Book of Odds
Page 17
The odds a teenage boy 15–17 will report he would be very upset if he got a girl pregnant now are 1 in 1.9.
The odds a teenage boy 18–19 will report he would be very upset if he got a girl pregnant now are 1 in 2.7.
The odds a teenage boy 15–17 will report he would be a little upset if he got a girl pregnant now are 1 in 3.2.
The odds a teenage boy 18–19 will report he would be a little upset if he got a girl pregnant now are 1 in 2.6.
The odds a teenage boy 15–17 will report he would be a little pleased if he got a girl pregnant now are 1 in 9.
The odds a teenage boy 18–19 will report he would be a little pleased if he got a girl pregnant now are 1 in 5.9.
The odds a teenage boy 15–17 will report he would be very pleased if he got a girl pregnant now are 1 in 38.5.
The odds a teenage boy 18–19 will report he would be very pleased if he got a girl pregnant now are 1 in 15.2.
SOURCE: JC Abma, GM Martinez, CE Copen, “Teenagers in the United States: Sexual Activity, Contraceptive Use, and Childbearing, National Survey of Family Growth 2006–2008,” Vital and Health Statistics 23(30), June 2010.
Strike Up
the Band
Playing an instrument in the school band is a common extracurricular activity. The odds a school musician:
is male: 1 in 1.9
is female: 1 in 2.1
plays in a full orchestra: 1 in 1.7
plays in a marching band: 1 in 3.5
plays in a jazz band: 1 in 3.8
plays in a string orchestra: 1 in 9.1
But school band members engage in other activities as well. The odds a school musician, when not playing his or her instrument, will spend a significant portion of his or her free time:
hanging out with friends: 1 in 1.8
playing sports: 1 in 2
watching TV: 1 in 2
on the computer: 1 in 2.1
playing video games: 1 in 2.8
reading: 1 in 4.2
working a part-time job: 1 in 33.3
SOURCE: “The 2008 School Musician Survey,” Music Trades Magazine, July 2008.
The odds a school musician will report that he or she plays an instrument because “it will look good on my college application”: 1 in 5
SOURCE: “The 2008 School Musician Survey,” Music Trades Magazine, July 2008.
Getting a Job and Getting into College
Education and Income
The odds a family will be in the lowest income 20% if the main breadwinner:
never went to high school: 1 in 2
has a high school diploma but no higher: 1 in 4.3
has some college education: 1 in 5.4
has attained a bachelor’s degree or higher: 1 in 16.5
has a master’s degree: 1 in 22.8
has a professional degree: 1 in 27.5
has a doctoral degree: 1 in 37.7
SOURCE: US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement, November 2010.
“GRE exam 9 a.m. Sat.”
The odds a family whose main breadwinner has a professional degree is in the highest income quintile: 1 in 1.6
SOURCE: US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement, November 2010.
Teens Use Cell Phones for Just About Everything—to:
take pictures 1 in 1.2
share pictures with others 1 in 1.6
play music 1 in 1.7
play games 1 in 2.2
exchange videos 1 in 3.1
exchange instant messages 1 in 3.2
go online for general purposes 1 in 3.7
access social network sites 1 in 4.4
use email 1 in 4.8
purchase things 1 in 9
SOURCE: A Lenhart, R Ling, S Campbell, K Purcell, Teens and Mobile Phones, Pew Internet and American Life Project, Pew Research Center, April 20, 2010.
Full-Time and Part-Time Employment by Age
The odds a teenager age 15 is not in the labor force 1 in 1.1
The odds a teenager age 16 is not in the labor force 1 in 1.2
The odds a teenager age 17 is not in the labor force 1 in 1.4
The odds a teenager age 15 is employed full-time 1 in 337
The odds a teenager age 16 is employed full-time 1 in 116
The odds a teenager age 17 is employed full-time 1 in 68.7
The odds a teenager age 15 is employed part-time 1 in 31.4
The odds a teenager age 16 is employed part-time 1 in 11.7
The odds a teenager age 17 is employed part-time 1 in 5.3
The odds a teenager age 15 looking for work is unemployed 1 in 79.3
The odds a teenager age 16 looking for work is unemployed 1 in 20.1
The odds a teenager age 17 looking for work is unemployed 1 in 15.3
SOURCE: US Census Bureau, America’s Families and Living Arrangements: 2010, Current Population Survey.
Dating Violence
The odds a female high school student will be a victim of dating violence—that is, “hit, slapped, or physically hurt on purpose”—by a boyfriend or girlfriend in a year are 1 in 10.8. A male student’s odds are slightly higher, at 1 in 10.5.
Sexual violence, too, often occurs early. The odds a female high school student will be forced to have sex in a year are 1 in 8.5. That’s over 10%—just in a year. For male students, the odds are lower but still substantial at 1 in 22.2.
SOURCE: DK Eaton, L Kann, S Kinchen, S Shanklin, KH Flint, J Hawkins, et al., “Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance—United States, 2011,” Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 61(4), June 8, 2012.
What Constitutes Being a Victim?
Teenagers can be victimized by the use of technology by a boyfriend or girlfriend, defined as:
Calling or texting to check up on him/her (e.g., to find out where he/she is or what he/she is doing) between midnight and 5 a.m.
Calling his/her cell phone to check up on him/her 20 or more times per hour.
Texting to check up on him/her more than 40 times per hour.
Sharing or threatening to share private or embarrassing pictures or videos of him/her.
1 in 4.2 high school students has been victimized by the use of technology by a boyfriend or girlfriend.
SOURCE: Family Violence Prevention Fund and Liz Claiborne, Teen Dating Abuse 2009 Key Topline Findings, 2009.
Not Everyone Makes It to
Graduation
Some are suspended…
The odds a student in a public primary or secondary school will be suspended in a year: 1 in 14.5
A few are expelled…
Average overall 1 in 476
Males 1 in 323
Females 1 in 909
Non-Hispanic white 1 in 714
Non-Hispanic black 1 in 213
Hispanic 1 in 455
Others drop out…
SOURCE: TD Snyder, SA Dillow, Digest of Education Statistics 2010 (NCES 2011-015). Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics, 2011.
The odds a student at a public high school will drop out by the end of the school year in:
Alabama 1 in 45.5
Alaska 1 in 13.7
Arizona 1 in 14.9
Arkansas 1 in 21.3
California 1 in 20
Colorado 1 in 15.6
Connecticut 1 in 35.7
Delaware 1 in 16.7
District of Columbia 1 in 18.2
Florida 1 in 30.3
Georgia 1 in 23.3
Hawaii 1 in 18.5
Idaho 1 in 50
Illinois 1 in 19.2
Indiana 1 in 58.8
Iowa 1 in 34.5
Kansas 1 in 40
Kentucky 1 in 35.7
Louisiana 1 in 13.3
Maine 1 in 22.7
Maryland 1 in 27.8
Massachusetts 1 in 29.4
Michigan 1 in 16.1
Minnesota 1 in 35.7
Mississippi 1 in 21.7
Missouri
1 in 20.4
Montana 1 in 19.2
Nebraska 1 in 40
Nevada 1 in 19.6
New Hampshire 1 in 33.3
New Jersey 1 in 58.8
New Mexico 1 in 19.2
New York 1 in 25.6
North Carolina 1 in 19.2
North Dakota 1 in 41.7
Ohio 1 in 23.3
Oklahoma 1 in 32.3
Oregon 1 in 26.3
Pennsylvania 1 in 38.5
Rhode Island 1 in 18.9
South Carolina 1 in 25.6
South Dakota 1 in 43.5
Tennessee 1 in 25.6
Texas 1 in 25
Utah 1 in 23.8
Virginia 1 in 37
Washington 1 in 17.5
West Virginia 1 in 22.7
Wisconsin 1 in 43.5
Wyoming 1 in 20
Making It to the
Ivy League: Admittance Rates
The odds an applicant to an Ivy League school will be admitted: 1 in 8
SOURCE: Book of Odds estimate based on US Department of Education, The Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System, 2009–10.
Guess Your Chances
SOURCE: US Department of Education, The Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System, 2009–10.
10
The Perfect Score
The odds a college-bound senior who took the SAT received the top score: 1 in 5,152
The odds a college-bound senior who took the ACT received the top score: 1 in 2,320
SOURCES: Communication with Courtney Stevenson, The College Board, September 11, 2009. Communication with Ed Colby, ACT Media Relations, September 11, 2009.
The odds a high school senior will take an AP test in a year: 1 in 3.5
The odds a student taking an AP test at any point in high school will receive a score of 3 or higher: 1 in 1.7
The odds a student taking an AP test at any point in high school will receive a score of 2 or lower: 1 in 2.5
SOURCE: The College Board, The 7th Annual AP Report to the Nation, February 9, 2011.
Paying for College
Student Aid
The odds an undergraduate student will receive any student aid are 1 in 1.5.
The odds an undergraduate student will receive grants are 1 in 1.9.
The odds an undergraduate student will receive federal financial aid in an academic year are 1 in 2.1.
The odds an undergraduate student will receive nonfederal financial aid in an academic year are 1 in 2.1.
The odds an undergraduate student will receive student loans are 1 in 2.6.
The odds an undergraduate student will receive nonfederal grants in an academic year are 1 in 2.6.
The odds an undergraduate student will receive federal loans in an academic year are 1 in 2.9.
The odds an undergraduate student will receive federal grants in an academic year are 1 in 3. 6.
The odds an undergraduate student will receive nonfederal loans in an academic year are 1 in 6.8.
The odds an undergraduate student will receive work-study are 1 in 13.5.
Percentage of undergraduate students receiving student aid:
SOURCE: TD Snyder, SA Dillow, Digest of Education Statistics 2009 (NCES 2010-013). Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics, 2010.
“Send Flowers to Admission Office”
The odds a waitlisted applicant to MIT will be admitted: 1 in 5.8
SOURCE: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Admissions Statistics, 2009.
Does Debt 101 Have a Final?
We’ve all heard the shocking statistics on personal and household debt leading into the recent financial crisis. Total household debt peaked in late 2008 at $12.7 trillion.
Things have improved. Household debt had declined by about $1.3 trillion by the second quarter of 2012. But there’s one area where debt is growing at an alarming rate. As the cost of higher education keeps going up, so do student loans. Over a decade, student loans have grown by $673 billion or 3.8 times. In fact, student loans outstanding are now larger than credit card debt, auto loan debt, and home equity lines of credit! Here is a comparison based on data collected by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York:
The cost of tuition? For public colleges, tuitions and fees have risen from $4,280 a year in 1996–97 to $8,240 in 2011–12. Even if you deduct grants and scholarships (which the College Board calls “net cost”), the cost has grown from $1,190 to $2,490. And private colleges are far more expensive. Their unadjusted tuition and fees have risen from $18,700 in the 1996–97 school year to $28,500 in 2011–12. After adjusting for grants and scholarships, the annual total is still $12,970, an increase from $10,630.
What makes the situation particularly troubling are the poor job prospects of current and recent graduates. Looking at Labor Department statistics, Northeastern University found that not only were many with bachelor’s degrees unemployed; others were underemployed, working at jobs they were overqualified for. In 2012, the total of those unemployed or underemployed with bachelor’s degrees and younger than 25 was about 1.5 million, or 1 in 1.9.
It is not surprising that students are finding it hard to pay back these loans. The Federal Reserve has noted that up to 47% of student loan borrowers seem to be in deferral or forbearance periods as of Q3, 2012, and that 21% or 1 in 4.8 of the outstanding student loan balances are delinquent.
As never before, students and their parents must look hard at the decision to borrow. Although an executive order has limited to 10% the amount that can be demanded from salaries to pay down student debt, providing relief to those with lower-paying jobs, student loans are not discharged by bankruptcy. Even people in their 60s, nearing the traditional age of retirement, are finding their Social Security checks tapped to pay back delinquent student loans. It seems hard to believe but as of 2011 there were nearly 2 million borrowers 60 and over owing in the aggregate more than $36.5 billion!
SOURCES: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Research and Statistic Group, Microeconomic Studies, Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, based on data from the FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel, August 2012. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, “New York Fed Quarterly Report Shows Student Loan Debt Continues to Grow,” press release, May 31, 2012. S Baum, J Ma, “Trends in College Pricing, 2011,” College Board Advocacy & Policy Center. A Sum, I Khatiwada, S Palma, The Employment Experiences and College Labor Market Job Characteristics of Young Adult Associate Degree and Bachelor Degree Recipients in Massachusetts and the US, prepared for Massachusetts Department of Higher Education, Research, Planning, and Information Systems, Boston, Massachusetts, February 2012. A Sum, I Khatiwada, S Palma, The Employment Experience, Annual Earnings, and Migration Behavior of Young Associate Degree and Bachelor Degree Holders in Massachusetts for Future Workforce Alignment, prepared for Massachusetts Department of Higher Education, Research, Planning, and Information Systems, Boston, Massachusetts, February 2012. The White House, Office of the Press Secretary, “We Can’t Wait: Obama Administration to Lower Student Loan Payments for Millions of Borrowers,” press release, October 25, 2011. M Brown, A Haughwout, D Lee, W van der Klaauw, “Grading Student Loans,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York, using data from FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax, March 5, 2012.
The Bills Keep Coming
The cost of college keeps going up—and tuition increases at public universities have even outpaced those of private universities. Some state schools are so strapped for cash they have resorted to charging students hundreds of dollars in extra fees.
• Average student total debt rose nearly 25% between 2004 and 2008, to $24,000.
• Students borrowed $75.1 billion just to get them through 2008–09.
• 39% of Americans under 35 reported in 2006 that it will take them more than 10 years to pay off their loans—and those predictions have gotten worse.
Many students have been forced to finance their lives while in school the way many Americans finance their lives: on credit. The odds are
1 in 1.2 that an undergrad has a credit card, and 1 in 2 he or she has at least four cards. Today’s students carry more cards than ever. They also have record-high balances. Between 1998 and 2008, the average credit card balance of college students increased more than one and a half times, from $1,879 to $3,173. And the balance can be hard to pay off, even with consistent effort.
The odds an undergrad will make more than the minimum payment each month but always carry a balance are 1 in 2.6.
SOURCES: The Project on Student Debt, Student Debt and the Class of 2008, December 2009, http://projectonstudentdebt.org/. T Lewin, “Burden of College Loans on Graduates Grows,” New York Times, April 11, 2011. AM Chaker, “Students Borrow More Than Ever for College,” Wall Street Journal, September 4, 2009. How Undergraduates Use Credit Cards, Sallie Mae’s National Study of Usage Rates and Trends, 2009.
How Families Pay for College
The odds a family will fund an undergraduate student’s educational expenses through…
a retirement account loan: 1 in 33.3
parents’ private educational loans: 1 in 25
a home equity loan or line of credit: 1 in 25
a student’s credit card: 1 in 20
parents’ credit card: 1 in 16.7
parents’ retirement savings withdrawal: 1 in 16.7
a Federal Parent Plus loan: 1 in 14.3
federal work-study: 1 in 12.5
a student’s private educational loans: 1 in 7.7
parents’ general savings or investments: 1 in 7.1
parents’ college savings fund: 1 in 6.7
a student’s savings: 1 in 6.7
relatives or friends: 1 in 6.3
federal student loans: 1 in 3.5
grants: 1 in 3.3
a student’s current income: 1 in 3.1
scholarships: 1 in 2.3
parents’ current income: 1 in 1.8