Dreams and Shadows: The Future of the Middle East

by Robin Wright

  43.Abigail Hauslohner, “Egypt Monitoring Group Reports Vote Fraud.” Reuters, June 13, 2007.

  44.Paul Schemm, “Egyptian-American Academic Fears Arrest if He Returns Home from U.S.” Associated Press, Aug. 26, 2007.

  45.Saad Eddin Ibrahim, “Egypt’s Unchecked Repression.” The Washington Post, Aug. 21, 2007.

  CHAPTER FOUR: LEBANON: THE DREAMERS

  1.“Index Ranks Middle East Freedom,” BBC News, Nov. 18, 2005. The Economist Intelligence Unit ranked twenty countries based on fifteen indicators of political and civil liberty. The ratings were:

  Israel 8.20

  Lebanon 6.55

  Morocco 5.20

  Iraq 5.05

  Palestine 5.05

  Kuwait 4.90

  Tunisia 4.60

  Jordan 4.45

  Qatar 4.45

  Egypt 4.30

  Sudan 4.30

  Yemen 4.30

  Algeria 4.15

  Oman 4.00

  Bahrain 3.85

  Iran 3.85

  United Arab Emirates 3.70

  Saudi Arabia 2.80

  Syria 2.80

  Libya 2.05

  2.Ramsay Short, A Hedonist’s Guide to Beirut (London: Filmer, 2005), p. 134.

  3.“Censors Raid Beirut’s Virgin Megastore,” BBC News, Jan. 7, 2002.

  4.Background Notes: Lebanon, U.S. Department of State, Aug. 2005, p. 2. The United States reports that as many as seven percent of Lebanon’s population was killed during the war, which is higher than most estimates. The generally accepted figures range from 100,000 to 150,000 killed, with some 100,000 injured or handicapped, and up to 17,000 missing.

  5.Susan Sachs, “Rafiq Hariri Is Dead at 60; Ex-premier of Lebanon,” The New York Times, Feb. 15, 2005.

  6.Ghassan Charbel “The Long Interview: Rafiq al Hariri,” Al Hayat, reprinted in English in The Journal of Turkish Weekly, Feb. 17, 2005.

  7.Gary C. Gambill, and Ziad K. Abdelnour, “Dossier: Rafiq Hariri,” Middle East Intelligence Bulletin, vol. 3, no. 7, July 2001.

  8.Ghassan Charbel, “The Long Interview: Rafiq al Hariri.” Hariri told Al Hayat that his personal contribution to reconstruction of Beirut’s war-ravaged commercial district downtown was $125 million, or about seven percent of the total.

  9.Ethan Bronner, “A Builder in Lebanon; New Prime Minister Wealthy, Fiercely Dedicated,” The Boston Globe, Mar. 22, 1993.

  10.Oussama Safa, “Lebanon Springs Forward,” Journal of Democracy, vol. 17, no. 1, Jan. 2006, pp. 28–34.

  11.Nora Boustany, “Lebanon’s Sorrow: Hariri’s Murderers Were Targeting Democracy,” The Washington Post, Feb. 20, 2005.

  12.Oussama Safa, “Lebanon Springs Forward.”

  13.Gary C. Gambill and Ziad K. Abdelnour, “Dossier: Rafiq Hariri.”

  14.Ethan Bronner, “A Builder in Lebanon.”

  15.Oussama Safa, “Lebanon Springs Forward.”

  16.Robin Wright and Colum Lynch, “Syria Blamed in Death of Hariri; U.N. Also Faults Lebanese Officials,” The Washington Post, Oct. 21, 2005.

  17.United Nations Security Council report by investigator Detlev Mehlis, circulated Oct. 20, 2005.

  18.Hassan M. Fattah, “Wails at Loss of Lebanese Leader, Cries for His Vision,” The New York Times, Feb. 17, 2005.

  19.Megan K. Stack, “Mourners in Lebanon Say Syria Must Go,” Los Angeles Times, Feb. 17, 2005.

  20.Megan K. Stack, “Son of Slain Former Leader Triumphs in Beirut Vote,” Los Angeles Times, May 30, 2005.

  21.Lally Weymouth, “The Next Prime Minister?” The Washington Post, May 29, 2005.

  22.Scott MacLeod, “Days of Cedar,” Time Europe, vol. 166, no. 15, Oct. 10, 2005.

  CHAPTER FIVE: LEBANON: THE SHADOWS

  1.David Ignatius, “An Interview with Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah,” The Washington Post, Feb. 3, 2006.

  2.Of the fourteen, four are independents who are aligned with Hezbollah and vote with the party. Two are Sunni and one is Maronite.

  3.Hassan Nasrallah, speech addressing the nation on the publication of cartoons about the Prophet Mohammed, Al Arabiya television, Feb. 9, 2006.

  4.Richard Armitage, “America and the World Since 9/11,” luncheon speech at the United States Institute of Peace, Sept. 12, 2002. In reply to a question, Armitage, the Bush Administration’s first deputy secretary of state, said, “Hezbollah may be the A-Team of terrorists, and maybe al Qaeda is actually the B-Team. They’re on the list, and their time will come. There is no question about it. They have a blood debt to us…and we’re not going to forget it, and it’s all in good time. We’re going to go after these problems just like a high-school wrestler goes after a match: We’re going to take them down one at a time.”

  5.Sami Moubayed, “Nasrallah and the Three Lebanons,” Asia Times, Aug. 3, 2006.

  6.Julie Goodman, “Cleric’s Disappearance Sensitive Issue for Shiites,” International Reporting Project, Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, Fall 2004.

  7.Augustus Richard Norton, “Hizballah: From Radicalism to Pragmatism?” Middle East Policy Council Journal, vol. 5, no. 4, Jan. 1998.

  8.The spark for Israel’s invasion, somewhat ironically, was an assassination attempt on its ambassador to Britain by a Palestinian renegade group led by Abu Nidal. His group had split from the Palestine Liberation Organization and later tried to kill Yasser Arafat, too. But the attack on Israel’s ambassador provided the pretext to deal with the long-standing problem of the PLO in neighboring Lebanon.

  9.Al Manar television, Mar. 20, 2002, on www.islamicdigest.net.

  10.Robin Wright, Sacred Rage: The Wrath of Militant Islam (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2001), pp. 69–110.

  11.Robin Wright, Sacred Rage, p. 73.

  12.“An Interview with Yitzhak Rabin: They Want Lebanon, Let Them Enjoy It,” Time, Feb. 11, 1985, p. 44; and Robin Wright, Sacred Rage, p. 233.

  13.Enno Franzius, History of the Order of the Assassins (New York: Funk & Wagnalls, 1969) and Bernard Lewis, The Assassins: A Radical Sect in Islam (New York: Basic Books, 1968, 2002; London: Al Saqi Books, 1985).

  14.Bernard Lewis, The Assassins.

  15.Robert Fisk, “Dialogue Is No Longer Enough; Muslims in the Arab World Are Despairing of the West’s Attitude to Them,” The Independent, Dec. 7, 1993.

  16.The first American taken hostage in Lebanon—and the only one taken to Iran—was David Dodge, the president of American University of Beirut. He was kidnapped when four Iranian diplomats went missing in Lebanon days after Israel’s 1982 invasion. Tehran demanded pressure by the international community to free them; when nothing happened, Dodge went missing. He was held for 366 days. Syria mediated his release. The four Iranians, whose vehicle with diplomatic plates had been stopped at a checkpoint run by a right-wing Christian militia, were never heard from again. In the search for information to win the release of American hostages, U.S. diplomats were told that the four had been murdered.

  17.“An Open Letter: The Hezbollah Program,” As Safir, Feb. 16, 1985; and Augustus Richard Norton, Amal and the Shi’a: Struggle for the Soul of Lebanon (Austin, TX: University of Texas Press, 1987).

  18.“An Open Letter: The Hezbollah Program”; and Augustus Richard Norton, Amal and the Shi’a.

  19.“Return to the Lion’s Den,” CNN On-Air, Dec. 1, 1996.

  20.“Patterns of Global Terrorism 2001,” Background Information on Designated Foreign Terrorist Organizations, Appendix B, U.S. Department of State.

  21.Augustus Richard Norton, “Hizballah: From Radicalism to Pragmatism?” Middle East Policy Council Journal, vol. 5, no. 4, Jan. 1998.

  22.“Hezbollah Leader Addresses Election Rally in Beirut’s Southern Suburb,” excerpt from report by Hezbollah Radio, BBC Summary of World Broadcasts, Aug. 26, 1992.

  23.The quotation is actually by Heraclitus, fragment 41 from On the Universe: “You could not step twice into the same river…”

  24.Gary C. Gambill and Ziad K. Abdelnour, “Hezbollah: Between Tehran and Damascus,” Middle Eas
t Intelligence Bulletin, vol. 4, no. 2, Feb. 2002.

  25.Sami Moubayed, “Who Is Hasan Nasrallah?” World Politics Watch, July 17, 2006.

  26.“Treasury Designation Targets Hizballah’s Bank,” U.S. Treasury Department, Sept. 7, 2006.

  27.Jeffrey Goldberg, “In the Party of God: Hezbollah Sets Up Operations in South America and the United States,” The New Yorker, Oct. 28, 2002; “Hezbollah and the West African Diamond Trade,” Middle East Intelligence Bulletin, vol. 6, no. 6–7, June–July 2004; and Douglas Farah, “Hezbollah’s External Support Network in West Africa and Latin America,” International Assessment and Strategy Center, Aug. 4, 2006.

  28.“Hezbollah Leader Says Lebanon at a ‘Dangerous Stage,’” excerpts from a report in As Safir, BBC Summary of World Broadcasts, Dec. 29, 1997.

  29.“Hezbollah Leader Addresses Beirut Rally, Sees End of Israeli ‘Dream,’” al Manar television Web site in Arabic, May 7, 1998.

  30.Avi Jorisch, “Al-Manar: Hizbullah TV 24/7,” Middle East Quarterly, vol. 11, no. 1, Winter 2004; and Avi Jorisch, “Terrorist Television,” National Review, Dec. 22, 2004.

  31.Robin Wright, “Iran Shipping Arms to Hezbollah,” Los Angeles Times, Apr. 18, 1996; and Robin Wright, “Iran Boosts Arms Supplies to Hezbollah,” Los Angeles Times, Dec. 13, 1996.

  32.In 1993, via Syria, the United States brokered an unwritten deal: Israel ended attacks on Lebanese civilians, while Hezbollah limited operations to Israelis in Lebanon. It broke down in 1996 in a brutal sixteen-day onslaught by both sides. The United States renegotiated the same deal, this time in writing.

  33.Oscar Serrat, “Argentine Prosecutors Seek Arrest of Former Iranian President in Jewish Center Bombing,” Associated Press, Oct. 25, 2006.

  34.Richard Engle, “Hezbollah Guerrillas Taunt Israeli Soldiers, Loot Abandoned Border Posts,” Agence France Presse, May 24, 2000.

  35.Deborah Sontag, “Retreat from Lebanon: The Triumphal Procession, Israel out of Lebanon after 22 Years,” The New York Times, May 24, 2000.

  36.“Hezbollah Leader Calls for Muslim-Christian Coexistence,” Lebanese Broadcasting Corp., broadcast aired May 26, 2000, and published by BBC Summary of World Broadcasts May 27, 2000.

  37.Daniel Sobelman, “Hezbollah Two Years After the Withdrawal—A Compromise Between Ideology, Interests, and Exigencies,” Strategic Assessment, Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, Tel Aviv University, vol. 5, no. 2, Aug. 2002.

  38.Daniel Sobelman, “Four Years After the Withdrawal from Lebanon: Refining the Rules of the Game,” Strategic Assessment, Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, Tel Aviv University, vol. 7, no. 2, Aug. 2004.

  39.Robin Wright, “Most of Iran’s Troops in Lebanon Are Out, Western Officials Say,” The Washington Post. Apr. 13, 2005.

  40.Daniel Sobelman, “Hezbollah After the Syrian Withdrawal,” Strategic Assessment, Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, Tel Aviv University, vol. 8, no. 1, Aug. 2005.

  41.“The Electoral Program of Hezbollah 1996,” Distributed by al Manar television, online at http://almashriq.hiof.no/lebanon/300/320/324/324.2/hizballah/hizballah-platform.html.

  42.Hassan Nasrallah, speech addressing the nation on the publication of cartoons about the Prophet Mohammed, al Arabiya television, Feb. 9, 2006.

  43.Will Rasmussen, “Hezbollah Hasn’t Moderated, but It Has Been Humbled,” The New Republic Online, Jan. 4, 2006.

  44.“Hizbullah Risks Becoming Part of ‘Business as Usual’ in Beirut,” The Daily Star editorial, July 8, 2006.

  45.Interview with Egyptian television, June 2, 2000.

  46.Daniel Sobelman, “Hezbollah Two Years After the Withdrawal”: Daniel Sobelman, “Four Years After the Withdrawal from Lebanon”; and Reuven Pedatzur, “Plays by the Rules,” Haaretz, Aug. 16, 2004.

  47.Daniel Sobelman, “Hezbollah Two Years After the Withdrawal.”

  48.Nightline, ABC News, Oct. 19, 2000.

  49.“Lebanese Hezbollah Leader Views Capability of New Drone to Bomb Israel,” al Manar Television, Nov. 12, 2004, published by BBC Worldwide Monitoring, Nov. 13, 2004.

  50.Daniel Sobelman, “Four Years After the Withdrawal from Lebanon.”

  51.“Factbox: How Hizbollah Captured Israeli Soldiers,” Reuters, July 13, 2006.

  52.“Nasrallah: We Are Working on Making This Year the Year to Free Our Brothers in Israeli Detention,” The Daily Star, Feb. 10, 2006.

  53.Greg Myre and Steven Erlanger, “Israelis Enter Lebanon After Attacks,” The New York Times, July 13, 2006.

  54.Amir Oren, “The Longest Month,” Haaretz, Aug. 18, 2006.

  55.Jon Finer, “Israeli Soldiers Find a Tenacious Foe in Hezbollah,” The Washington Post, Aug. 8, 2006; and Lin Noueihed, “Israel Faces Invisible Enemy in Southern Lebanon,” Reuters, Aug. 2, 2006.

  56.“Nasrallah: No Second Round,” As Safir, Aug. 28, 2006, translation of interview on New TV by Miriam al Bassam.

  57.Adam Entous, “More Than 60 pct of Israelis Want Olmert to Quit—Poll,” Reuters, Aug. 25, 2006.

  58.“Poll Finds Support for Hizbullah’s Retaliation: Opinions Diverge on Sectarian Lines—But Not Completely,” Beirut Center for Research & Information, July 29, 2006.

  59.Edward Cody, “Staying Power Adds to Hezbollah’s Appeal,” The Washington Post, Aug. 2, 2006.

  60.Steven Erlanger, “Israeli Officer Says Army Aims to Kill Nasrallah,” The New York Times, Aug. 20, 2006.

  61.Zeina Karam, “Hezbollah Leader Says He Wouldn’t Have Ordered the Capture of Two Israeli Soldiers Knowing It Would Lead to Such a War,” Associated Press, Aug. 27, 2006; and “Nasrallah Regrets War in Hindsight,” The Daily Star, Aug. 27, 2006.

  62.“Hizbullah Shuts Down Posts Near Shabaa Farms, Moves Out Weapons,” Agence France Presse, quoted by Naharnet, Aug. 28, 2006.

  63.Nadia Abou El-Magd, “For Majority of Arabs, Hezbollah Won, Israel Army No Longer Unbeatable,” Associated Press, Aug. 17, 2006.

  64.Ibid.

  65.David Rising, “Hezbollah’s Fierce Resistance Giving Rise to Increased Arab Support,” Associated Press, July 30, 2006.

  66.Nadia Abou El-Magd, “Nearly a Month Into Lebanon Fighting, Arab Anger at Their Governments Grows,” Associated Press, Aug. 7, 2006.

  67.Mohammed Bazzi, “Some Fear a Thousand New Bin Ladens,” Newsday, Aug. 1, 2006.

  68.Interview with Hassan Nasrallah, al Jazeera, Sept. 12, 2006.

  69.Robin Wright and Peter Baker, “Iraq, Jordan See Threat to Election from Iran: Leaders Warn Against Forming Religious State,” The Washington Post, Dec. 8, 2004.

  70.Hassan Hassan and Abdullah Taa’i, “Hizbullah in the Eyes of Syrians During the War,” written for SyriaComment.com, Sept. 6, 2006.

  CHAPTER SIX: SYRIA: THE OUTLAWS

  1.Patrick Seale, Asad: The Struggle for the Middle East (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1988), p. 153.

  2.Patrick Seale, Asad, pp. 3–8.

  3.Gary C. Gambill, “Riyad al-Turk: Secretary-General of the Syrian Community Party Political Bureau,” Middle East Intelligence Bulletin, vol. 3, no. 9, Sept. 2001; and Ranwa Yehia, “The Shackles of Leadership,” Al-Ahram Weekly, no. 563, Dec. 6–12, 2001.

  4.Patrick Seale, Asad, pp. 441–460.

  5.Michael Jansen, “Spring Time in Syria,” Al-Ahram Weekly, no. 526, March 22–28, 2001.

  6.Inaugural Address, Syrian Arab News Agency, July 17, 2000.

  7.“Statement by 99 Syrian Intellectuals,” Al Hayat, Sept. 27, 2000.

  8.Eli Karmelli, and Yotam Feldner, “The Battle for Reforms and Civil Society in Syria—Part I,” Middle East Media Research Institute, no. 47, Feb. 9, 2001.

  9.Flynt Leverett, Inheriting Syria: Bashar’s Trial by Fire (Washington D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2005).

  10.Deborah Amos, “Syria’s Efforts to Reform Its Economy,” All Things Considered, National Public Radio, Aug. 2, 2005.

  11.Sami Moubayed, “Dateline Damascus: Threatened by Its Neighbors, Damascus Clamps Down on ‘Opinion of the Other,’” Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, Dec. 2001.<
br />
  12.Rhonda Roumani, “Syria Frees Five Political Activists,” The Washington Post, Jan. 19, 2006.

  13.Patrick Seale, Asad, pp. 3–8.

  14.Yassin Haj Saleh, “Don’t Rush the Revolution,” The New York Times, June 4, 2005.

  15.Howard Schneider, “For First Time, a Pope Sets Foot in a Mosque,” The Washington Post, May 7, 2001.

  16.Zeina Karam, “Planner of Assault on Munich Olympics Has No Regrets,” Associated Press. Feb. 23, 2006.

  17.Gary C. Gambill, “The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, Mideast Mirror, vol. 1, no. 2, Apr.–May 2006.

  18.The Muslim Brotherhood was also banned during Syria’s union with Egypt between 1958 and 1961, but allowed to run after the United Arab Republic crumbled.

  19.Patrick Seale, Asad, pp. 316–338.

  20.Ibid.

  21.The Massacres of Hama: Law Enforcement Requires Accountability, Syrian Human Rights Committee, Feb. 1, 2005.

  22.Thomas L. Friedman, From Beirut to Jerusalem (New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux, 1989), p. 80.

  23.The Massacres of Hama; and interviews with human rights groups in Damascus, Apr. 2006.

  24.“Mid-Range Wars and Atrocities of the Twentieth Century,” http://users.erols.com/mwhite28/warstat4.htm.

  25.Ibrahim Hamidi, “Islamist Streams on the March in Syria,” Al Hayat, Jan. 4, 2006.

  26.Anthony Shadid, “Inside and Outside Syria, a Debate to Decide the Future,” The Washington Post, Nov. 9, 2005.

  27.Deborah Amos, “Exiled Opposition Leader for Democracy in Syria,” National Public Radio, Dec. 1, 2005.

  28.Ibrahim Hamidi, “Islamist Streams on the March in Syria.”

  29.Charles Glass, “Is Syria Next?” London Review of Books, vol. 25, no. 14, July 24, 2003.

  30.Flynt Leverett, “Syria’s Wobbly Godfather Jr.: Will the Hariri Affair Be a Turning Point in the Assad Family Saga? The Washington Post, Oct. 30, 2005.

  31.Bouthaina Shaaban, “Outside View: Who Killed Hariri?” United Press International, Feb. 19, 2005, and www.bouthainashaaban.com, Feb. 22, 2005.

  32.Gary C. Gambill, “The Kurdish Reawakening in Syria,” Middle East Intelligence Bulletin, vol. 6, no. 4, April 2004.

  33.Christine Spolar, “Fearful Iraqis Seek Haven in Syria,” The Chicago Tribune, May 22, 2006.