Elevated Threat

by William Robson

  6 PM

  Presidential speech writers must have the easiest jobs in Washington these days. The speeches have devolved into little more than redundant formulaic templates where the writer just fills in the blanks to identify a particular event. The speech writer usually starts with a personal opening paragraph to make it sound folksy. Then, they attempt to show that the President cares about the victim with a, “Our hearts go out to…” Then, show resolve by mixing in a, “We will not rest until…” And, of course, don’t forget the required strength statement of, “No matter how long it takes, the US government will be there to make those responsible pay.” Naturally, you don’t want to forget the “God bless the US” sendoff. Yep, the speech almost writes itself.

  The now ubiquitous Republican rebuttal to whatever the President has to say is similarly formulaic. Get a young photogenic senator, go back a few days or weeks, cherry-pick out some contrary comment from anyone in the administration, add in a few, “If they had only…”, or some “We firmly believe that by…” and throw in some snoopy eyes and finger wagging. Then, you have to make sure to throw in some policy position that has nothing to do with what the rebuttal is all about, just because the camera’s on, and you’re set.

  The Monday night Presidential speech which interrupted the evening news to explain the day’s events on the West Coast was no exception to the speech writer’s formula. The President did throw in one twist to add a visual change. The President was flanked at his podium by the Homeland Security Secretary and the FBI Director. Together they painted an intimidating image for the cameras. The message the President left us with was not nearly as imposing as the picture.

  “My fellow Americans. This morning, security agents from the US and Canada intercepted five container ships that were scheduled to arrive on our West Coast. Thankfully, based on previously gathered intelligence and the quick response of these security teams, we were able to prevent the contents of the ships from being distributed on our shores. When the interdiction teams examined the contents of the five ships, they discovered that each one of them had one single container on board that had been rigged with explosives. When those explosives went off, an unknown chemical agent stored inside the container was released.

  Quick action by the American and Canadian security teams enabled them to identify the situation and reduce the threat. The ships were moved a safe distance from shore and the exemplary response by the medical teams allowed them to treat the security team’s individuals that had been exposed. The quick action by our security and medical teams prevented a much more serious situation.

  Unfortunately, despite this preventative action, three members from the Canadian security teams and one US agent have succumbed to injuries sustained when the containers exploded near them. These brave agents gave their all to keep us safe. They truly are heroes. Our hearts go out to them and their families. A total of 23 other agents have been hospitalized. Fortunately, most of their injuries are not serious, and most will be back on duty serving their country soon.

  This attack demonstrates, once again, how we must always be vigilant against those that would do us harm. We have already been communicating with our international partners to discuss ways we can develop new methods of inspecting cargo shipments that are destined for our shores. Additionally, I have asked my security professionals to provide suggestions on ways we can alter our shipping procedures to ensure that cargo arriving on our shores is safe.

  Until these new procedures can be enacted we must do everything in our power to ensure the safety of all the workers who handle the cargo. Therefore, all container ships bound for U.S. or Canadian destinations that are currently at sea have been ordered to stay at sea until our security teams can verify the cargo onboard is safe. Ships destined to our shores that are not yet underway will be inspected at their port of origin before they will be allowed to leave port. Additionally, all US and Canadian Ports of entry will immediately have their security dramatically increased, and it will stay that way until we are confident that they are once again safe for shipping traffic.

  I can assure all American and Canadian citizens that we will not rest until the perpetrators of this attack on our shores have been found and brought to justice. American and Canadian security forces are diligently working with all of our international partners around the world to identify the persons or groups that created this threat on our shores.”

  What the President’s speech didn’t say, and what the Republican talking-heads quickly started reminding everyone who had ears of was that the world’s largest delay of international commerce was now underway. Worse, no one could predict how long it would be before shipping would be back to normal. Hundreds of ships would start to be queued up waiting to be searched before they could deliver goods to US and Canadian destinations. Billions of dollars would end up swallowed by the ocean.

  May 19, 2015

  New York, NY

  The impact of the President’s embargo didn’t take long to be felt. The Dow Jones closed with the largest one day loss in history. By losing 827 points it surpassed the September 2008 loss of 777. Commodity traders in Chicago were ready to start jumping out of windows. Through it all, the Republican politicians were mugging for the cameras like it was a feast in Nebuchadnezzar’s court from ancient Babylon. The Republicans blamed the administration’s lack of control. In return, the Democrats blamed the lack of funds for security on last year’s sequester. The news channels reveled in the madness. Every reporter was spouting some new angle. The doomsayers came out of the woodwork once again. The religious-right even blamed everything on the recent adoption of gay marriage laws.

  May 20, 2015

  Seattle, Washington

  Anne Kowanger’s Wednesday column linking her original reporting on the April incidents at the docks with the current attacks had her name at the top of every big time editor’s list by the end of the day. As the only credible reporter sounding the alarm back in April, she was now seen as the nation’s expert reporter on dock security. Talk show producer’s messages were already queuing up on her voicemail. It was obvious that she would be the one buying the drinks for Clyde every Wednesday. That is, if she had time to get away for a happy hour.

  Agent Andrew’s life wasn’t so simple. While he was relieved to have been given a clean bill of health, the continuing refusal of the Chinese Government to give his men unfettered access to the Mundra’s departure port in Qingdao was really pissing him off. The Chinese Ministry of State Security kept offering up low-level warehouse workers, who had merely seen the containers, as proof they were working on the case. But he was keeping the juicy information of what was really going on a tightly guarded secret. Fortunately for Agent Andrews, information from the Chinese Ministry of State Security is not the only source of Chinese secrets we have. When Agent Andrews’ boss, Agent Kathleen Suma, hurriedly called him in to a meeting he was hoping one of those alternate sources of information had come through. They did.

  A team of CIA operatives working out of Shinan district discovered that one person had rented several warehouses close to Qianwan Port and that all of the shipping containers that were used in the attack had come from one of those warehouses. So far, the operatives only had an alias for this person and no pictures yet, but they had discovered that he was a middle-aged foreigner, probably of Swedish descent. They had enough information to conclude that there was a high probability that he was the same individual who had also leased the empty warehouse (#256) in Dalian City.

  The explosives and biological teams that investigated the ships also had a report ready for Agent Andrews’ meeting with Agent Suma. Their report turned everything Agent Andrews had assumed about the containers on its head once again. The explosives used in each of the five containers was a very conventional TATP (triacetone triperoxide) explosive that was triggered with simple clock timers. The interesting bit was that the amount of explosive material used was quite small. Despite having a 20-foot container to work with, the
perpetrators had only used a two cubic foot silver case to house the explosives. The container itself had been constructed with weak points in the seams, and each included an easily breachable top hatch. Each container was sealed with a vacuum. When the explosives were triggered in the cases, the vacuum-sealed container transferred the energy to the weak points in the seams which caused them to rupture and allow the contents to disperse.

  Agent Andrews now realized that instead of the door seals being used to keep the contents hidden from detection, they were actually there to help get them exposed to the outside world. Once again, he had been led by the terrorists to accumulate a set of conclusions based on what his training told him to see, and not what they were actually doing. Whoever they were, they were certainly clever.

  The biological team’s report on the chemical agent was far less illuminating. They concluded that the chemical agent, dispersed by the explosions, was indeed a derivative of Sarin, but its chemical signature was one which no one from the forensics team had seen before. The report went on to give all the particulars about the chemical’s molecular structure and it spent considerable time on atomic level tech speak. But it was the summary that was most interesting. The conclusion was that the chemical was indeed deadly to humans, with direct exposure, but that the shelf life for it was much shorter than many other similar types of chemical weapons. The lab’s test results had demonstrated that the chemical agent was quickly diluted in solution, and the team estimated its general dispersal capability would be poor. Thus, the team estimated effectiveness of it for use as a weapon, was minimal at best. Agent Andrews went back to his office very puzzled and decided to see if Agent Spores was around for a talk.

  Agent Spores was late for a meeting he was hoping to avoid anyway so he was glad to come over to see Agent Andrews. When he got to the office, Agent Andrews was in the outside lunch area letting the sun beat down on his face.

  “Hey, Andrews. There you are. Getting some free vitamin D, I see.”

  Agent Andrews leaned forward.

  “Agent Spores, thanks for coming over. Our last talk really helped me see things in a different way. I was hoping we could do that again.”

  Agent Spores was pleased to hear he had helped.

  “Oh, sure - glad I could help. But please call me Dan.”

  Agent Andrews now looked straight at Agent Spores.

  “Fair enough, then please call me Bob. Listen, Dan, this is what’s been eating at me. I just sat through the SitRep meeting on the containers and their contents and it just doesn’t add up. Let me run some thoughts by you.”

  Agent Spores was all ears. He didn’t usually get the skinny from a top-level situational report.

  “Absolutely, Bob. Anything I can do to help.”

  Agent Andrews went straight into a recap of what they thought they knew.

  “Well, Dan, as you know, the first shipment of suspicious containers we found had all been vacuum-sealed. Naturally, this led us to believe that they were sealed to keep the hidden contents from being detected. But then we discovered that each of the containers had a chemical agent mixed into the paint, guaranteeing they would be caught by our detectors. These two actions seemed quite contrary.

  So then we made the assumption that the bad guys were really out to test the time factor of the chemical decay. This theory seemed to pan out, since the latest shipment of containers were only sent only to the more northern ports. By keeping the shipment time short, they arrived here before the chemical agent had decayed to the point that our sensors would not be able to find them.”

  Agent Spores just nodded his agreement, so Agent Andrews continued.

  “Today’s situation report concluded that the new containers were intentionally built with weak points in the welds, and that each of the containers had a small explosive charge located in the same type of briefcase we found in the earlier shipments. Then to top this off, each container had a small amount of a chemical agent similar to Sarin inside. This nerve agent has been determined by our guys to be fairly weak as far, as nerve agents go, and that it quickly disperses and loses its effectiveness.

  So basically, everything about we know about these containers is counterintuitive. They go through all the trouble to design and construct unique containers which are designed to easily rupture with a small explosive charge. With a 20-foot container at their disposal, why didn’t they pack the sucker with explosives?”

  Agent Andrews went on answering his own question.

  “The only answer is that they did not want the bomb itself to be the deadly part of the equation. So then they add to the container a toxic nerve agent. That certainly would get our attention. But they create a toxin that is not as potent as many of the commonly known toxins available in any of the dozens of stockpiles around the world. On top of that, they only put a small amount of the toxin in the containers. That guarantees that the chemical would be distributed to a few people unfortunate enough to be close by, but because the chemical agent would not spread very far, it would not create a mass event. So, tell me, Dan, with all of their skill and expertise in weaponry and the obvious support they have by someone with deep pockets, why would they design and execute such a minimally effective weapon?”

  Agent Spores had been listening intently. Listing out the facts and using common sense from the point of view of a trained FBI agent, the facts did seem counterintuitive. After pondering the questions for a while, Agent Spores came up with a contrarian point of view.

  “Well, Andrews -I mean, Bob. I think you’re right about that assessment. However, I wonder if you are thinking about this the wrong way. What I mean is that under normal circumstances the bomb itself and the carnage it leaves behind is the whole goal behind its construction. Just maybe, these guys are smart enough to know that a bomb’s reach, even one with a chemical agent, is always limited to how far the concussion wave can reach. What if their intended reach is much farther?

  Perhaps the weapon itself is not what mattered at all. Maybe it was our reaction to the weapon and the possibility of more on the way that was actually the goal. Maybe they were out to affect our shipping commerce. Just look at what this limited attack, and the fear that has come with it, has done to the stock and commodities markets.”

  Agent Andrews was mentally chewing on this idea when Agent Spores added some more options to consider.

  “It’s even conceivable that this was just another operational field test of the chemical itself. Maybe they wanted to see if we could detect this new version of it. Perhaps the next round of containers would be fully loaded and have bigger explosions. Of course, it is also possible this was just an even more elaborate distraction to keep us focused on shipping while they went after something even bigger somewhere else.”

  Both men sat back and thought for a moment before Bob answered.

  “You know Dan, for some reason your rational made me think back to the Y2K scare. The event itself was a non-starter but the hype and build-up for it had us all looking over our shoulders and cost us billions of dollars because we were caught up in all of the “what ifs” the event caused. Maybe these terrorists are even smarter than we thought. Maybe they are trying to direct a scenario that has implications that are way bigger than any bombs and chemicals alone can accomplish.”

  Agent Spores felt a chill go down his spine.

  THE MACHINES TAKE OVER

  Name: Geno Pastori (Note: Name was changed in 2012 from Tselmeg Baizhanuly).

  Age: 27

  Nationality: First Generation US

  Education: University Of Washington. Majored in Computer Science, minored in Finance.

  Professional History: Last known position was for iBit.com as internet security chief. Spent two years with the Nasdaq OMX Exchange in Sweden (No official word on duties – believed to be creator of the exchanges anti-intrusion software).

  Family history: Kazakhstan, Father (Sasha Baizhanuly) Software Developer, Mother (Mary Baizhanuly), Brother (Alexander Baizhanuly).
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  Current whereabouts: Unknown

  Current watch-list status: Red

  Name: Alexander Baizhanuly

  Age: 27

  Nationality: US

  Education: Stanford University. Major studies, Computer Science.

  Professional History: Unknown. Possible association with the hacker group Anonymous.

  Family history: Kazakhstan, Father (Sasha Baizhanuly) Software Developer, Mother (Mary Baizhanuly), Brother (Geno Pastori).

  Current whereabouts: Unknown

  Current watch-list status: Red

  June 5, 2015

  The image that readily comes to mind when someone mentions the New York stock exchange is one where traders in color-coordinated jackets stand shoulder to shoulder on the trade floor yelling out buy or sell instructions. While that image does give the impression that human interaction is still in control of the process, nothing could be farther from the truth. The reality of the trading business is not nearly as comforting. In today’s financial world, speed is king, and humans just cannot keep up. Deciding which trades to make and then getting the trade request to New York first is how you make money in today’s Wall Street world.

  HFT’s, or High Frequency Trading computers, utilize preprogrammed algorithms to decide the trades of millions of shares of stocks in the blink of an eye. Before a human can even comprehend the basis of the situation that caused the HFT’s trades to take place, the money has already been moved. HFT algorithms are programmed to follow various strategies, such as, trading ahead of index fund rebalancing, trend following, pair’s trading, arbitrage, and many others. Once they decide what they want to do, they make their moves at the speed of light. The humans just watch the results and look for left over crumbs.

  If you have money in the market, you can only sit back and hope you have placed your bets with the correct computerized master. Yes, these electronic masters truly hold our collective retirement futures in their unfeeling electronic hands.