Book of Odds
Page 15
a chair or sofa in a year: 1 in 265
toys in a year: 1 in 345
a table in a year: 1 in 366
a nonglass door in a year: 1 in 475
a desk, shelf, cabinet, or rack in a year: 1 in 570
nursery equipment in a year: 1 in 716
a bathroom structure or fixtures in a year: 1 in 859
clothing in a year: 1 in 1,029
cans or containers in a year: 1 in 1,124
jewelry in a year: 1 in 1,365
a carpet or rug in a year: 1 in 1,746
a glass door, window, or panel in a year: 1 in 1,813
a television set or stand in a year: 1 in 2,184
a ladder or stool in a year: 1 in 2,324
a grooming device in a year: 1 in 3,639
a cooking range or oven in a year: 1 in 3,881
an electric lamp or fixture in a year: 1 in 4,213
a handrail, railing, or banister in a year: 1 in 4,250
nonsoap cleaning agents in a year: 1 in 4,528
soaps or detergents in a year: 1 in 5,451
SOURCE: Book of Odds estimates based on US Consumer Product Safety Commission, National Electronic Injury Surveillance System (NEISS) Data Highlights 2010.
No Surprise to Parents of Boys
The odds a boy will suffer a fracture in a year 1 in 12.5
The odds for a girl 1 in 26.3
The odds a boy will suffer a contusion in a year 1 in 33.3
The odds for a girl 1 in 40
The odds a boy will suffer a dislocation in a year 1 in 83.3
The odds for a girl 1 in 167
However, girls are more likely than boys to have a sprain or strain in a year: 1 in 19.6 vs. 1 in 22.7 for boys.
SOURCE: United States Bone and Joint Decade, The Burden of Musculoskeletal Diseases in the United States, Rosemont, IL: American Academy of Orthopedic Surgeons, 2008.
Fatal Car Accidents
The odds a child under 5 will be injured while riding in a car in a year 1 in 450
The odds a child 5–9 will be injured while riding in a car in a year 1 in 341
The odds a child 10–15 will be injured while riding in a car in a year 1 in 250
The odds a child under 5 will be killed while riding in a car in a year 1 in 49,505
The odds a child 5–9 will be killed while riding in a car in a year 1 in 54,348
The odds a child 10–15 will be killed while riding in a car in a year 1 in 33,133
SOURCE: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, National Center for Statistics and Analysis, Traffic Safety Facts 2009: A Compilation of Motor Vehicle Crash Data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System and the General Estimates System.
Food Allergies in Children Younger than 3
The odds a child younger than 3 is allergic to milk 1 in 40
The odds a child younger than 3 is allergic to eggs 1 in 76.9
The odds a child younger than 3 is allergic to peanuts 1 in 125
The odds a child younger than 3 is allergic to tree nuts 1 in 500
The odds a child younger than 3 is allergic to fish 1 in 1,000
The odds a child younger than 3 is allergic to shellfish 1 in 1,000
SOURCE: HA Sampson, “Update on Food Allergy,” Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology 113, 2004:805–819.
The odds a child younger than 15 will have his or her tonsils removed in a year: 1 in 114
SOURCE: KA Cullen, MJ Hall, A Golosinkiy, “National Ambulatory Surgery in the US, 2006,” National Health Statistics Reports (11), September 4, 2009: 11–28.
The odds a child younger than 15 will be hospitalized for appendicitis in a year: 1 in 997
SOURCE: JE Everhart, ed. The Burden of Digestive Diseases in the United States (NIH Publication No. 09–6443). US Department of Health and Human Services, Public Health Service, National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office, 2008.
Children and Cancer:
Most Common Forms by Age
Over the past twenty-five years, the incidence of children diagnosed with all forms of invasive cancer has increased from 11.5 cases per 100,000 children in 1975, to 14.8 per 100,000 children in 2004 to an average of 15.4 per 100,000 children 0–14 in 2005 to 2009. Cancer is the leading cause of death by disease for children under 15, but is still relatively rare.
Leukemias (blood cell cancers) and, in particular, acute lymphocytic leukemia as well of cancers of the brain and nervous system, account for about half of new cases. The most common solid tumors are brain tumors such as glomas and medulloblastomas.
The causes of childhood cancers are largely unknown. A small percentage of cases can be explained by chromosomal and genetic abnormalities and ionizing radiation exposure. Environmental causes have been suspected but causality is difficult to establish due to the overall low incidence.
As one can observe in the odds by age, the overall incidence is dependent on the incidence of leukemia, which declines by age, reaching its minimum level at age 9 (1 in 9,259). As children get older, other types of cancer increase in importance, causing the overall rate to increase again, and by age 17 the incidence odds are greater than for a 1-year-old (1 in 4,505 versus 1 in 4,739).
The Odds a Child Will Be Diagnosed with Cancer in a Year
The Odds of Being Overweight or Obese by Age
SOURCE: CC Ogden, MD Carroll, LR Curtin, MM Lamb, KM Flegal, “Prevalence of High Body Mass Index in US Children and Adolescents, 2007–2008.” JAMA; 303(3), 2010: 242–249.
The Odds of Childhood Cancer by Type
SOURCES: National Cancer Institute, Childhood Cancers Fact Sheet. N Howlader, AM Noone, M Krapcho, N Neyman, R Aminou, W Waldron, et al., eds., SEER Cancer Statistics Review, 1975–2009 (Vintage 2009 Populations), based on November 2011 SEER data submission, posted to the SEER website, April 2012, http://seer.cancer.gov/csr/1975_2009_pops09/.
Diabetes: The Odds Rise with Age
At one time the term “juvenile diabetes” referred to Type I diabetes, which results from lack of sufficient production of insulin by the pancreas, and the odds of developing it were low. Type II diabetes, or insulin resistance, typically developed in middle age. Now that being obese and overweight has increased so much among children, Type II diabetes is also increasing:
Younger than 5: 1 in 3,226 5–9: 1 in 800 10–14: 1 in 437 15–19: 1 in 299
SOURCE: SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study Group, “The Burden of Diabetes Mellitus Among US Youth: Prevalence Estimates from the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study,” Pediatrics 118, 2006: 1510–1518.
CHAPTER 6
HIGH SCHOOL AND COLLEGE
The odds a girl 15–19 has had 7 to 14 male sexual partners: 1 in 28.4
SOURCE: Book of Odds estimate based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Survey of Family Growth 2006–2008, Public Use Data Files.
High School Means
Spending Most of Your Time in an Institution
The odds a person is enrolled in school:
Age 14–15 1 in 1.02
Age 16–17 1 in 1.04
Age 18–19 1 in 1.4
SOURCE: TD Snyder, SA Dillow, Digest of Education Statistics 2011 (NCES 20121-001). Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics, 2012.
Most Kids Go to Public School
The odds a high school student younger than 18 attends an assigned public school 1 in 1.4
The odds a high school student younger than 18 attends a chosen public school 1 in 6.3
Some Go Private
The odds a high school student younger than 18 attends a private school 1 in 9.5
Some Elect Charter
The odds a high school student in ninth–twelfth grades attends a charter school 1 in 100
Some Stay Home
The odds a high school student in ninth–twelfth grades is homeschooled 1 in 35.7
SOURCES: TD Snyder, SA Dillow, Digest of Educat
ion Statistics 2009 (NCES 2010–13). Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics, 2010. S Grady, S Bielick, Trends in the Use of School Choice: 1993 to 2007 (NCES 2010-004). Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics, 2010.
Comparison of Grades for
Public and Private High School Students
The odds a public secondary school student receives:
mostly As 1 in 2.6
mostly Bs 1 in 2.6
mostly Cs 1 in 5.8
mostly Ds or Fs 1 in 19.2
The odds a private secondary school student receives:
mostly As 1 in 2
mostly Bs 1 in 2.7
mostly Cs 1 in 10.2
mostly Ds or Fs 1 in 83.3
SOURCE: TD Snyder, SA Dillow, Digest of Education Statistics 2009 (NCES 2010–2013). Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics, 2010.
Not Everybody Deserves
A Good Grade
The odds a high school student will copy another student’s homework at least once in a year:
Female student: 1 in 1.2
Male student: 1 in 1.3
The odds a high school student will cheat on a test in a year:
Female: 1 in 1.7
Male: 1 in 1.7
SOURCE: Josephson Institute, 2010 Report Card on the Ethics of American Youth, 2011.
Not Done
When the Bell Rings
The odds a student 13–17 typically does homework between school and dinnertime:
SOURCE: L Lyons, “What Teens Are Doing After School,” Gallup, April 19, 2005.
School Violence
The odds a school will use metal detectors for security:
SOURCE: S Robers, J Zhang, J Truman, T Snyder, Indicators of School Crime and Safety: 2011 (NCES 2012-002/NCJ 236021). Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics/Bureau of Justice Statistics.
Girl-on-Girl Violence Is Up
According to the US Department of Justice, the number of teenage girls arrested for aggravated assault in 2003 was nearly double what it had been in 1980; the arrest rate for simple assault was more than triple. The 2011 report from the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System shows that during 2010–2011, 33% of black female high school students got into a physical fight, as did 27% of Hispanic and 20% of white high school girls.
SOURCES: M Zahn, S Brumbaugh, D Steffensmeier, BC Feld, M Morash, M Chesney-Lind, et al., Violence by Teenage Girls: Trends and Context, Girls Study Group, Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention, US Department of Justice, May 2008. DK Eaton, L Kann, S Kinchen, S Shanklin, KH Flint, J Hawkins, et al., “Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance—United States, 2011,” Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 61(4), June 8, 2012.
Fewer Homicides at School
For youth 5–18, the number of homicides at school varies from year to year, but for school years 1992–1993 through 1998–1999, the number ranged from 28 to 34 per year. During the school years 1999–2000 through 2009–2010, the number of homicides ranged from 14 to 30, with an average of 19 per year.
Like airports and courthouses, our schools now have metal detectors (1 in 19.2) and security cameras (1 in 1.6). In a given month, 1 in 6 high school students will carry a weapon into a school, and 1 in 13.5 students will be threatened—or worse, injured—by a weapon brought onto school property. And it is not just students who are at risk. In a given year, 1 in 13.3 teachers will be threatened with injury, and 1 in 25 will be physically attacked by a student.
Have we made things safer, and who is the arbiter of this? These events are rare, variable, but not new. The most devastating school massacre was in 1927, when a mad bomber named Andrew Philip Kehoe killed forty-five people and injured fifty-eight in the Bath Township Consolidated School in Michigan.
SOURCES: S Robers, J Zhang, J Truman, T Snyder, Indicators of School Crime and Safety: 2011 (NCES 2012-002/NCJ 236021). Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics/Bureau of Justice Statistics. MJ Ellsworth, The Bath School Disaster, 1927. J Barron, “Children Were All Shot Multiple Times with a Semiautomatic, Officials Say,” New York Times, December 15, 2012.
Numbers Tell the Story
Party Crashers
The buy:
The odds a high school student who drinks will buy alcohol in a store in a month: 1 in 19.2
The party:
The odds a high school senior will binge drink in a month: 1 in 3.2
The driver:
The odds a twelfth grade male will drive drunk in a month: 1 in 6.3
His buddy rides shotgun:
The odds a high school senior will be the passenger of a drunk driver in a month: 1 in 3.6
A telephone pole:
The odds a male licensed driver 16–20 will be involved in a motor vehicle accident in a year: 1 in 9.2
His buddy is killed:
The odds a person 16–20 will be killed in a motor vehicle accident in a year: 1 in 5,531
He might have been saved:
The odds a passenger 16–20 killed in a motor vehicle accident was not wearing a seat belt: 1 in 1.8
The breathalyzer:
The odds a driver 16–20 involved in a fatal motor vehicle accident had a blood alcohol content of 0.08 or higher: 1 in 5.3
The arrest:
The odds an arrest of a person younger than 18 will be for driving under the influence: 1 in 142
SOURCES: DK Eaton, L Kann, S Kinchen, S Shanklin, J Ross, J Hawkins, et al., “Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance—United States, 2007,” Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 57(SS-4). DK Eaton, L Kann, S Kinchen, S Shanklin, KH Flint, J Hawkins, et al., “Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance—United States, 2011,” Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 61(4), June 8, 2012. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, National Center for Statistics and Analysis, Fatality Analysis Reporting System. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, National Center for Statistics and Analysis, US Department of Transportation, Traffic Safety Facts 2008. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, National Center for Statistics and Analysis, US Department of Transportation, Traffic Safety Facts 2009. Federal Bureau of Investigation, US Department of Justice, Crime in the United States, 2009.
Use of Drugs, Alcohol, and Cigarettes
for High School Students by Gender
The odds a female high school student has ever had alcohol 1 in 1.4
The odds a male high school student has ever had alcohol 1 in 1.4
The odds a female high school student has ever smoked a cigarette 1 in 2.3
The odds a male high school student has ever smoked a cigarette 1 in 2.2
The odds a female high school student has ever used marijuana 1 in 2.7
The odds a male high school student has ever used marijuana 1 in 2.4
The odds a female high school student has ever used an inhalant 1 in 8.1
The odds a male high school student has ever used an inhalant 1 in 9.5
The odds a female high school student has ever used a hallucinogenic drug 1 in 17.0
The odds a male high school student has ever used a hallucinogenic drug 1 in 8.8
The odds a female high school student has ever used ecstasy 1 in 15.4
The odds a male high school student has ever used ecstasy 1 in 10.2
The odds a female high school student has ever used cocaine 1 in 17.5
The odds a male high school student has ever used cocaine 1 in 12.5
The odds a female high school student has ever used methamphetamines 1 in 33.3
The odds a male high school student has ever used methamphetamines 1 in 22.2
The odds a female high school student has ever taken nonprescription steroids 1 in 34.5
The odds a male high school student has ever taken nonprescription steroids 1 in 23.8
The odds a female high school student has ever used heroin 1 in 55.6
The odds a male high school student has ever used heroin 1 in 25.6
SOURCE: DK Eaton, L Kann,
S Kinchen, S Shanklin, KH Flint, J Hawkins, et al., “Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance—
United States, 2011,” Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 61(4), June 8, 2012.
Teens and Risk
Breaking Loose and Breaking Rules
The odds a high school student will drink alcohol on school grounds in a month:
Female: 1 in 21.3
Male: 1 in 18.5
The odds a high school student will smoke marijuana on school property in a month:
Female: 1 in 24.4
Male: 1 in 13.3
The odds a high school student has ever injected an illegal drug:
Female: 1 in 62.5
Male: 1 in 34.5
SOURCE: DK Eaton, L Kann, S Kinchen, S Shanklin, KH Flint, J Hawkins, et al., “Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance—United States, 2011,” Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 61(4), June 8, 2012.
Mind and Body
Extreme Dieting
According to the National Institute of Mental Health, in their lifetime, an estimated 0.6% of the US population will suffer from anorexia and 1% from bulimia. Teenagers are particularly at risk. The odds of being overweight are similar for both male and female high school students: 1 in 6.6 and 1 in 6.5, respectively. However, 1 in 3.2 high school boys and 1 in 1.6 high school girls will try to lose weight in a year.
In the course of a month, the odds a male twelfth grader will vomit or take laxatives to lose weight or keep from gaining weight are 1 in 40; for a male ninth grader, the odds are 1 in 41.7.
It is not surprising that the numbers are significantly higher for their female counterparts. The odds a female twelfth grader will vomit or take laxatives in a month in order to lose weight or maintain her weight are 1 in 15.6. For a female ninth grader, the numbers are an alarming 1 in 16.9.