Book of Odds
Page 7
SOURCES: “The Truth About American Marriage,” Parade Magazine, September 15, 2008. Objectum Sexuality International!, http://objectum-sexuality.org/. F Thadeusz, “Falling in Love with Things,” Spiegel Online International, May 11, 2007, http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/0,1518,482192,00.html. A Frances, H Pincus, M First, DSM-IV-TR Guidebook, Arlington, VA: American Psychiatric Publishing, 2004. Book of Odds calculation based on data from L Saad, “Romance to Break Out Nationwide This Weekend,” Gallup Poll, February 13, 2004, http://www.gallup.com/poll/10609/romance-break-nationwide-weekend.aspx.
About That Ring
The odds a person will get engaged in a year: 1 in 66.7
The same odds that…
An adult will report having told eight lies in the past day
A woman 25–29 will report being gay
A boy 6–11 drinks coffee at least once a day
An adult who has a costume in mind for Halloween will be Batman
SOURCES: Book of Odds estimate based on Robbins Brothers, Valentine’s Day Engagement and Proposal Survey Results. KB Serota, TR Levine, FJ Boster, “The Prevalence of Lying in America: Three Studies of Self-Reported Lies,” Human Communication Research 36, 2010: 2–25. US Department of Agriculture, “Nationwide Food Consumption Survey: Food and Nutrient Intakes by Individuals in the United States, 1 Day, 1987–88.” National Retail Federation, Consumer Intentions Survey, September 2010.
Under the Tree
The odds a person will get engaged in December: 1 in 416
SOURCE: “The Knot Unveils 2009 Real Wedding Survey Results,” February 17, 2010, http://www.xogroupinc.com/press-releases-home/2010-press-releases/2010-02-17-real-weddings-survey-results-2009.aspx.
The odds an engaged woman proposed to her groom: 1 in 100
SOURCE: Nast Bridal Group, “American Wedding Study 2006,” http://www.bridalgroup.com/0710/index.cfm.
Living Together? What Are the Odds You’ll Get Married?
It turns out that cohabitation is, more often than not, a straight shot to the altar. Half of all cohabitating couples marry within three years, and even more (1 in 1.5), do so within five years. But do they stay married?
Maybe Not
Whether they lived together prior to marriage seems relevant. A study based on the National Survey of Family Growth found a small gap in marriage success rates between those who cohabitate premarriage and those who don’t.
1 in 1.6 men who cohabitated before marriage stayed married for at least ten years; that’s less than the 1 in 1.5 who moved in after the wedding. For women, the gap was smaller. 1 in 1.7 cohabitating women were likely to stay married for at least ten years, compared to 1 in 1.5 noncohabitating women. Whether a couple was engaged matters, too: those who were engaged before moving in together were just as likely to see their tenth anniversary as those who did not live together before marriage.
SOURCE: Romance Writers of America, “Romance Literature Statistics,” 2009 RWA Readers Survey, May 2009.
How and Where Married People Met
SOURCE: MA Rosenfeld, RJ Thomas, “Table 5: How Americans Met Their Spouses and Current Partners,” How Couples Meet and Stay Together, Waves I and II, Public Version 2.04 [Computer file]. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Libraries, 2011–January 2012.
Hard to Pin Down
The odds a man 30–34 has lived with at least three different significant others without being married: 1 in 9.1
For a man 35–39 the odds increase to 1 in 6.9
SOURCE: Romance Writers of America, “Romance Literature Statistics,” 2009 RWA Readers Survey, May 2009.
The odds a “very religious” female 15–44 has lived with a significant other without being married: 1 in 2.3
The odds a “very religious” man from the same age group has done so: 1 in 2.3
SOURCE: Romance Writers of America, “Romance Literature Statistics,” 2009 RWA Readers Survey, May 2009.
Teens at the ALTAR
The odds a teenager 15–17 is married are 1 in 127, about the same odds a tourist in the United States will visit Minneapolis–St. Paul, Minnesota.
The heyday of teen marriage was the mid-twentieth century, when the median marrying age for women was just 20.3 (22.8 for men). Rates fell sharply after that, and the median marrying age for women reached 26 in 2007.
The birth rate for 15- to 19-year-olds declined steadily from 1991 to 2005. In both 2006 and 2007, the birth rates increased for this group.
How do teens compare to the whole population? The overall rate is declining but the teen rate is still higher. In 2008, the number of US births declined about 2% from the 2007 peak, along with a decline in overall fertility. The birth rate for females 15–19 also declined to 41.5 per 1,000, but is still above the 40.5 per 1,000 for 2005.
Many teen marriages designed to beat the stork do not have a happy ending. A National Bureau of Economic Research study found that a woman who marries before age 16 is 31% more likely to live in poverty later in life. High divorce rates are largely to blame: couples who marry before the age of 18 are at least twice as likely as couples who marry at 25 or later to divorce within 10 years, and divorced or separated women often suffer significant economic consequences.
SOURCES: US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement, November 2010. R Baedeker, “America’s 30 Most Visited Cities,” ForbesTraveler.com, July 27, 2008, http://www.forbestraveler.com/best-lists/most-visited-us-cities-story.html. National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Division of Reproductive Health, “Teen Birth Rates Rose Again in 2007, Declined in 2008,” May 5, 2010, http://www.cdc.gov/Features/dsTeenPregnancy/. BE Hamilton, JA Martin, SJ Ventura, “Births: Preliminary Data for 2008,” National Vital Statistics Report 58(16), April 6, 2010. G Dahl, “Early Teen Marriage and Future Poverty,” NBER Working Paper No. 11328, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), March 2009.
Has Marriage
Always Been in the Plans?
The odds a female high school senior thinks she will most likely get married: 1 in 1.2
The odds a male high school senior thinks he will most likely get married: 1 in 1.3
SOURCE: LD Johnston, JG Bachman, PM O’Malley, Monitoring the Future: Questionnaire Responses from the Nation’s High School Seniors 2009, University of Michigan, 2010.
Nearly 10%
(1 in 9.8) of brides are pregnant on their wedding day.
SOURCE: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Survey of Family Growth 2006–2008, Public Use Data Files.
ODDS COUPLE
Who’s Scrooge?
The odds a bride will intend to sign a prenuptial agreement: 1 in 33.3
The odds an adult will spend less than $100 on Christmas gifts in a year: 1 in 33.3
SOURCES: About.com, “Wedding & Honeymoon Statistics,” http://honeymoons.about.com/cs/eurogen1/a/weddingstats.htm. Book of Odds calculation based on data from L Saad, “Americans’ Christmas Budget Falls $200 Below Last Year’s,” Gallup Poll, 2008, http://www.gallup.com.
Why Get Married?
The odds a married man will report he married…
for love 1 in 1.2
because it was the right time in his life 1 in 2.2
because he did not want to be alone 1 in 4.4
for practical reasons 1 in 5.6
because he wanted to have children 1 in 6.3
because it got him out of a bad situation 1 in 50
The odds a married woman will report she married…
for love 1 in 1.2
because it was the right time in her life 1 in 2.5
because she did not want to be alone 1 in 5.6
because she wanted to have children 1 in 6.3
for practical reasons 1 in 7.7
because it got her out of a bad situation 1 in 25
SOURCE: “The Truth About American Marriage,” Parade Magazine, September 15, 2008.
Do I or Don’t I?
Reasons Men Give f
or Not Sealing the Deal
Fear of commitment: 1 in 2
Might pick the wrong person: 1 in 4
Don’t want to give up freedom and independence: 1 in 5.6
Don’t want to have sex with same person forever: 1 in 33.3
SOURCE: AskMen.com, “Men’s Dating Trends,” The Great Male Sex Survey, 2008 Edition, http://static.askmen.com/specials/2008_great_male_survey/2008_dating_survey.html.
1 in 5
The odds a single adult has broken an engagement in the past three years.
SOURCE: P Paul, “Calling It Off,” Time, October 6, 2003, http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1005857,00.html.
ODDS COUPLE
I Did It for the Cash
The odds a married woman or a married man will report she/he got married for money: 1 in 100
The odds a spy will receive $1,000,000 or more as payment: 1 in 100
SOURCES: “The Truth About American Marriage,” Parade Magazine, September 15, 2008. KL Herbig, Changes in Espionage by Americans: 1947–2007, Northrop Grumman, March 2008.
What’s Your Lawyer Doing Here?
The odds a woman reports she would never sign a prenuptial agreement and wouldn’t marry a man who didn’t trust her enough not to need one: 1 in 1.6
The odds a man believes it is somewhat or very important for his future wife to sign a prenuptial agreement: 1 in 3.4
SOURCES: AskMen.com, “Part I: Dating & Sex,” The Great Female Survey, 2009 Edition, www.askmen.com/specials/yahoo_shine_great_female_survey/part1.html. AskMen.com, “Part I: Dating & Sex,” The Great Male Survey, 2009 Edition, http://www.askmen.com/specials/2009_great_male_survey.
Age at First Marriage
The odds a man will enter his first marriage by the age of…
20 1 in 21.7
25 1 in 3.2
30 1 in 1.7
35 1 in 1.3
The odds a woman will enter her first marriage by the age of…
20 1 in 7.6
25 1 in 2.1
30 1 in 1.4
35 1 in 1.2
SOURCE: Book of Odds estimate based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Survey of Family Growth 2006–2008, Public Use Data Files.
The odds a man believes a man should be married by the age of 25 are 1 in 11.1. The odds a man believes a man should be married by 30 are 1 in 2.9. Those are the same odds that a woman in a relationship will report it is unlikely she will marry her current partner.
SOURCES: AskMen.com, “Men’s Dating Trends,” The Great Male Sex Survey, 2008 Edition, http://static.askmen.com/specials/2008_great_male_survey/2008_dating_survey.html. JA Davis, TW Smith, PV Marsden, General Social Surveys, 1972–2008 [CUMULATIVE FILE] [Computer file] ICPSR04697 v. 1., Chicago, IL: National Opinion Research Center [producer], 2009; Storrs, CT: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, University of Connecticut/Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributors].
Wedding Day
The odds a wedding will be a formal or black-tie affair are 1 in 5.
The odds a wedding will be a semiformal affair are 1 in 1.6.
The odds a wedding will be a casual-dress affair are 1 in 8.3.
The odds a wedding will have a buffet are 1 in 2.6.
The odds a wedding will have a sit-down dinner are 1 in 2.9.
The odds a wedding will have only cake and punch are 1 in 3.6.
The odds a wedding will have a vanilla- or chocolate-flavored cake are 1 in 2.
The odds a wedding will have a lemon-flavored cake are 1 in 7.7.
The odds a wedding will have a cream cheese cake are 1 in 10.
The odds a wedding will have a red velvet cake are 1 in 10.
The odds a wedding will have a DJ for the wedding reception are 1 in 1.5.
The odds a wedding will have a band for the wedding reception are 1 in 5.9.
SOURCES: “The Knot Unveils 2009 Real Wedding Survey Results,” February 17, 2010, http://www.xogroupinc.com/press-releases-home/2010-press-releases/2010-02-17-real-weddings-survey-results-2009.aspx. “The Knot Unveils 2008 Real Wedding Survey Results,” April 8, 2009, http://www.xogroupinc.com/press-releases-home/2009-press-releases/2009-04-08-real-wedding-survey.aspx. All the Right Tunes, “Wedding Statistics,” www.alltherighttunes.com.
Who Pays for the Wedding?
Glass-breaking, cake-cutting, bouquet-throwing, “something old, something new, something borrowed, something blue”—the list of such wedding traditions goes on and on. The odds a couple that gets married will have a large, traditional wedding are 1 in 1.3.
And most of us adhere to another custom—brides’ families are still footing the biggest chunk of the bill. According to wedding site The Knot, the average budget for a US wedding in 2009 was $28,385—although the odds are 1 in 1.9 a bride will plan for her wedding to cost less than $25,000. On average, the bride’s parents pay 46% of the final bill—and the bride and groom kick in most of the rest (40%). Memo to the groom’s folks: better make the rehearsal dinner something special. Their contribution to the big day is 12% on average.
SOURCES: Brides.com, “Brides Magazine Releases Survey Results; Defines the ‘New American Wedding,’” press release, December 7, 2009. David’s Bridal, “Bridal Authority’s ‘What’s On Brides’ Minds’ Survey Reveals Couples Tying the Knot Still Cutting Costs,” press release, January 25, 2010.
GENDER WARS
The odds a wedding is not the first for a groom 1 in 9.1
The odds it’s not the first for a bride 1 in 12.5
SOURCE: Bridal Association of America, The Wedding Report, http://www.bridalassociationofamerica.com.
The odds an unmarried adult is looking for a gay partnership, marriage, or civil union 1 in 100
SOURCE: Harris Interactive, “Chemistry.com Relationship Survey,” 2007, http://www.chemistry.com/relationshipcentral/rcfacts.aspx.
“Aunt Martha Called—She’s Coming”
Odds a wedding has at least 200 guests 1 in 2.5
SOURCE: AmericanBridal.com, “AmericanBridal.com Announces Results of 2008 Wedding Survey,” press release, December 13, 2008.
Warm Weddings
In 2009, June and July were equally popular months for a wedding (the odds were 1 in 9.6 for each). The least popular month was January—the odds of a January marriage were 1 in 16.9.
SOURCE: “Births, Marriages, Divorces, and Deaths: Provisional Data for 2009,” National Vital Statistics Reports 58(25), August 2010.
GENDER WARS
1 in 11.1 men admits to having cried at a wedding vs. 1 in 2.5 women.
SOURCE: Social Issues Research Centre, The Kleenex for Men Crying Report: A Study of Men and Crying, September 30, 2004.
The odds a bride will not plan to take her new husband’s name 1 in 8.3
SOURCE: WeddingChannel.com, “Will You Be My Bridesman? WeddingChannel.com Announces New Wedding Traditions,” press release, April 28, 2008.
Saying Yes to the Dress
1 in 1.2 brides will wear a long white dress.
SOURCE: Romance Writers of America, “Romance Literature Statistics,” 2009 RWA Readers Survey, May 2009.
The odds a bride will hire a wedding planner.
SOURCE: “The Knot Unveils 2009 Real Wedding Survey Results,” February 17, 2010, http://www.xogroupinc.com/press-releases-home/2010-press-releases/2010-02-17-real-weddings-survey-results-2009.aspx.
The odds an engaged couple will plan to create a wedding website: 1 in 1.8
SOURCE: Condé Nast Bridal Media, “Bridal Redefined, Results of the American Wedding Study 2007,” 2008.
The odds a bride is a virgin or first had sex the same month as her wedding.
SOURCE: Book of Odds estimate based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Survey of Family Growth 2006–2008, Public Use Data Files.
Want Your Wedding in the Times?
Let’s See Your Degree
Do you dream of having your wedding featured in the New York
Times? Here’s a tip: get yourself a degree from Columbia University—or marry someone who has one. If Columbia won’t take you, Harvard, or even Yale, will do.
It is a matter of note that the who’s who of the wedding pages has undergone a transformation in recent decades, moving away from featuring the offspring of privilege. In the words of Robert Woletz, the paper’s Society editor, “We’re looking for people who have achievements.”
There’s no doubt that when it comes to getting into the Ivies nowadays, Miss A+ increasingly gets the nod over Mr. A+. But it’s also true that if the right family name once multiplied the odds your marriage vows would be in “the paper of record,” the names Harvard, Yale, Princeton, Columbia, Dartmouth, University of Pennsylvania, Cornell, and Brown significantly up your chances today.
The analysis of “Weddings/Celebrations,” from June 14, 2009, to June 6, 2010, revealed that Ivy League affiliations accounted for 49.2% of all wedding announcements in the Times. Indeed, the odds at least one member of the happy couple is affiliated with an Ivy League school, either as an undergrad or grad student (or both), were 1 in 2.
Columbia University is not only the most frequently appearing Ivy, it is the most frequently appearing school in “Weddings/Celebrations”: 16% of all wedding announcements include Columbia somewhere in a couple’s educational history. The next most frequently appearing Ivies in the study were Harvard with 182 (15%), Yale with 128 (10%), and UPenn with 123 (10%).