quantitative analysis, 180
quantitative assessments, 170–171
quantitative methods, 184
quants, 169–170, 172
quarantine policy, 134
Quinn-Judge, Sophie, 116
racialist dogma, 201
racial policies, 100
racism vs. realism, 95
racist ideology, 186
Radek, Karl, 34–35
RAND corporation, 161, 175
Rapallo Treaty, 31, 55
Rathenau, Walther, 30–31
rational decision making, 4, 69, 196, 219
Rauschning, Hermann, 85
realism, 78
Realpolitik-fanaticism, 102
rearmament program, 66
Red Army, 37, 46, 59, 65
reductive generalizations, 160
regimes
Bolshevik, 28–29, 36, 40, 47, 78, 84, 159
Nazi, 90
South Vietnamese, 118
Soviet, 40
Weimar, 43, 218
Reichstag address, 51–54
Reichswehr, 33, 41, 44, 46–47, 59, 65–66, 69–70, 90–91
Reserve Police Battalion, 205
Resolution from the Ninth Plenum, 119–120
revanchism, 64
revisionism, 115
revolutions
Arab Spring, 179
communist, 185
counterrevolutionary efforts, 119
German, 34, 77
global, 77
movements of, 119, 133
socialist, 135
Tunisia, 179
Rhine, demilitarized zone, 92
Ribbentrop, Joachim von, 95, 97
Roberts, Geoffrey, 74, 76
Röhm, Ernst, 78–81, 89–90
Romance of the Three Kingdoms (Guanzhong), 148
Romania, German troops in, 103
Roosevelt, Franklin D., 86, 88–106, 134, 206, 222
Rote Fahne, 35, 45
Royal Air Force, 105
Ruhr occupations, 32, 34
Rusk, Dean, 129, 203, 221
Russia
dual policy of, 38
German invasion of, 82
Stresemann and, 33–36
Russo-Finnish War, 76
Russo-German relations, 43–44, 46, 59, 63
sado-masochism, 101
Sanderson, Thomas Henry, 156–157
Schacht, Hjalmar, 92–93
Schaukelpolitik policy, 67
Scheidemann, Philipp, 31, 49–54, 57, 60–61, 65, 185, 213
Schubert, Karl von, 37, 46, 48, 62–63
Schuker, Stephen, 64–65
Schulenburg, Werner von, 55, 83
Schurman, Jacob Gould, 46, 49
Schutzstaffel (SS), 79
scientific analysis, 126
Second Indochina War, 133
Second International, 62
Second World War, 59, 64, 94–95, 134, 140, 172, 175–176, 203, 213
secret programs, Reichswehr, 65–66
Seeckt, Hans von, 33, 42
self-fulfilling prophecy, 152
self-rule movement, 16
sexuality, 101–102
Shannon, Claude, 192–193, 195
Shirer, William, 16
Shuster, Richard, 217
The Signal and the Noise (Silver), 169
Sikhs, British military and, 20
Silver, Nate, 168–170, 191
Sima Yi, 147–149, 154
Simons, Daniel, 3–4
simulation theory, 81–82, 105, 186, 220
simulators, 81–87
Sino-Soviet split, 115
Skoblevsky, Peter, 34, 36, 48
slave trade, 200
Sleeping Dragon, 147–148
Slumdog Millionaire (movie), 11–13
Social Democratic Party, 49, 51, 62–63
socialist bloc, 142
socialist revolution, 135
software programs, 169, 194
Sorge, Richard, 73
Southeast Asian Treaty Organization (SEATO), 121
Southern strategy and tactics, 117
South-first policy of war, 116
South Vietnamese
communists, 137
regimes, 118
revolutionary army, 135
Soviet
bluff of, 61
foreign intelligence, 73
foreign policy, 39
invasion of Czechoslovakia, 144
regime of, 40
spies and, 73
Soviet Air Force, 74
Soviet cloak, 52
Soviet-German agreement, 39–40, 44, 104–105
Soviet strategy, 177–178
special war, 123, 125
speeches
Reichstag, 53
Rote Fahne, 35, 45
Scheidemann, 50–53, 61, 65
speech recognition software, 194
Spence, Michael, 191
spies, 73, 141
Spoor, B. G., 20
spring-summer campaign, 138
Stalin, Josef, 34, 54, 73–86, 88, 162, 185, 214
Stalin Digital Archive, 207
statecraft, 188, 193–194
static national character traits, 156, 160
Stern-Rubarth, Edgar, 218
Stinnes, Hugo, 33
strategic contradiction, 140
strategic empathy, 1–13, 74–75, 101, 105–106, 128, 132, 141, 164, 180, 184, 186, 189, 192, 195, 201
strategies
American Cold War, 158, 160–161, 174, 176–178
military, 85
non-violence as, 22
protracted war, 117–123, 137, 141–142, 145
Soviet, 177–178
US, 211
war, 117–123, 137
Western, 27
Stresemann, Gustav, 24–26, 32, 34–35, 37, 44–45, 50–72, 92, 185, 213–214, 218
Sturmabteilung (SA), 78–79, 90–91
subterfuge, acts of, 51
systems of the mind, 68
Taleb, Nassim, 190
Taliban, 1
talking while fighting tactic, 142
Taylor, Maxwell, 122
technology, advances in, 166
telescopes, 167
terrorist methods, 130
Tetlock, Philip, 190
Tet Offensive, 143–144
Thayer, Carlyle, 122
theorists, international relations, 179
theory of mind, 81, 193, 195
theory theory, 81, 103, 220
Thinking Fast and Slow (Kahneman), 149
Thinking in Time (Neustadt), 203
“thin slice” approach, 2
Tiedemann, Christoph, 4
Tonkin Gulf episode, 110, 125–127, 186
Trachtenberg, Marc, 207, 211
training, covert military, 51
Treaty of Versailles, 49, 60
trends, long-term, 176–177
Tripartite Pact, 78
Trotsky, Leon, 34–35, 38–39, 41, 47, 76–77, 162, 185, 214
Truman, Harry S., 158
Truong Chinh, 114
Truppenamt, 50
Tsarist rulers, 159
Tuchman, Barbara, 229
Tunisia revolution, 179
Tuong Vu, 110
Turse, Nick, 138
Tversky, Amos, 198
Twelfth Plenum, 138, 143
Tzu Sun, 3, 140, 149
underdogs, 107–110, 117
underlying drivers, 165, 176, 183–184
Untermenschen, 77
USS Houston (ship), 90
USS Maddox (ship), 125–126
Vallentin, Antonina, 27
Van Kien Dang (war records), 109, 119, 122, 129, 207
Versailles Treaty, 27, 39, 43, 49, 51, 58, 98
Viet Cong forces, 125, 129, 133
Vietnam
Marxists in, 106
neocolonial rule over, 124
Vietnamese Communist movement, 115
Vietnamese Workers’ Party (VWP), 109–110,
112, 114, 135
Vietnamization, 144
Vietnam War, 107–146
violations, disarmament, 60
Vohs, Kathleen, 197
Volkogonov, Dmitri, 74
warfare
guerrilla, 114, 117, 140
psychological, 141
war material, production of, 38, 51
wars
of aggression, 120
American Civil, 29
Arab-Israeli, 144
Cold War, 158, 160–161, 174, 176–178
Indochina, 110, 121, 133
Korean, 120–121
North/South first, 116
Russo-Finnish, 76
types of, 123, 126
Vietnam, 108, 110
World War I, 160
World War II, 95, 213
Warsaw Pact, 176–177
weapons of mass destruction, 202
weapons transfer, 48
Wedgwood, Josiah, 20
Wei Army, 147
Weimar regime, 43, 218
Weimar Republic, 71
Weizsacker, Ernst von, 96
Welles, Sumner, 87, 95–97, 100–101
Welles Mission, 101
Western policy, 39, 62
Western strategy, 27
Wheeler, John Archibald, 192
Wilhelmstrasse, 95
Wolpert, Stanley, 212
world revolutionary movement, 119
worldview, 77, 85–86, 163, 201
World War I, 160
World War II, 95, 213
Wright, Jonathan, 64–65, 218
Xuan Thuy, 144
Yarhi-Milo, Keren, 202
Zhdanov, Andrei, 85, 95
Zhukov, Marshall, 86
Zimbardo, Philip, 205
Zinoviev, Grigory, 34–35, 41, 44, 47, 162
A Sense of the Enemy Page 33