Powering the Future: A Scientist's Guide to Energy Independence

by Daniel B. Botkin

  57 According to Pimentel and Patzek (2005), government subsidies “total more than 79¢/l [cents per liter, which is $3 per gallon] are mainly paid to large corporations (McCain, 2003). To date, a conservative calculation suggests that corn farmers are receiving a maximum of only an added 2¢ per bushel for their corn or less than $2.80 per acre because of the corn ethanol production system. Some politicians have the mistaken belief that ethanol production provides large benefits for farmers, but in fact the farmer profits are minimal.”

  58 McCain 2003, in Pimentel and Patzek, “Ethanol Production,” 2005.

  59 National Center for Policy Analysis, in Pimentel and Patzek, 2005. About 70% of the corn grain is fed to U.S. livestock (USDA, 2003a, 2003b).

  60 Pimentel and Patzek, “Ethanol Production,” 2005.

  61 Botkin, D. B., and Charles R. Malone, “Efficiency of Net Primary Production Based on Light Intercepted During the Growing Season,” Ecology 40 (1968): 439–444. About 3% stored by the old field’s vegetation is a lot better than desert ecosystems, whose vegetation is able to store less than 0.03% of the sunlight, but similar to what has been found for various forests.

  62 University of Minnesota, “Fuels Made from Prairie Biomass Reduce Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide,” ScienceDaily (11 December 2006). www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/12/061207161136.htm. Accessed 29 January 2008.

  63 Mang, H. P., Biofuel in China. Chinese Academy of Agricultural Engineering (CAAE), Center of Energy and Environmental Protection (CEEP), Ministry of Agriculture PowerPoint presentation (March 2007).

  64 Ibid.

  65 http://news.biofuels.coop/2008/01/15/north-carolina-biodiesel-trade-group-launched/.

  66 Burton, Rachel and Leif Forer, “Introduction to Biofuels: Biodiesel and Straight Vegetable Oil,” Biofuels Program, Central Carolina Community College, Pittsboro, NC, 2007.

  67 Dias de Oliveira, M. E., Burton E. Vaughan, and Edward J. Rykiel, Jr., “Ethanol as Fuel: Energy, Carbon Dioxide Balances, and Ecological Footprint,” Bio-Science 55, no. 7 (2005): 593.

  Chapter 10

  1 The gasoline pipeline explosion stories come from Cat Lazaroff, “Negligence Caused Pipeline Explosion, Suit Charges,” Environmental News Service, 31 May 2002.

  2 Trench, C. J., “How Pipelines Make the Oil Market Work—Their Networks, Operation, and Regulation,” memorandum prepared for the Association of Oil Pipe Lines and the American Petroleum Institute’s Pipeline Committee, New York, 2001.

  3 See Lazaroff, “Negligence Caused Pipeline Explosion, Suit Charges,” 2002.

  4 www.pipeline101.com/Overview/crude-pl.html.

  5 Trench, “How Pipelines Make the Oil Market Work—Their Networks, Operation, and Regulation,” 2001.

  6 www.pipeline101.com/Overview/crude-pl.html.

  7 Estimated from the Association of Oil Pipe Lines, Shifts in Petroleum Transportation, 2000.

  8 R. A. Wilson, Transportation in America, 18th edition (Washington, D.C.: Eno Transportation Foundation, Inc., 2001). “How Pipelines Make the Oil Market Work: Pipelines are Key to Meeting U.S. Oil Demand Requirements Allegro Energy Group.”

  9 Trench, “How Pipelines Make the Oil Market Work—Their Networks, Operation, and Regulation,” 2001.

  10 North American Electric Reliability Corporation, Long-Term Reliability Assessment 2007—2016. (Princeton, NJ: North American Electric Reliability Corporation, 2007).

  11 Ibid.

  12 American Gas Association, www.aga.org/Kc/aboutnaturalgas/consumerinfo/NGDeliverySystemFacts.htm.

  13 EIA, www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/natural_gas/analysis_publications/ngpipeline/. The U.S. natural gas pipeline network is a highly integrated transmission and distribution grid that can transport natural gas to and from nearly any location in the lower 48 states. The natural gas pipeline grid comprises more than 210 natural gas pipeline systems, 302,000 miles of interstate and intrastate transmission pipelines, and more than 1,400 compressor stations that maintain pressure on the natural gas pipeline network.

  14 DOE EIA, www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/natural_gas/analysis_publications/ngpipeline/ngpipelines_map.html.

  15 Trench, “How Pipelines Make the Oil Market Work—Their Networks, Operation, and Regulation,” 2001.

  16 Anderson, Roger, and Albert Boulanger, “Smart Grids and the American Way,” Mechanical Engineering Power & Energy (March 2004). Online at http://www.memagazine.org/supparch/pemar04/smgrids/smgrids.html.

  17 Tverberg, Gail E., “The U. S. Electric Grid: Will It Be Our Undoing?” The Oil Drum, 7 May 2008. www.energybulletin.net/node/43823. This report states that most energy transformers on the grid are more than 40 years old.

  18 Owens, D. K., “Electricity: 30 Years of Industry Change, 30 Years of Energy Information and Analysis,” 7 April 2008. Edison Electric Institute, The Association of Shareholder-Owned Electric Companies.

  19 North American Electric Reliability Corporation, 2007.

  20 Gridpoint website, www.gridpoint.com/news/press/20080514.aspx.

  21 Anderson and Boulanger, “Smart Grids and the American Way,” 2004.

  22 Gelsi, Steve, “Power Firms Grasp New Tech for Aging Grid,” MarketWatch, 11 July 2008.

  23 Dunn, S., Hydrogen Futures: Toward a Sustainable Energy System, Worldwatch paper 157, 2001.

  24 World Wind Energy, www.world-wind-energy.info/.

  25 Rifkin, J., The Hydrogen Economy (New York: Tarcher, 2003).

  Chapter 11

  1 Chmielewski, Dawn C., and Ken Bensinger, “Automakers Are Lining Up Celebrities to Promote the Technology, but the Clean Fuel Isn’t Ready for Prime Time,” L. A. Times, 15 June 2008.

  2 ©2008 Business Wire.

  3 www.dot.gov/affairs/dot8408.htm.

  4 EIA kids’ energy page, www.eia.doe.gov/kids/energyfacts/uses/transportation.html.

  5 Amtrak consumed 14.6 trillion BTUs, which is 4.28 billion kilowatt-hours, in 2005. (See www.narprail.org/cms/index.php/resources/more/oak_ridge_fuel/.) Total U.S. freight transportation is 4.23 trillion ton-miles (2005 value), excluding gas and liquids transported by pipelines. At 0.1 kilowatt-hours per ton-mile, this requires a total energy of 423 billion kilowatt-hours, which is only 5.1% of the total energy used in transportation. This doesn’t seem right. How could passenger travel use up 94.9%? Try this another way: Transportation uses 28% of the total energy used in the United States, which is 8,203 billion kilowatt-hours. Of the total energy used in transportation, 21% is used to transport coal—1,821 billion kilowatt-hours.

  6 One gallon of gasoline contains 29 or 33 kilowatt-hours of energy (depending on whose information you believe). A gallon of diesel fuel contains 40.6 kilowatt-hours. According to Oak Ridge, a gallon of diesel fuel contains 138,700BTUs. One BTU is 2.93 × 10-4 kilowatt-hours. This gives the 40.6 kilowatt-hours per gallon of diesel fuel.

  7 www.marketwatch.com/news/story/americans-drive-11-billion-fewer/story.aspx?gu id=%7B93E83ED2-0EE6-48BF-B104-D82FE8A93D70%7D&dist=msr_9.

  8 According to the DOT 2002 economic report, a railroad train can carry a ton ten miles for 1 kilowatt-hour, and the coal carried by train in 2002 totaled 590 billion ton-miles, which would have required 59 billion kilowatt-hours.

  9 The data comes from U.S. Department of Transportation, Summary of Fuel Economy Performance, March 2004. www.dailyfueleconomytip.com/miscellaneous/average-gas-mileage-relatively-flat-between-1980-and-2004/. According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), the average gas mileage for new vehicles sold in the United States went from 23.1 miles per gallon (mpg) in 1980 to 24.7 mpg in 2004. This represents a paltry increase of slightly less than 7% over the 25-year period.

  10 U.S. Congress, Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. “The Secretary shall prescribe a separate average fuel economy standard for passenger automobiles and a separate average fuel economy standard for nonpassenger automobiles for each model year beginning with model year 2011 to achieve a combined fuel economy average for model year 2020 of at least 35 miles per gallon for the total fleet of pass
enger and non-passenger automobiles manufactured for sale in the United States for that model year.”

  11 According to the Department of Transportation, “Americans drove 1.4 billion fewer highway miles in April 2008 than in April 2007. While fuel prices and transit ridership are both on the rise, sixth month of declining vehicle miles traveled signals need to find new revenue sources for highway and transit programs, Transportation Secretary Mary E. Peters says” 18 June 2008. www.dot.gov/affairs/dot8408.htm.

  12 American Society of Civil Engineers, “Report Card for America’s Infrastructure,” 2005.

  13 Tom Payne, railroad executive and expert, personnel communication with the author, June, 2008.

  14 According to an 1881 New York Times article, in that year, construction of railroads cost $25,000 a mile and 9,358 miles were built, at a total cost of $233,750,000. Translated into today’s dollars (figuring an average inflation of 5% per year), this same construction would cost $119 billion in 2008, or $12.7 per mile. Today a plan to install a French grande vitesse rail line from Houston to Dallas—250 miles—was going to cost $22 million a mile, or a total of $5.7 billion. Amtrak estimates that a new high-speed rail line from Connecticut to Rhode Island would cost $36 million a mile.

  15 www.colorado.edu/libraries/govpubs/dia.htm.

  16 American Society of Civil Engineers, 2005.

  17 Ibid.

  18 U.S. Department of Transportation Fiscal Year 2011 Budget Highlights, published 1 February 2010. www.dot.gov/budget/2010/2011budgethighlights.pdf.

  19 U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, National Transportation Statistics. www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/.

  20 Ibid.

  21 The Acela gets 0.833 passenger miles per BTU.

  22 www.minnesotarailroads.com/news.html leads to a PowerPoint presentation by Minnesota Railroads that contains this statement that railroads use about one-third as much energy per mile as trucks.

  Chapter 12

  1 DOE, “Building America Habitat Metro Denver,” 29 September 2008. www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/building_america/pdfs/36102.pdf.

  2 Courtesy of DOE/NREL. Photo by Pete Beverly. www.nrel.gov/data/pix/Jpegs/14163.jpg.

  3 This image has been reprinted from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. “Zero Energy Homes Research: A Modest Zero Energy Home,” 2009. www.nrel.gov/buildings/zero_energy.html. Accessed December 29, 2009.

  4 Geiger, R., The Climate Near the Ground (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1950).

  5 Gates, D. M., Energy Exchange in the Biosphere (New York, Harper & Row, 1962).

  6 DOE, “Building America Habitat Metro Denver,” 2008.

  7 Drake-McDonough, C., “Home, Sweet (Green) Home: Developments in Three Communities Work to Attract Buyers by Being Kind to the Environment,” Denver Post, 21 September 2008.

  8 Based on the study Katz, Greg, “The Cost and Financial Benefits of Green Buildings, 2003.”

  9 Another NREL analysis can be found by Anderson, R., C. Christensen, and S. Horowitz, “Program Design Analysis using BEopt Building Energy Optimization,” Conference paper presented at the 2006 ACEEE Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings. http://www.google.com/webhp?rls=ig#hl=en&rls=ig&rlz=1R2SNNT_enUS354&q=Program+Design+Analysis+using+BEopt+Building+Energy+Optimization&aq=&aqi=&oq=Program+Design+Analysis+using+BEopt+Building+Energy+Optimization&fp=baa94940edcea411

  10 Drake-McDonough, “Home, Sweet (Green) Home,” 2008.

  11 Howard, E., Garden Cities of Tomorrow (reprint). Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1965.

  12 Botkin, D. B., and C. E. Beveridge, “Cities as Environments,” Urban Ecosystems 1 no. 1 (1997): 3–20.

  13 Ibid.

  14 Ibid.

  15 Ibid.

  16 McHarg, I. L., Design with Nature (New York: John Wiley & Sons: 1969).

  17 You can see the current list of AIA green building awards at www.aiatopten.org/hpb/.

  18 The 2008 green building condominium winner was Macallen Building Condominiums (Burt Hill with Office dA), in Boston.

  19 Renewable Energy World, “Washington State Law Mandates Green Building,” 21 April 2005. www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/story?id=25765.

  20 Fossil fuels plus nuclear energy provide 94% of the energy used in the United States.

  21 Green, B. D., and R. Gerald Nix, Geothermal—The Energy Under Our Feet: Geothermal Resource Estimates for the United States, N. R. E. Laboratory, 2006.

  22 For example, see the Go Green Development Consortium, Inc., at www.corbinenterprises.com.

  23 www.charlies-web.com/genealogy3/txtx541.html. Accessed 12 August 2005.

  24 This image has been reprinted from Green and Nix, Geothermal, 2006.

  25 According to Doug Rye, Licensed Architect, and Phillip Rye, Licensed Civil Engineer, of Doug Rye and Associates. See www.dougrye.com/geothermal.html.

  26 Green and Nix, Geothermal, 2006.

  27 Ibid.

  28 Ibid.

  29 www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/pages/sec2_2.pdf.

  30 This image has been reprinted from Green and Nix, Geothermal, 2006.

  Chapter 13

  1 U.S. Census Bureau, Table 1: “Projections of the Population and Components of Change for the United States: 2010 to 2050 (NP2008-T1),” 14 August 2008. www.census.gov/population/www/projections/summarytables.html.

  2 Total energy use would increase by 11,718 billion kilowatt-hours, from 29,297 billion kilowatt-hours to 41,016, or, rounding off, to 40 trillion kilowatt-hours from 30 billion kilowatt-hours.

  3 Add to this that hydropower would have to increase by 27% to 1,177 from 861 billion kilowatt-hours, which is unlikely.

  4 North American Electric Reliability Corporation, Long-Term Reliability Assessment 2007—2016 (Princeton, NJ: North American Electric Reliability Corporation, 2007).

  5 Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2001, (Washington, D.C.: December 2000).

  6 Then we use the average annual kilowatt-hour output from an installed kilowatt capacity, which, as I previously discussed, is 2.347 kilowatt-hour over a year from an installed watt of wind turbine, and 1.245 kilowatt-hour per installed watt of solar photovoltaics.

  7 To calculate the required installed capacity for Scenario 2, you take the ratio of the desired energy output divided by the yield. Yield is the kilowatt-hours produced annually per installed watt:

  For wind: I = 15,215/2,347 = 6.48 billion KW

  For solar: I = 15,214/1,235 = 12.3 billion KW

  Additional Tables: Table 13: Power and Energy Costs of Coal, Solar, and Wind

  8 Professor Matthew J. Sobel, William E. Umstattd, professor of operations research at Case Western Reserve University, kindly provided the economic cost analysis, using a social discount factor, for the scenarios in this chapter. He also provided this brief introduction to the concept (25 August 2009):