Book of Odds
Page 30
The odds a black adult believes most Americans are not racist: 1 in 2.3
SOURCE: Rasmussen Reports, “82% Have Favorable Opinion of Martin Luther King, Jr.,” January 17, 2011.
GENDER WARS
Family Values?
1 in 3.1 women vs. 1 in 2.6 men agree that it’s much better if the man is the achiever outside the home and the woman takes care of the home and family.
SOURCE: Book of Odds estimates based on JA Davis, TW Smith, PV Marsden, General Social Surveys, 1972–2008 [CUMULATIVE FILE] [Computer file] ICPSR04691, v. 1., Chicago: National Opinion Research Center, 2009 [producer]; Storrs, CT: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, University of Connecticut. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributors].
1 in 8.1: The odds an adult believes life achievement depends only on family background.
1 in 1.9: The odds an adult believes life achievement depends only on abilities and hard work.
SOURCE: Campbell Public Affairs Institute, “Inequality and the American Public, Results of the Fourth Annual Maxwell School Survey,” September 2007.
Attitudes Toward Gay Marriage by Demographic
The odds an adult favors same-sex marriage: 1 in 2.9
Do You Favor or Oppose Same-Sex Marriage?
SOURCES: “Americans’ Opposition to Gay Marriage Eases Slightly,” Gallup, press release, May 24, 2010. Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, Independents Take Center Stage in Obama Era: Trends in Political Values and Core Attitudes, 1987–2009, press release, May 21, 2009.
Divided We Stand
The odds an adult believes abortion should be legal in most/all cases: 1 in 2
The odds an adult believes abortion should be illegal in most/all cases: 1 in 2.3
The odds an adult believes “we should all be willing to fight for our country, whether it is right or wrong”: 1 in 1.9
The odds an adult does not believe “we should all be willing to fight for our country, whether it is right or wrong”: 1 in 2.4
SOURCE: Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, The Generation Gap and the 2012 Election, November 3, 2011.
Immigration
According to a June 2010 Pew poll, 1 in 1.5 people favors some sort of illegal immigrant forgiveness program that would allow illegal immigrants in the United States to gain citizenship if they meet a set of conditions, namely that they undergo background checks, pay some sort of fine, and have steady work. 1 in 3.3 opposes such a measure.
Immigration restriction has been a US legislative matter since 1882, when President Chester A. Arthur enacted the Chinese Exclusion Act, in response to fears that Chinese immigrants would overwhelm the job market. It was repealed sixty-one years later.
Even then, the issue was tightly bound to others, like employment, race, health care, and crime rates. Today, 1 in 1.7 adults believes immigrants take jobs that Americans do not want, while 1 in 3.3 believes immigrants take jobs away from Americans. In time those people whom anti-immigration laws are meant to exclude become political forces in their own right and these positions become impolitic, as the political aftermath of the Republican loss of the Hispanic vote in the 2012 elections demonstrates yet again. Gentler immigration policies are now on the agenda of both parties.
SOURCES: Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, Obama’s Ratings Little Affected by Recent Turmoil, June 24, 2010. Harvard University Library Open Collections Program, Aspiration, Acculturation, and Impact: Immigration to the United States, 1789–1930, http://ocp.hul.harvard.edu/immigration/.
Going in the Wrong Direction
The odds an adult is satisfied with the way things are going in the United States: 1 in 4.4
The odds an adult is dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States: 1 in 1.4
SOURCE: Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, Independents Take Center Stage in Obama Era: Trends in Political Values and Core Attitudes, 1987–2009, press release, May 21, 2009.
Death Penalty
1 in 1.6: The odds an adult favors the death penalty for persons convicted of murder.
1 in 3.5: The odds an adult opposes the death penalty for persons convicted of murder.
SOURCE: F Newport, “In U.S., 64% Support Death Penalty in Cases of Murder,” Gallup, press release, November 8, 2010.
Gun Control Laws
1 in 9.1: The odds an adult believes gun control laws should be less strict.
1 in 2.3: The odds an adult believes gun control laws should be kept as they are now.
1 in 2.3: The odds an adult believes gun control laws should be more strict.
SOURCE: JM Jones, “Record-Low 26% in U.S. Favor Handgun Ban,” Gallup, press release, October 26, 2011.
The odds a woman has a specific phobia 1 in 8.2
The odds a man has a specific phobia 1 in 17.2
SOURCE: Harvard School of Medicine, “National Comorbidity Survey (NCS-R) Appendix Tables,” July 19, 2007.
GENDER WARS
The odds a man owns a firearm 1 in 2.2
The odds a woman owns a firearm 1 in 4.3
SOURCE: L Saad, “Self-reported Gun Ownership in the US Is Highest Since 1993,” Gallup, press release, October 26, 2011.
Our Most Common Phobia
Few sights strike fear in the heart as surely as the sight of a snake headed in our direction. The odds that an adult is afraid of snakes are 1 in 2; the odds he or she is very afraid are 1 in 2.8.
The chances that a person will die from contact with a venomous snake or lizard in a year are just 1 in 37,420,000. But the odds an adult has ever been bitten by a snake or witnessed someone who has are 1 in 14.3.
SOURCES: G Brewer, “Snakes Top List of Americans’ Fears,” Gallup, press release, March 19, 2001. Harris Interactive, “What We Are Afraid Of,” Harris Poll #49, press release, August 18, 1999. Book of Odds estimate based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, WONDER online database, Compressed Mortality File. American Red Cross, Summer Safety March 2010 Polling.
Creepy Crawlies and the Creeps
The odds an adult is afraid of mice: 1 in 5
The odds an adult is very afraid: 1 in 10
The odds an adult is afraid of spiders or insects: 1 in 3.7
The odds an adult is very afraid: 1 in 8.3
The odds an adult is afraid of being home alone at night: 1 in 7.1
The odds an adult is very afraid: 1 in 33.3
SOURCES: L Saad, “Two in Three Americans Worry About Identity Theft,” Gallup, press release, October 6, 2009. Harris Interactive, “What We Are Afraid Of,” Harris Poll #49, press release, August 18, 1999.
Crime Worries
The odds an adult worries about being a victim of identity theft 1 in 1.5
The odds an adult worries about having his or her car stolen or broken into 1 in 2.1
The odds an adult worries about having his or her home burglarized when he or she is not there 1 in 2.2
The odds an adult worries about being a victim of terrorism 1 in 2.9
The odds an adult worries about having his or her home burglarized when he or she is there 1 in 3
The odds an adult worries about being mugged 1 in 3.2
The odds an adult worries about being attacked while driving 1 in 4.4
The odds an adult worries about being murdered 1 in 5.3
The odds an adult worries about being sexually assaulted 1 in 5.3
The odds an adult worries about being a victim of a hate crime 1 in 5.9
SOURCE: L Saad, “Two in Three Americans Worry About Identity Theft,” Gallup, press release, October 6, 2009.
Fear of Flying
The odds an airline passenger will be involved in a plane crash in a year are a slim 1 in 3,128,000. You’re more likely to die in a year because of measles (1 in 2,448,000), or being electrocuted (1,439,000). Arnold Barnett, the MIT statistician who follows aviation, has struggled for years to find a way to convey the relative safety of flights in the “first wo
rld.” He points out that passengers in the United States faced a death risk of 1 in 45,000,000 from 2008 to 2012. Barnett points out that a flyer could fly every day for an average of 123,000 years before experiencing a fatal crash. But reality often has little to do with what makes us nervous. For the 1 in 5.6 adults who fear flying (1 in 4.6 women, 1 in 7.1 men), here are some numbers:
Why so fearful?
1 in 3.7 says it’s because flying is inherently dangerous.
1 in 3.9 hates to hand over control.
What brings it on?
1 in 1.4 gets spooked by media coverage of crashes.
1 in 2.6 has had a bad experience on a plane.
The symptoms
1 in 1.2 feels the fear in his or her chest or heart.
1 in 1.3 feels the fear in his or her stomach.
1 in 1.3 breaks out in a sweat.
1 in 1.3 has thoughts of crashing.
1 in 1.5 has trouble focusing.
1 in 1.5 panics.
1 in 1.7 can’t stop thinking about dying.
What makes it worse?
1 in 1.03: A rough flight
1 in 1.04: Poor weather
1 in 1.11: Takeoff
1 in 1.19: Hearing plane noises
1 in 1.23: A flight with more than one leg
1 in 1.30: A long flight
1 in 1.41: Hectic preflight conditions
1 in 1.45: Flying alone
1 in 1.45: Landing
1 in 1.56: Night flights
1 in 1.72: Boarding time
1 in 1.79: A crowded cabin
1 in 1.82: Cabin announcements
1 in 1.85: Flight delays
What helps?
1 in 1.22: A friendly cabin attendant
1 in 1.25: Knowing more about planes
1 in 1.25: Seeing or talking to the pilot
1 in 1.30: A tranquilizer
1 in 1.39: Movies or music
1 in 1.54: Meditation or breathing exercises
1 in 1.69: Talking to people
1 in 1.75: Interesting reading material
Hope on the horizon?
1 in 1.3 believes the fear can be overcome.
1 in 1.8 believes the fear is irrational.
SOURCES: PlaneCrashInfo.com, Accident Database. Book of Odds estimate based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, WONDER online database, Compressed Mortality File. KD Kochanek, J Xu, SL Murphy, AM Miniño, HC Kung, “Death: Preliminary Data for 2009,” National Vital Statistics Report 59(4), March 16, 2011. StruckbyLightning.org/resources/statistics, 2008–2012. J Mouawad, C Drew, “Airline Industry at Its Safest Since the Dawn of the Jet Age,” New York Times, Business Day, February 11, 2013.
What Scares Us? Fears by Gender
SOURCE: G Brewer, “Gallup Fear Survey-Snakes Top List of Americans’ Fears,” Gallup, press release, March 19, 2001.
CHAPTER 11
ACCIDENTSAND DEATH
R.I.P.
The odds a person will die from a vending machine accident in a year: 1 in 112,000,000
SOURCE: US Consumer Product Safety Commission, Vending Machine Accidents, 1975–2005 data.
Deaths by Month
The Odds, by Month, a Death Will Occur:
SOURCE: National Center for Health Statistics, “Provisional Monthly and 12-Month Ending Number of Live Births, Deaths, and Infant Deaths and Rates: United States, January 2009–December 2010,” National Vital Statistics Report 58(25), 2010.
The Odds of
Dying in an Accident in a Year
by Age Group
The odds for:
infant 1 in 3,571
1–4 1 in 11,765
5–14 1 in 24,390
15–24 1 in 3,484
25–44 1 in 2,882
45–64 1 in 2,451
65 or older 1 in 1,006
person 1 in 2,618
SOURCE: KD Kochanek, J Xu, SL Murphy, AM Miniño, HC Kung, “Death: Preliminary Data for 2009,” National Vital Statistics Report 59(4), March 16, 2011.
GENDER WARS
The odds a woman’s death will be accidental: 1 in 2.8
The odds for a man: 1 in 1.5
SOURCE: Book of Odds estimates based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, WONDER online database, Compressed Mortality File, 1999–2006 data.
Falls
Are a Leading Cause of Accidental Deaths
The odds an accidental death will be due to a fall involving
falling down stairs: 1 in 69.1
falling off a ladder: 1 in 294
falling off a cliff: 1 in 1,458
falling from a tree: 1 in 1,144
playground equipment: 1 in 48,040
being dropped while carried by other people: 1 in 7,933
tumbling out of bed: 1 in 203
a wheelchair: 1 in 421
falling out of or off a building: 1 in 190
colliding with another person: 1 in 8,562
tripping or slipping: 1 in 175
falling off scaffolding: 1 in 1,965
furniture other than a bed: 1 in 444
ice or snow: 1 in 1,270
SOURCE: Book of Odds estimates based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, WONDER online database, Compressed Mortality File, 1999–2006 data.
Fatal Accidental Falls by Age Group
The odds a fatal accidental fall will occur to:
an infant 1 in 994
a child 1–4 1 in 403
a child 5–9 1 in 907
an adolescent 10–14 1 in 665
a teenager 15–19 1 in 187
an adult 20–24 1 in 111
an adult 25–34 1 in 53.5
an adult 35–44 1 in 26.4
an adult 45–54 1 in 15.9
an adult 55–64 1 in 14
an adult 65–74 1 in 8.3
an adult 75–84 1 in 3.4
an adult 85+ 1 in 2.7
SOURCE: Book of Odds estimates based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, WONDER online database, Compressed Mortality File, 1999–2006 data.
Some People Fall
into a Very Big Hole
The odds a person visiting the Grand Canyon will die during the trip
1 in 232,100
The odds a person visiting the Grand Canyon will:
fall to his or her death: 1 in 1,586,000
drown: 1 in 2,447,000
commit suicide: 1 in 3,059,000
be murdered: 1 in 8,156,000
die in a flash flood: 1 in 14,270,000
…or Drive Their Car into It
On July 14, 2009, a man drove off the South Rim behind Thunderbird Lodge, falling 600 feet to his death.
Amazingly, another man drove off the South Rim on April 27, 2011, falling this time 200 feet, the length of two basketball courts and then some, but survived.
There is no way to calculate the odds of survival when an event is this rare, but it is good to be reminded that black swans fly, to use the memorable term Nassim Nicholas Taleb made popular for unpredictable events of major import. This black swan did not change the world as, say, the Internet has, but for the driver its import could not have been much greater; let’s call it a black cygnet.
SOURCES: Books of Odds estimates based on data in MP Ghiglieri, TM Meyers, Over the Edge: Death in Grand Canyon, 1st ed., 13th rev., Flagstaff, AZ: Puma Press, 2006. Nicholas Taleb Nassim, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, 2nd ed., New York: Random House, 2010.
Drowning Deaths by Sex, Age, Race, and Type of Incident
The odds an accidental death will be due to drowning: 1 in 31.4
The odds the victim of a fatal drowning accident will be:
male 1 in 1.3
female 1 in 4.7
a white person 1 in 1.3
a black person 1 in 6.1
an infant 1 in 54.1
a child 1–4 1 in 7.4
a child 5–9 1 in 22.2
an adolescent 10–14 1 in 22.9
a teenager 15–19 1 in 10.7
&nbs
p; an adult 20–24 1 in 11.7
an adult 25–34 1 in 8.5
an adult 35–44 1 in 7.2
an adult 45–54 1 in 8.4
an adult 55–64 1 in 14
an adult 65–74 1 in 18.4
an adult 75–84 1 in 20.7
an adult 85 or older 1 in 45
SOURCE: Book of Odds estimates based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, WONDER online database, Compressed Mortality File, 1999–2006 data.
Keep Your Eye on the Kids
The odds an adult who reports having had a near-drowning experience was:
Younger than 5 years old at the time: 1 in 16.7
5–10 1 in 2.9
11–15 1 in 3.2
16–20 1 in 6.7
21 or older 1 in 8.3
SOURCE: American Red Cross, Water Safety Poll, March 31, 2009.
Traffic Fatalities by Age Group
The odds a child younger than 5 will be killed in a motor vehicle accident in a year:
1 in 47,915
The odds a child 5–9 will be killed in a motor vehicle accident in a year:
1 in 53,176
The odds an adolescent 10–15 will be killed in a motor vehicle accident in a year:
1 in 33,774
The odds a person 16–20 will be killed in a motor vehicle accident in a year:
1 in 5,558
The odds a person 21–24 will be killed in a motor vehicle accident in a year:
1 in 5,112
The odds a person 25–34 will be killed in a motor vehicle accident in a year:
1 in 7,169
The odds a person 35–44 will be killed in a motor vehicle accident in a year:
1 in 8,632
The odds a person 45–54 will be killed in a motor vehicle accident in a year:
1 in 8,275
The odds a person 55–64 will be killed in a motor vehicle accident in a year:
1 in 9,278
The odds a person 65–74 will be killed in a motor vehicle accident in a year:
1 in 8,811
The odds a person 75 or older will be killed in a motor vehicle accident in a year: