Book of Odds
Page 12
The odds a foreign-born adopted child is from Africa: 1 in 64
The odds a birth will be to an unmarried woman: 1 in 2.5
The odds a woman with the BRCA genetic mutation will develop breast cancer: 1 in 1.7
The odds a woman 35–39 has ever lived with a significant other without being married: 1 in 1.6
The odds a woman 35–39 has ever been divorced: 1 in 3.9
The odds a man 40–49 has ever been divorced: 1 in 3.3
The odds a married man often thinks about leaving his wife: 1 in 20
The odds a child lives with at least 5 siblings: 1 in 46.7
The odds a girl born in 2009 is named Shiloh: 1 in 4,065
The odds a boy born in 2009 is named Maddox: 1 in 1,003
SOURCES: J Jones, “Adoption Experiences of Women and Men and Demand for Children to Adopt by Women 18–44 Years of Age in the United States, 2002,” Vital Health Statistics 23(27), 2008. S Vandivere, K Malm, L Radel, Adoption USA: A Chartbook Based on the 2007 National Survey of Adoptive Parents, US Department of Health and Human Services, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation, 2009. US Census Bureau, “Adopted Children and Stepchildren: 2000,” Census 2000 Special Reports, October 2003. Book of Odds estimate based on data from J Ulmer, James Ulmer’s Hollywood Hot List, 1st ed., New York: St. Martin’s Griffin, 2000; http://www.filmsite.org; http://www.imdb.com; http://www.the-numbers.com/market/. “The American Sex Survey: A Peek Beneath the Sheets,” ABC News Primetime Live Poll, October 21, 2004, http://abcnews.go.com/images/Politics/959a1AmericanSex Survey.pdf. Harris Interactive, “Over Thirty Million Adults Claim to Be Victims of Domestic Violence,” June 16, 2010. JA Martin, BE Hamilton, PD Sutton, S Ventura, TJ Matthews, MJK Osterman, “Births: Final Data for 2008,” National Vital Statistics Reports 59(1), December 2010. National Cancer Institute, “BRCA1 and BRCA2: Cancer Risk and Genetic Testing,” http://www.cancer.gov/cancertopics/factsheet/risk/brca. Book of Odds estimate based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Survey of Family Growth 2006–2008, Public Use Data Files. Book of Odds estimate based on data from US Census Bureau, “Number, Timing, and Duration of Marriages and Divorces, 2004.” “The Truth About American Marriage,” Parade Magazine, September 15, 2008.
Birth Order
A recent Norwegian study has lent some credence to the belief that birth order matters. While controlling for family size, the researchers compared the IQs of nearly 250,000 military conscripts. They found that eldest children exhibit slightly higher levels of intelligence, on the whole, than their younger sibs—and the more elder siblings you have, the lower your IQ is likely to be. Sounds like good news for the 1 in 3.9 adults who are firstborns (and not only children)—and not so good news for those of us who spent our childhoods tagging behind.
A separate survey of its members by Vistage, a CEO peer support organization, found that 43% of respondents were eldest children, compared to 22% youngest and 33% middle children. Other research has shown that firstborns tend to gravitate toward cognitive pursuits, while their younger siblings are more artistic and outdoorsy.
But the most compelling evidence suggests that a child’s status within the family as the eldest is what makes the difference rather than actual birth order. The Norwegian study found that oldest children who were not actually born first—in other words, in families whose firstborn child had died—performed on par with natural firstborns.
That parents sometimes devote more attention to their firstborn child is no surprise, nor is the observation that the oldest child in the family may carry the heaviest burden of parental expectations. A large-scale study conducted by a team from Duke University, the University of Maryland, and Johns Hopkins University found that parents are stricter with firstborn children, which could explain why your oldest sibling is the least thrill-seeking (read: less likely to sneak out of the house at 2 a.m.) member of the family. And maybe firstborn children grow up to be leaders, including CEOs, because they’ve grown up being the head of a pack of siblings and more naturally see themselves in that role.
SOURCES: JA Davis, TW Smith, PV Marsden, General Social Surveys, 1972–2008 [CUMULATIVE FILE][Computer file] ICPSR04697 v. 1., Chicago: National Opinion Research Center [producer], 2009; Storrs, CT: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, University of Connecticut/Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributors]. P Kristensen, T Bjerkedal, “Explaining the Relation Between Birth Order and Intelligence,” Science 316(5832), June 22, 2007: 1717. D Jones, “Firstborn Kids Become CEO Material,” USA Today, September 4, 2007. ScienceDaily.com, “Birth Order Affects Career Interests, Study Shows.” S Shellenbarger, “New Birth Order Study: Parents Spend More Time with First-Borns,” The Juggle, WSJ.com, March 31, 2009. R Kelley, “Getting Away with It,” Newsweek, April 30, 2008.
Spacing the Kids Apart
The odds a female 15–44 who has had at least two live births had her second child:
Less than or equal to 12 months after the first: 1 in 24.4
13–24 months after: 1 in 3.8
25–36 months after: 1 in 4.2
37–48 months after: 1 in 6.3
49 or more months after: 1 in 3.3
SOURCE: Book of Odds estimates based on A Chandra, GM Martinez, WD Mosher, JC Abma, J Jones, “Fertility, Family Planning, and Reproductive Health of U.S. Women: Data from the 2002 National Survey of Family Growth,” Vital and Health Statistics 23(25), 2005.
Racial/Ethnic Disparities
The odds a woman 40–55 will experience:
Early Menopause*
Hispanic: 1 in 24.4
Black: 1 in 27
White: 1 in 34.5
Premature Menopause**
Hispanic: 1 in 71.4
Black: 1 in 71.4
White: 1 in 100
*Menopause between ages 40 and 45
**Menopause before age 40
SOURCE: JL Lubrosky, P Meyer, MF Sowers, EB Gold, N Santoro, “Premature Menopause in a Multi-Ethnic Population Study of the Menopause Transition,” Human Reproduction 18(1), September 3, 2002:199–206.
Baby Name Chart
SOURCE: Social Security Administration, Popular Baby Names.
Male Sterilization (and Its Discontents)
Bilateral vasectomy was initially used in the nineteenth century to reduce the incidence of epididymitis in prostatotomy. During the first two decades of the twentieth century, vasectomy was used as an alternative to castration and for limited other purposes. The vasectomy procedure we know of today was invented by Eugen Steinach, a Viennese doctor. It involved cutting a thin tube known as the vas deferens, hence the name we know it by today: the vasectomy. As of 2008, the odds a male 15–44 has had a vasectomy are 1 in 16.7.
Steinach’s procedure was known as the “Steinach vasoligature” and was used to rejuvenate older men. He performed it on himself in 1921. Trying to turn back the clock, the Viennese had intentionally sterilized himself and a great many other men. Both Sigmund Freud and W. B. Yeats are said to have undergone the procedure for “rejuvenation.”
It is a classic accidental-invention-of-Silly-Putty story—a discovery meant for one purpose and ultimately used for another. Steinach convinced himself, and hordes of men, that it was a miracle cure: it could cure deafness, he said, increase beard growth, boost energy and strength, and eliminate the need for glasses.
Today, its one simple purpose is to prevent having more children. And the more children a man has had, the likelier he is to have had the quick, out-patient procedure.
The odds a male 15–44 with one child has had a vasectomy are 1 in 16.4. Two children? 1 in 6.6; three or more: 1 in 5.7.
Just 1 in 143 males 15–44 without children has had a vasectomy. Those are the odds a person will report having told nine lies in the past day.
SOURCES: The History of Vasectomy, http://www.vasectomy-information.com/more info/history.htm. Book of Odds estimate based on data from Centers for Disease Control and Preventio
n, National Survey of Family Growth 2006–2008, Public Use Data Files. GM Martinez, A Chandra, JC Abma, J Jones, WD Mosher, “Fertility, Contraception, and Fatherhood: Data on Men and Women from Cycle 6 (2002) of the National Survey of Family Growth,” Vital and Health Statistics 23(26), May 2006. KB Serota, TR Levine, FJ Boster, “The Prevalence of Lying in America: Three Studies of Self-Reported Lies,” Human Communication Research 36, 2010: 2–25.
End of Female Fertility
The odds a woman has had a menstrual period in a year:
45–49 1 in 1.5
50–59 1 in 5.6
60–69 1 in 10
SOURCE: AARP The Magazine, “Sexuality at Midlife and Beyond, a 2004 Update of Attitudes and Behaviors,” May 2005.
CHAPTER 5
INFANCY AND CHILDHOOD
Accident!
The odds a child 1–4 will die from an accident in a year:
1 in 10,120
SOURCE: Book of Odds estimate based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Compressed Mortality File, 1979–2006.
Racial/Ethnic Makeup
The Odds an American Child Is…
White 1 in 1.5
Black 1 in 6.9
American Indian or Native Alaskan 1 in 100
Asian 1 in 22.9
Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander 1 in 500
Hispanic 1 in 4.3
Non-Hispanic 1 in 1.3
SOURCE: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2010, http://www.census.gov/acs/www/.
1 in 3.3 married same-sex couples, along with 1 in 6 unmarried ones, is raising a child.
SOURCE: GJ Gates, Same-sex Spouses and Unmarried Partners in the American Community Survey, 2008, Williams Institute, UCLA, October 2009.
The Odds a Child Lives with Married or Unmarried Parents
The odds a child in a two-parent household lives with parents who are married: 1 in 1.1
The odds a child in a two-parent household lives with parents who are unmarried: 1 in 19.1
SOURCE: Book of Odds estimates based on US Census Bureau, America’s Families and Living Arrangements: 2010, Current Population Survey.
The odds a child does not live with any siblings: 1 in 4.8
1 sibling 1 in 2.6
2 siblings 1 in 4
3 siblings 1 in 10
4 siblings 1 in 26.4
At least 5 siblings 1 in 50.5
SOURCE: US Census Bureau, America’s Families and Living Arrangements: 2010, Current Population Survey.
TIMES HAVE CHANGED
1969
The odds a child lived with:
Two parents: 1 in 1.2
Mother only: 1 in 9.1
Father only: 1 in 91.9
Relatives other than parents: 1 in 43.9
Nonrelatives only: 1 in 202
2010
The odds a child lived with:
Two parents: 1 in 1.4
Mother only: 1 in 4.3
Father only: 1 in 29.1
Relatives other than parents: 1 in 31.2
Nonrelatives only: 1 in 113
SOURCES: US Census Bureau, “Detailed Tables: America’s Families and Living Arrangements, 2006,” Current Population Survey, 2006 Annual Social and Economic Supplement. Book of Odds estimates based on US Census Bureau, America’s Families and Living Arrangements: 2010, Current Population Survey.
Where Babies Sleep: From 2 weeks to 12 months
In a bed with their mothers
In the same room as their mothers
SOURCE: Book of Odds estimate based on F Hauck, C Signore, S Fein, T Raju, “Infant Sleeping Arrangements and Practices During the First Year of Life,” Pediatrics 122 Supplement(S113–S120), http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/cgi/content/abstract/122/Supplement_2/S113.
By the time we are about two, most of us can walk, even if we can’t climb stairs.
Walking, Talking, Thinking
The odds a child 22–25 months:
Possesses problem-solving skills 1 in 1.01
Can walk skillfully 1 in 1.1
Can understand words 1 in 1.2
Has some vocabulary 1 in 1.6
Has developed fine motor skills 1 in 1.8
Can climb stairs 1 in 2.1
SOURCE: GM Mulligan, KD Flanagan, Age 2: Findings From the 2-Year-Old Follow-up of the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Birth Cohort (ECLS-B) (NCES 2006-043), US Department of Education. Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics, 2006.
Saying No to the Shot
Eighty years ago, when the death toll of pertussis, also known as whooping cough, was at its peak, few would have refused to get their children vaccinated against it. In 1934 alone, 7,518 Americans—1 in 16,800—succumbed to it.
In 2010, the odds were much lower that a person will die of whooping cough in a year, just 1 in 33,510,000, driven by 10 deaths in California. Those odds could increase, largely because of parental concerns over the safety of the vaccine and the failure of many adults to get booster shots themselves. In 2012, Washington State declared a whooping cough epidemic due to a tenfold increase in the number of cases, with 3,000 expected by year end.
SOURCES: ER Stiehm, HD Ochs, JA Winkelstein, Immunologic Disorders in Infants and Children, 5th ed., Philadelphia: Elsevier Saunders, 2004. J Xu, KD Kochanek, SL Murphy, B Tejada-Vera, “Deaths: Final Data for 2007,” National Vital Statistics Reports 58(10), May 2010. Book of Odds estimate based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Wonder Database Compressed Mortality File, 1999–2006 data. “Whooping Cough Epidemic Declared in Wash. State,” Associated Press, May 12, 2012.
Saying Yes to the Shot
The odds a child younger than 36 months has been vaccinated against:
Diphtheria, tetanus, and whooping cough 1 in 1.1
Measles, mumps, and rubella 1 in 1.1
Poliovirus 1 in 1.1
Haemophilus influenza type B 1 in 1.2
Hepatitis B 1 in 1.1
Chicken pox 1 in 1.1
Haemophilus 1 in 1.1
SOURCE: “National, State, and Local Area Vaccination Coverage Among Children Aged 19–35 Months—United States, 2009,” Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 59(36), September 17, 2010.
Who’s Watching the Kids?
In the United States, 1 in 1.1 fathers and 1 in 1.7 mothers of children under 6 is employed, either full- or part-time. It comes as no surprise then that only 1 in 2.6 children under 7 is able to be cared for only by his or her parents.
So who else is involved?
1 in 4.5 children under 7 is cared for by relatives.
1 in 7.2 children under 7 is cared for by nonrelatives.
1 in 2.8 spends time in a child-care center.
SOURCE: Federal Interagency Forum on Child and Family Statistics, America’s Children: Key National Indicators of Well-Being, 2007, Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office.
Taking Chances
The odds a child 19–35 months lives in a home without:
Padding around hard surfaces or sharp edges 1 in 1.9
Ipecac syrup on hand for accidental poisoning 1 in 1.9
Turned-down hot water thermostat setting 1 in 2.4
Baby gates, window guards, or other child safety barriers 1 in 4.6
Locks or latches on cabinets that contain cleaners or medicine 1 in 6.3
Stoppers or plugs in electric outlets 1 in 16.7
SOURCE: N Halfon, L Olson, M Inkelas, et al., “Summary Statistics from the National Survey of Early Childhood Health, 2000,” Vital and Health Statistics 15(3), 2002.
ODDS COUPLE
The Waiting Game
Some children must wait for a parent to come home from prison. It should come as no surprise that many children grow up with one or more parents behind bars. The United States has a greater percentage of its population in prison than any other country. An appalling milestone was reached in 2008 when the odds that an adult was incarcerated were 1 in 100. This has declined to 1 in 104 in 2010 as releases were slightly greater than a
dmissions in that year.
The odds a child under 18 has a parent in prison are 1 in 43.2.
These are about the same odds as those that an adolescent boy 11–17 on the waiting list for a kidney donation has been there for at least five years: 1 in 43.
SOURCES: WJ Sabol, HC West, “Bureau of Justice Statistics: Prisoners in 2008.” LE Glaze, “Bureau of Justice Statistics: Correctional Populations in the United States,” 2010. LE Glaze, “Bureau of Justice Statistics: Parents in Prison and Their Minor Children,” August 8, 2008. Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network, “Waiting Time for Organ Transplant as of 8/8/2009,” http://OPTN.transplant.hrsa.gov.
“Arrange Sitter for Thursday”
The odds a child younger than 3 will receive only parental care: 1 in 2
SOURCE: Federal Interagency Forum on Child and Family Statistics, America’s Children: Key National Indicators of Well-Being, 2007. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office.
The Odds a Parent in a Married Couple with a Child Under Age 6 Is Employed
The odds a married couple with at least 1 child younger than 6 are both employed are 1 in 1.9.
The odds a married couple with at least 1 child younger than 6 are both unemployed are 1 in 114.
The odds a married woman with at least 1 child younger than 6 is not in the labor force but her husband is are 1 in 2.8.
The odds a married man with at least 1 child younger than 6 is not in the labor force but his wife is are 1 in 34.6.
Note: To be counted in the labor force, a person must be either employed or actively seeking work; those not employed and not actively seeking work are not included.
SOURCES: US Census Bureau, America’s Families and Living Arrangements: 2010, Current Population Survey. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Families Employment Status, Table 5, March 24, 2011