How Democracies Die
Page 28
All reputable studies: See, for example, Levitt, “The Truth About Voter Fraud”; Minnite, The Myth of Voter Fraud.
“modern day poll tax”: Quoted in Berman, Give Us the Ballot, p. 223.
An estimated 300,000 Georgia voters: Ibid., p. 223.
“a not-too-thinly veiled attempt”: Quoted in ibid., p. 254.
Bills were introduced: Ibid., pp. 260–61.
fifteen states had adopted such laws: Highton, “Voter Identification Laws and Turnout in the United States,” pp. 152–53.
a disproportionate impact: Charles Stewart III, “Voter ID: Who Has Them? Who Shows Them?” Oklahoma Law Review 66 (2013).
reported not possessing a valid driver’s license: Ibid., pp. 41–42.
A study by the Brennan Center for Justice: Berman, Give Us the Ballot, p. 254.
seven adopted stricter voter ID laws: Ibid., p. 264.
Scholars have just begun: Highton, “Voter Identification Laws and Turnout in the United States,” p. 153.
“premier advocate of vote suppression”: Peter Waldman, “Why We Should Be Very Afraid of Trump’s Vote Suppression Commission,” Washington Post, June 30, 2017.
Kobach helped push through: See Ari Berman, “The Man Behind Trump’s Voter-Fraud Obsession,” New York Times Magazine, June 13, 2017.
“won the popular vote”: See https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/802972944532209664?lang=en.
He repeated this point: “Without Evidence, Trump Tells Lawmakers 3 Million to 5 Million Illegal Ballots Cost Him the Popular Vote,” Washington Post, January 23, 2017. Trump’s statement appears to have been based on claims made by noted conspiracy theorist Alex Jones on his website Infowars. See Jessica Huseman and Scott Klein, “There’s No Evidence Our Election Was Rigged,” ProPublica, November 28, 2016.
national vote-monitoring project: Huseman and Klein, “There’s No Evidence Our Election Was Rigged.”
Washington Post reporter Philip Bump: “There Have Been Just Four Documented Cases of Voter Fraud in the 2016 Election,” Washington Post, December 1, 2016.
“absolutely correct”: Berman, “The Man Behind Trump’s Voter-Fraud Obsession.”
“we will probably never know”: Max Greenwood and Ben Kamisar, “Kobach: ‘We May Never Know’ If Clinton Won Popular Vote,” The Hill, July 17, 2019.
The Commission has already sought: Waldman, “Why We Should Be Very Afraid of Trump’s Vote Suppression Commission.”
the number of mistakes: Goel, Meredith, Morse, Rothschild, and Houshmand, “One Person, One Vote.”
Trump’s Commission on Election Integrity: In July 2017, it was reported that forty-four states had refused to share voter information with the Commission. See “Forty-Four States and DC Have Refused to Give Certain Voter Information to Trump Commission,” CNN.com, July 5, 2017.
the Law and Justice Party: “Poland’s President Vetoes 2 Laws That Limited Courts’ Independence,” New York Times, July 24, 2017.
Active loyalists: Representative Duncan Hunter of California, for example, publicly defended Trump even after the release of the Access Hollywood tape during the 2016 campaign. See “Trump’s 10 Biggest Allies in Congress,” The Hill, December 25, 2016.
A few of them pushed quietly: “Special Counsel Appointment Gets Bipartisan Praise,” The Hill, May 17, 2017.
important Republican senators: “Republicans to Trump: Hands off Mueller,” Politico, June 12, 2017.
Senate Judiciary Committee Chair Chuck Grassley: Ibid.
Graham, McCain, and Corker: See https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/?ex_cid=rrpromo.
“found their own red line”: “Senators Unveil Two Proposals to Protect Mueller’s Russia Probe,” Washington Post, August 3, 2017; Tracy, “As Mueller Closes In, Republicans Turn away from Trump.”
President Trump’s approval rating: Jeffrey M. Jones, “Trump Has Averaged 50% or Higher Job Approval in 17 States,” Gallup News Service, July 24, 2017. See http://www.gallup.com/poll/214349/trump-averaged-higher-job-approval-states.aspx.
Democratic senator Joe Manchin: See https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/?ex_cid=rrpromo.
The Hill listed Manchin: “Trump’s 10 Biggest Allies in Congress.”
“Have we not heard enough”: “In West Virginia, Trump Hails Conservatism and a New GOP Governor,” New York Times, August 3, 2017.
they increase support for the government: See again Mueller, War, Presidents, and Public Opinion and more recent empirical studies of the rally-’round-the-flag effect in the United States, including Oneal and Bryan, “The Rally ’Round the Flag Effect in U.S. Foreign Policy Crises, 1950–1985,” Baum, “The Constituent Foundations of the Rally-Round-the-Flag Phenomenon,” and Chatagnier, “The Effect of Trust in Government on Rallies ’Round the Flag.”
Citizens become more likely to tolerate: Huddy, Khatib, and Capelos, “The Polls—Trends,” pp. 418–50; Darren W. Davis and Brian D. Silver, “Civil Liberties vs. Security: Public Opinion in the Context of the Terrorist Attacks on America,” American Journal of Political Science 48, no. 1 (2004), pp. 28–46; Huddy, Feldman, and Weber, “The Political Consequences of Perceived Threat and Felt Insecurity,” pp. 131–53; and Adam J. Berinsky, In Time of War: Understanding American Public Opinion from World War II to Iraq (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2009), Chapter 7.
Judges are notoriously reluctant: Howell, Power Without Persuasion; Ackerman, The Decline and Fall of the American Republic, pp. 67–85.
institutional constraints: Howell, Power Without Persuasion, p. 184.
President Trump’s foreign policy ineptitude: During the 2016 campaign, fifty Republican foreign policy experts, many of them former Bush administration officials, wrote a letter warning that Trump’s ignorance and recklessness would “put at risk our nation’s national security.” See “50 G.O.P. Officials Warn Donald Trump Would Put Nation’s Security ‘At Risk,’ ” New York Times, August 8, 2016.
“smashed through the behavior standards”: David Brooks, “Getting Trump out of My Brain,” New York Times, August 8, 2017.
“closed and armored limousine”: James Wieghart and Paul Healy, “Jimmy Carter Breaks Protocol at Inauguration,” New York Daily News, January 21, 1977.
“an informal custom”: Christine Hauser, “The Inaugural Parade, and the Presidents Who Walked It,” New York Times, January 19, 2017.
William Henry Harrison broke tradition: Paul F. Boller, Presidential Campaigns: From George Washington to George W. Bush (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2004), p. 70
“Booker T. Washington of Tuskegee, Alabama”: The following account draws on Clarence Lusane, The Black History of the White House (San Francisco: City Lights Books, 2011), pp. 219–78.
“the prevailing social etiquette”: Ibid.
President Trump broke: “President Trump Breaks a 150-Year Tradition of Pets in the White House,” AOL.com, July 28, 2017.
“American carnage”: Yashar Ali, “What George W. Bush Really Thought of Donald Trump’s Inauguration,” New York Magazine, March 29, 2017.
not technically required: As Walter Shaub, the former head of the Office of Government Ethics, put it, “You could seriously be the Secretary of the Department of Energy and hold Chevron, Exxon, and B.P. [shares] and not be violating the law, as long as you were willing to go to work every day, put your feet up on your desk, and read the newspaper and do nothing else.” See Lizza, “How Trump Broke the Office of Government Ethics.”
President Trump exercised no such forbearance: Trump maintained a number of potential conflicts of interest stemming from his international business dealings and his extensive links to the Trump Organization. Within weeks of the election, the Sunlight Foundation had created a list of “red flag” conflicts, posting thirty-two of them in November 2016. By July 2017, the list had grown to more than six hundred potential conflicts of interest. Many of Trump’s cabinet and advisory appointees—drawn from the worlds of energy
, finance, and lobbying—also faced potential conflicts of interest. See data: http://www.sunlightfoundation.com.
The Office of Government Ethics: “As Trump Inquiries Flood Ethics Office, Director Looks to House for Action,” NPR.com, April 17, 2017. Trump’s legal team pointed to former Vice President Nelson Rockefeller as an example of an executive official who didn’t fully divest from his family fortune. However, Vice President Rockefeller was subjected to four months of hearings over potential conflicts. See “ Conflicts of Interest: Donald Trump 2017 vs. Nelson Rockefeller 1974,” CBSNews.com, January 13, 2017.
President Trump also violated: See https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/802972944532209664?lang=en.
“millions” of illegal voters: “California Official Says Trump’s Claim of Voter Fraud Is ‘Absurd,’ ” New York Times, November 28, 2016; “Voter Fraud in New Hampshire? Trump Has No Proof and Many Skeptics,” New York Times, February 13, 2017; “Trump’s Baseless Assertions of Voter Fraud Called ‘Stunning,’ ” Politico, November 27, 2016.
A poll taken prior: “Un Tercio de los Mexicans Cree Que Hubo Fraude en las Elecciones de 2006,” El Pais, July 3, 2008. See https://elpais.com/internacional/2008/07/03/actualidad/1215036002_850215.html; Emir Olivares Alonso, “Considera 71% de los Mexicanos que Puede Haber Fraude Electoral,” La Jornada, June 29, 2012. See http://www.jornada.unam.mx/2012/06/29/politica/003n1pol.
“meaningful amount” of fraud: Sam Corbett-Davies, Tobias Konitzer, and David Rothschild, “Poll: 60% of Republicans Believe Illegal Immigrants Vote; 43% Believe People Vote Using Dead People’s Names,” Washington Post, October 24, 2016.
47 percent of Republicans: “Many Republicans Doubt Clinton Won Popular Vote,” Morning Consult, July 27, 2017.
Fifty-two percent of Republicans: Ariel Malka and Yphtach Lelkes, “In a New Poll, Half of Republicans Say They Would Support Postponing the 2020 Election If Trump Proposed It,” Washington Post, August 10, 2017.
“Terrible! Just found out”: https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/837996746236182529; also see www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2017/mar/21/timeline-donald-trumps-false-wiretapping-charge%2F.
“never deny the undeniable”: “Many Politicians Lie, but Trump Has Elevated the Art of Fabrication,” New York Times, August 8, 2017.
PolitiFact classified: PolitiFact. See http://www.politifact.com/personalities/donald-trump/.
“achieved something remarkable”: David Leonhardt and Stuart Thompson, “Trump’s Lies,” New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/06/23/opinion/trumps-lies.html?mcubz=1.
President Trump claimed: Rebecca Savransky, “Trump Falsely Claims He Got Biggest Electoral College Win Since Reagan,” The Hill, February 16, 2017; Tom Kertscher, “Donald Trump Not Close in Claiming He Has Signed More Bills in First Six Months Than Any President,” PolitiFact Wisconsin, July 20, 2017, http://www.politifact.com/wisconsin/statements/2017/jul/20/donald-trump/donald-trump-not-close-claiming-he-has-signed-more/.
“the greatest speech ever”: Ella Nilsen, “Trump: Boy Scouts Thought My Speech Was ‘Greatest Ever Made to Them.’ Boy Scouts: No,” Vox, August 2, 2017.
view him as dishonest: Surveys from mid-2017 showed that 57 percent of Americans believed the president was not honest. See Quinnipiac University Poll, “Trump Gets Small Bump from American Voters,” January 10, 2017 (https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2415); “U.S. Voters Send Trump Approval to Near Record Low,” May 10, 2017 (https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2456); “Trump Gets Small Bump from American Voters,” June 29, 2017 (https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2471).
Citizens have a basic right: See Robert Dahl, Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1971).
“among the most dishonest human beings”: “With False Claims, Trump Attacks Media on Turnout and Intelligence Rift,” New York Times, January 21, 2017. See also http://video.foxnews.com/v/5335781902001/?#sp=show-clips.
“I heard poorly rated @Morning_Joe”: https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/880408582310776832, https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/880410114456465411.
Press Secretary Sean Spicer: “CNN, New York Times, Other Media Barred from White House Briefing,” Washington Post, February 24, 2017.
The only modern precedent: “Trump Not the Only President to Ban Media Outlets from the White House,” ABC10.com, February 24, 2017.
Humans have a limited ability to cope: Daniel Patrick Moynihan, “Defining Deviancy Down: How We’ve Become Accustomed to Alarming Levels of Crime and Destructive Behavior,” The American Scholar 62, no. 1 (Winter 1993), pp. 17–30.
All but one Republican senator: Susan Collins of Maine voted with Trump 79 percent of the time. See https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/?ex_cid=rrpromo.
Even Senators Ben Sasse: See https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/?ex_cid=rrpromo.
Greg Gianforte, the Republican candidate: “GOP Candidate in Montana Race Charged with Misdemeanor Assault After Allegedly Body-Slamming Reporter,” Washington Post, May 24, 2017.
“biased or inaccurate”: “Attitudes Toward the Mainstream Media Take an Unconstitutional Turn,” The Economist, August 2, 2017; https://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2017/08/daily-chart-0.
“They use their schools”: “Why Join the National Rifle Association? To Defeat Liberal Enemies, Apparently,” The Guardian, July 1, 2017.
“We’ve had it”: “ ‘We’re Coming for You’: NRA Attacks New York Times in Provocative Video,” The Guardian, August 5, 2017.
CHAPTER 9: SAVING DEMOCRACY
It was only after 1965: Mickey, Paths out of Dixie.
fundamental realignment: Mickey, Levitsky, and Way, “Is America Still Safe for Democracy?,” pp. 20–29.
There is a mounting perception: See Larry Diamond, “Facing Up to the Democratic Recession,” Journal of Democracy 26, no. 1 (January 2015), pp. 141–55; and Roberto Stefan Foa and Yascha Mounk, “The Democratic Disconnect,” Journal of Democracy 27, no. 3 (July 2016), pp. 5–17.
Larry Diamond: Diamond, “Facing Up to the Democratic Recession.”
claims about a global democratic recession: Steven Levitsky and Lucan A. Way, “The Myth of Democratic Recession,” Journal of Democracy 26, no. 1 (January 2015), pp. 45–58.
U.S. governments used diplomatic pressure: Levitsky and Way, Competitive Authoritarianism; Mainwaring and Pérez-Liñan, Democracies and Dictatorships in Latin America.
a pro-Trump GOP: Republican control over the various branches of government would be made possible by the concentration of the Democratic vote in urban centers. This has allowed the Republicans—who dominate the small-town and rural vote—to become nearly unbeatable in much of the national territory, giving them an edge in the Electoral College and particularly in the Senate.
It is also demographically diverse: See https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/NC.
“microcosm of the country’s hyper-partisan politics”: Jedediah Purdy, “North Carolina’s Partisan Crisis,” The New Yorker, December 20, 2016.
partisans have battled: “North Carolina Governor Signs Controversial Transgender Bill,” CNN.com, March 24, 2016.
“more polarized and more acrimonious”: Quoted in Mark Joseph Stern, “North Carolina Republicans’ Legislative Coup Is an Attack on Democracy,” Slate, December 15, 2016.
The changes enabled Republicans: Max Blau, “Drawing the Line on the Most Gerrymandered District in America,” The Guardian, October 19, 2016.
They began by demanding access: See: http://pdfserver.amlaw.com/nlj/7-29-16%204th%20Circuit%20NAACP%20v%20NC.pdf, pp. 10, 13.
They passed a strict voter ID law: “North Carolina Governor Signs Extensive Voter ID Law,” Washington Post, August 12, 2013; and “
Critics Say North Carolina Is Curbing the Black Vote. Again,” New York Times, August 30, 2016.
“almost surgical precision”: “Justices Reject Two Gerrymandered North Carolina Districts, Citing Racial Bias,” New York Times, May 27, 2017.
Republicans used their control: “Critics Say North Carolina Is Curbing the Black Vote. Again.”
McCrory refused to concede: “North Carolina Governor Alleges Voter Fraud in Bid to Hang On,” Politico, November 21, 2016; and “North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory Files for Recount as Challenger’s Lead Grows,” NBCNews.com, November 22, 2016.
“surprise special session”: “Democrats Protest as GOP Calls Surprise Special Session,” WRAL.com, December 14, 1016.
“legislative coup”: “NC Is in the Hot National Spotlight Yet Again as Media Focus on General Assembly, Cooper,” Charlotte Observer, December 16, 2016; Stern, “North Carolina Republicans’ Legislative Coup Is an Attack on Democracy.”
“brazen power grab”: “A Brazen Power Grab in North Carolina,” New York Times, December 15, 2016.
The Senate granted itself the authority: “Proposed Cuts to Gov.-Elect Roy Cooper’s Appointment Powers Passes NC House in 70–36 Vote,” News & Observer, December 15, 2016; and see “Bill Would Curb Cooper’s Appointment Powers,” WRAL.com, December 14, 2016.
Outgoing governor McCrory: “Before Leaving Office, McCrory Protected 908 State Jobs from Political Firings,” News & Observer, February 23, 2017.
Republicans then changed the composition: “Senate Passes Controversial Merger of Ethics, Elections Boards,” WRAL.com, December 15, 2016.
responsible for local rules: See https://www.ncsbe.gov/about-us.