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Deep Future

Page 30

by Curt Stager


  Goodwin, P., R. G. Williams, M. J. Follows, and S. Dutkeiwicz. 2007. “The Ocean-Atmosphere Partitioning of Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide on Centennial Timescales.” Global Biogeochemical Cycles 21: GB1014, doi:10.1029/2006GB002810.

  Hansen, J. E., et al. 2005. “Earth’s Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications.” Science 308: 1431–1435.

  IPCC. 2007. “Summary for Policymakers.” In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M. L. Parry et al., eds. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

  Jackson, S. 2007. “Looking Forward from the Past: History, Ecology, and Conservation.” Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 5: 455.

  Kump, L. R. 2008. “The Rise of Atmospheric Oxygen.” Nature 451: 277–278.

  Lenton, T. M., and C. Britton. 2006. “Enhanced Carbonate and Silicate Weathering Accelerates Recovery from Fossil Fuel CO2 Perturbations.” Global Biogeochemical Cycles 20: GB3009, doi:10.1029/2005GB002678.

  —M. S. Williamson, N. R. Edwards, R. Marsh, A. R. Price, A. J. Ridgwell,

  J. G. Shepherd, S. J. Cox, and the GENIE Team. 2006. “Millennial Timescale Carbon Cycle and Climate Change in an Efficient Earth System Model.” Climate Dynamics 26: 687–711.

  Meehl, G. A., et al. 2005. “How Much More Global Warming and Sea Level Rise?” Science 307: 1769–1772.

  Meissner, K. J., M. Eby, A. J. Weaver, and O. A. Saenko. 2007. “CO2 Threshold for Millennial-Scale Oscillations in the Climate System: Implications for Global Warming Scenarios.” Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/S00382-007-0279-0.

  Monastersky, R. 2009. “A Burden Beyond Bearing.” Nature 458: 1091–1094.

  Montenegro, A., V. Brovkin, M. Eby, D. Archer, and A. J. Weaver. 2007. “Long-Term Fate of Anthropogenic Carbon.” Geophysical Research Letters 34: L19707, doi:1029/2007GL030905.

  Parry, M., J. Lowe, and C. Hanson. 2009. “Overshoot, Adapt, and Recover.” Nature 458: 1102–1103.

  Ridgwell, A., and J. C. Hargreaves. 2007. “Regulation of Atmospheric CO2 by Deep-Sea Sediments in an Earth System Model.” Global Biogeochemical Cycles 21: GB2008 doi:10.1029./2006GB002764.

  Royal Society. 2005. “Ocean Acidification Due to Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide.” Royal Society Policy Document 12/05. http://royalsociety.org/Ocean-acidification-due-to-increasing-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide/.

  Ruddiman, W. F. 2005. Plows, Plagues, and Petroleum: How Humans Took Control of Climate. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

  Schneider, S. H., and J. Lane. 2006. “An Overview of ‘Dangerous’ Climate Change.” In: Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, H. J. Schellnhuber, W. Cramer, N. Nakicenovic, eds. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

  Schmittner, A., A. Oschlies, H. D. Matthews, and E. D. Galbraith. 2008. “Future Changes in Climate, Ocean Circulation, Ecosystems, and Biogeochemical Cycling Simulated for a Business-As-Usual CO2 Emission Scenario Until Year 4000 AD.” Global Biogeochemical Cycles 22: GB1013, doi:10.1029/2007GB002953.

  Solomon, S., G.-K. Plattner, R. Knutti, and P. Friedlingstein. 2009. “Irreversible Climate Change Due to Carbon Dioxide Emissions.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106: 1704–1709.

  Meehl, G. A., et al. 2007. “Global Climate Projections.” In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, S. Solomon et al., eds. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

  Stager, J. C. 1987. “Silent Death from Cameroon’s Killer Lake.” National Geographic (September): 404–420.

  Stockstad, E. 2004. “Defrosting the Carbon Freezer of the North.” Science 304: 1618–1620.

  Tans, P. P., and P. S. Bakwin. 1995. “Climate Change and Carbon Dioxide Forever.” Ambio 24: 376–378.

  Thomas, B. C., et al. 2005. “Terrestrial Ozone Depletion Due to a Milky Way Gamma-Ray Burst.” Astrophysical Journal 622: L153–L156.

  Thorsett, S. 1995. “Terrestrial Implications of Cosmological Gamma-Ray Bursts.” Astrophysical Journal 444: L53-L55.

  Tyrrell, T., J. G. Shepherd, and S. Castle. 2007. “The Long-Term Legacy of Fossil Fuels.” Tellus 59: 664–672.

  Wigley, T. M. L. 2005. “The Climate Change Commitment.” Science 307: 1766– 1769.

  Zachos, J. C., G. R. Dickens, and R. E. Zeebe. 2008. “An Early Cenozoic Perspective on Greenhouse Warming and Carbon-Cycle Dynamics.” Nature 451: 279–283.

  3. The Last Great Thaw

  Balter, M. 2009. “Early Start for Human Art? Ochre May Revise Timeline.” Science 323: 569.

  Berger, A., and M. F. Loutre. 2002. “An Exceptionally Long Interglacial Ahead?” Science 297: 1287–1288.

  Blanchon, P., A. Eisenhauer, J. Fietzke, and V. Liebetrau. 2009. “Rapid Sea-Level Rise and Reef Back-Stepping at the Close of the Last Interglacial Highstand.” Nature 458: 881–884.

  Bosch, J. H. A., P. Cleveringa, and Z. T. Meijer. 2000. “The Eemian Stage in the Netherlands: History, Character and New Research.” Netherlands Journal of Geosciences 79: 135–145.

  Bowler, J. M., K.-H. Wyrwoll, and Y. Lu. 2001. “Variations of the Northwest Australian Summer Monsoon over the Last 300,000 Years: The Paleohydrological Record of the Gregory (Mulan) Lakes System.” Quaternary International 83–85: 63–80.

  Brewer, S., J. Guiot, M. F. Sánchez-Goñi, and S. Klotz. 2008. “The Climate in Europe During the Eemian: A Multi-Method Approach Using Pollen Data.” Quaternary Science Reviews 27: 2303–2315.

  Brigham-Grette, J., and D. M. Hopkins. 1995. “Emergent Marine Record and Paleoclimate of the Last Interglaciation Along the Northwest Alaskan Coast.” Quaternary Research 43: 159–173.

  CAPE-Last Interglacial Project Members. 2006. “Last Interglacial Arctic Warmth Confirms Polar Amplification of Climate Change.” Quaternary Science Reviews 25: 1383–1400.

  Ceulemans, R., L. Van Praet, and X. N. Jiang. 2006. “Effects of CO2 Enrichment, Leaf Position and Clone on Stomatal Index and Epidermal Cell Density in Poplar (Populus).” New Phytologist 131: 99–107.

  Chen, F. H., M. R. Qiang, Z. D. Feng, H. B. Wang, and J. Bloemendal. 2003. “Stable East Asian Monsoon Climate During the Last Interglacial (Eemian) Indicated by Paleosol S1 in the Western Part of the Chinese Loess Plateau.” Global and Planetary Change 36: 171–179.

  Clark, P. U., and P. Huybers. 2009. “Interglacial and Future Sea Level.” Nature 462: 856–857.

  Cuffey, K. M., and S. J. Marshall. 2000. “Substantial Contribution to Sea-Level Rise During the Last Interglacial from the Greenland Ice Sheet.” Nature 404: 591–594.

  Dansgaard, W., and J.-C. Duplessy. 2008. “The Eemian Interglacial and Its Termination.” Boreas 10: 219–228.

  Demenocal, P., J. Adkins, J. Ortiz, and T. Guilderson. 2000. “Millennial-Scale Sea-Surface Temperature Variability During the Last Interglacial and Its Abrupt Termination.” Eos 81: F675. American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting Supplement.

  Drysdale, R. N., J. C. Hellstrom, G. Zanchetta, A. E. Fallick, M. F. Sánchez Goñi, I. Couchoud, J. McDonald, R. Mass, G. Lohmann, and I. Isola. 2009. “Evidence for Obliquity Forcing of Glacial Termination II.” Science 325: 1527–1531.

  EPICA Community Members. 2004. “Eight Glacial Cycles from an Antarctic Ice Core.” Nature 429: 623–628.

  Froese, D. G., J. A. Westgate, A. V. Reyes, R. J. Enkin, and S. J. Preece. 2008. “Ancient Permafrost and a Future, Warmer Arctic.” Science 321: 1648.

  Gaudzinski, S. 2004. “A Matter of High Resolution? The Eemian Interglacial (OIS 5e) in North-Central Europe and Middle Palaeolithic Subsistence.” International Journal of Osteoarcheology 14: 201–211.

  Granoszewski, W., et al. 2004. “Vegetation and Climate Variability During the Last Interglacial Evidenced in the Pollen Record from Lake Baikal.” Global and Planetary Change 46: 187–198.

  Hearty, P. J., J. T. Hollin, A. C. Neumann, M. J. O’Leary, and M. Mcculloch. 2007. “Global Sea-Level F
luctuations During the Last Interglaciation (MIS 5e).” Quaternary Science Reviews 26: 2090–2112.

  Jouzel, J., et al. 2007. “Orbital and Millennial Antarctic Climate Variability over the Past 800,000 Years.” Science 317: 793–797.

  Kaspar, F., N. Kühl, U. Cubasch, and T. Litt. 2005. “A Model-Data-Comparison of European Temperatures in the Eemian Interglacial.” Geophysical Research Letters 32: L11703, doi:10.1029/2005GL022456.

  Kühl, N., C. Gebhardt, F. Kaspar, A. Hense, and T. Litt. 2008. “Reconstruction of Quaternary Temperature Fields and Model-Data Comparison.” PAGES News 16: 8–9.

  Lozhkin, A. V., and P. M. Anderson. 1995. “The Last Interglaciation in Northeast Siberia.” Quaternary Research 43: 147–158.

  Magee, J. W., G. H. Miller, N. A. Spooner, and D. Questiaux. 2004. “A Continuous 150,000 Year Monsoon Record from Lake Eyre, Australia: Insolation Forcing Implications and Unexpected Holocene Failure.” Geology 32: 885–888.

  Marra, M. 2002. “Last Interglacial Beetle Fauna from New Zealand.” Quaternary Research 59: 122–131.

  Matthews, J. V. 1970. “Quaternary Environmental History of Interior Alaska: Pollen Samples from Organic Colluvium and Peats.” Arctic and Alpine Research 2: 241–251.

  Muller, E. H., L. Sirkin, and J. L. Craft. 19930 “Stratigraphic Evidence of a Pre-Wisconsinan Interglaciation in the Adirondack Mountains, New York.” Quaternary Research 40: 163–168.

  Müller, U. C., and G. J. Kukla. 2004. “European Environmental During the Declining Stage of the Last Interglacial.” Geology 32: 1009–1012.

  Norgaard-Pedersen, N., N. Mikkelsen, and Y. Kristoffersen. 2009. “The Last Interglacial Warm Period Record of the Arctic Ocean; Proxy-Data Support a Major Reduction of Sea Ice.” IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 6: doi:10.1088/1755-1307/6/7/072002.

  Péwé, T. L., G. W. Berger, J. A. Westgate, P. M. Brown, and S. W. Leavitt. 1997. “Eva Interglaciation Forest Bed, Unglaciated East-Central Alaska: Global Warming 125,000 Years Ago.” Geological Society of America Special Paper 319.

  Rohling, E., K. Grant, C. Hemleben, M. Siddall, B. A. A. Hoogakker, M. Bolshaw, and M. Kucera. 2009. “High Rates of Sea-Level Rise During the Last Interglacial Period.” Nature Geoscience 1: 38–42.

  Rundgren, M., and O. Bennike. 2002. “Century-Scale Changes of Atmospheric CO2 During the Last Interglacial.” Geology 30: 187–189.

  Schweger, C. E., and, J. V. Matthews Jr. 1991. “The Last (Koy-Yukon) Interglaciation in the Yukon: Comparisons with Holocene and Interstadial Pollen Records.” Quaternary International 10–12: 85–94.

  Speelers, B. 2000. “The Relevance of the Eemian for the Study of the Palaeolithic Occupation of Europe.” Netherlands Journal of Science 79: 283–291.

  Steig, E. J., D. P. Schneider, S. D. Rutherford, M. E. Mann, J. C. Comiso, and D. T. Shindell. 2009. “Warming of the Antarctic Ice-Sheet Surface, Since the 1957 International Geophysical Year.” Nature 457: 459–462.

  Stirling, C. H., T. M. Esat, K. Lambeck, and M. T. Mcculloch. 1998. “Timing and Duration of the Last Interglacial: Evidence for a Restricted Interval of Widespread Coral Reef Growth.” Earth and Planetary Science Letters 160: 745–762.

  Stringer, C. B., J. C. Finlayson, R. N. E. Barton, Y. Fernández-Jalvo, I. Cáceres, R. C. Sabin, E. J. Rhodes, A. P. Currant, J. Rodríguez-Vidal, F. Giles-Pacheco, and J. A. Riquelme-Cantal. 2008. “Neanderthal Exploitation of Marine Mammals in Gibraltar.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105: 14319–14324.

  United States Geological Survey. 2006. “Vegetation and Paleoclimate of the Last Interglacial Period, Central Alaska.” http://esp.cr.usgs.gov/info/lite/alaska/alaska.html.

  Vaks, A., M. Bar-Matthews, A. Ayalon, A. Matthews, L. Halicz, and A. Frumkin. 2007. “Desert Speleothems Reveal Climatic Window for African Exodus of Early Modern Humans.” Geology 35: 831–834.

  Van der Hammen, T., and H. Hooghiemstra. 2003. “Interglacial-Glacial Fuquene-3 Pollen Record from Colombia: An Eemian to Holocene Climate Record.” Global and Planetary Change 36: 181–199.

  Van Kolfschoten, T. 1992. “Aspects of the Migration of Mammals to Northwestern Europe During the Pleistocene, in Particular the Reimmigration of Arvicola Terrestris.” Courier Forsch.-Inst. Senckenberg 153: 213–220.

  —. 2000. “The Eemian Mammal Fauna of Central Europe.” Netherlands Journal of Geosciences 79: 269–281.

  Velichko, A. A., O. K. Borisova, and E. M. Zelikson. 2007. “Paradoxes of the Last Interglacial Climate: Reconstruction of the Northern Eurasia Climate Based on Palaeofloristic Data.” Boreas, doi:10.1111/J.1502-3885.2007 .00001.X.

  Walter, R. C., R. T. Buffler, J. H. Bruggeman, M. M. M. Guillaume, S. M. Berhe, B. Negassi, Y. Libsekal, H. Cheng, R. L. Edwards, R. Von Cosel, D. Néraudeau, and M. Gagnon. 2000. “Early Human Occupation of the Red Sea Coast of Eritrea During the Last Interglacial.” Nature 405: 65–69.

  Willerslev, E., et al. 2007. “Ancient Biomolecules from Deep Ice Cores Reveal a Forested Southern Greenland.” Science 317: 111–114.

  Williams, J. W., B. N. Shuman, T. Webb III, P. J. Bartlein, and P. L. Leduc. 2004. “Late-Quaternary Vegetation Dynamics in North America: Scaling from Taxa to Biomes.” Ecological Monographs 74: 309–334. Wilson, C. R. 2009. “A Lacustrine Sediment Record of the Last Three Interglacial Periods. From Clyde Foreland, Baffin Island, Nunavut: Biological Indicators from the Past 200,000 Years.” Master’s Thesis, Biology Department, Queen’s University, Kingston, Ontario. Winter, A., A. Paul, J. Nyberg, T. Oba, J. Lundberg, D. Schrag, and B. Taggart. 2003. “Orbital Control of Low-Latitude Seasonality During the Eemian.” Geophysical Research Letters 30, doi:10.1029/2002GL016275.

  4. Life in a Super-Greenhouse

  Archer, D. 2007. “Methane Hydrate Stability and Anthropogenic Climate

  Change.” Biogeosciences 4: 521–544. Bowen, G. J., and B. B. Bowen. 2008. “Mechanisms of PETM Global Change Constrained by a New Record from Central Utah.” Geology 36: 379–382.

  —et al. 2002. “Mammalian Dispersal at the Paleocene/Eocene Boundary.” Science 295: 2062–2065.

  —et al. 2004. “A Humid Climate State During the Palaeocene/Eocene Thermal Maximum.” Nature 432: 495–499.

  Currano, E. D., P. Wilf, C. C. Labandeira, E. C. Lovelock, and D. L. Royer. 2008. “Sharply Increased Insect Herbivory During the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105: 1060–1964.

  Eberle, J. J. 2005. “A New ‘Tapir’ from Ellesmere Island, Arctic Canada: Implications for Northern High Latitude Palaeobiogeography and Tapir Paleobiology.” Palaeo-3 227: 311–322.

  Gibbs, S. J., P. R. Bowen, J. A. Sessa, T. J. Bralower, and P. A. Wilson. 2006. “Nannoplankton Extinction and Origination Across the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.” Science 314: 1770–1773.

  Gingerich, P. D. 2003. “Mammalian Responses to Climate Change at the Paleocene-Eocene Boundary: Polecat Bench Record in the Northern Bighorn Basin, Wyoming.” Geological Society of America Special Paper 369.

  —. 2006. “Environment and Evolution Through the Paleocene-Eocene

  Thermal Maximum.” Trends in Ecology and Evolution 21: 246–253.

  Huber, M. 2008. “A Hotter Greenhouse?” Science 321: 353–354.

  Katz, M. E., D. K. Pak, G. R. Dickens, and K. G. Miller. 1999. “The Source and Fate of Massive Carbon Input During the Latest Paleocene Thermal Maximum.” Science 286: 1531–1533.

  Kennett, J. P., and L. D. Stott. 1991. “Abrupt Deep Sea Warming, Paleoceanographic Changes and Benthic Extinctions at the End of the Paleocene.” Nature 353: 319–322.

  —and L. D. Stott. “Global Warming.” In Effects of Past Global Change on Life. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1995.

  —, K. G. Cannariato, I. L. Hendy, and R. J. Behl. 2003. “Methane Hydrates in Quaternary Climate Change: The Clathrate Gun Hypothesis.” American Geophysical Union Special Publication 54.

  Norris, R. D., and U. Röhl. 1999. “Carbon Cycling and Chronology of Climate Warming During the Palaeocene
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  Nunes, F., and R. D. Norris. 2006. “Abrupt Reversal in Ocean Overturning During the Paleocene/Eocene Warm Period.” Nature 439: 60–63.

  Pagani, M., et al. 2006. “Arctic Hydrology During Global Warming at the Palaeocene/Eocene Thermal Maximum.” Nature 442: 671–674.

  Pearson, P. N., and M. R. Palmer. 2000. “Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentrations over the Past 60 Million Years.” Nature 406: 695–699.

  —et al. 2001. “Warm Tropical Surface Temperatures in the Late Cretaceous and Eocene Epochs.” Nature 413: 481–487.

  Royer, D. L. 2008. “Nutrient Turnover Rates in Ancient Terrestrial Ecosystems.” Palaios 23: 421–423.

  —, R. M. Kooyman, S. A. Little, and P. Wilf. 2009. “Ecology of Leaf Teeth: A Multi-Site Analysis from an Australian Subtropical Rainforest.” American Journal of Botany 96: 738–750.

  Scheibner, C., and R. P. Speijer. 2007. “Decline of Coral Reefs During Late Paleocene to Early Eocene Warming.” eEarth Discussions 2: 133–150. http:// www.electronic-earth-discuss.net/2/2007/.

  Sluijs, A., et al.. 2007. “Environmental Precursors to Rapid Light Carbon Injection at the Paleocene/Eocene Boundary.” Nature 450: 1218–1221.

  Smith, T., K. D. Rose, and P. D. Gingerich. 2006. “Rapid Asia-Europe-North America Dispersal of the Earliest Eocene Primate Teilhardina.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 103: 11223–11227.

  Sowers, T. 2006. “Late Quaternary Atmospheric CH4 Isotope Record Suggests Marine Clathrates Are Stable.” Science 311: 838–840.

  Storey, M., R. A. Duncan, and C. C. Swisher III. 2007. “Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum and the Opening of the Northeast Atlantic.” Science 316: 587–589.

  Svenson, H., S. Planke, A. Malthe-Sørenssen, B. Jamtveit, R. Myklebust, T. R. Eidem, and S. S. Rey. 2004. “Release of Methane from a Volcanic Basin as a Mechanism for Initial Eocene Warming.” Nature 429: 542–545.

  Williams, C. J. 2009. “Structure, Biomass, and Productivity of a Late Paleocene Arctic Forest.” Proceedings of the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia 158: 107–127.

 

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