Great Powers

by Thomas P. M. Barnett

  The American System Perturbed: Katrina and the Gore Counternarrative

  357. If they had, as General David Petraeus told me . . . completely sealed their pessimism. December 8, 2005, interview for Barnett, “Monks of War.”

  358. According to former General Electric CEO Jack Welch . . . push to fix real problems. Jack Welch, “The Five Stages of Crisis-Management: After Katrina—and a Hurricane of Debate—a Well-Worn Pattern Emerges,” Wall Street Journal, September 14, 2005.

  358. Over 1,800 people had been killed . . . government donations from all over the world. See Blaine Harden and Shankar Vedantam, “Many Displaced by Katrina Turn to Relatives for Shelter,” Washington Post, September 8, 2005; Savage, Takeover, pp. 262-63, and 317-18; and Rick Jervis, “New Orleans May Have Hit a Plateau,” USA Today, August 4, 2008.

  359. Mexican troops, providing emergency aid . . . for the first time since 1846. See “Mexican Troops Aid Katrina Efforts,” Associated Press, September 8, 2005.

  359. Wal-Mart’s network prowess was . . . demand for recovery would be substantial. See Colby Bosh, “In Wal-Mart We Trust,” National Post, March 28, 2008; and Del Jones, “Next Time: Companies Are Pleased with Their Responses to Hurricane Katrina, but the Disaster Has Some Re-examining Their Plans,” USA Today, October 4, 2005.

  359. Erik Prince’s Blackwater . . . services aimed at domestic disaster operations. June 2, 2006 interview with Erik Prince, Moyock, North Carolina.

  359. But the aspect of Katrina . . . Diamond’s bestselling book of the same name. For Diamond’s own postmortem, see Beata Mostafavi, “Pulitzer Prize-Winning Author, Jared Diamond, Has Warning for America During His Speech at Mott Community College in Flint,” Flint Journal, April 18, 2008.

  360. Enter Al Gore, the perfect vessel . . . to President Bush’s “global war on terror.” See Al Gore, An Inconvenient Truth (New York: Rodale Books, 2006).

  361. As part of this project on globalization’s future . . . arising from Asia’s rapid development. Find the planning document and results of this exercise on my website: www.thomaspmbarnett.com/projects/newrulesset/nrs_index.html

  362. Three years later, Danish economist Bjørn Lomborg . . . Nobel Prize-winning experts. See Bjørn Lomborg, editor, Global Crises, Global Solutions (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2004), pp. 1-9.

  362. Lomborg later repeated the exercise . . . youth representatives from across the planet. See Bjørn Lomborg, Cool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist’s Guide to Global Warming (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2007), pp. 44-46.

  363. I would love to see humanity focus . . . Gap “colonialists”—the Chinese. My thanks to Matthew Garcia, NASA, for the “blue revolution” concept. On the Chinese, see “The New Colonialists: China’s Hunger for Natural Resources Is Causing More Problems at Home Than Abroad,” The Economist, March 15, 2008.

  364. As Lomborg argues . . . of life and the environment” for future generations. Lomborg, Cool It, p. 9.

  365. Human history . . . in hot climes than keep them warm in cold ones. Lomborg, Cool It, pp. 13-19.

  365. By 2100, average personal incomes . . . that equates to $27,000 today. Lomborg, Cool It, pp. 47-48.

  365. What we know from human history . . . you get per capita income above $3,000. Barnett, Pentagon’s New Map, p. 239.

  365. We also know that as incomes rise . . . and move toward political pluralism. See Yale University’s Environmental Performance Index, found online at epi.yale.edu/Home.

  365. Indeed, as Fareed Zakaria argues, democracies . . . slide back toward authoritarianism. Zakaria, Future of Freedom, p. 70.

  365. Sadly, the only sheer limit we can cite . . . seems to top out at roughly $20,000 per capita. Gregory Clark, A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2007), p. 375.

  365. Major urban areas, as Lomborg notes . . . still die from the cold than from the heat! Lomborg, Cool It, pp. 20-21.

  365. Whether you’re talking rising sea levels . . . “CO2 knob” down as far as possible. Lomborg, Cool It, p. 41.

  366. Lomborg sums up . . . with climate policies and a lot more with social policies.” Lomborg, Cool It, p. 113.

  366. My favorite recent example was the horrors of Darfur . . . blamed on global warming. See Ban Ki Moon (United Nations Secretary-General), “A Climate Culprit in Darfur,” Washington Post, June 16, 2007.

  The New Rules: From “United We Stand” to Demographic Demagoguery

  370. By 2025, rapidly aging Europe . . . the United States and its historical Western allies.” See Nicholas Eberstadt, “America the Fertile,” Washington Post, May 6, 2007.

  370. Between them, China and India have placed . . . well connected politically. See Chanda, Bound Together, p. 169.

  371. Europe’s challenge is to facilitate . . . ran for parliamentary seats in record numbers. See Molly Moore, “New French Political Cry: Liberté, Egalité, Diversité: Minorities Run for Parliament in Record Numbers,” Washington Post, June 10, 2007.

  371. For every frightened pundit (see Mark Steyn’s . . . and southward in coming decades. See Mark Steyn, America Alone: The End of the World as We Know It (Washington, DC: Regnery, 2006); and Khanna, Second World, pp. 3-9, 36-46, and 60-61.

  371. Some will argue that Europe . . . hardly the end of the world as we know it. See Elisabeth Rosenthal, “European Union’s Plunging Birthrates Spread Eastward,” New York Times, September 4, 2006.

  371. In fact, Spain’s recent “open border” . . . globalization’s stagnant backwaters. See “Spain: Immigrants Welcome; How Spain’s Open-Border Policy Is Driving an Economic and Social Revival,” BusinessWeek, May 21, 2007.

  372. Between 1978 and 2002 . . . for every decade they remained in the country. See “French Lessons: How to Create a Muslim Underclass,” Wall Street Journal, November 11, 2005.

  372. The same financial . . . home buyers in America over the next two decades. See Haya El Nasser, “Analysis Finds Boom in Hispanics’ Home Buying: Low Interest Rates, Flexible Loan Rules Contribute to Spike,” USA Today, May 11, 2006.

  372. Only 40 percent of Mexican immigrants . . . Hispanics do the same. See “Of Meat, Mexicans and Social Mobility: Among the Very Poor, the American Dream Is Alive and Well,” The Economist, June 17, 2006; and Linda Chavez, “The Great Assimilation Machine,” Wall Street Journal, June 5, 2007.

  373. Immigrant Latinos open new businesses at a rate three times the national norm. “Of Meat, Mexicans and Social Mobility,” The Economist.

  373. They’re also replenishing the ranks . . . economy’s skyrocketing demand for food. See Frederick Kunkle, “The Changing Face of Farm Labor: Frederick Dairy Reflects Growing Importance of Latino Immigrants,” Washington Post, September 15, 2005.

  373. If you’re a Boomer heading . . . same schooling as their white counterparts. See Miriam Jordan, “Boomers’ Good Life Tied to Better Life for Immigrants,” Wall Street Journal, May 7, 2007.

  373. Hell, if serving in our military gets you . . . equally utilitarian golden ticket. See Thomas L. Friedman, “Laughing and Crying,” New York Times, May 23, 2007.

  373. As Michael Barone points out . . . the flow diminished spectacularly. Michael Barone, “The Newest Americans,” Wall Street Journal, April 11, 2006.

  374. So the answer isn’t building a bigger wall . . . Berlin Wall across its entire history. See Chanda, Bound Together, p. 213.

  The New Normal: Apocalypse Soon

  377. A good example is the theory of “peak oil.” The article that started it all is M. K. Hubbert, “Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels,” presented before the Spring Meeting of the Southern District, American Petroleum Institute, Plaza Hotel, San Antonio, Texas, March 7-9, 1956.

  378. Cambridge Energy Research Associates . . . requirements notwithstanding. See Cambridge Energy Resource Associates, “Why the ‘Peak Oil’ Theory Falls Down—Myths, Legends, and the Future of Oil Resources,” November 10, 2006, found online at cera.ecnext.com/coms2/summary_0236-821_ITM.
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  378. Probably the strongest recent . . America”—italics and exclamation points included! Friedman, Hot, Flat, and Crowded, p. 9.

  380. At the Cold War’s end, Asia . . . global demand center, dislodging North America. See data from the U.S. Department of Energy’s International Energy Outlook 2006 report (the 2007 report did not include a chart on global oil trade), found online at www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/archive/ieo06/pdf/tbl4.pdf.

  380. Indonesia became a net importer . . . oil company to foreign direct investment. See Peter Millard and David Luhnow, “Crunch Time for Mexican Oil: Political Will Lacking for Production Overhaul as Output Tumbles,” Wall Street Journal, February 15, 2008.

  380. His latest scheme involves Venezuela’s . . . import foodstuffs currently in short supply. See Simon Romero, “Venezuela’s Gas Prices Remain Low, but the Political Costs May Be Rising,” Wall Street Journal, October 30, 2007.

  380. Because the NOCs own roughly 90 percent . . . to finance these on their own. See Guy Chazan and Russell Gold, “Big Oil’s Not-So-Big Growth Plans: With New Reserves Harder to Snag, Western Firms Could Opt for Smaller Role,” Wall Street Journal, January 31, 2008.

  381. When Chevron . . . went from 65,000 barrels a day to over 200,000. Jad Mouawad, “Oil Innovations Pump New Life into Old Wells,” New York Times, March 5, 2008.

  382. Simply put, it’s hard to imagine Asia quadrupling . . . even if it could import enough oil. See Gordon Fairclough and Shai Oster, “As China’s Auto Market Booms, Leaders Clash over Heavy Toll: Vehicles Foul Air, Jam Streets but Plump Local Coffers; Restrictions Remain Few,” Wall Street Journal, June 13, 2006.

  382. The world took over a century to field its first billion cars . . . existing oil fields. Iain Carson and Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran, Zoom: The Global Race to Fuel the Car of the Future (New York: Twelve, 2007), p. 197.

  382. Other experts take a more optimistic tack . . . fuel-cell ultralights (got that?). Amory Lovins et al., Winning the Oil Endgame: Innovation for Profits, Jobs, and Security (Snowmass, CO: Rocky Mountain Institute, 2007), p. 241.

  382. As automotive visionary . . . oil use is inevitable; the only question is how fast.” Lovins et al., Winning the Oil Endgame, p. 228.

  383. Lovins notes that most shifts “down” . . . but hardly disappearing altogether. Lovins et al., Winning the Oil Endgame, p. 229.

  383. Lovins thinks it will happen in roughly half that time, or by 2030. Lovins et al., Winning the Oil Endgame, p. 229.

  383. As noted Chinese expert Elizabeth Economy . . . the biodiversity of the country.” Elizabeth C. Economy, The River Runs Black: The Environmental Challenge to China’s Future (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2004), p. 28.

  384. As it is, the Chinese Communist Party . . . focused on protecting the environment. Economy, River Runs Black, p. 130.

  384. In general, Economy finds . . . so long as access to new technology is facilitated. Economy, River Runs Black, p. 16.

  385. Already, we can see a serious “green awakening” . . . seniormost leadership. See “Visions of Ecopolis: China Has Ambitious Plans to Build a Model ‘Eco-City’ Near Shanghai. How Green Will It Be?” The Economist, September 23, 2006; Jane Spencer, “How Weak Pollution Controls May Be Causing a Drag on China’s Economic Growth,” Wall Street Journal, October 2, 2006; Ariana Eunjung Cha, “In China, a Green Awakening: City Clamps Down on the Polluting Factories That Built Its Economy,” Washington Post, October 6, 2007; and Jen Phillips, “China’s Green Movement,” Mother Jones, December 11, 2007.

  385. As a recent World Bank study pointed out . . . the least amount of corruption. See David Dollar, “China’s Golden Cities,” Newsweek, July 10, 2006.

  385. When the first oil shocks struck in the 1970s . . . was not surpassed until 1989. See the chart, Lovins et al., Winning the Oil Endgame, p. 15.

  386. Lovins himself likes to point out . . . moving the car’s occupants forward. Cited in Carson and Vaitheeswaran, Zoom, p. 37.

  The Global Accelerant: The Greatest Awakening

  387. Worse, abundance allows for “chosen families” . . . iron logic of “given families.” See Dough Muder, “Red Family, Blue Family,” February 2005, found online at www.gurus.com/dougdeb/politics/209.html.

  390. Religion, at its core . . . to the needs of the people in their time. For a fascinating exploration of this function in early Christianity, see Daniel H. Abbott, Revolutionary Strategies in Early Christianity (Ann Arbor, MI: Nimble Books LLC, 2008).

  391. America’s Second Great Awakening . . . revivalism with those of republicanism.” Prothero, Religious Literacy, pp. 89-90.

  391. By that, Prothero means that evangelical . . . influx of the Roman Catholic Irish). Prothero, Religious Literacy, p. 70.

  391. This is the essential compromise . . . and Jesus the Messiah, respectively). See Mark Lilla, The Stillborn God: Religion, Politics and the Modern West (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2007), p. 30.

  391. In this sense, Prothero argues . . . supremacy and granting all freedom of operation. Prothero, Religious Literacy, p. 25.

  392. A good New Core country . . . and increasingly from the Gap to the Core. See Kevin Sullivan, “Foreign Missionaries Find Fertile Ground in Europe: Singaporean Pastor Fires Up Staid Danes,” Washington Post, June 11, 2007; and Leslie Hook, “Further Fervor: Missionaries Go from East to West,” Wall Street Journal, August 3, 2007.

  395. As French Islamic expert Olivier Roy . . . within globalization as a whole. Olivier Roy (translated by George Holoch), Secularism Confronts Islam (New York: Columbia University Press, 2007), pp. vii-xiii and 73-77.

  395. Again, America represents the leading edge . . . same faith his entire life—to date). See Michelle Boorsteing and Jacqueline L. Salmon, “In Major Poll, U.S. Religious Identity Appears Very Slippery,” Washington Post, February 26, 2008.

  396. According to Roy, it is . . . and (5) highly communitarian by choice instead of heritage. Roy, Secularism Confronts Islam, p. 69.

  The Inescapable Realignment: Resurrecting the Progressive Agenda

  397. By doing so, America has made possible . . . for the first time in human history. See Clark, Farewell to Alms, pp. 1-16.

  398. But here’s the trick: As long as man stayed Malthusian . . . A Farewell to Alms. Clark, Farewell to Alms, pp. 19-39.

  398. By 2020, the global middle class should . . . (a tenfold increase in a generation’s time). See Naim, “Can the World Afford a Middle Class?”

  400. In that process of network . . . wrung out of the system. In many ways, this is the “green revolution” that Thomas Friedman now craves for the United States in its global leadership role in this worldwide era of frontier integration; see his Hot, Flat, and Crowded, pp. 170-99.

  The consumption shift

  400. Right now the advanced Old Core West . . . 32 times higher than the rest of the world. See Jared Diamond, “What’s Your Consumption Factor?” New York Times, January 2, 2007.

  400. As Jared Diamond . . . “living standards are not tightly coupled to consumption rates.” Diamond, “What’s Your Consumption Factor?”

  401. So, as Jeffrey Sachs argues . . . a condition he dubs “globalization without trust.” Sachs, Common Wealth, p. 7.

  The food and water shift

  401. Here’s the lay of the land when it comes . . . sub-Saharan Africa at 17, and Europe at 12. See Anthony Faiola, “The Economics of Hunger: A Brutal Convergence of Events Has Hit an Unprepared Global Market,” Washington Post, April 27, 2008.

  401. The Middle East imports just over three-quarters . . . imports half that percentage. See Anthony Faiola, “In Mauritania, Every Meal Becomes a Sacrifice,” Washington Post, April 28, 2008.

  402. Basically, the tech-rich regions that are net . . . will do decidedly worse—save Europe. See Lomborg, Cool It (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2007), pp. 103-5.

  402. This is why farmers in the Dakotas . . . advanced agricultural system. See John W. Miller, “In Ukraine, Mavericks Gamble on Scarce Land,” Wall Street Journal, May
12, 2008, and Andrew E. Kramer, “Russia’s Lazy Collective Farms Are a Hot Capitalist Property,” New York Times, August 31, 2008.

  402. It is also why the Chinese government . . . foreign lands with nobody noticing. See Jamil Anderlini, “Beijing Looks at Foreign Fields in Push to Guarantee Food Supplies: China Losing Its Ability to Be Self-Sufficient,” Financial Times, May 9, 2008; and Meena Janardhan, “Gulf Eyes Oil-for-Food Pacts,” Asian Times, June 20, 2008.

  402. Good luck with that transparent strategy . . . can rise to as high as four-fifths. See Faiola, “Economics of Hunger” and “Every Meal Becomes a Sacrifice.”

  402. Today, only a small fraction of worldwide . . . 7 percent of rice and 12 percent of corn. See Faiola, “Economics of Hunger.”

  The transportation shift

  403. As Iain Carson and Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran . . . threshold of economic pain has lowered. Carson and Vaitheeswaran, Zoom, pp. 1 and 10.

  403. Because China will soon become . . . to make Asia their future global center of R&D. See Gordon Fairclough, “Bill Ford Jr.: For Auto Makers, China Is the New Frontier,” Wall Street Journal, October 27, 2006; Keith Bradsher, “China’s Automakers, With Beijing’s Prodding, Show Alternative-Fuel Cars: An Unexpected Array of Hybrids as Well as Hydrogen Power,” New York Times, April 21, 2007; Amy Chozick, “Japan’s Auto Giants Steer Toward China: Toyota, Nissan, Honda Refocus Their Efforts as U.S. Demand Slows,” Wall Street Journal, May 16, 2007; Fairclough, “China Is Becoming Chrysler’s Test Track for Growth,” Wall Street Journal, August 20, 2007; and Rebecca Blumenstein, “GM to Invest in Green Technology in China: Move Shows How Important Nation Is to the Auto Industry,” Wall Street Journal, October 30, 2007.

  The energy shift

  404. So one of the key items . . . generation of electricity across the planet. For a nonideological take on nuclear power’s future promise, see Gwyneth Cravens, Power to Save the World: The Truth About Nuclear Energy (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2007).