Hidden History: The Secret Origins of the First World War.

by Gerry Docherty

  Reassured by support from across Europe, Berchtold came to the logical conclusion that he was expected to punish Serbia for the crime of Sarajevo. Other governments, even the entente governments, appeared to approve the need for retribution.28 Indeed, the Austro-Hungarian ministerial council was concerned that if they did not take strong action, their own Slav and Romanian subjects would interpret it as weakness.29 They agreed to make stringent demands on Serbia. Nothing else would stop their vicious intrigues. The die was cast, but few in Britain knew that the dice were even rolling.

  A number of interlocking steps were being taken secretly in Britain so that war would not catch the nation unprepared. An apparently unrelated debate took place in the House of Commons on 7 July that was fundamentally engineered to strengthen both naval supplies and the British control of the route to India before anyone embarked on war. Winston Churchill, backed strongly by his ministerial colleague Sir Edward Grey, steered the government’s Anglo-Persian Oil Company bill through Parliament, oblivious to the loud objections from Liberal Free Traders and Conservative and Unionist opposition. They objected vigorously to a £2,000,000 buyout of the recently created oil company, based in distant Persia,30 but the oil-rich sands were economically important and strategically significant. Churchill’s navy was rapidly being converted from coal to oil power and he, together with the Relugas gang, knew that it would very soon sail to war. Questions were raised about the wisdom and commercial efficacy of the Persian oil purchase. Other British oil suppliers were seriously upset, but the timing was perfect. It was a calculated move. Oil supplies were guaranteed for the navy; the Empire made more secure. All the while, Parliamentarians thought that they were debating issues of funding and the ethics of government ownership of private companies. The plot was far thicker than that. Churchill and Grey pulled off a magnificent strategic coup just weeks before the declaration of war.

  A secure supply of oil was but one of a very specific number of conditions that had to be simultaneously contrived before the Secret Elite could start their war. Each in its own way was part of the grand deception. Relations with Germany in 1914 appeared to be on a surer, more positive footing than for each of the last three years. The crises of Morocco and the Balkans appeared to have receded. That was an integral part of the deceit. They ensured that the public and the press were kept at arm’s length from informed discussion about Europe in the weeks prior to 4 August. Whatever else, in any public forum, and in Parliament in particular, the chance of Britain being involved in a European war was downplayed. The deception went deeper. Members of the Cabinet were denied crucial information that was circulating inside the deepest recesses of the Foreign Office. Only the Secret Elite’s agents were trusted. Parliamentary debates had to be focused away from the Austro-Serbian dispute and, in particular, they had to avoid mention of British involvement with Russia. Had any person of note stood upon a public platform and announced that within weeks the British Expeditionary Force would be on its way to war in support of miserable Serbia and the despised czar, they would have been laughed from the stage, mocked and ridiculed. Such circumstances were not just beyond reason, they were beyond folly. That could never happen without the cleverest of deceptions, the most careful manipulation of headstrong men and the complete misrepresentation of Germany’s intentions.

  From the outset, Sir Edward Grey worked constantly to deceive the kaiser and his advisors. On 9 July, the German ambassador in London, Prince Lichnowsky, was repeatedly assured by Grey that Britain had entered into no secret obligations that would come into play in the event of a European war. Lichnowsky confidently assured his government that ‘England wished to preserve an absolutely free hand to act according to her own judgement in the event of continental complications’.31 He also reported that Grey said he would be willing to persuade the Russian government to adopt a more peaceful and conciliatory attitude towards Austria.

  Pure deception. Grey had been intimately associated with the commitments made through the Committee of Imperial Defence since 1905. His commitment to the Secret Elite’s cause overrode honesty. He did nothing to reconcile Russia and Austria. In fact, his ambassador in St Petersburg, Sir George Buchanan, was there to steady Sazonov’s shaky hand in the desperate drive to war.

  You might have expected the foreign affairs debate in the House of Commons on 10 July to have discussed the growing tensions in the Balkans or the Austrian response to Sarajevo. What about British concerns over Serbia or the rumours circulating in newspaper and diplomatic circles all over Europe that Austria was planning to punish Serbia severely? What would Russia do? Might relationships between the Great Powers turn dangerously sour? It was an opportunity for serious debate that would have warned the nation of ominous developments that could well lead to a continental war. If the Foreign Office had honourably tried to raise the level of public awareness, then this was the logical platform. But these questions were never raised. The very last outcome the Secret Elite wanted was to allow time and opportunity for a powerful anti-war lobby to be established. The debate was a masterclass in deception. Members of Parliament had their democratic say about commercial interests and allegations of other nations acting unfairly against British companies and investors. It set a tone of self-interest that was occasionally broken by a shard of enlightenment.32 Honourable members discussed China, India, Persia and Russia, the Hong Kong and Shanghai Bank, improving relations with Germany, Portugal and Turkish Armenia but not the crisis in the Balkans. Sir Edward Grey said not a word to criticise or disagree with major points that were completely at odds with the true objectives of the Foreign Office, and then ignored them completely. Had it not been so serious, so calamitous, so despicable, the reader might find it amusing to appreciate how successfully he used the House of Commons to lull the country at large, and the Germans in particular, into believing that Britain had not the slightest concern that the events in Sarajevo might lead to a continental war.

  The Liberal MP for Stirling, Arthur Ponsonby, stood in the House and praised the improved relations between Britain and Germany. He hailed the recent successful visit of the British fleet to Kiel as an example of ‘how friendly relations are between Germany and Britain’, and in consequence asked for a commitment to reduce military spending ‘to prevent civilisation being submerged’.33 This was exactly the kind of signal that inspired German confidence in the British government’s good intentions. Ponsonby was perfectly serious, as was his Liberal colleague Joseph King, who drew appreciation from other members when he attacked czarist Russia’s religious intolerance towards Jews. His contempt for their anti-Semitic practices was clearly expressed in the statement: ‘I consider that a country which abuses the right of free entry, is outside the brotherhood of nations.’ Travellers who professed the Jewish faith were systematically denied entry to Russia, even on a British passport, which meant that some of the most prominent and powerful men in the Houses of Parliament could not go there.34

  What music to the ears of the German ambassador when Joseph King compared the scandal of Russia’s behaviour to the goodwill and affection for ‘countries like Germany, which stand with us in the forefront of civilisation’.35 Again and again, honourable Members of Parliament, completely ignorant of the Secret Elite agenda, underlined the much-improved relationship between Britain and Germany.

  Ultimately, not one word spoken in the debate mattered. British foreign policy was not to be sidetracked at the last moment by rising to the bait of Liberal ideology. Not a word was said about the festering sore that poisoned Austro-Serbian relationships. It was as if the ominous events in the Balkans had no relevance in London. It all played into the hands of Grey and the ultimate deception. The British people’s contempt for Russia might be palpable, but that meant nothing to him. At that very moment, Grey’s men were manipulating St Petersburg towards a war to destroy Germany. That would not be achieved without the Russian armies. While Parliament praised the new warmth in the Anglo-German relationship, the Foreign Office con
tinued its preparations to blow it apart. The date was 10 July 1914.

  Had the Austrians simply invaded Serbia immediately after the archduke’s funeral, international opinion would have understood why, but Berchtold was old-school and believed that diplomatic niceties and due process required to be followed. He sought appropriate permissions, waited patiently for full reports of the investigations, presented the case to the Emperor Franz Joseph and discussed the issue over and again with his top diplomat Alexander, Count Hoyos, and with the Hungarian premier, Count Istvan Tisza. Every formal link in the procedural chain was observed. It was the Hapsburg way. Three whole weeks were wasted. Three weeks in which those plotting war were gifted time to collude and prepare. Berchtold would not be rushed.36 He patiently waited Dr von Wiesner’s final conclusions.37

  Despite the volume of evidence implicating Serbia, Belgrade repeatedly protested its innocence and denied any complicity in the assassination. While these lies were repeated in the Russian press, the Austrian government had positive proof that Serbia was involved and that Hartwig had directed it.38 Wiesner’s report was merely the formal confirmation that due process demanded.

  Though pressure for action mounted by the day, Berchtold stuck to protocol. On 14 July, he dutifully explained to the ageing emperor that demands would be made to Serbia in a very firm ‘Note’. These included an immediate end to anti-Austrian propaganda and anti-Austrian teaching in schools; public apologies for the assassination from King Peter and the Serbian government; direct Austrian police involvement in the criminal investigations within Serbia and the immediate surrender of those complicit in the murder. Such details were much in line with what was already known in London. Secrets did not remain secrets for long in the sieve of international diplomacy. Too many ministers and civil servants had sight of the proposed text of the Austrian Note as it was discussed, finalised and presented to the emperor and his advisors.

  On 16 July, the British ambassador at Vienna, Sir Maurice de Bunsen, telegraphed Sir Edward Grey with a detailed account of the Austrian indictment against Serbia.39 He itemised the demands that would be made and the fact that Austria would insist on unconditional compliance. De Bunsen stated that there was a genuine belief in Austria that Russia would not seek to protect racial assassins. He added that Austria also believed she would lose her position as a Great Power if she did not act definitively.40 It was exactly as the Foreign Office expected.

  Unaware that their intentions were already widely known, the Austrians decided they should postpone delivering their demands to Serbia until after Poincaré’s visit to St Petersburg. They believed this would reduce the danger of his spurring Sazonov to respond to the Note with a macho Russian overreaction. Berchtold was encouraged by Germany to keep the problem and the solution local. He was prepared to wait. One important element in his thinking had been clarified on 14 July. If Austria was obliged to mobilise for war and Serbia backed down at that point, he instructed that the Serbs would be required to pay the colossal cost of Austrian mobilisation. Brinkmanship in the Balkans had almost become a way of life, and Berchtold’s advisors were alive to the possibility that Serbia might go to the edge before accepting all of their conditions. Berchtold added a codicil that accommodated such a last-minute Serbian stand-down. There was, therefore, an understanding that Austria might not need to go as far as war with Serbia if she agreed to the demands at the last moment.

  From 16 July, the diplomatic buzz centred exclusively on the forthcoming Austrian Note to Serbia, and the vocabulary sharpened to a threatening barb. Amongst the entente diplomats, in the rat runs of conspiracy in London, St Petersburg and Paris, the forthcoming Note further mutated from ‘ultimatum’ into ‘unacceptable ultimatum’. Berchtold’s gravest mistake was in withholding the demands to Serbia for three weeks in the expectation that it mattered that Poincaré had departed from Russia. In fact, the delay was counterproductive. Poincaré might have been at sea, but Berchtold was the one marooned by his own procrastination. He gifted the Secret Elite precious time to prepare an orchestrated response.

  Berchtold was also the victim of a cruel deception. Each of the three entente governments used their diplomatic corps to lead him down a blind ally by encouraging him to believe that ‘there was little probability indeed’ that their reaction to the Note would go beyond a diplomatic protest.41 Newspaper editorials and political comment had been repeatedly favourable to Austria. British ambassador Sir Maurice de Bunsen convinced Berchtold that Britain would not intervene. Edward Grey’s professed indifference to the Austro-Serbian quarrel was considered proof of this disinterest. He repeatedly said that he had no right to intervene.42 Poor Berchtold. The reassurances spurred him on to disaster.43

  Within three weeks of the Sarajevo assassination, the Secret Elite network had successfully manipulated the unfolding events in Austria and Serbia. They embarked on a mission to ensure that Russia’s determination to support Serbia against Austria remained firm, in the full knowledge that Germany would be dragged into the conflict. Simultaneously, they repeatedly and disingenuously assured Berlin of their good faith and noble intention. Britain, France and Russia expressed an unreserved understanding for the Austrian case against Serbia, but by the third week in July these same politicians were poised to declare a complete rejection of Austria’s response. Count Berchtold had been drawn into a well-constructed trap that the Secret Elite strategists hoped would net a greater prize. War with Germany.

  SUMMARY: CHAPTER 21 – JULY 1914 – DECEPTION, MANIPULATION AND MISREPRESENTATION

  The Secret Elite ensured that the murders in Sarajevo were fanned into a full-scale international crisis by manipulating key individuals in Vienna and St Petersburg, using their ambassadorial agents who were already in place.

  There was widespread initial support for Austria-Hungary after the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand.

  Through overtures of friendship and mutual understanding, the Secret Elite went to considerable lengths to deceive Germany, unwittingly assisted by the genuine goodwill of many parliamentarians.

  This encouraged Count Berchtold to a bold response that would stop the Serbian aggression once and for all.

  It is claimed that, in a deliberate attempt to force a war on Europe, the kaiser gave an unconditional assurance to Austria by a so-called blank cheque. In fact, Austria-Hungary’s need to respond to Serbian aggression was endorsed by others including Britain and the British press.

  The kaiser and his advisors supported a local solution to a local problem and made absolutely no special preparation for war.

  Consumed by the troubles in Ireland, the British Parliament and Cabinet were kept entirely in the dark about the dangers of the Austrian–Serbian dispute.

  Churchill and Grey used this opportune moment to purchase the Anglo-Persian Oil Company, guaranteeing oil for the navy and stamping British authority on the Gulf.

  Berchtold’s insistence on diplomatic protocol, and his three-week delay until after Poincaré’s visit to Russia, gave the members of the entente time to redefine their stance and prepare their response to the Austrian Note.

  Berchtold was about to walk into a trap, and the Secret Elite expected Germany to follow dutifully.

  CHAPTER 22

  July 1914 – Leading Europe Towards the Brink

  ST PETERSBURG BECAME THE FOCAL point of meaningful decision making in Europe from mid July 1914. That is not to infer that the czar or Sazonov suddenly asserted themselves and stood determined to see this through. Far from it. At each stage, the Secret Elite placemen were physically present to continually and positively reassure the czar and Sazonov that they were making the right decisions, reinforcing them in the certainty that their actions were being forced on them by Austria, and behind Austria, mendacious Germany. Grey knew that Sazonov would make the defence of Serbia an issue of national pride, and that the aggressive Russian response would draw Germany into the trap of a European war. Paléologue and Buchanan, the French and British ambassadors in
St Petersburg, were there to constantly embolden him and keep him from wavering from this course as the pressures of such an onerous task increased. Poincaré’s presidential visit had been scheduled to renew promises of a joint attack on Germany that would destroy their common enemy and open the Straits to Russian shipping and commerce. The golden carrot of Constantinople and the Straits was almost within the Russian reach.

  Every player was aware that Austria had constructed a list of stern demands to punish Serbia. It was an open secret. Grey, of course, knew that Sazonov would make an issue of defending Serbia, and Buchanan’s task was to keep the Russian foreign minister sufficiently confident to attack Austria, if and when she took retaliatory action against Serbia. Buchanan telegraphed that Sazonov had warned that ‘anything in the shape of an Austrian ultimatum could not leave Russia indifferent’.1 Little wonder Serbia felt secure. The Serbian prime minister, Pasic, in the midst of an election campaign that would define his political future, had time on 19 July to forward a telegram to all Serbian legations instructing them to impress on foreign governments Serbia’s ‘desire to maintain friendly relations with Austria-Hungary’. It is surely a matter of regret that he had not sent such instructions earlier to the Serbian press. He further warned that his government could never comply with demands that ‘might be directed against the dignity of Serbia, and would be unacceptable to any country which respects and maintains its independence’.2

  The dignity of Serbia? An oxymoron, surely. Pasic’s message was clear. The Austrian Note, as the demands were termed, had to be depicted as the act of a bully against a small, independent country. This approach was far more astute than any Pasic had previously taken. It had all the hallmarks of a professional diplomatist. Others had surely conspired to guide him through the diplomatic minefield. By 19 July, the entente governments knew the basis of the Austrian Note and had their response in place. They were prepared to react in unison the moment it was delivered. Berchtold’s delay had given them time to work out their retaliation in advance. This Machiavellian duplicity required careful planning, first-rate diplomatic cunning and the speedy preparation and distribution of a ‘hymn sheet’ from which Grey, Isvolsky, Poincaré, Sazonov and Pasic could sing in unison the moment the Austrian demands were delivered They all objected loudly to any implied threat to Serbia’s ‘sovereignty’.