Book of Odds
Page 9
The odds an ever-married or cohabitating woman has cheated during the relationship: 1 in 9.1
SOURCE: “The American Sex Survey: A Peek Beneath the Sheets,” ABC News Primetime Live Poll, October 21, 2004, http://abcnews.go.com/images/Politics/959a1AmericanSexSurvey.pdf.
The odds a woman 65 or older is widowed: 1 in 2.4
The odds a man 65 or older is widowed: 1 in 7.8
SOURCE: US Census Bureau, America’s Families and Living Arrangements: 2009, http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/hh-fam/cps2009.html.
The odds a separated female 15–44 will divorce within 1 year of the separation: 1 in 1.9
SOURCE: MD Bramlett, WD Mosher, “Cohabitation, Marriage, Divorce, and Remarriage in the United States,” Vital and Health Statistics 23(22), 2002.
Is Divorce a Socially Transmitted Disease?
Under “relationship status,” a Facebook user whose marriage has recently ended has three options: Widowed, It’s Complicated, and Single. Why no Divorced? Maybe users prefer the ambiguity and fresh sound of “single.” But the site itself is hesitant to offer the label, after a 2009 study found that divorce tends to spread within a social network “like a contagion.”
Of course, “social network” means more than an electronic arrangement of profiles. It is a person’s total group of friends and family, as well as their friends’ friends and families. The authors of Breaking Up Is Hard to Do, Unless Everyone Else Is Doing It Too, Rose McDermott, James Fowler, and Nicholas Christakis, found that a couple who are divorcing sets an example, which can inspire others to follow. And divorce is infectious not only at one degree of removal, among your friends and relatives, but also at two degrees—among your friends’ friends and relatives.
1 in 1.9 people 15 or older is married (also the odds that a woman has a Facebook or MySpace account). Of those married individuals, 1 in 50.7 will divorce in a year.
SOURCES: R McDermott, JH Fowler, NA Christakis, Breaking Up Is Hard to Do, Unless Everyone Else Is Doing It Too: Social Network Effects on Divorce in a Longitudinal Sample Followed for 32 Years; Monograph 10.1.1.169.5075. Book of Odds estimate based on data from US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2008. Harris Interactive, “Just Under Half of Americans Have a Facebook or MySpace Account,” April 2009.
Her vs. Him
The odds a woman thinks men and women get fair and equal treatment in divorce court: 1 in 2.3; the odds a man thinks so: 1 in 6.3.
The odds a woman thinks men get screwed by divorce courts: 1 in 2.5; the odds a man thinks so: 1 in 1.2.
The odds a woman doesn’t think men get screwed by divorce courts and that if anything women get screwed: 1 in 6.3; the odds a man thinks so: 1 in 50.
SOURCES: AskMen.com, “Part I: Dating & Sex,” The Great Male Survey, 2010 Edition, http://www.askmen.com/specials/2010_great_male_survey. AskMen.com, “Part I: Dating & Sex,” The Great Female Survey, 2009 Edition, www.askmen.com/specials/yahoo_shine_great_female_survey/part1.html.
The odds a divorced woman will remarry within 1 year of the divorce: 1 in 5.7
3 years: 1 in 2.6
5 years: 1 in 1.9
10 years: 1 in 1.4
SOURCE: Book of Odds estimate based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Survey of Family Growth 2006–2008, Public Use Data Files.
GENDER WARS
The odds a man 40–44 has been married at least three times: 1 in 11.8
The odds a woman 40–44 has been married at least three times: 1 in 14.1
SOURCE: PY Goodwin, WD Mosher, A Chandra, “Marriage and Cohabitation in the United States: A Statistical Portrait Based on Cycle 6 (2002) of the National Survey of Family Growth,” Vital and Health Statistics 23(28), 2010.
The odds a remarried female 15–44 will have her second marriage end within 10 years: 1 in 2.7
SOURCE: Book of Odds estimate based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Survey of Family Growth 2006–2008, Public Use Data Files.
CHAPTER 4
PREGNANCY AND BIRTH
Birth
The odds a female 15–44 will give birth in a year: 1 in 15
SOURCE: JA Martin, BE Hamilton, SJ Ventura, MJK Osterman, S Kirmeyer, TJ Mathews, EC Wilson, “Births: Final Data for 2009,” National Vital Statistics Reports 60(1), November 3, 2011.
You’ve Been Born!
What Are the Odds You’ll Live to 100?
With life expectancy in the United States at an all-time high of 77.9 years, people topping 100 years are the fastest-growing age segment. The number of centenarians is expected to increase from 75,000 to more than 600,000 by 2050 as the children of baby boomers outdo their parents.
Here’s a happy way to think about getting older: every birthday you reach statistically improves your odds of reaching the next one. For example, the predicted odds a 1-year-old will live to be at least 100 years old are 1 in 57.2. Making it through the perilous teen years raises the odds only slightly; the predicted odds a 21-year-old will live to at least 100 are 1 in 56.8. But once those candles start piling up in middle age, your chance of living a long life is looking better and better. At 50, your odds improve to 1 in 54, jumping to 1 in 31.2 once you reach 80. Before you know it, you’ll be 90 years old, with 1 in 12 odds of making it to the century mark.
As in all things related to longevity, women have an advantage over men in reaching the century mark. Not only do women live longer in general, but they increase their staying power toward the end. At 40, a woman’s life expectancy is 11% higher than a man’s, 41.7 additional years compared to 37.6 additional years for men. At 80, the gap has grown to 19%. Out of every 100,000 women, just over 2,460 will live to 100. Among 100,000 men, only 850 are likely to live that long.
SOURCES: “100-Year-Olds’ Club Is Starting to Get Crowded,” Associated Press, July 20, 2009, http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32009767/ns/health-aging. Book of Odds estimates based on E Arias, “United States Life Tables, 2007,” National Vital Statistics Reports 59(9), September 28, 2011.
Life EXPECTANCY
SOURCE: Book of Odds estimates based on E Arias, “United States Life Tables, 2007,” National Vital Statistics Reports 59(9), September 28, 2011.
The Odds a Woman Has Never Been Pregnant by Age Bracket
SOURCE: A Chandra, GM Martinez, WD Mosher, JC Abma, J Jones, “Fertility, Family Planning, and Reproductive Health of U.S. Women: Data from the 2002 National Survey of Family Growth,” Vital and Health Statistics 23(25), 2005.
The odds a man with a biological child fathered his first child when he was 20–24 are 1 in 2.8, compared to 1 in 3.5 for men 25–29 and 1 in 4.8 for men 30–44.
SOURCE: Book of Odds estimates based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Survey of Family Growth 2006–2008, Public Use Data Files.
What’s the Guy Thinking?
The odds a man believes a man should have children by age:
25: 1 in 16.7
30: 1 in 4.2
35: 1 in 2.8
40: 1 in 7.7
SOURCE: AskMen.com, “Men’s Dating Trends,” The Great Male Sex Survey, 2008 Edition, http://static.askmen.com/specials/2008_great_male_survey/2008_dating_survey.html.
The Odds a Female Who Gives Birth Will Not Be Married, by Age:
Younger than 15 1 in 1.01
15–19 1 in 1.1
20–24 1 in 1.6
25–29 1 in 3
30–34 1 in 4.8
35–39 1 in 5.5
40+ 1 in 4.8
SOURCE: JA Martin, BE Hamilton, SJ Ventura, MJK Osterman, S Kirmeyer, TJ Mathews, EC Wilson, “Births: Final Data for 2009,” National Vital Statistics Reports 60(1), November 3, 2011.
GENDER WARS
The odds a man 40–44 intends to have a child in the future: 1 in 7.2; vs. 1 in 19.3 for a woman 40–44.
SOURCE: Book of Odds estimates based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Survey of Family Growth 2006–2008, Public Use Data Files.
The odds a man
15–44 will report never having fathered a biological child: 1 in 1.8
SOURCE: Book of Odds estimates based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Survey of Family Growth 2006–2008, Public Use Data Files.
Who Reads the Instructions?
Condoms are highly effective in lab tests, but when people actually use them the results are less than perfect. Incredibly, not even sterilization (tubal ligation for women and vasectomies for men) is foolproof; some couples using these methods have unintended and profoundly unexpected pregnancies.
The real-life odds—the odds in a year—that condoms and other forms of contraception will fail are as follows:
Spermicide 1 in 3.4
Periodic abstinence 1 in 4
Withdrawal 1 in 5.4
Male condom 1 in 5.7
The pill 1 in 11.5
Injectable contraception 1 in 14.9
There is a more personal and precise way of looking at these odds from a human perspective. We call it a “thread” and it is a sequence of conditional probabilities. Think of it like the nursery rhyme “There Was an Old Lady Who Swallowed a Fly”:
There was an old lady who swallowed a fly
I don’t know why she swallowed a fly, perhaps she’ll die!
There was an old lady who swallowed a spider,
That wriggled and wiggled and tickled inside her;
She swallowed the spider to catch the fly;
I don’t know why she swallowed a fly, perhaps she’ll die!
After a while the odds that the old lady will die increase with each new snack, until she swallows a horse and what rhymes with horse?
She’s dead, of course!
In the case of contraception the odds of being in each group multiply against each other so that in the end 1 in 225 of women between 14 and 55 will experience the whole chain. Here is the whole sentence, hungry old-lady style: The odds a person is female aged 14–44, has had sexual intercourse with a man, has used contraception, ever relied on condoms, and stopped using condoms because she got pregnant are 1 in 225.
SOURCES: Traditional nursery rhyme heard by authors as children, “There Was an Old Lady Who Swallowed a Fly.” WD Mosher, J Jones, “Use of Contraception in the United States: 1982–2008,” Vital and Health Statistics 23(29), August 2010.
What Are
Your Odds?
The odds a couple trying to become pregnant will conceive:
Within 1 cycle: 1 in 5
Within 3 months: 1 in 2.5
Within 6 months: 1 in 1.4
Within 1 year: 1 in 1.2
SOURCE: BabyMed.com, “Getting Pregnant,” http://babymed.com/faq/Content.aspx?13273.
Numbers Tell the Story
Surprise Package
The odds a woman 40–44 will give birth in a year: 1 in 99
The odds a woman 40–44 at risk for unintended pregnancy does not use contraception: 1 in 13.2
The odds a woman 40–44 has been pregnant 4 or more times: 1 in 2.9
The odds a surgically sterile woman 40–44 is so for contraceptive reasons: 1 in 2.6
SOURCES: JA Martin, BE Hamilton, SJ Ventura, MJK Osterman, S Kirmeyer, TJ Mathews, EC Wilson, “Births: Final Data for 2009,” National Vital Statistics Reports 60(1), November 3, 2011. US Census Bureau, America’s Families and Living Arrangements: 2010, Current Population Survey. WD Mosher, J Jones, “Use of Contraception in the United States: 1982–2008,” Vital and Health Statistics 23(29), August 2010. Book of Odds estimate based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Survey of Family Growth 2006–2008, Public Use Data Files. A Chandra, GM Martinez, WD Mosher, JC Abma, J Jones, “Fertility, Family Planning, and Reproductive Health of U.S. Women: Data from the 2002 National Survey of Family Growth,” Vital Health Statistics 23(25), December 2005.
Condoms: Do They Work?
The odds a female aged 14–44 who has ever principally relied on condoms for contraception discontinued their use because she became pregnant (US, 2006–8): 1 in 225
Trying for a Baby
The odds a woman is not using contraception because she is trying to get pregnant by age:
15–19 1 in 111
20–24 1 in 23.3
25–29 1 in 15.9
30–34 1 in 17
35–39 1 in 19.7
40–44 1 in 40
SOURCE: WD Mosher, J Jones, “Use of Contraception in the United States: 1982–2008,” Vital and Health Statistics 23(29), August 2010.
…and Not: Contraceptive Methods for Married Women
SOURCE: WD Mosher, J Jones, “Use of Contraception in the United States: 1982–2008,” Vital and Health Statistics 23(29), August 2010.
“Pick Up Pregnancy Test”
The odds a sexually experienced teenage girl 15–19 has used withdrawal for contraceptive reasons: 1 in 1.7
SOURCE: WD Mosher, J Jones, “Use of Contraception in the United States: 1982–2008,” Vital and Health Statistics, 23(29), August 2010.
How Accidents Happen
The odds a teenage girl 15–19 at risk for unintended pregnancy does not use contraception: 1 in 5.4
The odds for other age brackets:
20–24: 1 in 7
25–29: 1 in 8.4
30–34: 1 in 14.3
35–39: 1 in 10.3
SOURCE: WD Mosher, J Jones, “Use of Contraception in the United States: 1982–2008,” Vital and Health Statistics 23(29), August 2010.
What Should We Name the Quintuplets, Dear?
Considering how important the imperative to “be fruitful and multiply” is to humankind, the modern language of fertility is awfully dull and lacking in playfulness or passion. It doesn’t have to remain that way, since the English language has a knack for naming collective nouns inventively.
Such nouns are called “terms of venery” by James Lipton, whose book An Exaltation of Larks, or The Venereal Game revived the practice by terms authentically used by English speakers in the fifteenth century. Many of these, such as a swarm of bees or a pride of lions, are still in use. Other terms—such as a bouquet of pheasants, an ostentation of peacocks, or a parliament of owls—were the correct usage then and knowing the correct terms of venery was a necessary social grace. Given that venery is derived from Venus, goddess of love, and veneri is rooted in the word “to hunt” but also “to desire,” it seems a shame that this naming game has not yet been applied to the product of love.
Why not redress the dull reliance on “sets” as the standard terms for all multiples? A set of octuplets sounds awfully pedestrian for such a gathering. If ever terms of venery were needed it is for the collectives of multiple births. Here is our list. Note that the first is common usage so we do not seek to alter it. What follows is a lark, yes, and also—we hope—an exultation:
SOURCE: J Lipton, An Exaltation of Larks, or The Venereal Game, 1st ed., New York: Grossman Publishers, 1968.
ODDS COUPLE
Unlikely Beginnings, Untimely Ends
The odds a woman 50–54 will give birth in a year: 1 in 20,250
The odds a person will be murdered in a year: 1 in 20,140
SOURCES: JA Martin, BE Hamilton, PD Sutton, S Ventura, TJ Matthews, MJK Osterman, “Births: Final Data for 2008,” National Vital Statistics Reports 59(1), December 2010. US Department of Justice, Federal Bureau of Investigation, Crime in the United States, 2009, http://www2.fbi.gov/cius2009/index.html.
1 in 5.31 pregnancies is aborted.
SOURCE: SJ Ventura, JC Abma, WD Mosher, SK Henshaw, “Estimated Pregnancy Rates for the United States, 1990–2005: An Update,” National Vital Statistics Reports 58(4), October 14, 2009.
GENDER WARS
The odds a woman 15–44 has ever had problems conceiving or carrying a child to term: 1 in 9.4
The odds a man 15–44 has ever had an infertility problem: 1 in 84.8
SOURCE: Book of Odds estimates based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Survey of Family Growth 2006–2008, Public Use Data Files.
When Babies Come in Pairs . . . or Bafflements!
The odds a baby born in the United States will be part of a multiple delivery are 1 in 28.8. Of the 4.1 million total recorded births in 2009, 143,560 were multiple births.
Multiple births are most likely to be twins, and the rates dwindle as the number of babies at a birth rises—from 139,000 twin births (or 278,000 twins born) in 2008 all the way down to 345 quadruplet births and only 46 sets of five or more. The odds a baby will be part of a twin birth are 1 in 30.1; a triplet birth, 1 in 723; a quadruplet birth, 1 in 12,310; and a birth of quintuplets or more, 1 in 92,340. This is similar to the odds a person will die from exposure to smoke or fire in a year, 1 in 92,720.
But not all women who get pregnant face the same odds. Because follicle-stimulating hormones and numerous implanted embryos may be involved, the chances of having a multiple birth jump if a woman had medical help to conceive. Book of Odds estimates about 67% of babies born as triplets or more were due to in vitro fertilization.
The likelihood a woman will have more than one baby at a time rises as she ages because older ovaries are more likely to release more than one egg at ovulation. The combination of more older women conceiving, and more women seeking infertility treatment, contributed to a rise in multiple-birth rates over the past several decades.
The odds go up again if a woman has a family history of fraternal twins and multiple births. (A predisposition for fraternal multiples, which happen when ovaries release multiple eggs, can be inherited; identical multiples, which happen when a single fertilized egg spontaneously splits, haven’t been linked to genetics.) Similarly, a woman who’s had one multiple birth is more likely to have another.