The Pentagon's New Map

by Thomas P. M. Barnett

  Daniel Altman, “First, the War; Now, Investor Consequences,” New York Times, 30 April 2003.

  Chapter 5. THE NEW ORDERING PRINCIPLE

  248 As I later wrote of Emily, “she is the girl that lived.”

  My wife and I kept a diary of our daughter’s medical treatments called “The Emily Updates: A Year in the Life of a Three-Year-Old Struggling with Cancer.” The unpublished manuscript is still used for educational purposes at Georgetown University Hospital.

  OVERTAKEN BY EVENTS

  251 In fact, we spent almost no time . . . International Security Dimension Project.”

  Materials relating to all aspects of the project, including the final report, can be found online at www.nwc.navy.mi/y2k.

  253 Then an article was posted . . . muckraking journalist Jack Anderson.

  Jack Anderson and Jan Moller, “The Government’s Secret Y2K Plans,” Deseret News, 3 May 1999, found online at www.deseretnews.com.

  254 In the end, plots to attack . . . were likewise discovered and derailed.

  For good coverage of this trial and the associated plot, go to PBS.org and the coverage provided by Frontline, found online at www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/trail/.

  256 It was not just Vice President . . . sent away to “undisclosed locations.”

  Barton Gellman and Susan Schmidt, “Shadow Government Is at Work in Secret: After Attacks, Bush Ordered 100 Officials to Bunkers Away from Capital to Ensure Federal Survival,” Washington Post, 1 March 2002.

  256 Americans did buy more guns.

  Al Baker, “Steep Rise in Gun Sales Reflects Post-Attack Fears,” New York Times, 16 December 2001; Al Baker, “Fed Feeds a New Bull Market in Private Security Services,” New York Times, 27 October 2001; Michael McCarthy, “Fear Industry Booms as Uneasy Citizens Seek Safety,” USA Today, 8 August 2002; and Barnaby J. Feder, “A Surge in Demand to Use Biometrics,” New York Times, 17 December 2002.

  256 Many people could not sleep . . . medication at significantly higher rates.

  Linda Carroll, “Sleepless Nation: What Can You Do to Put Terrorism Fears and Anthrax Anxiety to Rest at Night?,” MSNBC.com, 24 October 2001, found online at www.msnbc.com/news/646055.asp; MSNBC News Services, “Six in 10 Take Bioterror Precautions: Poll Suggest Anthrax Worries Affect Most Americans,” MSNBC.com, 8 November 2001, found online at www.msnbc.com/news/654679.asp; Abigail Trafford, “Terror Attacks the Mentally Ill,” Washington Post, 23 October 2001; and Tamar Levin, “Bioterrorism and Anxiety Are Swelling Prescriptions,” New York Times, 1 November 2001.

  256 Civil rights groups reported . . . Muslims in both America and Europe.

  Darryl Fears, “Hate Crimes Against Arabs Surge, FBI Finds,” Washington Post, 26 November 2002; Craig S. Smith, “Racism Up After 9/11, European Monitor Says,” New York Times, 11 December 2002; and Mary Beth Sheridan, “Muslims in U.S. Feel Targeted by Anti-Terror Business Policies,” Washington Post, 9 July 2003.

  256 Governments all over the world . . . (Russia’s struggle with Chechnya’s rebels).

  For examples of this phenomenon, see Craig S. Smith, “China, in Harsh Crackdown, Executes Muslim Separatists,” New York Times, 16 December 2001; Tim Golden, “Buoyed by World’s Focus on Terror, Spain Cracks Down in Basque Region,” New York Times, 29 August 2002; “For Whom the Liberty Bell Tolls: Almost Everywhere, Governments Have Taken September 11th as an Opportunity to Restrict Their Citizens’ Freedom,” The Economist, 31 August 2002; Associated Press, “One Effect of 9/11: Less Privacy (New Surveillance Laws Passed Worldwide, Report Says),” MSNBC.com, found online at www.msnbc.com/news/802878.asp; Michael Wines, “War on Terror Casts Chechen Conflict in New Light: Ties Are Seen Between Rebels and Foreign Extremists, Bolstering Claims by Russia,” New York Times, 9 December 2001; and Serge Schmemann, “Antiterror Actions Can Be Too Harsh,” New York Times, 12 January 2002.

  256 Insurance companies suddenly . . . from just in time to just in case.

  Dean Starkman, “Moody’s Downgrades Securities on Lack of Terrorism Insurance,” Wall Street Journal, 30 September 2002; Jackie Spinner, “Firms Rejecting Terror Coverage: Insurers Say Few Companies Feel Risk, Accepts Costs,” Washington Post, 25 February 2003; Christopher Oster, “War Would Test Statute Governing Terror Insurance,” Wall Street Journal, 18 March 2003; Richard Karpinski, “Web Supply Chains Revised,” lnternetWeek.com, 28 September 2001, found online at www.internetweek.com/newslead01/lead092801.htm; “9/11 Insurance Crisis Could Cause Major Property Foreclosures Across the United States,” Business Facilities: The Location Advisor, May 2002, found online at www.facilitycity.com/busfac/bf_02_05_statenews.asp.

  256 All that remains now . . . un-American activities in the age of global terrorism.

  Adam Liptak, Neil A. Lewis, and Benjamin Wesier, “After Sept. 11, a Legal Battle on the Limits of Civil Liberty,” New York Times, 4 August 2002.

  257 There will be other 9/11s until . . . defense establishment around it.

  As far as the Core as a whole is concerned, progress on this front is slow. For an example of a critical assessment of the Core’s ability to withstand future bioterrorism, see Shankar Vedantam, “WHO Assails Wealth Nations on Bioterror: Coordination of Defenses Poor in Simulation; U.S. Support for Agency Questioned,” Washington Post, 5 November 2003.

  THE RISE OF SYSTEM PERTURBATIONS

  259 They had backup facilities . . . business Thursday morning, September 13.

  For the details behind this story, see Tom Barbash, On Top of the World: Cantor Fitzgerald, Howard Lutnick, and 9/11: A Story of Loss and Renewal (New York: HarperCollins, 2003), pp. 29-44.

  260 When the United States took down . . . afforded unprecedented prominence.

  For details, see Thom Shanker, “Conduct of War Is Redefined by Success of Special Forces,” New York Times, 21 January 2002.

  261 When the Arab world saw Marines . . . world was turned upside down.

  For a description of this phenomenon, see Neil MacFarquhar, “Humiliation and Rage Stalk the Arab World,” New York Times, 13 April 2003.

  262 This is what Thomas Homer-Dixon calls “complex terrorism.”

  Thomas Homer-Dixon, “The Rise of Complex Terrorism,” Foreign Policy, January-February 2002, pp. 52-62.

  263 One baby in China . . . all the follow-on cases he generated.

  Donald G. McNeil, Jr., and Lawrence K. Altman, “How One Person Can Fuel an Epidemic,” New York Times, 15 April 2003.

  263 It is quite possible that just one . . . China’s sizzling GDP growth for the year.

  For the story of the physician who is believed to have triggered many of the cases in Hong Kong, see Ellen Nakashima, “SARS Signals Missed in Hong Kong: Physician’s Visit May Have Led to Most Known Cases,” Washington Post, 20 May 2003.

  263 China tried its usual . . . want to avoid even more bans on travel!”

  For details, see Rob Stein, “WHO Tells Travelers to Avoid Hong Kong, China: UN. Group Takes Unprecedented Step to Stem Epidemic,” Washington Post, 3 April 2003.

  263 Political leaders in China . . . SARS cases would be punished most severely.

  See John Pomfret, “Underreporting, Secrecy Fuel SARS in Beijing, WHO Says,” Washington Post, 17 April 2003; Peter Wonacott, Norihiko Shirouzu, and Jon E. Hilsenrath, “Foreign Firms Face Setbacks as SARS Cases Mount in China,” Wall Street Journal, 23 May 2003; and John Pomfret, “China Orders End to SARS Coverup: Belated Campaign Against Disease Begins,” Washington Post, 19 April 2003.

  264 A Chinese news media outlet . . . senior party corruption anytime soon.

  For details, see Geoffrey York, “SARS Crisis Emboldens China’s Media,” The Globe & Mail, 14 June 2002; and John Pomfret, “China’s Crisis Has a Political Edge: Leaders Use SARS to Challenge Recalcitrant Parts of Government,” Washington Post, 27 April 2003.

  265 But because 9/11 begat anthrax mania . . . launching the Doha Round.

  For some great coverage of this fascinating story line, see Louis Uchitelle, ”Globalization March
es On, as U.S. Eases Up on the Reins,” New York Times, 17 December 2001; “Dealing with Anthrax: Patent Problems Pending: The Rich World Should Apply the Same Rules to Drugs in Poor Countries as at Home,” The Economist, 27 October 2001; “World Trade Organization: A Deal at Doha?: The Launch of a Round of Global Trade Talks Is Close, If Politicians Compromise,” The Economist, 3 November 2001; and Joseph Kahn, “Nations Back Freer Trade, Hoping to Aid Global Growth,” New York Times, 15 November 2001.

  266 At that point, the Core’s . . . said in effect, “Over our dead bodies!”

  Tom Hamburger, “U.S. Flip on Patents Shows Drug Makers’ Growing Clout: Political Donors Get Help in Reversing Policy on Poor Nations’ Access to Cheaper Medicine,” Wall Street Journal, 6 February 2003.

  266 So, needless to say . . . as they crank out AIDS cocktail drugs cut-rate.

  Geoff Winestock and Neil King, Jr., “Patent Restraints on AIDS Drugs to Be Eased for Developing World,” Wall Street Journal, 25 June 2002.

  266 More progress on many such fronts . . . quite frankly—too Gap-oriented.

  Andrew Pollack, “Drug Makers Wrestle with World’s New Rules: A Delicate Balance: Patriotism vs. Business,” New York Times, 21 October 2001.

  THE GREATER INCLUSIVE

  268 The signs are all around . . . assassinations of terrorist targets upon sighting.

  David Johnston and David E. Sanger, “Yemen Killing Based on Rules Set Out by Bush,” Washington Post, 6 November 2002.

  268 The Justice Department . . . priorities before 9/11, and a new one afterward.

  Adam Clymer, “How Sept. 11 Changed Goals of Justice Dept.: Fighting Terror Didn’t Lead Ashcroft’s List,” New York Times, 28 February 2002.

  268 That changes not just the . . . cops get left holding the bag on everything else.

  Susan Schmidt, “Counterterrorism, Cybercrime Are Focus of FBI’s Overhaul,” Washington Post, 4 December 2001; and Gary Fields and John R. Wilke, “The Ex-Files: FBI’s New Focus Places Big Burden on Local Police: With Terror Its Top Priority, Bureau Pulls Resources from Core Crime Fighting: Little Time for Bank Heists,” Wall Street Journal, 20 June 2003.

  268 When the Attorney General says . . . that is a new rule set.

  Dan Eggen, “Neighborhood Watch Enlisted in Terror War: Citizens Urged to Step Up in $2 Million Expansion,” Washington Post, 7 March 2002.

  268 When three out of every four mayors . . . screaming out for a new rule set.

  Jodi Wilgoren, “At One of 1,000 Front Lines in U.S., Local Officials Try to Plan for War,” New York Times, 19 June 2002.

  268 When the FBI Director opens a new office in Beijing, that is a new rule set.

  Elisabeth Rosenthal, “The F.B.I.: Ashcroft Says US. Will Place Agents in China,” Washington Post, 25 October 2002.

  268 When the Coast Guard revamps . . . that is a new rule set.

  Edward Walsh, “For Coast Guard, Priorities Shifted on September 11: Focus Is on Defense Against Terrorism,” Washington Post, 26 November 2001; and William Booth, “Where Seas Meet Shore, Scenarios for Terrorists: Nation’s Vulnerable Ports Revamp Defenses,” Washington Post, 3 June 2002.

  268 When Washington, D.C., gets sensors . . . scream out “WE ARE HERE!”

  Spencer S. Hsu, “In Wind, a Reply to Terror: Region Gets First Fallout Sensors,” Washington Post, 2 June 2003; Philip Shenon, “Missile Threat Is Bringing Stricter Rules for Airports,” New York Times, 30 March 2003; James Dao, “With Rise in Foreign Aid, Plans for a New Way to Give It,” New York Times, 3 February 2003; Jessica T. Mathews, “September 11, One Year Later: A World of Change,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Policy Brief Special Edition), August 2002; Dana Priest and Dan Eggen, “Bush Aides Consider Domestic Spy Agency: Concerns on FBI’s Performance Spur Debate of Options,” Washington Post, 16 November 2002; and Dana Priest, “CIA Is Expanding Domestic Operations: More Offices, More Agents with FBI,” Washington Post, 23 October 2002.

  272 Within a short time . . . within eight to nine minutes—all at the push of a button.

  For details, see David A. Fulghum, “Huge Promise, Nagging Concerns,” Aviation Week & Space Technology, 18 August 2003.

  274 It turns out this particular go-fast . . . big numbers only that time of year.

  But since al Qaeda-linked terrorists have posed as fishermen in the past, there is no simple way to discount any ship our Navy comes across. For an example, see Marc Lacey, “Kenya Terrorists Posed as Fishermen, Report Says,” New York Times, 6 November 2003.

  THE BIG BANG AS STRATEGY

  281 Of course, there are always plenty . . . nutty views to only the fringe types.

  For some great examples of conspiracy theories, see Josh Tyrangiel, “Did You Hear About . . . The Search for Answers and a Blizzard of Information Have Made WTC Rumors as Ubiquitous as Flags,” Time, 8 October 2001; and Kevin Sack, “Apocalyptic Theology Revitalized by Attacks: Calling 9/11 a Harbinger of the End Times,” New York Times, 23 November 2001.

  281 But then you get the Prime Minister . . . for very cynical purposes.

  Recently retired Mahathir Mohamad, the longtime Prime Minister of Malaysia, made this controversial statement in a speech opening the summit of the fifty-seven-nation Organization of the Islamic Conference in Kuala Lumpur; for details, see Alan Sipress, “Malaysian Calls on Muslims to Resist Jewish Influence,” Washington Post, 17 October 2003.

  283 Nonetheless, conspiracy theories abound . . . staged the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

  For details, see Ian Johnson, “Conspiracy Theories About Sept. 11 Get Hearing in Germany: Distrust of U.S. Fuels Stories About Source of Attacks; Videos, Hot-Selling Books,” Wall Street Journal, 29 September 2003.

  284 It is a task we face throughout the Gap . . . and a deficit of security.

  The magnificent inaugural report from the UN Development Programme entitled Arab Human Development Report 2002 notes that, “Out of seven world regions, the Arab countries had the lowest freedom score in the late 1990s.” The report cites the “three deficits” as defining the Arab world’s lack of development: “the freedom deficit; the women’s empowerment deficit; and the human capabilities/knowledge deficit relative to income”; cited from p. 27.

  285 As a 2002 UN report noted . . . even lower than Sub-Saharan Africa.”

  Arab Human Development Report 2002, p. 29.

  285 Recent opinion polls . . . people wish to emigrate to other countries—half!

  Arab Human Development Report 2002, p. 30; see also Afshin Molavi, “Iranian Youths Seeking to Escape: Bleak Prospects Lead Some Toward Border; Others to Drugs,” Washington Post, 7 September 2003. Not surprisingly, the second Arab Human Development Report (2003) highlighted the Bush Administration’s tightening of visa restrictions as a major hindrance to social progress in the Arab world. Arab students studying in the United States dropped by roughly one-third in 9/11’s aftermath.

  285 The bin Ladens of that region . . . moving away from all that Westoxification.

  For the origins and use of this term, see “The Curse of Westoxification: And the Roots of Discontent,” The Economist, 18 January 2003.

  291 These disenfranchised urban youth . . . recruits for terrorist groups.

  Craig S. Smith, “Saudi Idlers Attract Radicals and Worry Royals,” New York Times, 17 December 2002.

  291 As Paul Wolfowitz has said . . . that this effort once made so much sense.

  Paul Wolfowitz, “Support Our Troops,” Wall Street Journal, 2 September 2002.

  293 Israel’s population agrees to this wall . . . from a youth-bulging Palestine.

  For details on the long-term population-growth issues that complicate any Israel-Palestinian peace agreement, see Guy Chazan, “An Old Heresy Haunts Israel: What If the Palestinians Reject a State of Their Own?” Wall Street Journal, 21 July 2003.

  Chapter 6. THE GLOBAL TRANSACTION STRATEGY

  298 It is merely to serve as globalization’s bodyguard . . . throughout the Gap.

  I first explored this c
oncept in Thomas P. M. Barnett and Henry H. Gaffney, Jr., “Globalization Gets a Bodyguard,” Proceedings of the U.S. Naval Institute, November 2001, pp. 50-53.

  THE ESSENTIAL TRANSACTION

  304 Besides strengthening its ability . . . arms, money, and intellectual property.

  Moises Naim explores the last five flows (drugs, people, arms, money and intellectual property) in his “The Five Wars of Globalization,” Foreign Policy, January-February 2003, pp. 28-37.

  305 Historical data demonstrate . . . reduce your attractiveness to foreign investors.

  For example, see OECD Economic Outlook No. 7, June 2003.

  306 Even South Korea . . . suffers from its proximity to its evil twin.

  James Brooke, “Unwanted Attention for Korea: Worry Over the North Hurts the South’s Economy,” New York Times, 15 April 2003.

  311 The same can be said for Japan . . . sports the world’s largest bond market.

  Phred Dvorak and Todd Zaun, “Japan’s Bond Market: Too Big?” Wall Street Journal, 16 July 2003.

  311 As the recent Core-wide . . . (U.S., EU, Japan) now rise and fall together.

  Joseph Kahn, “The World’s Economies Slide Together into Recession,” New York Times, 25 November 2001.

  311 One day China suffers SARS . . . and a collapse in tourism.

  Renowned expert on the Chinese economy Andy Xie of Morgan Stanley was quoted early in the crisis as saying, “The economy has come to a standstill.” Cited in Keith Bradsher, “Outbreak of Disease Forces Steep Plunge in Chinese Economy,” New York Times, 28 April 2003.

  311 The Chinese leadership . . . despite all those canceled business trips.

  Peter Wonacott and Karby Leggett, “Despite SARS, China’s Economy Bounces Back,” Wall Street Journal, 14 July 2003. Interestingly enough, Morgan Stanley withdrew its forecasts of lower GDP for China for the year once the crisis was seen as abating due to the government’s positive response.

  312 As Krugman argues . . . but it’s not an experiment anyone wants to try.”

  Paul Krugman, “The China Syndrome,” New York Times, 5 September 2003.