Pinatubo II

by Les W Kuzyk

  Chapter 30

  Tamanna sat before her visiscreen in her London office, door closed. Nishat had caught her off guard making contact so soon. Not only the call, but her appearance surprised Tamanna. The Minister of HICCC Negotiations looked horrid with her wire frame glasses tumbled to one side, as if she’d been dabbing at her eyes. Tamanna knew she needed check in before the third Sahel circuit tour, but she wasn’t leaving for three days. Tami sensed a new tone behind Minister Jabbar’s weary voice, a new urgency.

  Nishat began on a notation of lament, so unusual. The confidence she exuded any other day seemed shaken. She waved a cherished World Bank report she’d kept over the years she’d been leafing though. A special graph she originally noticed in Turn the Heat Down, had an explicit subtitle warning Why Avoid 4 Degrees, one that had held hope for her. More hope than others, much more, when the report first came out; a withering wish as the years had passed. The intrigue of a vision wrapped around easy-to-understand numbers. If the people of the globe had abruptly ceased all emissions as of 2016, that would have marked the historical point when they may well have contained the temperature rise below one point five degrees. But that year, along with that warming and that wish, were well past. Now, looking back, and as predicted by the pragmatists of the time, that very symbolic turn of events had not come anywhere close to fruition.

  Tami looked wistfully into her elder’s eyes, no she knew, that wish had no real chance of fulfillment. Carbon gas could be sequestered directly from atmosphere, but cost and will of the people had disallowed all. Nishat straightened her hair, adjusting her spectacles. Heart more at peace, she regained her disciplined composure and got back to politics.

  The High Impact meeting with Economically Cooperating nations, in their HI/EC negotiations, had finished their fourth day, and with but one day to go, agreements came nowhere close to High Impact Countries’ minimums. A dreamed of sign off, even an eleventh hour grand finale, could not realistically be expected her advisors agreed. They needed a new tactic—a consequential bargaining chip.

  “We must initiate another option,” Nishat stated. “But first, I wish to speak with you on some background my child.”

  So first, acceptance. That the global North would share with the global South out of higher human goodness, well, as nice as that might sound, they needed pragmatically forget that possibility. In this era of humanity, you still needed patriarchal power to hold up as a threat, a warning to bring about a certain nervousness in others around the table.

  Take China. With so much coal, and so many coal burning power plants, they had a global voice. They were also fully aware of their serious climate change situation; that truth came out repeatedly in national agricultural reports at least back to first decade this century. Their vulnerability index ranked close to the top, somewhat offset by their significant economic power to adapt. Agricultural reports translated directly into food issues and Chinese citizens needed secure nutritional sources. The potential of a Green Sahara appealed to the Chinese, but that option needed to appear realistic. Political wild cards floated about too. North Korea might drop technically challenging nuclear arms development, switch to a chlorofluorocarbon factory and shift their threat to augmenting the carbon warming effect. Who could predict? Even if North Korea’s climate vulnerability index ranked right up there with China’s. Enhancing climate change appeared as insanely self-destructive as their nuclear arms program. Then there was Russia. Say the Russians build one of those CFC plants. To save spending on fur coats, the Minister’s face turned into a wry half smiled.

  Tamanna adjusted her visiscreen view, her multiple tasks to-do racing through her mind. The Minister must be getting at something.

  Developing countries had clout, Nishat said, when it came to climate change voice at COP. Especially populous countries like India or China. Tamanna winced at the COP mention, but listened. Either nation could burn coal for as long as they so decided, giving them significant negotiating power. So now, Nishat stated with pride, the HICC had a geoengineering project to hold high in their bartering hand. They must strategize how best to use this newly designed bargaining instrument.

  Tamanna shuffled her chair forward, excited.

  “We reveal our African project.”

  “Possibly, my child.” Nishat touched at the side of her spectacles. “The question at hand being the manner to best do so.”

  According to Nishat, the OECD at best had vague awareness of some Green the Sahara initiative—not a new idea. But a climate engineering aspect remained publically contained—unfathomable to many ears. Surface drones if snooping about detected nothing officially. Details had not been released, nor any information publicized towards the true nature of what the HICCC was doing. Officially, the Sahel enterprise was recognized as an extensive yet benign scientific research effort, hinged on an attempt to make rain with cloud seeding aerosols, any atmospheric release a dated technology effort to stimulate precipitation. This was just how the HICCC wanted to keep things. At least until now.

  “The industrial countries may have a large military, with many planes, tanks and soldiers. But we challenge all of that with our African project.” Nishat appeared calm. “Please, then update the status of our climate cooling project.”

  Tamanna brought up the report she had just composed, reviewing the highlights. Each of her five countries in the Sahel was on, or close to being on schedule. The Niger regional test was technically completed just days ago. Politically emblazoned balloons floating above the city of Niamey, had gained the slightest of global attention, international media paying minimal attention to the inner workings of an obscure country like Niger. The more hidden away balloons around the Ayăr Mountains had recently gone skyward, achieving release requirements calculated by the engineers, and confirmed by the climate model analyst. She glanced at the Minister. The Niger team now referred to their project as Pinatubo the Second.

  The other four nations, two on each side of Niger east and west, had completed test releases, synchronized enough to say the Sahel regional Phase III option was good to go. Aircraft design quotes from India and Brazil for the mid-Atlantic release had received notification, and would be confirmed in days. Those redesigned planes would be required, if the HICCC wanted optimal effect for the Phase III regional project. And, engineering teams would have to know about each other. “To gain that extra ocean impact on stimulating the monsoon,” she paused to emphasize. As things stood, Niger had extra release capacity, and as the centrally located country had potential to be the only release point. Niger’s solitary discharge was technically a backup, knowing sulphur would spread east and west across the Sahara on its way towards the Mediterranean.

  “Excellent.” Nishat nodded. “We have become a precipitous and serious hazard to the industrial nations—or as they might term it, a clear and present danger.”

  Tamanna pulled her chair up tight to her desk, leaning forward to listen.

  “We do plan to re-engage the OECD,” Nishat’s said. “But our High Impact consortium will first invite these wealthy countries to act in a less than traditional fashion. We will reveal our climate cooling initiatives to all governments and simultaneously to their citizens through last minute press releases to global media.”

  With the Sahel project as a pivotal playing card, the HICCC would, during the critical final hours, let it be known they had a proposal for the OECD at the next Conference of the Parties. That began in but two days making an opportune staging ground for further news releases.

  Nishat had been discussing the idea of a messenger with her advisors and what had been suggested as almost radical initially, had been gaining momentum in her mind and the minds of her advisors.

  “We must choose one of the OECD members as a messenger.”

  “A messenger?”

  “Yes, my child. We select a country best suited to bring our communiqué before other high carbon delegates at COP,” Nishat said. “My advisors have spoken at length and narrow
ed it down to two. I would like your feedback.”

  “Which two?”

  “Russia, or Canada.”

  Tamanna scrambled to find that data from Vince. She pulled the global digital map from cloud to screen, carbon figures floating over each respective country. The two Nishat mentioned leaped out from the model as the most extensive in national borders. She made her screen available to the Minister.

  “These two northern countries might benefit from a warming climate.” Nishat spoke to Tamanna’s pointing cursor. Perhaps in controversial ways, and not identical, but benefits none the less. Especially relative to other parts of the world. Two Arctic nations extensive in land mass, two of a kind in a non Nordic way. Their coastlines ran long on the Arctic Ocean, and each had a huge agricultural bread basket with a short growing season. They had claims laid on extended economic zones for resources under the now disappeared Arctic ice. A longer growing season, and for some Nishat heard conversation, a longer golfing season.

  Nishat highlighted points on the Canadian record, their elevated level of consumer-oriented energy use, over consumption really, especially when compared to the cold and northern Nordic countries. In a country like Sweden or Norway, one third of the energy consumed by any Canadian was transformed through lifestyle into carbon emissions by each Nordic citizen.

  “Do we talk carbon per person or for all the people of a country?” Tamanna asked.

  “Both are relevant,” Nishat said.

  As she listened, Tamanna glanced over the data Vince had mapped for each country. She placed Russia next to Canada to view the geography beside carbon emissions. Russia had five times the Canadian population, and yet interestingly only triple the current annual emission rate. By default, then, Canada had higher emissions per person. Even with Russia’s history showing cumulative emissions over time, the ex-Soviet nation had four times that of Canada. With five times the citizen count, carbon dumping was still lower than Canada’s when you looked to each citizen.

  “I need to hear the science from a climatologist,” Nishat was saying. “How would you compare the climate outlook for these two nations?”

  Tami went over what she knew about projections for mid to high latitudes, as that encompassed both Russia and Canada. Globally there was a slight projection of crop increase for local mean temperature increases of up to three degrees, depending on the crop of course. After the benefits of that warming, however, the gains decreased with further temperature rises. For the ex-Soviet’s situation specifically, the Eastern European heat waves since early century had become a measurable phenomenon, with significant loss of grain exports and the noticeable Russian deaths attributed. EuroWatch reported distinct differences between the Eastern European political voice and the negative climate associated impacts. One must consider adaptation time to shifting climatic zones, shifting crops and agricultural production. On the ground trends showed Russia had not been keeping up with Mother Nature, no matter what the economics theory or political platform. If mother Russia thought higher agricultural production risk worthwhile, they might want to reconsider. Checking Vince’s data Tamanna found Russia to have a higher climate vulnerability risk than Canada. Based solely on risk index, Canada had the most to gain from non-action on climate change.

  “Listen to this.” Tamanna came upon one of Vince’s notes. “The World Bank predicts an increase in the scale of population displacement. So many triggered population moves and a higher likelihood of conflict over diminishing resources such as food, water and energy.” Tamanna read the script out loud. “That conflict could unfold in a way that would roll back development across many countries. In any region where poverty and precarious conditions are the norm. They qualify that conflict a threat multiplier.”

  “Yes.” Nishat nodded knowingly.

  “The largest loss of crops are expected in Sub-Saharan Africa, then the next food production loss happens in China and the United States.”

  One political stickler, Nishat pointed out, was that Russia had for decades been a nuclear armed nation with a permanent position on the UN Security council. Russia needed to score ongoing political points, to show its prominence as a global power house much more so than America’s neighbour to the north.

  “Canada, then.”

  What more did they know about Canada? The only country to ratify and then subsequently drop out of the Kyoto protocol. That put the North American nation in a politically unique situation, with a globally recognized reputation. Except for the Montreal protocol under earlier political circumstance, Canada had become a plague on the global environment. If it ever came about that destructive actions towards the global life support system came to an internationally recognized court, crimes against climate stability would easily be the charged against the Dominion of Canadian.

  “I believe the ‘Dominion of’ to be a historical name for their country,” Tamanna said.

  “Set a time context, my child,” Nishat spoke carefully. “The country bases policy on knowledge from decades in the past.”

  “Oh, I see. So speak to their now obsolete name.” Tami felt excitement grow with her political prowess. “To highlight what should be obsolete policy.”

  Going forward, and having given the OECD a clear opportunity to act on the better-for-all option, Nishat explained, required the High Impact consortium to hold in place a challenge. With that, Bangladesh and others less powerful would gain real voice.

  “One of the engineers in Niger comes from Canada, Minister,” Tamanna said. “In fact, some of the data I am looking at right now comes from his research. You know Nishat, to be honest, he seems to be gaining interest in the project far beyond his contracted tasks.”

  “The one you mention in the latest personnel report,” Nishat said. “Does he speak French?”

  “Yes, he is bilingual.” Tamanna smiled, nodding. “He is married but not happily.”

  “What is his name?”

  “Vince.”

  Nishat looked at her carefully. “Be careful, my child.”

  “Oh Nishat.” Tamanna blushed. “Look, he talks of the adaptation focus in his Canadian province.”

  “And does he realize the delusional danger of that response?” Nishat said. “Adaptation alone is a maladaptive idea. Delusional in the global long term, even towards the government structures now in place. Political research tells us adaptation alone will push past social tipping points, where democracy would be too cumbersome to deal with.”

  “He speaks as if open to knowing, Minister.” Tamanna said.

  “Many people today need move or die,” Nishat went on. “Not only in our Bangladesh, but other places. There may be shifts in Vince’s province.”

  “He knows houses demolished on his city’s flood plain,” Tamanna said. “He understands how climate increases flooding.”

  Nishat described the overall human outlook; many with less adventurous spirit would die before moving. On surviving a hurricane, or a major flood, people tend to believe more highly in their survival ability and become firmer in decisions to stay. Recent rhetoric sounded much better than reality. For these stubborn ones, mitigation was the only hope.

  Tamanna smiled cautiously. Reality, with inherent fears would be gaining audience. The long running global justice deficit would certainly have a new voice.

  “Would you agree with our selection of Canada then?”

  “Yes,” Tamanna nodded. “I would. The Dominion of Canada.”

  The little man with the puffy chest, Vince joked once about his own national government. This North American nation to be instructed as their messenger. And their designated Sahel project message delivered directly from one to other wealthy industrial nations.

  “COP takes place in Italy this year?”

  “In a city called Florence,” Nishat said.

  Recalling Copenhagen and Paris, Tami hesitated, but knowing this voice to be new, and strong, she shrugged off her dismissal of COP.

  “Tamanna, adjust your next circui
t to arrive in Niger last,” Nishat directed. “ And set up a meeting with that Canadian engineer. This supersedes any other priority. Be in Niamey a week Friday.”