Nuclear Winter

by Td Barnes

  The drama and suspense ended with the tanker hooking up to take on a load of oil, the flotilla returning to their base port, and the submarines going passive into position.

  He stopped watching the monitor and returned to reading a printout of the written synopsis of the event. The Intel analyst shared the opinion that the Iranians saw no reason to suspect an Israeli submarine presence in the Persian Gulf amidst the large number of Arab enemies that included Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE bordering the Strait of Hormuz.

  Per its intelligence sources, Iran knew about the Rabin and the Ben-Gurion submarines and believed Israel would take possession of them in two months at the Kiel shipyard. Iranian Intel also identified the presence of all three of Israel’s currently owned submarines, the Dolphin, Tekuma, and Leviathan.

  The combination of this Intel and the United States not allowing Israel to go it alone on a preemptive strike assured Iran that nothing could impede their nation’s accelerated course to become a nuclear power.

  Bradley chuckled to himself in thought while wondering if any other agency or nation knew of Israel’s taking delivery of the two submarines two months earlier than expected. He continued reading.

  “Iran perceives itself to be politically stronger now than ever before with both China and Russia dependent upon the stable source of oil that Iran provides. This assures Iran of a dual superpower alliance at the same time the United States is experiencing its weakest position ever. The US indebtedness to China makes it a puppet to the Communists concerning enforcing sanctions against Iran. A case in point, the US demonstrated a show of neutrality by removing their carriers from the mouth of the Persian Gulf when Israel publicly pushed the United States for military action. The Iranians believe that this lack of American or Israeli military presence gives Iran two months to establish a deterring presence in the Persian Gulf before Israeli can outfit their new submarines with nuclear cruise missiles. Keeping the three submarines visible off the coast of Israel in a decoy tactic appears to be working for Israel while it secretly takes possession of the two new subs earlier than the leaked date. The continued existence of Israel might well hinge on the secret deployment of these two new submarines. While the Rabin and the Ben-Gurion secretly assume positions on the doorstep of the Iranian enemy, the three known submarines in the Haifa-based Israeli Navy fleet, the Dolphin, and the Tekuma are visually patrolling the Israeli coastline. Strategically leaked intelligence is assuring Iran of the Leviathan sitting in a submerged position off the coast of Israel to defend the home country. Each vessel can remain submerged for up to a week and stay at sea for some 50 days. No one expects either of these limitations to be a factor. Iran will have both the bomb and the delivery vehicle and plan to mate the two for an attack on Israel within the month.”

  Arming himself with this Intel made Bradley’s mission much more critical. Israel needed to remove those two Israeli submarines immediately.

  SFC Janet Harrison interrupted his preparations for landing. “Sir, we have a priority message from the boss.” She handed him the message and remained standing beside his seat in case he wanted her to transmit a reply.

  “Son-of-a-bitch,” he muttered to himself while he scanned the dispatch. He expected what the decrypted message contained, but still confirming it pissed him to no end to see his commander in chief appearing on a TV talk show to be gloated over by a female panel of liberal-leaning Bubbleheads.

  Instead of his meeting with world leaders attending the United Nations conference in New York, he chooses to snub world leaders for a photo and campaign op while the entire world teetered on the brink of war.

  Worse yet, while he acted the fool for the cameras, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad disregarded a UN warning to avoid incendiary rhetoric and declared ahead of the annual General Assembly session that Israel possessed no roots in the Middle East and needed elimination.

  The more Bradley thought about the irresponsible actions of his commander-in-chief, the more it infuriated him.

  Sergeant First Class Harrison waited to see if the colonel wanted her services for something else. She turned to return to her seat in the communications cubical when she saw his not intending to respond.

  “Sit down, Janet,” Bradley murmured, staring in thought at the simple message.

  She buckled in, and when he did not say anything further, she glanced past him outside the window in time to see the plane descend beneath the clouds to reveal the approaching lights of the Tel Aviv International Airport in the distance. That is when she noticed the star insignia on the Israeli fighter jet flying formation with them. Glancing across the aisle, she saw another escort off the port side of the plane. She realized now that her boss only wanted her presence.

  “Looks like we have an escort, sir. I can see the airport. I’d better secure my equipment for landing.”

  The colonel continued staring out the window in silent thought while she left to return to her section.

  Bradley, like so many others in the DOD and Intel business, felt incredibly cynical about the heading of their nation and society in general. He strongly felt that only a US-backed preemptive strike by Israel would prevent the rogue country of Iran from developing a nuclear weapons capability. Yet, even with Iran soon advancing beyond the stage where such an attack would be useful, the United States president and his administration continued drawing out the promised support for such a strike.

  This and both Russia and China continuous vetos of UN resolutions for sanctions against Iran caused countries secretly supporting Israel taking out the nuclear facilities to now suck up to Iran out of fear of Israel going it alone and failing.

  This latest message confirmed Israel’s loss of the opportunity for a preemptive strike. This merely added to the bad news he carried for his Israeli counterparts meeting him in Tel Aviv. He also brought good news. He secured his carry-on items and prepared for the landing.

  ****

  Bradley came from the old military school where the commander led by being first to step into battle and the last one out — from a time when he and his officers saw that the welfare of those under their command came first. In keeping with this belief, he dropped by his crew’s quarters the next morning to check on his people before joining Israeli Colonel Rafi at the appointed time for breakfast.

  Being DIA, Bradley, and his people could have appeared dressed in civilian clothes, especially since federal civilian employees made up over half of his command. Though assigned to DIA, he still considered him to be military, so today he chose to wear the army combat uniform rather than appearing in civilian clothes or in his Army service uniform with his decorations. He felt happy with his choice when he saw the Israeli officers similarly attired in Israeli combat uniforms.

  He sensed Colonel Rafi’s anxious to learn what message he brought with him. Rafi did not stand-alone in this regard. They had no more than sat their breakfast trays down when an Israeli Air Force brigadier general and a member of the Mossad unexpectedly showed up. Bradley noticed out of the corner of his eye the Mossad representative taking note of his facial scars. Few ever questioned Bradley about his strong, but raspy voice because the scar on his throat indicated the damage to his larynx and vocal cords that made his voice sound laryngitic.

  The Israelis served a delightful breakfast of cheese blintzes topped with strawberry sauce and fruit preserves. Being a habitual coffee sot, the quality of the coffee served pleased Bradley enough that he commented on it and insisted everyone receive refills before his breaking the news to them.

  “Gentlemen,” he said. Bradley paused for a moment to figure out what he wanted to say. His hesitancy came from a belief that one should not criticize their own national leaders while in another country. “To hell with political correctness — I have worked with these Intel colleagues before.” He continued with his real feelings.

  “Time is not in our favor, so I’ll get to the point. The United States regards Israel a primary ally in t
he Middle East based on respective democratic values, religious affinities, and security interests. However, the United States has a legacy of speaking out of both sides of its mouth when it comes to dealing with Iran and the Islamic issues like the brouhaha that occurred over the Benghazi affair. Wild Bill Donovan and Vinegar Joe Stillwell must be spinning in their graves. I received word from my boss while landing last evening that the President will not announce the promised United States B-2 bomber support. The United States military is not abandoning you. You will have the GBU-57A/B bunker buster and fighter support. It is only that the President will not engage in posturing, or what he calls ‘bluffing.' Frankly, he lacks experience in dealing with something like this and is confusing arrogance with toughness. You have seen how he loves to create budgetary brinkmanship at home and believes he can do the same anywhere in the world. He thinks his previously telling Iran to knock it off will work, but as you well know that he is perceived all bark and no bite.”

  No one spoke for quite some time while each digested this confirmation already suspected.

  “Thank you, Colonel, for your honesty,” Colonel Rafi said. “We are obviously disappointed, but not surprised. The United States does not appear to take Iran serious when it threatens to close the Persian flow of oil. They don’t think Iran will block the Strait of Hormuz. The USS John C. Stennis seems to be leaving the area for the Indian Ocean. Many of us fear the administration might quietly accept Iran as a nuclear power. They do not realize that the leaders of Iran are putting their zealotry above their survival and are leading the country with an unbelievable fanaticism. We cannot allow these fanatics to have nuclear weapons. Your secretary of defense has loudly adopted the stance of the United States supporting Israel if Iran exercised its long-standing threat to attack, but we believe that merely being another political ploy and empty promise. Your secretary of defense is just stating your president’s political talking points.”

  The Mossad representative leaned forward with his elbow on the table and chin cupped in his hand. “The American leadership doesn’t seem to realize that it encourages war. Take the Korean War, for example. The North’s 1950 invasion of the South came after the US secretary of state delineated the American defensive perimeter in such a way as to exclude South Korea. We could have avoided the Vietnam War had the United States recognized Vietnam’s cry for assistance in keeping the Colonist French from returning to take over their country after World War II. I won’t even get into the Iraqi wars that we could have prevented by just hiring a couple thugs from Chicago to take out Saddam. All your president does is campaign and bark like that nitwit running North Korea. It is as if someone neutered the American military at the end of World War II. All we’ve seen is bark and no balls.”

  “Neither our President nor our Secretary of State wants to believe Iran is committed to building a nuclear weapon,” Bradley replied. "They refuse to acknowledge what our Intel is telling them. I can inform you that we have someone on the inside providing US intelligence with the most complete and updated footage ever obtained of the interiors of Iran’s secret military facilities and various nuclear installations. We are talking things withheld from our nuclear watchdog inspectors — exclusive interior shots of the Natanz nuclear complex, the Fordo underground enrichment plant, the Parchin military complex, and the small Amir-Abad research reactor in Tehran. We have film of Revolutionary Guards and military industry chiefs explaining in detail to the president or supreme leader the working of secret equipment on view. Our source recorded their voices.”

  The Mossad operative lit a cigarette and leaned back in his chair. “We’ve received a report that the Revolutionary Guards patrolling the Islamic Republic’s northwestern border are claiming to have seen American forces and Israeli troops massing there. Iranian media are also reporting American troops engaging in the country in an armed conflict with rebels.”

  “That’s bullshit,” Bradley exploded. “There is not a shred of truth to any of that. The media, and I mean the media worldwide, is trying to incite war. How many rockets and missiles do you have fired into Israel on any one day? One hundred? — 500? You have hundreds of missiles fired at you daily, yet the media will not say a fucking word about it. However, let Israel fire one goddamn weapon in return, and you will have screaming headlines around the world.”

  “While what you say is true, the media are quoting Revolutionary Guards Brigadier General Mehdi Amini in reporting that his forces have mobilized due to the presence of American and Israeli forces on the western border. The Guards have called tanks and anti-aircraft units to the area in what amounts to a war alert,” he continued. “Let’s forget this media and political hype. We will do what we must do — we are not lambs hunkering down for slaughter.”

  Bradley managed to temper his anger but grimaced at the suggestion of his ever equating the Israeli military to being lambs. This small nation always managed to overcome attacks from its Arab neighbors, and always exacted a price for any casus belli, the justification for war. Israel fought them all, Egypt, Jordan, Syria, and Iraq, yet thousands of rockets continued to bombard Israel each year despite decisive military wins. “There are no lambs in this room.”

  Apparently, none of the Israelis at the meeting knew about the nuke bombs that Iran intended to place in inventory, inventory being the tip of its missiles aimed at Israel and wherever the US deployed troops to the region.

  “I have given you my personal assessment and feelings.” He continued in an announcement tone of voice. “However, I did not come with only bad news. I suggest we assemble my intelligence staff and reconvene in a more secure venue. I did not make this trip to deliver gloom and doom. You do still have the support of the American people. I also have a personal statement to offer. It’s unofficial. Let’s talk.”

  Bradley’s Israeli Mossad counterpart heard his words “Let’s talk" loud and clear. Any question of rank, branch of service, or chain of command vanished immediately with his response. “Completely understood, Colonel Bradley. To give you time to assemble your technical staff to tell us your real reason for being here, I suggest we adjourn and likewise assemble those in our technical departments who speak the same language of your staff. Do you concur and if so, what field of expertise would you recommend for those attending when we reconvene?"

  Bradley stood up to indicate the conclusion of their talks for the moment. “I suggest you include technical personnel specializing in encryption of missile guidance command codes and the means of applying them to missiles or rockets launched or preparing to launch in multiple denied territories, namely Iran, Syria, and Lebanon. We will also want to compare Intel with you, so I suggest you include your best Intel personnel. Let’s not bullshit one another with desk people — bring me the people from the trenches still smelling of cordite. We came here to work, so I suggest the word “sir” be stricken from their vocabulary. Gentlemen, please limit attendance to need-to-know. There must not be any leaks on what we discuss.”

  Some of the Israelis grinned among themselves while rising from their chairs to leave the room. Some of them having worked with Bradley’s people in the past knew his legacy of discarding rank and protocol when his staff of Mavericks and he rolled up their sleeves to work on a problem. They gave credence to the saying, “Lead, follow, or get the hell out of the way.”

  ****

  Bradley returned to his room where he set up his encryption unit and contacted his office to obtain an update before resuming their meeting. His update mostly concentrated on the fourth day of the tracking of a Chinese freighter Wing Fung-Lung loaded with nuclear-tipped missiles sixty miles off the coast of North Korea.

  AB ZWJUY

  TS RDCIC 184 05/2015Z

  R 062395Z MAY 14

  FM Defense Intelligence Agency’s Missile and Space Intelligence Center - Redstone Arsenal, Huntsville, Alabama.

  EYES ONLY COLONEL THOMAS J. BRADLEY

  BT

  TS NAVY CAPT. WILLIAM H. HASTINGS, CO USS VIRGINIA-CLAS
S NUCLEAR SUBMARINE NEW HAMPSHIRE REPORTS TARGET FREIGHTER WING FUNG LUNG JOINING WITH A LARGE FLOTILLA OF CHINESE WARSHIPS MAINTAINING BEARING THROUGH THE YELLOW SEA TOWARDS THE NORTH KOREAN PORT OF HAEJO.

  USS HAWAII AND 134 CREW TRACKING CHINESE WARSHIP HANGZHOU, WITH PHALANX OF ESCORTS, SOVIET SOVREMENNY-CLASS DESTROYER OBSERVED TRAILING FLOTILLA OF NORTH KOREAN HIGH-SPEED GUIDED-MISSILE PATROL BOATS EQUIPPED WITH RADAR AND INFRARED SEEKING ANTI-SHIP MISSILES. CAPTAIN HASTINGS FURTHER REPORTS SONAR CONTACT WITH A SOVIET BOREY CLASS STRATEGIC NUCLEAR-POWERED SUBMARINE. APPEARS TO BE FOLLOWING THE FLOTILLA.

  RH

  “What the Hell?” The presence of this conglomeration of naval power alarmed Bradley. The US Navy started out quietly trailing a Chinese freighter loaded with Chinese missiles only to find its submarines amidst a major naval buildup. This message alerted him to the identity of the Hangzhou, the largest ship in the Chinese navy suddenly churning the water above and around the USS New Hampshire.

  “What a clusterfuck,” he thought, visualizing the crew of the New Hampshire having to sweat it out while stealthily cruising beneath the North Korean flotilla protecting the Chinese freighter. Did the Hangzhou appear because of the Soviet destroyer and the new Soviet submarine, the Borey-class Alexander Nevsky previously believed to be in the Northern Sea Route?

  Bradley thought, “What is it about all this Chinese firepower to warrant this Soviet attention? I smell a war brewing, but where and who? Are the Soviets involved in this missile shipment?”

  The parties arrived simultaneously two hours later and per Bradley’s suggestion, brought their worker bees of mostly NCOs and junior officers. Much like his entourage, several looked young enough to be high school or college coeds.