Deep Future
Page 35
maps of change, 127–29, 133
oceanfront settlements affected by, 125, 133–35, 137–38
of past geological eras, 56–59, 65, 84
rise in 20th century (7 inches), 122, 125
rise in 21st century, projected (1 to 2 feet), 122, 125, 130
rise of, from global warming, 11, 65, 84, 118–21, 122, 125, 130, 166
speed of rise, 122–26, 129–30, 132
seasonal solar heating, 51
seawater
chemistry of, 34, 105
cold, sunken floods of, from Antarctica, 108–9
sediment cores
marine, 73
from PETM era, 69–70
Shanghai, 138
Shea, Judith, 217
shells, marine, 105
attacked by CO2, 36
building and maintaining of, 38, 104–6, 111
silicate rocks, 39
Sirocko, Frank, quoted, 13
Smol, John, 154
snow
predicting, 222
survival of, in a warming world, 76, 223–24
and tourism, 210
South Pole, 139
southern Africa, 198
ancient, 64
climate changes expected for, 204–7
weather system of, 206–7
southern Australia, 207
climate changes expected for, 223, 226
Southern Hemisphere, ice ages in, 23
Southwest, American, climate changes expected for, 223, 226
species, invasive, 226, 231–32
species extinction
in Anthropocene epoch, 4, 12, 62–63
future, predicted, 10
from global warming, 12, 77
irreversibility of, 102, 113–15, 117
local vs. global, 225
and loss of biodiversity, 153–54
from loss of climate zones, 226
Stager, Curt (author)
African lake studies, 188
in high school physics class, 119
Lake Nyos observer, 45–47
professional background of, 2
radio show, 219
upstate New York home, 208, 218
starfish, 114–15
Steffen, Konrad, 165
Stern, Sir Nick, 184
Stickley, Catherine, 160
Stine, Alexander, 208
Stoermer, Eugene, 4
stomatal index data, and CO2 concentration, 54
Stone Age, 9
Stott, Lowell, 72
Sudan, 197
Suess, Hans, 88
Suess effect, 88–93, 97–99
sugar maples, 220–21
sun
eleven-year cycles of, 197–98
energy of, 5–6
sunlight (insolation)
high-altitude deflection of, proposed, 116–17
surface of Earth exposed to, 21–25, 24
super-greenhouse scenario, 67–85
Svalbard archipelago, 142, 145, 148, 176
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, 237
Tanzania, 197
ancient, 71
Tchernov, Dan, 112
temperate zone
climate changes expected for, 203–27
warm/cold cycles in, 186
temperature, global mean
3 to 7 degree Fahrenheit (moderate) rise of, 34–35
9 to 16 degree Fahrenheit (high) rise of, 40–42
ancient, estimating, 55
drop in, from high levels, 38–39
local divergences from pattern of, 212–15
rise of, in Cenozoic, 68–71, 70
temperature, sea-surface, rise in, 69–71, 76
tetraether lipids, 70–71
Texas, 199
Thaler, Jerome, 214, 217
thermohaline circulation (THC), 17–18
thermonuclear war, and extinction threat, 44
350.org, 33, 233
Thule (Qaanaaq), 174
tigers, 136
tilt cycle, 22
time, deep, beyond 2100 AD, 1–3
Tingle, Alex, 128
Tokyo, 137
trawlers, fishing, 111
Treaty of Kiel (1814), 164
trees
ancient, 78–80
northward migration of southern types, 60, 172, 211, 224
optimal temperature ranges of, 220–21
tropics, the, 181–202
temperature rise in, 184–86
weather system of, 188–90, 196–99
wet/dry cycles in, 186–88
Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn, 189
trout, 224
Tuktoyaktuk, Alaska, 157
tumors, 100
tundra, 153, 156
Turkana people, 181–82
ultraviolet radiation, 6
UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, 158
United States
population displacement in, from sea level rise, 132
territorial claims, 164
uranium mining, 159
urchins, 114–15
U.S. Coast Guard, 218
U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN), 183, 214–15
USDA Forest Service, 220
USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service, 231
Venice, 137
Verburg, Piet, 91–92
Vogel, Steve, 75
volcanoes, and extinction threat, 43
walruses, 149
warm-dry linkage, 206–7
warm-wet, cool-dry rule, 187–88
warm/cold cycles, in temperate zone, 186
Washington, Richard, 184
water, glacial-melt, 192–96, 201, 207
water vapor, as greenhouse gas, 75
Watt, James, 8
weather prediction
public’s reliance on, 200–201
run in reverse (hindcasting), 221–23
uncertainty of, 31, 184
weather records
compared against climate model predictions, 221–23
number-crunching of, bias in, 212–14
unreliability of, because of observer inconsistency, 214–16
Weiss, Jeremy, 127
West African Sahel, 184
West Antarctic ice sheet
instability of, sea level rise if melted, 122–23
slide-off event, possible, 35, 124, 130–31, 140, 164
wet/dry cycles, in the tropics, 186–88
whales, 150
Wickett, Michael, 111, 117
Wigley, Tom, 34
wild lands, protection of, 226–27
Williams, Chris, 79
Wiltse, Brendan, 218
Wing, Scott, 78–79
winter, freeze-up and melting records in the Adirondacks, 216–17, 217
Winter Olympics (1980, Lake Placid), 212
wobble cycle (of Earth), 21–22
World Climate Report, 146
Yangtze Delta, 138
Yucatán Peninsula asteroid event, 44
Zachos, James, 42
Zickfeld, Kirsten, 33
Zimbabwe, 199
Acknowledgments
The roots of this book run broad and deep, but the primary seeds that spawned it were the writings of journalist Elizabeth Kolbert and scientist David Archer. One of Kolbert’s stories in The New Yorker (“The Darkening Sea”) opened my eyes to the threat of ocean acidification from global carbon pollution, and Archer’s research articles showed me that the time scales over which worldwide recovery from that pollution will play out are long enough to resonate with my own training in paleoecology. But those seeds also required fertile soil in which to develop, and many others have provided that.
My parents always encouraged my interests in the natural world, and many academic mentors helped them to mature into a profession. At Bowdoin and Duke, those included Janis Antonovics, Paul Baker, Dwight Billings, Larry Cahoon, Chuck Huntington, Art Hussey, Dan Livingstone, John Lundberg, Jim Moulton, Fred Nijhout, Steve Vogel,
Henry Wilbur, and others.
While working on the story of the Lake Nyos gas disaster and other topics for National Geographic magazine, I learned much about science journalism under the guidance of Bill Allen, Tom Canby, Ford Cochran, Rick Gore, Chris Johns, and Tony Suau. Since then, I’ve been fortunate to continue that training with fine writer-editors such as Dick Beamish and Phil Brown (Adirondack Explorer), Betsy Folwell and Mary Thill (Adirondack Life), Maurice Kenny, and Christopher Shaw.
Shortly after joining the faculty at Paul Smith’s College in 1987, I met another group of exceptional journalists at North Country Public Radio, which is based at Saint Lawrence University in Canton, New York. They invited me to provide a scientific complement to news director Martha Foley’s role as interested lay person in a weekly five-minute conversation about everything from dragonflies to continental drift. First under the title “Field Notes” and then “Natural Selections,” Martha and I have recorded hundreds of pieces over the last two decades, many of which are now archived online (www.ncpr.org). Thanks to Martha’s patient but ruthless training, I now feel confident enough about explaining science to general audiences to enjoy it. Many thanks also go to Lamar Bliss, Ken Brown, Joel Hurd, Brian Mann, Ellen Rocco, and the rest of the NCPR team.
Many scientists contributed helpful ideas, feedback, information, and/or quotes to this project. Among them are Jun Abrajano, David Archer, Colin Beier, Dan Belknap, Paul Blanchon, Richard Brandt, Mark Brenner, Gordon Bromley, Ken Caldeira, Anny Cazenave, Brian Chase, Jeff Chiarenzelli, Brian Cumming, Ellen Currano, Kathie Dello, Andrew Derocher, Mike Farrell, Andrei Ganopolski, Gordon Hamilton, Darden Hood, Mimi Katz, Joe Kelley, George Jacobson, Andrei Kurbatov, Marie-France Loutre, Kirk Maasch, Paul Mayewski, Stacy McNulty, Mike Meadows, Johannes Oerlemans, Neil Opdyke, Kurt Rademaker, Don Rodbell, Bill Ruddiman, Dan Sandweiss, John Smol, Konrad Steffen, Gene Stoermer, Lowell Stott, Jerome Thaler, Piet Verburg, Chris Williams, Brendan Wiltse, and Kirsten Zickfeld. During the Copenhagen climate conference in December 2009, the American Geophysical Union organized a volunteer task force of scientists to offer a round-the-clock online resource base for journalists to approach with technical questions. I gratefully acknowledge the input of the following scientists who quickly and clearly answered many of my own arcane questions in that manner: Jill Baron, Jeffrey Dukes, Katharine Hayhoe, William Howard, Imtiaz Rangwala, Jeff Richey, Walter Robinson, Spencer Weart, and Bruce Wielicki. Any errors that remain in the text despite the efforts of these generous and capable experts are of my own doing, not theirs.
My research on African and Peruvian paleoclimates, some of which is summarized in this book, has been funded by the National Science Foundation, the National Geographic Society, and the Comer Foundation. In particular, Dave Verardo and Paul Filmer of the NSF have been great sources of encouragement for public outreach efforts as well as for research. Paul Smith’s College, Saint Lawrence University, Queen’s University, and the University of Maine’s Climate Change Institute have also provided valuable support. My research on climate change in the Adirondacks and the Champlain Basin has been aided financially and logistically by the A. C. Walker Foundation, Paul Smith’s College, and The Nature Conservancy.
Many friends, family, and associates have generously helped with editing, quotes, brainstorming, and/or other forms of support throughout this project, including Ken Aaron, Meg Bernstein, Sandy Brown, Pat Clelland, Lauralyn Dyer, Jorie Favreau, Kathleen Fitzgerald, Martha Foley, Eric Holmlund and his students, Kary Johnson, Devora Kamys, Hillarie Logan-Dechene, Bill McKibben, John Mills, Richard Nelson, Pat Pillis, Cheryl Ploof, Carl Putz, Mimi Rice, Christopher Shaw, Susan and Bill Sweeney, LeeAnn Sporn, Jay and Asha Stager, Mary Thill, and Will Tissot.
You probably wouldn’t be reading this if Natalie Thill of the Adirondack Center for Writing had not invited scientist-author Bernd Heinrich to visit the Adirondacks on a speaking tour several years ago. After we first met and collaborated there, it was his kind endorsement that later landed this project in the capable hands of my agent-to-die-for, Sandy Dijkstra. Without Sandy’s skill, energy, and top-notch staff behind it, along with the additional wizardry of agents John Pearce and Caspian Dennis, the manuscript might not have gained the attention of Thomas Dunne (Thomas Dunne Books, St. Martin’s Press), Jim Gifford (HarperCollins Canada), Henry Rosenbloom (Scribe) and their counterparts at Duckworth/Overlook Press. It has been a pleasure to work with this team, particularly my excellent editor at Thomas Dunne Books, Peter Joseph. And both Meryl Moss Media Relations and Emma Morris (Scribe) worked wonders with publicity.
Above all, I am indebted to my best friend and partner-in-life, Kary Johnson, who has been a constant source of kindness and inspiration through these last three years of research, writing, and editing. Despite the piles of papers cluttering the house, the many evenings and weekends that saw me glued to a laptop, the last-minute requests for one of her beautiful photos or the drafting of a figure or help with a choice of words, and my general all-around obsession with this project, Kary has remained unceasingly helpful, insightful, and cheerfully tolerant of it all. Always willing to entertain a new idea or to help pursue a line of thought, always there when I needed someone to watch my back, she has made this work worth pursuing, and I could never have done it without her.
About the Author
CURT STAGER is an ecologist, a paleoclimatologist, and a science writer with a Ph.D. in biology and geology from Duke University. He has published over three dozen climate-and ecology-related articles in major journals, including Science and Quaternary Research, has written for popular audiences in periodicals such as National Geographic and Adirondack Life, and co-hosts a weekly science program on a local radio station. He teaches at Paul Smith’s College in the Adirondack Mountains of upstate New York and holds a research associate post at the University of Maine’s Climate Change Institute, where he investigates the longterm history of climate in Africa, South America, and the polar regions. Visit the author online at www.curtstager.com.
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ALSO BY CURT STAGER
Field Notes from the Northern Forest
Copyright
DEEP FUTURE.
Copyright © 2011 by Curt Stager.
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HarperCollins Publishers Ltd
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Library and Archives Canada Cataloguing in Publication
Stager, Curt
Deep future: the next 1,000 years of life
on earth / Curt Stager.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-1-55468-662-9
1. Global environmental change—Forecasting.
2. Climatic changes—Environmental aspects—Forecasting.
1. Title.
GE149.S73 2011 363.7001’12 C2010-906989-7
DWF 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
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