Deep Future

by Curt Stager

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  Monnett, C., and J. S. Gleason. 2006. “Observations of Mortality Associated with Extended Open-Water Swimming by Polar Bears in the Alaskan Beaufort Sea.” Polar Biology 29: 681–687.

  Moore, P. D. 2004. “Hope in the Hills for Tundra?” Nature 432: 159.

  Mieszkowska, N., D. Sims, and S. Hawkins. 2007. “Fishing, Climate Change and North-East Atlantic Cod Stocks.” Report for the World Wildlife Fund, UK.

  Overland, J., J. Turner, J. Francis, N. Gillett, G. Marshall, and M. Tjernström. 2008. “The Arctic and Antarctic: Two Faces of Climate Change.” Eos 89: 177.

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  Shrinking Sea-Ice Cover.” Science 315: 1533–1536. Smol, J. P., and M. S. V. Douglas. 2007. “Crossing the Final Ecological Threshold in High Arctic Ponds.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104: 12395–12397.

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  Stockstad, E. 2007. “Boom and Bust in a Polar Hot Zone.” Science 315: 1522– 1523.

  Stroeve, J. M., et al. 2008. “Arctic Sea Ice Extent Plummets in 2007.” Eos 89: 13. Torrice, M. 2009. “Science Lags on Saving the Arctic from Oil Spills.” Science 325: 1335.

  Tripati, A. K., C. D. Roberts, and R. A. Eagle. 2009. “Coupling of CO2 and Ice Sheet Stability over Major Climate Transitions of the Last 20 Million Years.” Science 326: 1394–1397. Wilkinson, J. P., P. Gudmandsen, S. Hanson, R. Saldo, and R. M. Samuelson. 2009. “Hans Island: Meteorological Data from an International Borderline.” Eos 90: 190–191. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. 2006. “Walrus Calves Stranded by

  Melting Sea Ice.” Science Daily, April 15. World Climate Report. 2007 “More on Polar Bears.” http://www.worldclimate report.com/index.php/2007/12/12/more-on-polar-bears/.

  9. The Greening of Greenland

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  Level Changes.” Science 310: 456–460. Bamber, J. L., R. L. Layberry, and S. P. Gogenini. 2001. “A New Ice Thickness and Bed Data Set for the Greenland Ice Sheet 1: Measurement, Data Reduction, and Errors.” Journal of Geophysical Research 106 (D24):

  33773–33780.

  —. 2001. “A New Ice Thickness and Bed Data Set for the Greenland Ice Sheet 2: Relationship Between Dynamics and Basal Topography.” Journal of Geophysical Research 106 (D24): 33781–33788. Blanchon, P., A. Eisenhauer, J. Fietzke, and V. Liebetrau. 2009. “Rapid Sea-Level Rise and Reef Back-Stepping at the Close of the Last Interglacial Highstand.” Nature Geoscience 458: 881–885. Cazenave, A. 2006. “How Fast Are the Ice Sheets Melting?” Science 314: 1250–1252. Charpentier, R. R., T. R. Klett, and E. D. Attanasi. 2008. “Database for Assessment Unit-Scale Analogs (Exclusive of the United States): U. S. Geological Survey.” Open-File Report 2007-1404. http://geology.com/usgs/Arctic-Oil-And-Gas-Report.shtml.

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  Francis, D. R., A. P. Wolfe, I. R. Walker, and G. H. Miller. 2006. “Interglacial and Holocene Temperature Reconstructions Based on Midge Remains in Sediments of Two Lakes from Baffin Island, Nunavut, Arctic Canada.” Palaeo-3 236: 107–124. Gregory, J. M., P. Huybrechts, and S. C. B. Raper. 2004. “Threatened Loss of the

  Greenland Ice-Sheet.” Nature 428: 616. Hamilton, G. S., V. B. Spikes, and L. A. Stearns. 2005. “Spatial Patterns in Mass Balance of the Siple Coast and Amundsen Sea Sectors, West Antarctica.” Annals of Glaciology 41: 105–106. Hanna, E., P. Huybrechts, I. Janssens, J. Cappelen, K. Steffen, and A. Stephens. 2005. “Runoff and Mass Balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet: 1958–2003.” Journal of Geophysical Research 110: D13108, doi:10.1029/2004JD005641

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  Sheets.” Science 322: 33. Khan, S. A., J. Wahr, L. A. Stearns, G. S. Hamilton, T. Van Dam, K. M. Larson, and O. Francis. 2007. “Elastic Uplift in Southeast Greenland Due to Rapid Ice Mass Loss.” Geophysical Research Letters 34: L21701, doi:10.1029/2007GL031468. Letreguilly, A., P. Huybrechts, and N. Reeh. 1991. “Steady-State Characteristics of the Greenland Ice Sheet Under Different Climates.” Journal of Glaciology 37: 149–157.

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  Oerlemans, J., D. Dahl-Jensen, and V. Masson-Delmotte. 2006. “Ice Sheets and Sea Level: Letter to Science.” Science 313: 1043–1044.

  Overpeck, J. T., B. L. Otto-Bliesner, G. H. Miller, D. R. Muhs, R. B. Alley, and J. T. Kiehl. 2006. “Paleoclimatic Evidence for Future Ice-Sheet Instability and Rapid Sea-Level Rise.” Science 311: 1747–1750.

  Pritchard, H. D., R. J. Arthern, D. G. Vaughan, and L. A. Edwards. 2009. “Extensive Dynamic Thinning on the Margins of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets.” Nature 461: 971–975.

  Rial, J. A., C. Tang, and K. Steffen. “Glacial Rumblings from Jakobshavn Ice Stream, Greenland.” Journal of Glaciology 55: 389–399.

  Ridley, J. K., P. Huybrechts, J. M. Gregory, and J. A. Lowe. 2005. “Elimination of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a High CO2 Climate.” Journal of Climate 18: 3409–3427.

  Schwartz, M. L. 2005. Encyclopedia of Coastal Science. Berlin: Springer.

  Secher, K., and P. Appel. 2007. “Gemstones of Greenland.” Geology and Ore 7: 1–12.

  Shepherd, A., and D. Wingham. 2007. “Recent Sea-Level Contributions of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets.” Science 315: 1529–1532.

  Stearns, L. A., and G. S. Hamilton. 2007. “Rapid Volume Loss from Two East Greenland Outlet Glaciers Quantified Using Repeat Stereo Satellite Imagery.” Geophysical Research Letters 34: in press, doi:10.1029/2006GL028982.

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  Traufetter, G. 2006. “Global Warming a Boon for Greenland’s Farmers.” Spiegel International Online, A
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  Van den Broeke, M., J. Bamber, J. Ettema, E. Rignot, E. Schrama, W. J. Van De Berg, E. Van Meijgaard, I. Velicogna, and B. Wouters. 2009. “Partitioning Recent Greenland Mass Loss.” Science 326: 984–986.

  Zwally, H. J., W. Abdalati, T. Herring, K. Larson, J. Saba, and K. Steffen. 2002. “Surface Melt-Induced Acceleration of Greenland Ice-Sheet Flow.” Science 297: 218–222.

  10. What About the Tropics?

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  Bar-Matthews, M., A. Ayalon, and A. Kaufman. 2000. “Timing and Hydrological Conditions of Sapropel Events in the Eastern Mediterranean, as Evident from Speleothems, Soreq Cave, Israel.” Chemical Geology 169: 145–156.

  Behling, H., G. Keim, G. Irion, W. Junk, and J. Nunes De Mello. 2001. “Holocene Environmental Changes in the Central Amazon Basin Inferred from Lago Calado (Brazil).” Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 173: 87–101.

  Biastoch, A., C. W. Boning, F. U. Schwarzkopf, and J. R. E. Letjeharms. 2009. “Increase in Agulhas Leakage Due to Poleward Shift of Southern Hemisphere Westerlies.” Nature 462: 495–498.

  Boko, M., et al. 2007. “Africa.” In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M. L. Parry et al., eds. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

  Cherry, M. 2005. “Ministers Agree to Act on Warmings of Soaring Temperatures in Africa.” Nature 437: 1217.

  Christensen, J. H., et al. 2007. “Regional Climate Projections.” In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, S. Solomon et al., eds. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

  Collins, M., and the CMIP Modelling Groups. 2005. “El Niño: Or La Nina-Like Climate Change?” Climate Dynamics 24: 89–104.

  Demenocal, P. B., J. Adkins, J. Ortiz, and T. Guilderson. 2000. “Millennial-Scale Sea Surface Temperature Variability During the Last Interglacial and Its Abrupt Termination.” American Geophysical Union 2000 Abstracts.

  Dessai, S., M. Hulme, R. Lempert, and R. Pielke. 2009. “Do We Need Better Predictions to Adapt to a Changing Climate?” Eos 90: 111–112.

  Easterbrook, G. 2007. “Global Warming: Who Loses—and Who Wins.” The Atlantic 299 (3): 52–64.

  Eschenbach, W. 2004. “Climate-Change Effect on Lake Tanganyika?” Nature 430, doi:10.1038/Nature02689.

  Funk, C., M. D. Dettinger, J. C. Michaelsen, J. P. Verdin, M. E. Brown, M. Barlow, and A. Hoell. 2008. “Warming of the Indian Ocean Threatens Eastern and Southern African Food Security But Could Be Mitigated by Agricultural Development.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105: 11081–11086.

  Giles, J. 2007. “How to Survive a Warming World.” Nature 446: 716–717.

  Hay, S. I., J. Cox, D. J. Rogers, S. E. Randolph, D. I. Stern, G. D. Shanks, M. F. Myers, and R. W. Snow. 2002. “Climate Change and the Resurgence of Malaria in the East African Highlands.” Nature 415: 905–909. Huber, M., and R. Caballero. 2003. “Eocene El Niño: Evidence for Robust Tropical Dynamics in the “Hothouse.” Science 299: 877–88L Huey, R. B., C. A. Deutsch, J. J. Tewksbury, L. J. Vitt, P. E. Hertz, H. J. Alvarez Perez, and T. Garland, Jr. 2009. “Why Tropical Forest Lizards Are Vulnerable to Climate Warming.” Proceedings of the Royal Society, B, 106: 3547–3648.

  Hulme, M., R. Doherty, T. Ngara, M. New, and D. Lister. 2000. “African Climate Change: 1900–2100.” Climate Research 17: 145–168. Landsea, C. W. 2007. “Counting Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Back to 1900.” Eos 88: 197–202.

  Linthicum, K. J., A. Anyamba, C. J. Tucker, P. W. Kelley, M. F. Myers, and C. L. Peters. 1999. “Climate and Satellite Indicators to Forecast Rift Valley Fever Epidemics in Kenya.” Science 285: 397–400. Lobell, D. B., et al. 2008. “Prioritizing Climate Change Adaptation Needs for

  Food Security in 2030.” Science 319: 607–610. Malhi, Y., J. T. Roberts, R. A. Betts, T. J. Kileen, W. Li, and C. A. Nobre. 2008. “Climate Change, Deforestation, and the Fate of the Amazon.” Science 319: 169–172.

  Mayle, F. E., and M. J. Power 2008. “Impacts of a Drier Early-Mid-Holocene Climate Upon Amazonian Forests.” Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 363(1498): 1829–1838.

  Mote, P. W., and G. Kaser. 2007. “The Shrinking Glaciers of Kilimanjaro: Can Global Warming Be Blamed?” American Scientist 95: 318–325. Moy, C. M., G. O. Seltzer, D. T. Rodbell, and D. M. Anderson. 2002. “Variability of El Niño/Southern Oscillation Activity at Millennial Timescales During the Holocene Epoch.” Nature 420, 162–165. Neelin, J. D., M. Munnich, H. Su, J. E. Meyerson, and C. E. Holloway. 2006. “Tropical Drying Trends in Global Warming Models and Observations.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 103: 6110–6115. O’Reilly, C. M., S. R. Alin, P. D. Plisnier, A. S. Cohen, and B. A. Mckee. 2003. “Climate Change Decreases Aquatic Ecosystem Productivity of Lake Tanganyika, Africa.” Nature 424: 766–768. Patt, A. G., L. Ogallo, and M. Hellmuth. 2007. “Learning from 10 Years of Climate Outlook Forums in Africa.” Science 318: 49. Ramaswamy, V. 2009. “Anthropogenic Climate Change in Asia: Key Challenges.” Eos 90: 469–471.

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  Saunders, M. A., and A. S. Lea. 2008. “Large Contribution of Sea Surface Warming to Recent Increase in Atlantic Hurricane Activity.” Nature 451: 557–559.

  Scholz, C. A., et al. 2007. “East African Megadroughts Between 135 and 75 Thousand Years Ago and Bearing on Early-Modern Human Origins.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104: 16416–16421.

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  Shukla, J. 2007. “Monsoon Mysteries.” Science 318: 204–205.

  Stager, J. C., B. Cumming, and L. D. Meeker. 2003. “A 10,200-Year High-Resolution Diatom Record from Pilkington Bay, Lake Victoria, Uganda.” Quaternary Research 59: 172–181.

  —et al. 2005. “Solar Variability and the Levels of Lake Victoria, East Africa, During the Last Millennium.” Journal of Paleolimnology 33: 243–25L

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  11. Bringing It Home

  Bagla, P. 2009. “No Sign Yet of Himalayan Meltdown, Indian Report Finds.” Science 326: 924–925.

  Cannone, N., S. Sgorbati, and M. Guglielmin. 2007. “Unexpected Impacts of Climate Change on Alpine Vegetation.” Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 5: 360–364.

  Danovaro, R., S. Fonda Umani, and A. Pusceddu. 2009. “Climate Change and the Potential Spreading of Marine Mucilage and Microbial Pathogens in the Mediterranean Sea.” PLoS ONE 4: E7006. doi:10.1371/Journal .Pone.0007006.

  Dello, K. 2007. “Trends in Climate in Northern New York and Western Vermont.” Master’s thesis, State University of New York at Albany.

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  Lovett, G. M., and M. J. Mitchell. 2004. “Sugar Maple and Nitrogen Cycling in the Forests of Eastern North America.” Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 2: 81–88.