Wake-up Call: 2035

by Robert J. Traydon

  Zhuge continued in a solemn tone, “… but that is not to say that it hasn’t claimed many innocent victims and caused much despair, especially in its early years. We all look back in sorrow at the dreadful side effects of the policy’s initial crude implementation. I am the first to admit that the Chinese people endured much anguish during that time, since I myself lived through it.”

  He then emphasised, “But, I must assure you that we have come a long way since then, and our current, modern population management policy has been refined to the extent that cases of grievance are extremely rare. Broad-based education, wide distribution of family planning centres, freely available contraception, incentivised sterilisation, and world-class health care to ensure a very high survival rate of children, all played a significant role in our population’s gradual acceptance of the policy into our way of life.

  “It took time, but today the precedent of small families has been firmly entrenched throughout Chinese society. I would like to think that if a referendum were to be held across our nation, then the vast majority of our people would vote in favour of the policy.

  “If nations choose to adopt our latest population management policy, their citizens should be spared many of the sufferings that our people experienced while the policy evolved into its current form.”

  The Chinese President then explained the fundamental principles and structures of the overall one-child population management policy. He went on to describe recent successful campaigns that had been widely implemented and positively received by the Chinese population. It was both fascinating and enlightening to listen to. There were many unpublicised aspects and advantages of the policy that were completely unknown to many in the audience, and by the end of his description, dignitaries were already beginning to accept its genuine viability.

  President Zhuge then informed the dignitaries that a copy of the population management policy had been uploaded onto their tablets for their perusal and use, if they so wished. He closed by saying, “I hope that every world leader here today will give this policy the due consideration it deserves.”

  The Brazilian President returned to the lectern as Zhuge took his seat. The noticeable silence across the auditorium suggested that the Chinese President’s summary had made its desired impact.

  President Carrera followed on by describing an exceptional campaign which had been launched in Brazil five years earlier, known as the Unplanned Pregnancy Protection Imprint. Brazilian researchers had made a cutting-edge biogenetic breakthrough 14 years prior, when they worked out a way to temporarily impede a woman’s fertility and thus prevent pregnancy. Women would not notice any difference in the normal functioning of their body, however, their reproductive capabilities were effectively placed into a neutral state thus protecting them from pregnancy. Unlike previous, old-fashioned and sometimes unreliable contraception methods, the protection imprint had a 100% success record with no short-term or long-term side effects.

  Five years of testing had proved that the fertility gene could be placed into an ‘active’ or ‘passive’ state, with the subjects being able to fall pregnant when the fertility gene was active, and not being able to when the fertility gene was passive. People could still have children, with the only key difference being that they could only have children when they made the specific decision to do so. The low cost and simple nature of the programme also made it particularly appealing.

  The campaign was still in its nascent stages and thus far, only 10 million woman across Brazil had willingly undergone the protection imprint procedure. Almost three million women had requested to be moved back into the active state and had subsequently borne children. All had chosen to revert back to the passive state immediately after giving birth. The pioneering technology had effectively relieved this sample group of the population of unplanned pregnancies, which constituted a staggering 46% reduction in pregnancies within the sample. The statistic showed just how many pregnancies had been unplanned, prior to the introduction of the protection imprint technology. Best of all, the sample group’s reduced population growth rate had been achieved with no impact on their civil liberties.

  This campaign was regarded as being a resounding success with positive feedback being received from volunteers right across the country. But one major aspect of contention remained … the predominant Catholic population had been advised by the Pope not to let their government tamper with their bodies’ God-given purity. Even though this new method was leagues ahead of other contraceptive methods, it was still not regarded as acceptable to many non-progressive religious groups.

  Most of the dignitary heads of state were aware that Brazil had been experimenting with some kind of unplanned birth prevention technology, but had always regarded it as too controversial to investigate. Investigation might be construed by their respective electorates as endorsement, and that alone could lose them an election.

  The dignitaries were all very impressed with how far the technology had come. Even the Pope herself cast a second thought towards the relevant benefits of the technology. Her sister had five children of her own and was now reluctantly pregnant with her sixth, as a result of her devout Catholicism.

  Apparent to everyone in the auditorium, was that people’s views had for so long been plagued by the abhorrent stigma of population management, that no time was taken to keep abreast of its modern advances. Even the media paid little attention to it. If there was ever a time for world leaders to pull their heads out of the sand, that time was now.

  Many of the dignitaries admitted for the very first time in their lives, that there might well be merit in the campaigns that had been presented to them. Considering the policy advances made in China and the technological advances made in Brazil, there was sure to be a humanitarian formula that the world’s general population would accept. China and Brazil had set the benchmark and were at the forefront of implementation. It was now time for all other nations to ask for their guidance and leverage their expertise.

  With the touch of a button on the lectern, the Brazilian President uploaded a comprehensive information brochure together with the technology’s design blueprints, onto the dignitaries’ tablets. She recommended that her country’s technological breakthrough could go a long way in assisting all other nations in complying with the Ultimatum’s population targets. She went on to assert that the technology patent would be made available to the world at no cost, to mitigate fears of ulterior motives and also reaffirm that her nation had no intention of profiting from the technology.

  The tough morning session was brought to a close just in time for midday lunch. It had been unexpectedly successful with the dignitaries proactively engaging throughout. What the Brazilian President had tried to underline was that a huge amount of population management compliance could be achieved with minimal effort and funding. It was all about mind-set and education, which needed to be supported by unwavering leadership.

  The Principals were happy with the progress made at this stage and were also encouraged by the dignitaries’ mounting buy-in. President Carrera’s facilitation of the proceedings had been exceptional and worthy praise was passed on to her for it.

  1:00 p.m. Earth: Summit – Day 3 (Establishment of GCMA)

  The afternoon session was led by the Arab League Secretary-General, Shafik Nazam. Soon after proceedings got underway, Nazam proposed that a Global Compliance Monitoring Agency, referred to as the GCMA, be established. This agency would be responsible for monitoring worldwide compliance with the Ultimatum.

  Nations would be required to submit weekly ‘Ultimatum compliance progress reports’ to the GCMA and the agency would in turn, be responsible for verifying the content of the reports by performing independent compliance assessments and measurements. The GCMA would then provide weekly feedback to all nations: highlighting discrepancies between the submitted figures and the assessed figures, and also flagging actual and potential compliance deviations. This feedback would enable nations to carefully manage the
ir compliance progress, identify where the compliance problem areas might be, and take immediate action to deal with them as they arose. This system would invariably prevent nations from perpetuating a state of non-compliance by claiming ignorance.

  It was decided that a corrective measure programme be drafted and instituted, to deal with any non-compliant nation. It would define a series of measures that would need to be implemented by the contravening nation, to address its specific areas of non-compliance. Should the nation’s non-compliances persist, then a series of political, economic and trade sanctions would be advised by the GCMA. These would then be imposed on the nation in question by the greater international community. The sanctions would escalate in severity for as long as the nation’s state of non-compliance continued. As a last resort, serially offending nations would be comprehensively isolated from all global affairs.

  It was then agreed that a GCMA ‘Environmental Restoration News Channel’ be launched for worldwide television broadcast. This news channel would be solely dedicated to environmental affairs, and be used to communicate and evaluate the weekly global compliance results. This would allow nations to compare their progress against other nations, keep track of the world’s overall compliance progress, and also keep up to speed with the latest global environmental news and information.

  The GCMA’s monitoring scope was then debated at length. There were numerous conflicting views and it was evident that many heads of state were not comfortable with the idea of divulging the full extent of compliance progress information required. As such, the quality of the debate began to deteriorate and tempers flared around the auditorium.

  Nazam called for calm. “Need I reiterate that our lives are all at stake here? External intervention is a reality that is lurking just around the corner, and if we don’t agree on the GCMA’s monitoring scope within the next few hours, then our window of opportunity to do so will slip away from us. We cannot expect the GCMA to be immediately perfect, but we will at least have a workable framework in place to set things in motion. The GCMA’s scope can then evolve as we learn and move forward.”

  While the debate raged on as background noise, Edward Payton watched the quietly whirring refreshment drones flying through the air delivering snacks and beverages to the dignitaries. It crossed his mind that the prospect of the world ending as a result of a full- scale thermo-nuclear war, was potentially more appealing than the reality of facing an environmental collapse. The former would be relatively quick, while the latter would be slow and drawn out … prolonging the suffering and inevitable end.

  After an exhaustive effort by everyone, a preliminary monitoring scope was finally agreed upon. The dignitaries did not appreciate the idea of a ‘big brother’ style agency constantly watching over their shoulders, but it was obvious that there was no other option. There would be nowhere to hide their non-compliance, and this prospect scared them. The GCMA’s core structure and roll-out were then discussed, with consensus eventually being reached through a majority vote.

  Secretary-General Nazam spoke, “I want to stress that we should all strive to comply with the Ultimatum not just to avoid action being taken by the GCMA, but more importantly, to save our planet and prevent remediation. I can assure you that the Galactic Federation’s remediation will make the GCMA’s punitive measures look decidedly benign – so it is in the best interest of every nation to work with the GCMA as openly and honestly as possible.”

  Even though majority consensus had been reached regarding the GCMA, concern pervaded as to whether nations would take the Ultimatum and the agency seriously at all.

  The session was brought to a close shortly thereafter at 7:20 p.m. The dignitaries were spent, and descended on the restaurant to process their thoughts. The Principals did not have that luxury. They retired to their meeting room and ran through the agenda for the following day.

  The Principals regarded the third day’s progress as the most successful thus far and could see the attitudes of many dignitaries changing in their favour. Most were starting to realise that if there was ever going to be a time for the world to come together and rewrite the future, then that time was now. With just two days to go, they were finally heading in the right direction.

  The fundamentals of the compliance monitoring scope and structures would be drafted that evening. They would then be incorporated into the preliminary draft of the Ultimatum Compliance Treaty, which had been steadily compiled during the course of the summit by a multinational team of treaty and protocol specialists, drawn from the dignitaries.

  The treaty would need to be presented and finalised the following day. The goal was to have the final document ready for the signing ceremony scheduled for 10:00 a.m. on Friday, Day Five. The signing of the treaty by the Principals and dignitaries would demonstrate their commitment to unite the world population in this global effort to comply with the Ultimatum, and accept accountability to the Global Compliance Monitoring Agency. The treaty would force nations to implement the conditions and achieve their targets as far as possible, and would hold them accountable for any failure to do so. The corrective measures programme related to non-compliance would also be included in the treaty, so that every nation knew what consequences they would face if they failed to comply.

  The Principals focused all their remaining energy on the finalisation of the treaty’s preliminary draft and eventually got to bed in the early hours of the following morning. Day Four was set to be another tough day. It was a daunting prospect, getting 500 dignitaries to reach consensus on an unprecedented treaty, but the Principals knew that they could only try their very best … and at the same time hope for a miracle.

  7:00 a.m. Earth: Summit – Day 4 (Presentation of Treaty)

  On the morning of Day Four the Principals were informed that 21 dignitaries were refusing to attend in a declaration of protest against the Principals and the summit’s intentions. The Principals did not let their non-attendance bother them, as a 96% attendance rate was far more than they had been expecting by the time the fourth day of the summit arrived anyway. The absentees had fortunately not threatened to leave the hotel.

  The African Union Chairperson, Jamba Mabunda, was ready to give a detailed overview of the proposed Ultimatum Compliance Treaty. Having a PhD in Law and Public Policy, made him the most suitable Principal to explain its content to the dignitaries and then field their questions.

  Proceedings began at 7:00 a.m. and the dignitaries were finally introduced to the treaty. Mabunda guided them through each of the sections contained within the 120-page document. It contained many references to the Ultimatum where more specific information regarding its register of conditions and targets could be found. The Ultimatum document itself, was included as an addendum to the treaty package.

  The Chairperson stressed that the Ultimatum Compliance Treaty was not to be viewed in the same light as any other previously signed treaty or protocol. This was a resolute pact between all nations confirming their unwavering commitment to planet Earth’s environmental restoration. It represented a pledge made in good faith that all nations would implement the Ultimatum’s conditions, achieve its targets, and be accountable to the Global Compliance Monitoring Agency.

  The dignitaries all realised that the global benchmark of acceptable environmental behaviour was set for a dramatic shift, and that eco-unconscientious nations, which currently enjoyed restriction-free trade, would very soon come under scrutiny and pressure from the GCMA. Many heads of state were upset by the apparent unfairness of the whole situation. It was scandalous that nations were suddenly expected to comply with all these conditions and targets that just one week before would have been deemed either unnecessary or unconstitutional. The sensitivity of this issue was raised time and again during the session.

  The dignitaries had to be brought to order on several occasions by Mabunda. He was forced to remind them of the repercussions that would be faced if everyone did not pull themselves together and take the core objectives of the
treaty seriously.

  Frustrated, he eventually exclaimed: “Uniting the world to deal with the Ultimatum and our environmental situation will not be possible without this treaty – it is absolutely essential!”

  Mabunda then highlighted the fact that every leader was bound to face a high degree of outrage and resistance from their respective constituencies, but that it was their duty to make sure that every person fully understood what was at stake and that the treaty was in place for their own good. He added that just because something had been acceptable in the past, did not necessarily mean that it would be acceptable in the future.

  The Chairperson gave the example of human slavery, which had been accepted worldwide for millennia, but was ultimately abolished. The time had now come for environmental marginalisation to be abolished as well. The former had incited a civil war in the United States and the latter would hopefully not incite numerous others around the world. The comparison between slavery and environmental marginalisation held emotive relevance, and the dignitaries appreciated the comparison.

  But sentiments were swinging this way and that as the dignitaries tried to grasp the enormity of what would be expected of them if they signed the treaty. Implementing the Ultimatum and then managing the compliance thereto, would be a huge undertaking. Even with the backing of the GCMA, there would be many known and unknown risks associated with the challenge.

  Mabunda completed his overview and explained that the afternoon session would be devoted to finalising and voting on the stipulations within the treaty. Even though the treaty was completed in its generic format, there were still numerous contentious areas that needed resolution. The Principals were, however, optimistic that it could be achieved after the reassuring response to the morning session. Disputes had been comparatively few and far between suggesting that the dignitaries were finally coming to terms with the inescapable reality of the situation.