . ."

  "Assume the locals dislike him about as much as they dislike you."

  "I see," Gaius nodded.

  "So, your action for day 1?"

  "I try to find out what I can about the villages," Gaius replied. "I try to find out what I can from the townspeople what this opponent is like, and where he comes from . . ."

  "As yet you don't know you have an opponent," Timothy cautioned. "You have captured this fortified town and minor repairs have already been completed. You have arranged for food supplies to be drawn from this local region, and you have agreed the price. Assume the citizens of the city and its immediate environs have accepted your occupation, although they are probably not very happy about it."

  "Then I ask about the more distant region. I try to find out what I can about the villages, and if it is likely that they have something to sell, I commission some of the locals to go and buy it for me."

  "Why commission locals?" Timothy asked in a flat voice.

  "Because the villagers are more likely to trust locals," Gaius said. "If I march in with a legion, they may think I'm trying to just take everything. They would be intimidated."

  "Anything else?" Timothy nodded with approval.

  "I try to find out who knows what about the hinterland," Gaius said. "If nobody knows anything, I commission some of the villagers to explore for me."

  "Why villagers?"

  "They're less likely to be trapped by my opponent, who I don't know about," Gaius replied. "Officially, I hope I can encourage the villagers by helping them to expand their farmland, and get them on my side. I'm going to need all the information I can get, and I want as much coope
ration as I can get."

  "I see," Timothy said. "I'll go see your opponent."

  Two weeks were played, and nothing much happened, then a villager reported to Gaius that his village was under attack by a "huge" force.

  "Damn!" Gaius replied.

  "Oh?"

  "There's something I should have done," he replied.

  "That's what your opponent said," Timothy smiled. "What in particular?"

  "I should have set up signalling outposts. Anyway, now I know I have an opponent, I send two cohorts to the village, together with enough cavalry that I can guarantee to receive messages. I also start setting up signal towers on these hills," he added, as he pointed to nearby high hills.

  Eventually Gaius got his force to the village, to find villagers finally emerge from the forest, reporting that the enemy force had left in "that direction". He now realized his next mistake. While he was in this valley, the adjacent village was being pillaged. Then came back the message that they should start again.

  This time, on his first move Gaius set up the observation posts on high hills, and sent a reasonably large force to each village. When they arrived, he paid good prices for supplies, and after constructing sound fortifications to protect the villagers and their harvest he hired labour to build a road through a pass over the hills dividing them, and built signalling posts at particularly high points. Then, while the road was under construction, he sent out scouting parties to explore the hinterland.

  "Better!" came back the comment.

  Nothing much happened for some time, then came the account for the costs. The citizens would have to pay additional taxes. Timothy reported murmurs of resentment amongst the citizens.

  "Unfair!" Gaius muttered.

  "That's what the conquered tend to say about Roman taxes," Timothy said.

  "What's unfair," Gaius retorted, "is that I should know about these taxes before they do."

  Timothy left the room, and shortly returned with a note saying, 'Point conceded – you have three days before word leaks.'

  "I research the history of the region, with a record of pillaging and so on in mind. I want to know the size of the harvest this year compared with previous years."

  "The harvests are the same as usual," Timothy reported, "but this time most of it isn't stolen."

  "How much do they keep, after taxes?"

  It turned out that the peasants all had more than they would normally keep, even after paying the taxes, and nobody had been killed.

  "I tell them that," Gaius said. "They should see the point. And, of course," he added, "they should also see the legion."

  "They'll see that," Timothy nodded. "Next problem. A message comes from the empire over there demanding you send ten thousand sacks of wheat and four hundred cattle."

  "I send out scouts to see what is going on," Gaius said, "and I send back the message that Rome does not bow to intimidation."

  This time the old General appeared and shook his head sadly. "You've just started a war," he said.

  "I don't recall declaring war on anyone."

  "You've sent a response back that leaves the other king with no choice."

  "But surely you don't expect me merely to give him all that food? Rome's reputation would be in tatters if . . ."

  "I don't expect you to leave everyone with the opinion that Rome's a gutless wonder," the General shrugged, "but you don't want to give out the feeling it's just another stronger tyrant either. And more to the point, Rome doesn't need young inexperienced Legates starting off pointless wars which lead to hundreds of thousands of deaths, and, even more to the point, the loss of tens of millions of sesterces in taxes from the lands on which your battles will be fought."

  "What should I do, then?" Gaius asked with a tone of frustration in his voice.

  "The first rule of warfare," the old General said, "is to see what you can accomplish without fighting. War should be the last resort, because it's the most irreversible."

  "But surely I'm not going to just cave in? What would that achieve?"

  "Nothing," the old General agreed. "However you can engage your brain. What strikes you as odd about this demand?"

  "I don't know," Gaius admitted. "I suppose there's no evidence to back up the implied 'or else'. The fact he didn't state the back-up shows weakness."

  "What I'd find unusual is that he's demanding food." The General gave Gaius a challenging stare.

  "Why?" Gaius muttered.

  "Hah!" the old General laughed. "The first sign of ability. That 'why' was totally ambiguous, either the sign of insight if it referred to the demand, or bordering on a challenge to me if it referred to my statement. Answer your own question!"

  "There's an implication that his empire's short of food," Gaius said, realizing quickly what the 'why' should refer to.

  "So, what do you do?"

  "I suppose, ask the messenger to come back tomorrow to hear my reply, then try and find out if there's been a drought, or something."

  "You find out there's a real food shortage."

  "I offer to trade."

  "Suppose they haven't got enough to trade with?"

  "I don't know," Gaius said slowly. "I suppose . . ."

  "Go on!"

  "If they've got enough troops to fight me, they've got enough troops to fight as auxiliaries for me. They get the food, I get the troops, and they've got fewer mouths to feed anyway."

  "That's better," the General said. "Better still, try to make the king an ally. Perhaps there're signs of hope. Now, let's assume all this fails, and the king decides on war anyway. A traveller who has passed through this region here," he said, pointing to a flat area in the rear of the map, "has seen a large force being assembled, and they are heading this way."

  "Large?"

  "About twelve thousand men. Twice what you have. Now, let me go back to my board. The next round is about to begin."

  It appeared as though Gaius was merely watching the General leave, but his brain was working furiously. He had to do well here. "This is the nearest village," Gaius eventually said, pointing. "I bring my entire legion here. I also send out scouting parties to learn what I can, then march the legion out in this direction, which covers most possibilities and gets me closer."

  "We assumed you would probably do that," Timothy nodded, "so to save time, after twelve days your first scout returns to say the enemy force has entered this valley and is marching towards you."

  "I employ the marching camp technique and set myself to cover thirty kilometers per day," Gaius said. "I intend to cross these hills before I meet him and with any luck, I meet him approaching this pass."

  "You get to here, and your scouts report the enemy is approaching along this road."

  "I march and camp here," Gaius said while pointing to the board. "I send out cavalry to find and capture any enemy scouts in this region."

  "You achieve both goals," Timothy reported. "Your scouts inform you that the enemy will march along this road tomorrow. You must now set your battle plan."

  "There is a river behind them," Gaius replied. "I send out scouts to confirm they are coming. If they are, with that many men, it should take several hours for the column to march past. We lay concealed until about two thirds have passed, then we march downhill and engage here. I set up ballistae here, and here, front and rear of my attacking position, and along this ridge I set up catapults. I direct my cavalry at their baggage train, assuming it is near the rear, with one cohort for infantry support."

  "I see," Timothy said. He left the room, and returned with the old Roman General.

  "Not bad," the old man said. "Main problem is lack of specifics. You start out by sending out scouts. Fine, but what sort? Try to remember the exploratores fight as well. You indicated you had some idea at the end when you instructed your scouts to capture enemy scouts, but you lost the significance while marching. It is absolutely imperative that if you march hard to gain surprise, you must capture any enemy scouts you come into, and to do that your b
ands of exploratores must be strong enough to guarantee success. You may or may not have thought you were doing that, but unless you give explicit orders you must assume the worst will happen.

  "Now, on the last day, and perhaps the most important of all, you forget to capture enemy scouts, and worse, you check on the enemy's path, but you make no attempt to look out for unexpected forces from some different direction. One of the things you probably don't realize is that a whole legion moving is rather noisy, and the enemy don't have to get all that close to know something's on the way. Now, your final attack. There's some good material there, but again the detail is lacking. Worse, about two thirds of the enemy is not under attack . . ."

  "I'm outnumbered," Gaius interrupted. "What I am trying to do is to capture his supplies, and knock off as much of his force as possible with minimal losses. If I attack in the centre, in principle I can be encircled, if I attack at the front, the enemy can use his rear how he likes. I have to do something."

  The old General stared at Gaius, then nodded. "Your idea is promising, but operationally you are letting yourself down. Your deployment against the rear is fair enough, and you are correct that if you are grossly outnumbered the reality is you can't prevent a determined enemy getting some troops around your flanks. However, while you know you are outnumbered, your enemy doesn't. Don't credit him with divine inspiration. You must deploy so as to give him the greatest problem possible, so that in the heat of the battle, as opposed to this board game, he can't work out what's going on.

  "Now, let's look at what you've done. Your main force is merely going to march downhill and get in its own way. You have concentrated far too much force at that point. Yes, you do better by concentrating force, but there's no point in winning one place thirty times over, then finding you've given up all the advantages. Now, tell me, what were you trying to achieve?"

  "I'll demoralize them," Gaius replied, "I'll capture their supplies, and I wipe out their rear."