communist revolution, 185
computer science, 192
conceptual framework, 158, 206
conservative (party), 19, 22
constraints, 117, 176, 184, 201, 204
context-dependent preferences, 68
continuity heuristic, 147–166, 186, 231
contradiction, strategic, 140
counterrevolutionary efforts, 119
coup d’etat, 76, 80
covert military training, 51
crawling order, 15, 18
criminal networks, 191
Crowe, Eyre, 153, 155, 164, 232
Crowe Memorandum of 1907, 152–153, 160
Cuban Missile Crisis, 5–6, 120–121
Cun Ming, 149, 154
Cuno, Wilhelm, 38
Czechoslovakia, invasion of, 144
Dang vu Hiep, 130
data sets, 168
Dawes, Charles G., 56, 213
de-Americanization, 144
decision making, 4, 69, 196, 219
Defense Department, 171
Dekanozov, Vladimir, 83
demilitarized zones, 92
Democratic Republic of Vietnam (DRV), 108, 126
deterministic ideology, 159
Diem assassination, 116
. see also Ngo Dinh Diem
diplomacy, 64
Directive Number 21, 73
directives, 73, 127–128, 132
Dirksen, Herbert von, 62
disarmament violations, 60
disinformation campaign, 74
Dodd, William E., 89, 92, 206, 221
dogma
communist, 201
Marxist, 76–77, 121
domestic instability, 71
domestic opposition, 117
domestic politics, 110
dominance, 176
drivers
constraints, 117, 176, 184, 201, 204
Hitler, 105
key, 109, 201
Kremlin, 185
messianic, 99
prime, 86
Soviet behavior, 161
Stalin, 75
Stresemann, 63–70
underlying, 165, 176, 183–184
dual policy, Russia, 38
dual use materials, 58
Dung Van Tien, 126
Dyer, Reginald E., 14–15
dynasties, Han, 149
East and West, balance of, 67
econometricians, 175
economic growth, 97
economic interests, 97
Egyptian army, 173
Eight Plenum, 112
Einsatzgruppen, 78
Einstein, Albert, 27
Eisener, Kurt, 30
Eisenhower, Dwight D., 113, 120
election results, 168
Eleventh Plenum, 138
emotional empathy, 75
. see also strategic empathy
enemy intentions, 202
England, aggression of, 96
Enlightenment science, 168
equal rights, 218
escalation, 123–146, 186
espionage, 73, 141
European diplomacy, 64
evolutionary biology, 193
expansionism, 153
failed deterrence hypothesis, 132
Farnham, Barbara, 222
Fearon, James, 132
financial dominance, 176
financial improprieties, 51
Finland, German troops in, 103
First Indochina War, 121
First World War, 8, 22, 24–26, 33, 69, 78, 157, 160, 185
Fischer, Ruth, 31, 35, 37
fixed/fluid motivation, 188
Flaming Dart (military operation), 125, 131
foreign affairs, 88
foreign intelligence, Soviet, 73
Foreign Minister
British and French, 56, 60
Chicherin, 44
Gustav Stresemann, 26–30
Vyachaslav Molotov, 85–86, 95, 103
foreign policy
advisors of, 105
American, 122
analysts of, 233
German, 49, 54, 72
Khrushchev, 114
Locarno, 42
Russia’s dual, 38
Soviet Union, 39
Western, 39, 62
formulation of policy, 156
framework, cognitive, 161
Free-Corps, 30–31
free speech, 93
Fuller, S. R. Jr., 92–93
fundamental attribution errors, 152, 154, 231–232
Funder, David C., 219
Gaddafi, Muammar, 201
Gaddis, John Lewis, 75
Galileo, 167
Gambetta, Diego, 191
Gandhi, Mahatma, 13–24, 184–185, 212–213
Gandhi-Irwin Pact, 23
Gatzke, Hans, 64–65, 218
general election results, 168
general war, 123
George, Alexander, 161–162, 202–203
George, David Lloyd, 29
geostrategic realities, 132
German Communist Party (KPD), 30–31
German People’s Party, 66
German Right, 65, 77
German-Soviet military agreement, 39–40, 44, 104–105
Germany
disinformation campaign, 74
expansion of, 157
Foreign Office, 63, 153
foreign policy, 49, 54, 72
liberal trade relations, 97
police of, 42
policies in, 153
restoring empire, 98
revanchism and, 64
revolution in, 34, 77
Giáp, General, 116
. see also Nguyen Vo Giáp
Gigerenzer, Gerd, 198, 219
Gilbert, Daniel, 190
Gladwell, Malcolm, 198
Glasnost, 7
Gleiwitz incident, 134
global revolution, 77
global superpowers, 176
Goebbels, Joseph, 91, 93, 222
Goldhammer, Herbert, 175
Gopnik, Alison, 193
Gorbachav, Mikhail, 7
Göring, Hermann, 73, 79, 91, 99–100
Gorodetsky, Gabriel, 74
Goscha, Christopher, 110
Gottenburg (ship), 52
government, Popular Front, 111
Graefe, Karl von, 52
Great Britain. See Britain
Great Depression, 90
great mass approach, 2
Great Terror of 1937-1938, 76, 82
Greece, revolutionary movements in, 133
Grey, Edward, 155
gross domestic product (GDP), 179
Grossheim, Martin, 110
Gruening, Ernst, 228
Guanzhong, Luo, 231
guerrilla warfare, 114, 117, 140
Gut Feelings (Planck), 198
Hall, Karin, 99
Hanoi, 107–124, 132
Han Dynasty, 149
Hermann, Margaret, 163
Herring, George, 131
Hersh, Seymour, 233
Hess, Rudolph, 96
heuristics
availability, 149–150
continuity, 147–166, 186, 231
decision making, 4, 69, 196, 219
national characteristics as, 156, 160
pattern-break, 146, 164, 186–187, 219
Heye, Wilhelm, 50, 65
hierarchical pattern recognizers, 5, 172, 192, 194–195
Hilger, Gustav, 59
hindsight bias, 69, 204
Hindu-Muslim unity, 16–17
historical analysis, 119, 140
historical inevitability, 162
historical scholarship, 206–207
Hitler, Adolph, 5–6, 33, 36, 72, 77–78, 80, 86, 88–89, 91, 93, 97, 134, 171, 186
Hitler Speaks (Rauschning), 85
Hitler Youth, 91, 221
Ho Chi Minh, 109, 111, 114–115, 124, 126, 143, 145
Holloway, David, 74
Holocaust, 205
Holsti, Ole, 163
homosexuality, 100
Houghton, Alison B., 33, 41
House of Commons, 19
Hughes, Charles Evans, 33, 40
Hull, Cordell, 89–90, 94, 100
human rights, 96
Hussein, Saddam, 163
ideological agenda, 80, 106
ideological worldview, 201
ideology
deterministic, 159
Marxist, 76, 111, 133
racist, 186
imperialists, 119–120, 127, 139
Indian equality, 18
Indians, injustice and, 23
Indochinese Communist Party, 111
Indochinese Wars, 110, 121, 133
industrialists, 66
inevitable benefits hypothesis, 133
influence and agency, 156
information, analyzing, 2
information theory, 192, 195, 204
intentions and capabilities, 200
Inter-Allied Military Control Commission (IMCC), 33, 56, 58, 66
international isolation, 71
international relations, 156, 192, 200
international relations theory, 179, 232
invasions, 82, 144
Irving, David, 222
Jewish Bolshevism, 28–29, 36, 40, 47, 78, 84, 159
Jewry, 94
Jews
anti-Jewish sentiment, 92, 94
Bolshevism and, 28–29, 36, 40, 47, 78, 84, 159
Marxist, 95
Johnson, Hugh S., 89
Johnson, Lyndon B., 109–110, 122, 124–125, 127–128, 130, 132, 145, 187
Junker aircraft corporation, 37, 48
Kahnemann, Daniel, 68, 149–151, 197–198, 231
Kapp, Wolfgang, 31–33
Kennan, George F., 158–159, 164, 185
Kennan Telegram of 1946, 152
Kennedy, John F., 6, 117
Kershaw, Ian, 94
key drivers, 86, 109, 201
Keynes, John Maynard, 199
Khanh Hoang Nghia, 126
Khrushchev, Nikita, 6, 115
Khrushchev policy, 114
Kill Anything That Moves (Turse), 138
Kim Il Sung, 163
Kissinger, Henry, 6–7, 63, 107–108, 111, 121, 176
Knowing One’s Enemy (George), 202–203
Knowing the Adversary (Yarhi-Milo), 202
Kolberg (ship), 52
Korean War, 120–121
Kosygin, Alexi, 130
KPD (German Communist Party), 30–31
Kremlin, 47, 161, 185
Krestinski, Nikolai, 34, 37, 40–41, 43, 45, 61–62
Kristallnacht, 93–95, 186, 222
Krueger, Joachim I., 219
Krüger, Peter, 45, 215
Kurzban, Robert, 68–69
Kurzweil, Ray, 194–195
labour members, 20–21
Langer, Walter, 102
Langer, William L., 102
Laws, Nuremberg, 92–93
League of Nations, 39, 43–45, 57
Le Duan, 107–124, 144, 186, 224, 226–227
Le Duc Tho, 107–124, 144
LeMay, Curtis, 5–6
Lend-Lease program, 134
Lenin, Vladimir, 29–30, 185, 214
Leningrad Soviet, 47
Leninism, 40
Le Phuong Anh, 225
Liebknecht, Karl, 30
limited war, 123, 126
Lindsay, Ronald, 59–60
Lippershey, Hans, 167
Litvinov, Maksim, 63
loans, American, 66
Löbe, Paul, 50, 52
Locarno Agreement, 26, 42, 44–45, 217, 219
Lodge, Henry Cabot, 128
Logevall, Frederick, 131, 229
Long, Breckinridge, 101
long telegram, 158, 232
long-term trends, 176–177
love force, 185
Lu Duan, 110–117
Lutze, Viktor, 79–80, 89
Luxemburg, Rosa, 30
Maddox mission, 127
Madrid train bombings, 199
Mansour, Mullah Akhtar Muhammad, 1
manufacturing arms, 92
Marshall, Andrew, 173–174, 176, 178–179, 234
Marshall, George, 94, 153, 203
Marxism
Bolsheviks, 28–29, 36, 40, 47, 78, 84, 159
dogma, 76–77, 121
Hanoi, 110
historical analysis, 119
ideology of, 76, 111, 133
Jews and, 85
Vietnamese, 106
Marxist-Leninist, 128, 140, 158, 160
massacres, 14–15, 184
massive retaliation policy, 120
materials, access to, 78
mathematical analysis, 169
McGovern, George, 107
McNamara, Robert, 122, 129–130, 137, 203, 223, 229
meaningful pattern breaks, 180, 192, 195
media, German, 93
Mein Kampf (Hitler), 85–86, 88, 94, 98
memoranda, 152–153
mental empathy, 193
mental illness, 175
mentalizing, 81, 105
Merrick, George, 127
messianic drivers, 99
Metcalf, Barbara, 212
Mikoyan, Anastas, 80
Milgram, Stanley, 205
militarization, 42
military
action of, 103, 125
cooperation of, 63, 67
covert training, 51
dominance of, 176
intelligence division, 122
strategies and, 85
Molotov, Vyachaslav, 85–86, 103–105
Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, 95
moments, pattern-break, 22–23, 68, 88, 185
Montagu, Edwin, 18–20
Moore, R. Walton, 91
Morse, Wayne, 122, 143, 228
motivations, fixed/fluid, 188
Mubarak, Hosni, 201
Munich Agreement, 94
Munich Crisis, 222
Munich Putsch, 42
Murphy, David, 74
Mussolini, Benito, 96, 101
Naimark, Norman, 76, 220
Nam Bak, 144
national characteristics, 156, 160
National Liberal Party, 26
National Liberation Front for South Vietnam, 227
NATO forces, 176–177
Nazis
Brown Shirts, 78, 80, 90
forces of, 74
invasions and, 72, 77
media, 222
rallies for, 92
regimes supporting, 90
rule of, 94
Nazi-Soviet pact, 86
Nehru, Motilal, 23
neocolonialism, 121, 124
neo-imperialists, 118
Netflix, 5
Neurath, Konstantin Freiherr von, 95
neuroscience, cognitive, 204
Neustadt, Richard, 203–204
New Deal, 90
Ngo Dinh Diem, 113, 118
Nguyen, Lien-Hang T., 110
Nguyen Chi Thanh, 116, 129, 133, 135
Nguyen Thuy Nga, 111–112, 225
Nguyen Van Linh, 114
Nguyen Van Troi, 130
Nguyen Vo Giáp, 116
Night of Broken Glass, 93–95
Night of the Long Knives, 79–80, 89, 186
9/11 attacks, 170, 198
Ninth Plenum, 138
Nixon, Richard, 107, 121–122, 144, 176
Nobel Foundation, 56
nonaggression pact, Poland, 78
North-first policy of war, 116
North Sea, 178
North Vietnamese, 109
nuclear war, 7, 120
Nuremberg Laws, 92–93
Obama, Barack, 179
O’Dwyer, Michael, 19
Office of Net Assessment, 173–174, 177
Office of Strategic Services (OSS), 101
officer corps, 82
operational code, 161–164
operational content, 162
Operation Barbarossa, 74, 83, 105, 207
Operation Flaming Dart, 125, 131
Ordinary Men (Browning), 205–206
pacts
Gandhi-Irwin, 23
Molotov-Ribbentrop, 95
Nazi-Soviet, 86
Poland’s nonaggression, 78, 134
Tripartite, 78
Warsaw, 176–177
Palmer, Charles Frederick, 22
Pandora, 5
paramilitary, 78
pattern-break
Amritsar, 18
analysis and, 178
behaviors, 6–7, 15, 70, 89, 93, 99, 151, 161, 164
events, 6–7
heuristics, 146, 164, 186–187, 219
meaningful, 180, 192, 195
moments, 22–23, 68, 88, 185
problem, 198
pattern recognition, 5, 172, 192, 194–195
patterns of behavior, 164
Pearl Harbor, 170
People’s Army (Vietnam), 138
People’s Navy (Vietnam), 124
Perestroika, 7
Petrov (pseudonym), 36
Petty-Fitzmaurice, Edmond George, 155
Pham Van Dong, 226
Philippines, revolutionary movements in, 133
Pieper, Joachim, 39
placement, 204
Planck, Max, 198
plenum, 112, 119–120, 138, 143
Poland, nonaggression pact, 78
police force, 79
police militarization, 42
police state, 91
policies
American foreign, 122
analysts of, 187
formulation of, 156
German foreign, 49, 54, 72
independent, 65
Khrushchev, 114
leadership style and, 163
Locarno, 42
massive retaliation, 120
nuclear war, 120
protracted war, 138–139
quarantine, 134
racial, 100
Russia’s dual, 38
Schaukelpolitik, 67
South/North-first, 116
Soviet foreign, 39
Western, 39, 62
Polish aggression, 78, 134
Polish Corridor, 44
Politburo, 29, 34, 127–128, 132, 144
political leaders, British, 18–19
political science, 200
poor planning hypothesis, 133
Popular Front government, 111
Post, Jerrold, 165
The Predictioneer’s Game (Bueno de Mesquita), 171
predictions, 191, 194
preference predictions, 5
pre/postescalation phase, 137
Press, Daryl, 202
primary election results, 168
prime drivers, 86
production, war materials, 38
professional officer corps, 79
programs, Reichswehr secret, 65–66
projected rationality, 73–86
propagandistic terms, 136
protests, civil rights, 122
protracted war
guerrilla warfare, 117
policies, 138–139
strategies of, 137, 141–142, 145
psychobiographies, 102, 165
psychological assessments, 101
psychological warfare, 141–142
psychology, cognitive, 196
puppet army, 118, 123, 132, 135–138, 142
putsch, 33, 42, 81
A Sense of the Enemy Page 32