How We Believe, 2nd Ed.

by Michael Shermer

  The reasons Time gave for God’s death are telling for the age. An obituary for God published in the Methodist student magazine Motive, for example, was chosen as an emblem of this new throwaway theology: “ATLANTA, Ga., Nov. 9—God, creator of the universe, principal deity of the world’s Jews, ultimate reality of Christians, and most eminent of all divinities, died late yesterday during major surgery undertaken to correct a massive diminishing influence.” The cause of this declining impact was attributed to “secularization, science, urbanization—all have made it comparatively easy for the modern man to ask where God is, and hard for the man of faith to give a convincing answer, even to himself.” Particularly with the rise of modern science, “slowly but surely, it dawned on men that they did not need God to explain, govern or justify certain areas of life.” Even the old standby threat of eternal punishment in hell was impotent. “Unlike in earlier centuries, there is no way for churches to threaten or compel men to face that leap; after Dachau’s mass sadism and Hiroshima’s instant death, there were all too many real possibilities of hell on earth.”

  Reader reactions to what is arguably the most famous and controversial cover story in Time’s seventy-five-year history (generating more letters—3,430—than any issue before or since) were at once amusing and instructive (April 15, 1966, 13). “No,” said a Chicago reader. “Yes,” proclaimed a Notre Dame professor. “Not only is God dead—he never was,” pronounced the president of the Freethinkers of America. Equally vehement was this letter from a reader in Mount Vernon, New York: “Your ugly cover is a blasphemous outrage and, appearing as it does during Passover and Easter week, an affront to every believing Jew and Christian.” A more measured response came from a ministerial student at Concordia Seminary in St. Louis: “God is dead to those who wish him so; he lives for those who hope in him.” The most accurate, however, came from a rather unexpected source—Jay North, best known as television’s Dennis the Menace (May 6, 1966, 9): “In sending you my views I realize I have two strikes against me: I am a teen-ager, and I am in show business. In neither category does much religious thought go on, according to the public … . I have found, too, that the citizens of Hollywood are as strong in their devotion as are their priests and ministers and rabbis. This God-is-dead premise seems to me merely a fad; religion will live through it.” How right the menacing Mr. North would turn out to be.

  GOD’S RESURRECTION

  From Nietzsche’s pronouncement to Time’s declaration that he was right took eighty years. Another thirty should have buried him for good, no? No. A Gallup poll of American adults published in the Wall Street Journal on January 30, 1996, reported that 96 percent believe in God, 90 percent believe in heaven, 79 percent believe in miracles, 73 percent believe there is a hell, 72 percent believe there are angels, and 65 percent believe the devil is real. A gender gap was evident for two beliefs: Women outnumbered men in belief in miracles (86 percent women versus 71 percent men) and angels (78 percent women versus 65 percent men). Not surprisingly, education makes a difference, but not as much as one might think. Belief in heaven, for example, breaks down as follows: college postgraduates: 75 percent; college graduates: 80 percent; some college: 90 percent; no college: 94 percent. The 20 percent range gap deflects from the reality that three out of four people with master’s and doctorate degrees believe in heaven. Who says God is dead?

  Other polls corroborate God’s vitality, such as George Barna’s 1996 Index of Leading Spiritual Indicators, which reported a 93 percent figure of belief, and his 1995 poll revealing that 87 percent say their religious faith is very important in their lives. (Interestingly, the 1996 poll also showed that 30 percent of believers described “God” as a deity other than the biblical God: 11 percent saw God as a higher consciousness; 8 percent said God is the total realization of personal human potential; 3 percent voiced a belief in many gods each with his or her own power and authority; and 3 percent reported that everyone is his or her own god.) While some believers occasionally have doubts, a 1997 Pew Research Center survey reported that a remarkable 71 percent of Americans say that they “never doubt the existence of God” (up from 60 percent in a 1987 survey). Even in Southern California, that bastion of New Age spiritualism, God is alive and well, as noted in a 1991 Los Angeles Times poll in which 91 percent of respondents reported believing in “God or a universal spirit,” 67 percent believing in “life after death,” and 67 percent believing in heaven.

  SUPPLY-SIDE RELIGION AND THE SECULARIZATION OF THE WORLD

  At the beginning of the twentieth century social scientists predicted that with the advent of universal public education and the rise of science and technology, culture would become secularized and religiosity would dramatically decrease. This “secularization” thesis has been thoroughly refuted, as religiosity continues to increase at the end of and into the next century. The question is, why?

  According to the University of Chicago sociologist of religion, Andrew Greeley, in an economic explanation, one of the reasons is that as the century progressed a free market of religious competition increased and diversified, causing religions and churches to compete with one another for customers. In a paper delivered to the 1997 American Sociological Association meeting in Toronto, entitled “Pie in the Sky While You’re Alive: Life after Death and Supply Side Religion,” Greeley demonstrated that belief in an afterlife rose from 65 percent to 84 percent among Catholics, and from 24 percent to 40 percent among Jews; the latter statistic is surprising because belief in life after death normally decreases proportionally with education, and Jews are among the most educated of all religious groups. (Protestants remained steady at 80 percent.) Even those with no religious affiliation showed an increase in belief in life after death, from 31 percent to 50 percent. These statistics, says Greeley, fly in the face of our intuitive thoughts about the rise of science and the decline of religion: “A furious battle is raging in social science about religion. Traditional theories have emphasized the decline of religion as part of an inevitable process of ‘secularization.’ In the face of scientific progress, the growth of rationality, and the elimination of superstition, religion is seen retreating, as Durkheim said it would, to the periphery of society.” But Greeley’s data, along with the polls cited above, show that Durkheim, along with Time and Nietzsche, were wrong. Why? Greeley tests an interesting theory of supply-side religion:

  They argue that the “demand” for religion is relatively constant since the need of “compensation” because of death and suffering is a given in society and that the different levels of religious behavior that one can observe in various regions of a country like the United States and in various countries are the result of the available “supply” of religious services. In a controlled religious marketplace, they assert, religion becomes a lazy monopoly because the Established Church (or Established Churches as in Germany) need not compete for “customers.” On the other hand, when there is no legal monopoly various “firms” must compete for “customers” and hence provide more industrious personnel and more services. In such situations religious activity increases.

  Economic theories of religion date back at least as far as Adam Smith’s 1776 publication The Wealth of Nations, in which he observed that market forces govern churches no differently than they do secular firms. But Greeley looks to a deeper cause that he thinks can be found in two fundamental principles of human biology and psychology, which together form the beginning of our answer to the question of how we believe: “Humankind is born with two incurable diseases, life from which it inevitably dies and hope which hints that death may not be the end. A conviction that life does not end with death is a tentative endorsement of the validity of hope.” The “product” sold by these religious “corporations” competing in the spiritual “marketplace” is life after death. Sales are on the rise. All market indicators are positive. Indeed, Greeley found that only 0.8 percent of Americans call themselves “hard-core atheists” (who believe there is no God or life after death), and a me
re 3.4 percent “soft-core” atheists (who are at least “open” to the possibility of God and life after death, but do not presently believe).

  Greeley, and his colleague Wolfgang Jagodzinski from the University of Cologne, based their findings on data gathered from 19,381 respondents interviewed from 1973 to 1994 in the General Social Surveys conducted by the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago. They found a statistically significant increase in belief in life after death across generations, especially in the immigrant shift from old-world monopolies to the new-world open marketplace. Greeley explained the demographics of his study:

  Unnoticed by scholars at the time or since that time, American society and its open marketplace of religious firms was exercising substantial influence on the religious belief of immigrants since the turn of the century. Among other things this influence increased dramatically across generations belief in life after death. This discovery simply cannot be explained by the “secularization” theory and is quite compatible with the “supply side” theory:

  religious competition does seem to generate and increase hope.

  This message is not lost on religious leaders who must compete for members of the various religious beliefs and congregations in this supply-side model. As Greeley concluded: “In a competitive religious marketplace like the United States the clergy must work hard at what they are supposed to be doing: preaching a message of hope in the face of the tragedies of life.” Clearly religion plays an important role in society that has not been filled by secular institutions, and since none has ever offered a “product” competitive with life after death, belief in God and religiosity has increased as a market response.

  SOCIAL INDICATORS OF GOD

  Contrary to the rhetoric of modern conservative fundamentalists—who proclaim that Americans have turned away from God and that we need to return to that “old-time religion”—as a people we have never been so religious. In a revealimg book, The Churchiring of America, 17761990, the authors point out that for the past two centuries American church membership rates have risen from a paltry 17 percent at the time of the Revolution (!), to 34 percent by the middle of the nineteenth century, to over 60 percent today. Bully-pulpit preachers who remind us regularly that we are slouching ever further toward cultural depravity and godless hedonism could not be more wrong. “New-time” religion far outstrips our forebears’ religiosity. Proof of that can be found in any number of cultural signposts.

  Consider a spate of Time magazine cover stories over the past decade: June 10, 1991: “Evil: Does It Exist—Or Do Bad Things Just Happen?” April 10, 1995: “Can We Still Believe in Miracles?” December 18, 1995: “Is the Bible Fact or Fiction?” October 28, 1996: “And God Said … Betrayal. Jealousy. Careerism. They’re All in the Bible’s First Book. Now There’s a Spirited New Debate over the Meaning of Genesis.” March 24, 1997: “Does Heaven Exist’?”

  Not to be outdone, Newsweek’s March 31, 1997, issue addresses “The Mystery of Prayer: Does God Play Favorites?” U.S. News and World Report countered the same week with “Life after Death: Science’s Search for Meaning in Near-Death Experiences.” An earlier, December 19, 1994, cover reads: “Waiting for the Messiah: The New Clash over the Bible’s Millennial Prophecies.”

  Religiosity is more than just belief in God, of course. It is the full package that includes heaven and life after death. In a poll of 1,018 adult Americans conducted on March 11 and 12, 1997, Time reported that belief in heaven is still quite strong, with 81 percent reporting belief, and 88 percent looking forward to meeting “friends and family members in heaven” when they die. Newsweek’s feature article title asked: “Is God Listening?” According to their poll, conducted by the Princeton Survey Research Associates on March 20 to 21, 1997, 87 percent of Americans believe the answer is “yes,” with 29 percent reporting that they pray more than once a day and 25 percent at least once a day.

  For some people, they know there is an afterlife Because they have experienced it through a “near-death experience.” A U.S. News and World Report poll, for example, notes that of the nearly 18 percent of Americans who claimed to “have been on the verge of dying, many researchers estimate that a third have had unusual experiences while straddling the line between life and death—perhaps as many as 15 million Americans. A small percentage recall vivid images of an afterlife—including tunnels of light, peaceful meadows, and angelic figures clad in white.” Pediatric oncologist Diane Komp, who has talked to more than a few children about such experiences, concludes: “I came away convinced that these are real spiritual experiences.” Everyone seems to agree that near-death experiences are genuine “experiences,” in the sense that the individuals have had something happen to them, which they report as being life changing. Floating out of the body, passing through some sort of tunnel, hallway, or canyon, the white light at the end of the tunnel, seeing your lost loved ones on the “other side,” are common elements reported by many. Whether the near-death experience represents a bridge to the “other side” is another matter, but those who experience it often treat it as a religious or spiritual awakening.

  In addition to God and the afterlife, miracles are staging a comeback. A recent Canadian poll reveals that more than half the respondents reported a belief in angels, and nearly as many said they had personally experienced a miracle or divine intervention (again, women were almost twice as likely to believe as men). Some miracles involved petitionary prayer, such as asking for a loved one to be saved from a serious illness, while other miracles were attributed to chance encounters and good fortune. One person noted that he had stopped his car to take a photograph, thereby missing a fatal accident by three minutes. Another reported: “My aunt was on a life support system and the doctors told my family that she was dead and they were going to turn off the life support system. They forgot to turn it off and the next morning they found her alive, breathing, and talking.” Other miracles were more mundane: “I was talking to somebody telling them I was broke and someone heard me talking about it and they came to my door and took me shopping for groceries.” Still others held rather low standards for what constitutes the miraculous: “I went to someone’s house and got a good deal on a power tool that I wanted for a long time.”

  Perhaps the most significant religious cultural phenomenon of the 1990s was the Promise Keepers, a well-organized group of men who “promise” to take responsibility for their lives through the Seven Promises of (1) “honoring Jesus Christ,” (2) “pursuing vital relationships with a few other men,” (3) “practicing spiritual, moral, ethical, and sexual purity,” (4) “building strong marriages and families through love, protection and biblical values,” (5) “supporting [the] church by honoring and praying for [one’s own] pastor,” (6) “reaching beyond any racial and denominational barriers to demonstrate the power of biblical unity,” and (7) “influencing His world, being obedient to the great commandment (Mark 12: 3031) and the great commission (Matthew 28: 1920).” Openly antigay, antiabortion, and antifeminist, Promise Keepers members rally against the standard targets the Christian right loves to hate: atheism and evolution, and the perceived moral degradation of America that comes with them. Begun in 1991 with a fledgling 4,200 members, by late 1997 the group had grown to 1.25 million, with an annual revenue of $87 million and a paid staff of 452 working out of its Denver headquarters. Expanding their ranks (Promise Keepers often speak in military terms, such as the “army of God” and “wake-up calls,” and they have even hired retired military officers), founder Bill McCartney explains their long-term plan: “The goal is to go into every church whether they like us or not.” McCartney told 39,000 pastors in Atlanta to “take this nation for Jesus … whoever stands with the messiah will rule with him.” When half a million men blanketed the Washington, D.C., Mall on October 4, 1997, it was the largest religious rally in American history.

  Even television, that quintessential morass of moral decay, has been heeding this trend. At the start of the 1997 season, vi
ewers, accustomed to the likes of such sinfully tantalizing shows as Baywatch and Melrose Place, were treated to an unprecedented eight programs with religious or spiritual themes. According to a March 1997 TV Guide poll, 61 percent of those surveyed indicated they wanted to see more references to God in prime time. And according to a Parents Television Council survey, since 1993 the depiction of religious symbols and spiritualism on national television increased 400 percent.

  Book sales also reflect these trends. The American Booksellers Association (ABA), for example, reported that books on religion and spirituality rose 112 percent between 1991 and 1996. And from 1996 to 1997 books on religion were the only type of adult nonfiction whose sales were steadily rising. In 1997, for example, among national bestseller lists such as in the New York Times and Publishers Weekly, religion and spirituality titles averaged five spots among the top fifteen. Examples included Michael Drosnin’s The Bible Code, Neale Donald Walsh’s Conversations with God, and Billy Graham’s autobiography. James Van Praagh’s Talking to Heaven had a remarkable run of over three consecutive months as the number-one bestselling book in America, with sales approaching a million copies. According to the ABA, publishers are calling for books that bridge the gap between scholarly depth and everyday spirituality. The mantra is “make it popular and serious.” Today’s readers, while skeptical of easy answers and shallow summaries of complex problems, still desire a sense of the sacred, or what is called “lived religion.” ABA’s Willard Dickerson says the trend highlights a “growing hunger in the public reading market for answers that go past the secular or materialistic cultures.”