Powering the Future: A Scientist's Guide to Energy Independence
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Powering the Future
A Scientist’s Guide to Energy Independence
Daniel B. Botkin
with Diana Perez
Vice President, Publisher: Tim Moore
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© 2010 by Daniel B. Botkin
Pearson Education, Inc.
Publishing as FT Press
Upper Saddle River, New Jersey 07458
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Printed in the United States of America
First Printing March 2010
ISBN-10: 0-13-704976-5
ISBN-13: 978-0-13-704976-9
Pearson Education LTD.
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Botkin, Daniel B.
Powering the future : a scientist’s guide to energy independence / Daniel Botkin.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-13-704976-9 (hardback : alk. paper) 1. Power resources—United States.
2. Power resources—United States—Forecasting. 3. Renewable energy sources—
United States. 4. Energy policy—United States. I. Title.
TJ163.25.U6B68 2010
333.790973—dc22
2009052805
We have only two modes—complacency and panic.
—James R. Schlesinger, the first U.S. Energy Secretary,
commenting on the country’s approach to energy (1977)
Contents
Acknowledgments
About the Author
Preface
Introduction
Blackout!
Why did the lights go out?
Can we prevent more, and bigger, blackouts?
First, some terms you need to know
A historical perspective
A traveler’s guide to this book
Section I: Conventional energy sources
Putting some reality into energy
Chapter 1 Oil
Key facts
It’s a stretch, but imagine you’re an Eskimo living 1,500 years ago
Where does petroleum come from?
How much energy does petroleum provide?
How much petroleum is there, and how long will it last?
Geography is against us
Where might new oil reserves be found?
Two unconventional sources of oil: oil shales and tar sands
Growing worldwide competition for a dwindling resource
If supplies are dwindling, why watch petroleum go up in smoke?
Environmental effects of petroleum
Petroleum exploration versus conservation of endangered species
The bottom line
Chapter 2 Natural gas
Key facts
Is Utah leading the way to the future fueling of cars and trucks?
How much energy does and could natural gas provide?
World use of natural gas
Hope in the deep seas
The bottom line
Chapter 3 Coal
Key facts
This coal comes with laundering instructions
What exactly is coal?
How much coal does the world use?
Are we going to run out of coal?
Burning coal as fuel is a major source of air pollution
Financial costs of environmental damage from coal
The future of coal power
Technologies to make coal cleaner
The bottom line
Chapter 4 Water power
Key facts
A story about water power: the breaching of Edwards Dam
How much of our energy supply comes from water power today?
The energy that dams provide, and how they do it
Downsides of major power dams, especially building new ones
Three Gorges Dam
Dams, in sum
Harnessing the power of rivers without dams
The bottom line
Chapter 5 Nuclear power
Key facts
Indian Point: the nuclear power plant in New York City’s backyard
Nuclear power: no longer new, but suddenly popular
Nuclear energy today and tomorrow?
Where exactly do you find uranium ore?
Could nuclear power plants lead to disaster?
Dead trees standing: a story about nuclear radiation
For those who are interested: more background
The bottom line
Section II: New energy sources
Chapter 6 Wind power
Key facts
Sailboats and windmills are ancient
Can wind energy be a major player in the United States or on the world stage?
Wind energy potential in the United States
How far along is wind power?
Wind power for rural areas, for the poor, for single-family homes, and for less-developed nations?
Downsides: wind power and the environment
The bottom line
Chapter 7 Solar power
Key facts
Crossing Australia at almost 60 miles an hour
The kinds of solar energy
Solar electric generators: using very large, smooth surfaces to convert sunlight to electricity
How much energy does solar provide now?
Another approach: solar energy off the grid
Opportunities for entrepreneurs
Other definitely off-the-grid so
lar technologies
Manufacturing limits
Environmental effects: landscape beauty and competition for space
The bottom line
Chapter 8 Ocean power
Key facts
The wave of the future?
Thermal energy: using the ocean’s temperature differences
The bottom line
Chapter 9 Biofuels
Key facts
Let me tell you about my father-in-law
Use of wood and dung as fuel today
Interest in biofuels has been growing
How much energy do biofuels provide today?
Fuel from waste
What crops are grown today to provide biofuels?
Basic considerations in judging the value of biofuels
Biofuels from lakes and the seas?
Are biofuels the answer?
Biofuels’ effects on the environment
Could great advances be made in biofuels’ energy production?
Should biofuels be wholly disregarded?
The bottom line
Section III: Designing an energy system
Chapter 10 Transporting energy: the grid, hydrogen, batteries, and more
Key facts
Pipelines: one way to get energy where you need it
Transporting electricity: the grid, the smart grid, or no grid?
The bottom line
Chapter 11 Transporting things
Key facts
The new status symbols: hard-to-get energy-saver cars
How could U.S. automakers not have seen it coming?
Transportation basics: how? how much? and how efficiently?
Improving the energy efficiency of transportation
Railroads are a big part of the solution
Can we ever get ourselves out of our cars?
Bicycles in cities
Carless cities: what more can we do?
The bottom line
Chapter 12 Saving energy at home and finding energy at your feet
Key facts
Energy-efficient buildings
The climate near the ground influences energy use in buildings
We, too, radiate energy and are a source of heat
Machine Age buildings: the triumph of steel, glass, and cheap energy over human needs
Green buildings
Energy at your feet: geothermal energy
The bottom line
Chapter 13 Solutions
The simple answer to our energy dilemma
Is there an answer we can live with—happily?
How to begin
Scenario 1: If America does not change its habits...
Scenario 2: Per-capita use unchanged, but reliance changes from fossil fuels to solar and wind
What will this cost?
Scenario 3: Per-capita use drops 50%, solar and wind provide two-thirds
How about a nuclear future?
How to reduce per-capita energy use in the United States
Proposed energy program for federal and local governments
Major conclusions
A final word
Endnotes
Index
Acknowledgments
I wish to acknowledge the important contributions of the following and express my thanks and appreciation for their contributions. First, my wife, Diana Perez Botkin, worked closely with me on the manuscript. She is a professional editor with extensive experience, and we both saw this book as having a potentially useful role and were devoted to it. The extent to which the book is readily readable and accessible is due to her, and also to my sister, Dorothy B. Rosenthal, retired professor of science education, Long Beach State University, who read much of the material more than once. Pat Holl provided invaluable help in obtaining permissions for the book’s illustrations.
Matthew Sobel, William E. Umstattd Professor, Chair of Department of Operations, Case Western Reserve University, provided insightful and important comments and suggestions about the economic analyses and cost forecasting, and carried out some essential economic calculations used in this book.
Kenneth P. Green, resident scholar, American Enterprise Institute, checked my calculations to make sure they were accurate.
My son, Jonathan D. Botkin, checked many calculations regarding alternative energy and helped with the interpretation of technical information. Robert Elliott, former Deputy Secretary of State, State of New York, and past mayor of Croton-on-Hudson, N.Y., helped me understand how best to communicate the ideas in this book to those involved in government and politics.
Professor Brian Skinner, Yale University, Department of Geology, guided me to experts on mineral resources. Dr. Franz J. Dahlkamp, author of Uranium Deposits of the World (originally published in 1993, new edition published February 2009) and member of the Advisory Board of Strathmore Minerals Corporation, corresponded with me about uranium resources, as did James K. Otton, Ph.D., Uranium Resource Specialist, U.S. Geological Survey. Tom Payne, director of the Ferroequus Railway Company Limited and president of the Great Northern Pacific Railway, Inc., provided essential information about costs of railroad construction. Professor Kingsley Haynes, Dean, School of Public Policy, George Mason University, helped with data about automobile transportation. Historian Dr. Alfred Runte, an authority on the history of railroads, helped me contact railroad experts. Ted Scudder, an anthropologist from Caltech and author of The Future of Large Dams, helped with my analysis of major new hydropower installations and the potential or lack of potential for more.
The following read all or parts of the manuscript and provided invaluable suggestions: Kenneth L. Purdy, Charles Sansone, Dr. Bruce Hector, and John Gibson; and Nancy E. Botkin. Dr. John H. DeYoung Jr., chief scientist, Minerals Information Team, U.S. Geological Survey,1 helped to find reliable information about uranium and thorium ores and the economics and future of nuclear energy. Tom Veblen, Cargill Corp. executive (retired) and head of Superior Business Firm Roundtable, author of The Way of Business, helped me understand the perspective of a major corporate business executive on energy and society.
Of course, all statements, calculations, and conclusions are my own and I am responsible for any errors, but I have done my best to avoid any errors in calculations. No one and no organization, foundation, or any other entity has supported this book except the publisher. It is therefore a totally independent assessment by the author.