Wake-up Call: 2035

by Robert J. Traydon

  What was strikingly obvious, however, was the slow but steady warming of the globe over the last 250 years. Yusoara was quick to point out that the current rate of global warming was significantly higher than any previous warming cycle recorded during the last 50 000 years. Payton noticed that the average temperature was now nearing 3°C higher than recorded in 1785 CE – pre-industrial times.

  She continued, “Your planet’s fundamental atmospheric composition is highly susceptible to manipulation. Even the slightest alterations could cause runaway degradation that would ultimately render the planet completely uninhabitable. All life, including human life, would cease to exist. We have case studies of once-inhabited planets that are now lifeless as a direct result of atmospheric alteration and subsequent environmental implosion.

  “It is at this stage that I must emphasise that space is something that should be feared by your species far beyond all other fears. It has one single certainty – and that is death itself. In the same way that your early seafaring explorers respected and feared the vast oceans of your planet, so too, should you respect and fear space. It claims every last victim that is not adequately prepared for it … and to be direct, your species is not ready for independent long-term survival in space.”

  Yusoara paused and then spoke earnestly, “I must warn you that your atmospheric degradation is set to dramatically worsen, since there are over 1 000 fossil fuelled power plants forecast to come online within the next 10 years. The extra emissions from these, added to the emissions from the existing power plants, will only accelerate the already fast approaching environmental collapse.”

  The Principals were well aware that most of their efforts to curb global emissions had failed. Nations had good intentions when signing emission reduction accords but the detrimental effects on economic growth almost always stalled their implementation. The world needed cheap power and the only way to satisfy that demand was to build coal, oil and gas fired power plants, even in the full knowledge that air pollution was slowly suffocating the planet.

  She continued, “Your global fleet of fossil fuelled power plants and corresponding smoke-stack industries should be regarded as a fleet of planet destroyers, since that is exactly what they are. They generate over 70% of the total carbon dioxide emissions produced each day and are largely responsible for the Earth’s accumulated atmospheric degradation realised to date. They are the foundation of the problem and yet, against all rational thinking, you continue to operate and build them.

  “I want to stress the importance of all these graphs since they highlight the core reasons why your planet is on the brink of environmental collapse. This situation cannot be ignored by your species any longer and immediate action is required.”

  The Principals had been attentive throughout the presentation taking in all the information. Receiving an ‘external perspective’ on humanity’s behaviour had had a profound and enlightening effect on them.

  Yusoara took her seat and the Empress indicated for Warion to continue.

  10:20 a.m. Observatory: Earth’s Future – Projection (2035 to 2148)

  Warion stood and motioned towards the hologram. The two-dimensional map of the Earth became a three-dimensional globe again, rotating slowly in the centre of the chamber.

  “We will now show you a future projection time sequence visual of the Earth. It takes into account all historical data up to this point in time and demonstrates the future events that will unfold should humankind continue on its current course. This takes into consideration your ramp up of renewable energy initiatives, your overall annual escalation in fossil fuel combustion, the rate of your technological advancement, and also the prevailing attitude of humanity towards the environment.

  “To be clear, our future projection is accurate to within a margin of 5% and by our calculation, you have 22 years left before your planet reaches its environmental implosion point … or as you so diplomatically refer to it, ‘environmental tipping point’.”

  He scanned the eyes of the Principals and then continued, “You may be wondering on what knowledge we base this projection and I will inform you. The Exploration Division has had the unfortunate experience of witnessing various inhabited planets collapse as a result of both natural and unnatural disasters. From these events we obtained reliable benchmarking reference data regarding atmospheric tolerance to external factors, and the speed at which atmospheres deteriorate when these tolerance levels are exceeded. Proven algorithms have been incorporated into our prediction models, to forecast very precisely, the ‘environmental tipping point’ date and the duration of the subsequent environmental collapse, for your planet.”

  The year counter reappeared showing -100 years (1935 CE) above the globe. Adjacent to the rotating globe were all the graphs that Yusoara had dealt with earlier.

  The TSV began and the counter started rolling, playing the century leading up to the future projection. As it passed 0 years (2035 CE), the lines on all the graphs continued into the future, as did the changes to the Earth’s surface and atmosphere. Both urban and agricultural sprawl could be seen continuing at an alarming rate. At +22 years (2057 CE), Warion paused the TSV and spoke.

  “Here we have officially breached the Earth’s environmental tipping point. This marks the precise moment your planet’s atmospheric equilibrium falters and its weather control capability, that previously regulated global temperatures, disintegrates irretrievably. Environmental collapse is now unavoidable.”

  He pointed towards the display and the TSV resumed. The year counter ticked over.

  From +22 years (2057 CE) onwards, everything began to change. The human population graph flattened out and then started a steady descent. At +50 years (2085 CE) the population began to plummet until it struck the zero horizontal axis at +62 years (2097 CE), indicating a calamitous die out. Within 40 years of the tipping point being breached, human life on Earth was effectively no more.

  Warion commented, “I must warn you that during this human demise, your people will face indescribable despair and suffering. Sea levels rise at unprecedented speed, submerging huge swathes of densely populated land. Coastal and low level inland cities are all flooded and washed away. Global weather patterns become highly unpredictable and the changes cause numerous superstorms, droughts and floods. What remains of animal and plant life starts to die as the atmospheric composition begins to change. Oxygen levels reduce while carbon dioxide and methane levels continue to increase. Average temperatures around the world rise steadily as global warming takes full effect.

  “Fortunately, humans no longer exist on Earth by the time sea level rises by 60 metres. This happens when all the remaining ice across the planet has completely melted away, leaving the Earth ice-free for the first time in millions of years.”

  The graphs demonstrating land conversion, ocean disturbance and atmospheric alteration, all continued to climb steadily as post-human environmental deterioration spread.

  The TSV hologram of Earth continued to evolve in tandem with the year counter. The outlines of the continents shrank drastically as the rising ocean spread inland, drowning everything that was still alive in its path. Wildfires began to rage across numerous continents as the combination of dead organic material, soaring temperatures and high winds fuelled the fires’ wide-spreading destruction. The atmosphere, which was originally clear with white cloud, began to turn an opaque brown-beige colour with increasingly thick neon blue streaks.

  All the land-based species population graphs continued to cascade down to the zero line, indicating mass-extinction. Water-based species showed steady decline, some to the zero line. During that same period, the species extinction graph rocketed upwards as millions of species succumbed to the growing hostility of the world’s environment*.

  [* It is estimated that 75% of the world’s total number of species are land-based, while 25% are water-based.]

  As the TSV continued on to +113 years (2148 CE), the graph indicated 83,5% species extinction (99,8% for lan
d-based species and 34,7% for water-based species). Within just 91 years of the environmental tipping point being surpassed, all non-microbial life on land had been brought to an abrupt end.

  10:25 a.m. Observatory: Earth’s Future – Projection (2148 to 2200)

  Warion pointed towards the holographic rotating globe and spoke, “The atmospheric discolouration you are seeing is the cumulative deadly greenhouse mixture of smoke, carbon dioxide, methane, and water vapour. The methane is in fact the catalyst that precipitates your planet’s environmental tipping point. Currently, it is being released from your multitude of livestock and more significantly, from vast belts of permafrost that serve as gigantic methane reservoirs.

  “These reservoirs are located predominantly in the melting Arctic Region. Their release of methane became noticeable soon after the turn of the century, and is gathering speed as escalating carbon dioxide levels continue to raise global temperatures. Once global temperatures reach a certain point, the release of methane from the melting permafrost starts to accelerate rapidly.”

  He paused briefly, then continued, “Methane is a greenhouse gas that is 16 to 25 times more potent at trapping heat within the atmosphere, than carbon dioxide. Temperatures rise even further causing the rapid melting of ice cover, especially in the Polar Regions. As the ice melts, so the surface area of heat-reflecting white is lessened, leading to even more heat from the Sun being absorbed by the Earth. This exacerbates the already rising global temperatures, which in turn causes all the remaining permafrost to melt, releasing all its methane into the atmosphere in a decade-long mega-bubble. It’s a vicious and unstoppable cycle … that can only be stopped by making sure that it doesn’t gain critical momentum!

  “Environmental scientists across your world, including Doctor Payton here, are all well aware of this phenomenon and refer to it as the ‘runaway greenhouse effect’. Even though it has been brought to the world’s attention, no-one in power appears to be taking it as seriously as they should.”

  Warion called up numerous live counters adjacent to the graphs, indicating the current volumetric production rates of various pollutant gases including carbon dioxide and methane. The volumes per day were staggering and rising steadily. He noted that the production rates took into consideration both the direct production from manmade facilities, and also indirect production from natural sources. The volumetric counter which showed ‘methane gas release’, was highlighted in red.

  He spoke, “Be aware that there are over 50 gigatons of methane in these permafrost reservoirs that could potentially be released into your atmosphere over a very short timeframe. This is the perfect storm that will render this planet completely lifeless.”

  Payton was aware of the highly publicised ‘Methane Time Bomb’, but it was widely regarded to be just one of many elaborate environmental doomsday theories.

  Warion continued, “Not even with our advanced technologies are we able to save planets after they have been tipped into their implosion phases. Once the environmental tipping point is breached, it’s all over. There is no magic wand that we can wave at a planet to miraculously fix it. Understand that even our superior technology has limitations.”

  The TSV and associated graphs continued as the year counter ticked on from +113 years (2148 CE) onwards. Global temperatures soared as a result of the reinforcing greenhouse positive feedback loop. The TSV hologram of the Earth showed the catastrophic effect as the oceans and inland lakes began to boil away until they were completely dry.

  During this period, the extinction graph continued to rise as even the remaining microbial species became extinct. The graph then tapered and flat-lined indicating comprehensive extinction of all species across the entire planet. The last of the species to die were those that had lived undisturbed for time indeterminate, in the ocean’s greatest depths. This was where the TSV stopped: at +165 years (2200 CE)

  Warion spoke, “Not even the most resilient of all living organisms on this planet will survive this catastrophic collapse. The Earth’s environment is now completely uninhabitable.”

  At 2200 CE, all that was left of the blue planet was a brown, barren wasteland of devastation, rock and sand. Still distinctly visible were the familiar outlines of the once inhabited continents. With the oceans gone, enormous previously invisible mountain ranges and equally immense canyons were now exposed, and could be seen in startling detail – for the first time in billions of years. The planet was now devoid of all its original life and colour. It had become nothing more than another lifeless ball of rock; a mere shadow of its former glory.

  It was shocking for the Principals to see that in just 165 years, all the magnificent abundance and diversity of life that the Earth had so diligently supported and allowed to evolve over the last four billion years, was gone … obliterated*.

  [* If we consider the beginning of the Earth’s projected end to be the Industrial Revolution, which conveniently coincides with the human population reaching 1 billion (1785 CE), then one could assume that it took humanity just 250 years to destroy life that had taken 4 000 000 000 years to evolve. This is equivalent to just three seconds destroying a year’s worth of evolution … an evolutionary demolition.]

  Warion spoke, “Your once beautiful living planet, is now dead.”

  Edward Payton was astounded to see that the Supreme Beings’ future projection matched almost exactly what environmental scientists referred to as the ‘Venus Syndrome’*. He felt a shiver of fear at the prospect.

  [* The ‘runaway greenhouse effect’ differs from the more diplomatically termed ‘runaway climate change effect’, in that it refers to the catastrophic and permanent change in climate from its original state (as is believed to have happened on Venus), rather than the steady change in climate until a new, yet stable equilibrium is established. The potential for this new equilibrium to be habitable, especially for human life, is negligible.]

  Warion explained that only a few thousand human beings might survive until the end of the 21st century. They would likely be living in Earth-based underground isolation bunkers, lunar colonies, or space-arks, that would need to have been built prior to the human population becoming extinct in the natural environment. He went on to say that the surviving humans would in all probability not live beyond a decade on Earth, or a century in space; especially in light of humankind’s technological immaturity in terms of ‘perpetual artificial life support’.

  He spoke, “Even cryogenically frozen human embryos would deteriorate beyond usability before the turn of the millennium … which only reiterates my point that not a single human being would survive this environmental catastrophe.”

  After a long pause he continued, “Consider what you are doing to this incredible planet that so conveniently keeps you alive and perpetuates your survival. Think about what you are doing to all the wonderful creatures that share this planet with you. Contemplate what you are doing to yourselves and your generations of children to follow.”

  The Principals sat frozen in their seats, most of them understanding for the very first time, the seriousness of what they had just heard. They were stunned by the speed at which the Earth’s environmental collapse was predicted to unfold. It was human nature to overlook a problem until it was actually a very serious problem, but by then it would be too late. This was the inevitable truth that humankind would have to face … there was simply no escaping it.

  10:30 a.m. Earth: White House

  Congressman Greenfield had, by this time, been sitting in the waiting room for well over an hour. He had not moved from his seat by the window, captivated by the commotion unfolding outside the White House. Judging from the rapid influx of Secret Service agents and National Guard soldiers, as well as the unannounced arrival of various high ranking government officials … something big was going down.

  Just then, in the far distance, he saw the presidential helicopter sweeping over the Washington, D.C. skyline. It was being escorted by two Apache helicopters. Moments later it landed
on the lawn in front of the White House. Greenfield wondered if he would see President Jameson emerge from the helicopter, but to his great surprise, it was Vice President McKenzie. He watched McKenzie disembark and then exchange salutes with Secret Service Agent Walker, who was standing by to meet him. They spoke briefly before Agent Walker ushered the Vice President towards the White House entrance.

  This struck Greenfield like a lightning bolt, and his growing suspicion that President Jameson could be missing had, in his opinion, just been confirmed. The outside commotion of agents and soldiers was obviously a frantic search effort to try and find her, and the Vice President’s arrival was likely in response to the situation – he would of course be expected to assume President Jameson’s duties in her ‘absence’. This was the only theory that could possibly explain what he had experienced earlier, and everything else that had happened since then.

  How humiliating it would be for them if they had ‘lost’ the President of the United States … and in the White House of all places. The Secret Service and the United States would be the laughing stock of the world.

  Greenfield had been dating an attractive young lady, Helen Dealy, for just over three months. He was concerned that his affection for her was not entirely reciprocated, but she showed just enough interest to make the relationship worth pursuing. She was an aspiring young journalist working for the Washington Post, but was struggling to get her career off the ground. This had potential to be the story of a lifetime … and maybe their relationship would take off if he gave her a tip-off.

  He flicked the screen of his personal mobile phone and pressed the ‘Helen’ icon. He listened to the ringing intently, waiting for her to answer. He couldn’t wait to hear her excitement.

  5. ULTIMATUM

  |EDT| 10:30 a.m. Observatory: Environmental Restoration