Smart Baseball
Page 28
Counsell, Craig, 100
Cramer, Dick, 86–87
Craps (game), 97
Crothers, Tim, 214
Cummings, Candy, 224n
Cybermetrics, 30
Cy Young Awards, 22, 219, 222
Brown and, 215
Glavine and, 217–18
Mussina and, 226
NL 2009, 198–200
NL 2015, 154–55
Sutter and, 220
Davenport, Clay, 134
Davis, Al, 57–58
Davis, Chris, 253
Davis, Khris, 253
Davis, Storm, 24
Davis, Wade, 48
Dawson, Andre, 113–15, 115n
Dead-ball era, 20–21, 60, 118, 124, 125–26, 224
Defense-Independent Pitching Statistics (DIPS), 148–51
Defensive metrics, 163–81, 200–202
Defensive Runs Saved (dRS), 81, 166, 169, 171–72, 181, 257
Defensive shifts, 170, 208
Defensive spectrum, and position player, 186
DePodesta, Paul, 130
Designated Hitter (DH), 99–100
Detroit Tigers, 15–16, 24, 100–101, 201–2, 214, 218
Dewan, John, 165
DiMaggio, Joe, 116–17
DIPS (Defense-Independent Pitching Statistics), 148–51
“Do Clutch Hitters Exist?” (Cramer), 86–87
Dolphin, Andrew, The Book, 87, 90–91, 94, 95
Donaldson, Josh, 135, 190
Double plays, 74, 77, 117, 190, 213
Downing, Brian, 79–80
DRS (defensive Runs Saved), 81, 166, 169, 171–72, 181, 257
Duensing, Brian, 44
Earned Run Average. See ERA
Eastwood, Clint, 232
Eaton, Adam, 274
Eckersley, Dennis, 220
Edison, Thomas, 2
Edmonds, Jim, 168, 173, 173–74
Elias Sports Bureau, 87–88, 162
Ellsbury, Jacoby, 62–63, 79
Eovaldi, Nate, 255–56
Epstein, Eddie, 2
Epstein, Theo, 207–8
Equivalent (now True) Average, 134
ERA (Earned Run Average), 139–47, 151–55
alternative measures, 147–49
of Brown, 218, 218, 220
Cy Young Awards and, 154–55
defensive play and, 146–47
FIP and, 152–53
formula, 141–42
of Kevin, 215, 216, 216–17, 218
relievers and, 144–46
of Rivera, 221, 223, 224, 224
unearned runs and, 141–43
Error rule, and fielding percentage, 73–78
Erstad, Darin, 79
Escobar, Alcides, 128, 136, 136, 190, 190–91
ESPN, 30, 44, 219, 249, 252, 272–73
Estes, Shawn, 25
Exit velocity, 125, 168n, 236, 246, 251–53
“Expected swinging strikes,” 256
Extra-base hits, 123, 129–30, 189, 252
Fangraphs, 136, 164, 166, 171, 190, 192, 195–98, 196n, 201, 252
Fantasy baseball, 1–2
Fast, Mike, 178, 179, 264
Fastballs, 192, 240, 241, 242, 254–55
Fenway Park, 116
Fernandez, Tony, 35
Fielder, Prince, 100–101
Fielder positioning, 147, 181, 258
Fielders, and WAR, 200–202
Fielding (glove), and five-tool talent, 239
Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), 149, 152–53, 227
Fielding percentage, 71–83, 164
error rule, 73–78
play made/not made distinction, 82–83
Range Factor, 78–81
Fielding Runs (FR), 165, 212–13
of Whitaker, 212, 212–13
Fielding statistics, 163–81, 200–202
Fingers, Rollie, 220–21, 222
Finley, Steve, 142
FIP. See Fielding Independent Pitching
Five-man rotations, 21
Five-tool talent, 238–40
Flynn, Doug, 92
Ford, Whitey, 221
Forecasting, 198
Forst, David, 262
Foulke, Keith, 52, 53, 53
Four-man rotations, 21
Framing pitches, 177–81
Franco, John, 222, 224
Francoeur, Jeff, 109
Francona, Terry, 54–55, 208
Free agency, 113, 184, 193, 232–33
Friedman, Andrew, 179
Fulmer, Carson, 243
Gage, Tom, 15
Game-calling, 176, 180, 185–86
Gameday, 246
Game power, 238–39
Game-Winning RBI, 52, 162
Gathright, Joey, 58
Gatlin, Justin, 257
General managers (GMs), 203, 261–64, 268–69
Genetics, 235
Gibson, Bob, 125, 198, 222
Gibson, Josh, 85, 253–54
Gilovich, Thomas, 104
Girardi, Joe, 49
Glavine, Tom, 216, 217, 217–18, 228
“God of the gaps,” 88n
Goldschmidt, Paul, 135, 190, 190
Gonzalez, Fredi, 31
Gonzalez, Juan, 215
Gonzalez, Luis, 100
Good Relievers, 145
Gordon, Dee, 15–16, 16, 62–63
Gordon, Joe, 209, 211, 213
Gossage, Rich “Goose,” 220
Grandal, Yasmani, 179
Green, Andy, 263
Green, Brett, 104
Greinke, Zack, 154, 154–55, 161, 197, 198
Griffey, Ken, Jr., 174–75
Grizzard, Lewis, 45
Grounding into double plays, 37
Gwynn, Tony, 9, 35, 36, 114–15, 115
Haddix, Harvey, 28
Hall of Fame, 15, 208–29
Brown and, 215–19
Hoffman and, 217–18, 221–22
pitchers in, 22–23, 219–28
Whitaker and, 209–15
Hamilton, Billy, 251
Hand-eye coordination, 267–68
Hardball Times, 236
Haren, Dan, 199
Harper, Bryce
BABIP, 150
batting average, 15–16, 16
Batting Runs, 190
NL MVP, 15–16, 111
OBP, 111–12, 190
OPS, 127–28
run expectancy, 68–69
wOBA, 135, 135
WPA, 161
wRC, 137
Harvey, Matt, 241
Hawkins, Andy, 142–43
Hawkins, Jim, 15
Henderson, Rickey, 39, 60–61, 66–68, 67, 68, 118
Hendricks, Kyle, 151–52
Hernandez, Felix, 22, 30
Herr, Tommy, 39–41, 40
Herzog, Whitey, 39
Hidden Game of Baseball, The (Thorn and Palmer), 158–59, 165, 188, 189–91, 195
Higgs, Peter, 267
Hilbert’s problem, 181
Hiller, John, 221, 222
Hitters
batting average, 9–17
determining value, 186–91
exit velocity, 125, 168n, 236, 246, 251–53
five-tool talent, 238–40
On-Base Percentage (OBP), 126–28
On-base Plus Slugging (OPS), 127–32
plate discipline, 120, 240
RBIs (Runs Batted In), 31–41
slugging percentage, 121–24
stolen bases, 57–69
swing mechanics, 236–37
wOBA (weighted On-Base Average), 134–36, 138
wRC+ (weighted Runs Created), 136–38
Hitter myths
clutch hitters, 86–89
“hot hand,” 102–5
lineup construction, 93–96
lineup protection, 90–93
productive outs, 96–102
Hitting for power, 236–37
Hitting in the air, 236–37
Hit tools, 239–40
Hoak,
Don, 28
Hoffman, Trevor, 217–18, 221–23, 222, 224
Hold, 50, 145
Holtzman, Jerome, 45, 46, 51, 52
Home runs, 10, 125, 186–87
BABIP and, 148n
slugging percentage compared with, 123
Hornsby, Rogers, 209n
“Hot hand,” 102–5
Houston Astros, 178, 179, 249, 250, 257, 262, 264, 265
Howard, Ryan, 41
Hoynes, Paul, 19
“Hub Fans Bid Kid Adieu” (Updike), 116
Huckabay, Gary, 111
Hudson, Daniel, 48
Hultzen, Danny, 237–38
Hunter, Catfish, 216, 217, 220
Hurdle, Clint, 161, 261–62
Iannetta, Chris, 180
Individual stats vs. team stats, 36–37
Infield shift, 170, 208
Inherited runners, 46, 48, 144–45
Inherited Runners Scored, 144
Injuries, 237–38, 263–64
Intentional walks, 90–93
Isolated power, 123
Isringhausen, Jason, 53, 53
Jackson, Joseph “Shoeless Joe,” 85
Jacobellis v. Ohio, 241
Jaffe, Jay, 119, 228
James, Bill, 2, 87, 109, 110, 188, 228
Range Factor, 164
Runs Created, 38
Similarity Score, 119–20
Jansen, Kenley, 145
Jeter, Derek, 192
assists, 172
clutch hitting, 89, 89
fielding errors, 77–78
OBP and Outs, 118, 119
Jimenez, Ubaldo, 44
Johnson, Walter, 224, 225
Jones, Andruw, 72n, 164, 173, 173–74
Joss, Addie, 220
Judge, Jonathan, 180
Just a Bit Outside (blog), 41
Kansas City Royals, 48, 80–81, 128, 208, 233
Keeler, Wee Willie, 20
Kelly, R., 104
Kemp, Matt, 66
Kent, Jeff, 214
Kershaw, Clayton, 197, 197–98, 221, 223
BABIP, 152, 154, 154–55
ERA, 154, 154–55, 197, 221
Kettmann, Steve, 44–45
Keuchel, Dallas, 197
Kimbrel, Craig, 27, 145
Kinsler, Ian, 66
Kipnis, Jason, 101, 102
Koch, Billy, 53, 53
Koufax, Sandy, 220–21, 221, 224
Laird, Gerald, 180
Lajoie, Nap, 124
Lanigan, Ernie, 32
Law, Rudy, 60
Leadoff hitters, 34, 34, 95–96, 275
Lee, Thornton, 117
LeMahieu, D. J., 66
Lemon, Bob, 216
Lester, Jon, 68
Leverage, 4–5
Lewis, Michael, Moneyball, 30, 110, 130, 208, 231, 271
Lichtman, Mitchel, 166, 167–68, 170, 171
The Book, 87, 90–91, 94, 95
Lidge, Brad, 49
Life (magazine), 31
Lincecum, Tim, 198–200, 237
Lindor, Francisco, 101–2
Lindsey, George, 188
Linear weights, 37, 130, 136–37, 187–88
Lineup construction, 93–96
pitchers, 95–96
Lineup protection, 90–93
Live-ball era, 123, 155, 198, 225
Lofton, Kenny, 61, 173, 173–74
Los Angeles Dodgers, 31, 71, 74, 154, 161, 179, 216
Lowe, Derek, 265
Lucroy, Jonathan, 179, 180
Luhnow, Jeff, 262
Lyle, Sparky, 222, 222
McCann, Brian, 180
McCracken, Voros, 148, 149–50
McCutchen, Andrew, 92n
McGee, Willie, 36, 40, 40
McGriff, Fred, 35
McGwire, Mark, 126
Machado, Manny, 274
Machine learning, 249
Maddon, Joe, 207–8
Maddux, Greg, 150, 217, 217, 227–28
Maddux, Mike, 143
Major League Baseball collusion, 113
Mann, Steve, 188
Mantle, Mickey, 253
Maranville, Rabbit, 118, 119, 172
Marichal, Juan, 222
Martinez, Pedro, 20, 150, 221
Matchup, pitching, 93
Mattingly, Don, 39, 214
Mays, Willie, 118, 119, 124
Mazeroski, Bill, 172–73, 211, 213
Mechanics, 104–5, 236–37
Mejdal, Sig, 249, 257, 258, 262, 264–65
Melancon, Mark, 161
Messersmith, Andy, 222, 222
Miami Marlins, 15, 241, 257
Middleware, 269
Miller, Andrew, 6, 49, 54–55, 208
Mills, Eldon and Harlan, 158–59
Milwaukee Brewers, 28, 77, 177
Minnesota Twins, 25, 30, 208, 218
MLB Advanced Media (MLBAM), 245–46, 247–48, 250
MLB Official Rule 10.04, 32
MLB Official Rule 10.20, 46–47
Molina, Jose, 179, 180
Molina, Yadier, 177
Molitor, Paul, 40, 118
Moneyball (Lewis), 30, 110, 130, 208, 231, 271
Montreal Expos, 20, 113
Moore, Matt, 193–94
Moore, Mike, 24
Moreno, Omar, 61
More singles defense, 169
Morgan, Joe, 30, 209, 211, 213
Morris, Jack, 218, 218–19, 228
Moses, John, 58
Moss, Brandon, 161
Mozeliak, John, 262–63
Murphy, Dale, 209
Murphy, Daniel, 266
Murray, Calvin, 34, 34
Murray, Eddie, 118, 119–20
Muscle fibers, 235
Mussina, Mike, 226–27, 226–28, 228
Nathan, Alan, 236
Neuroscouting, 267–68
New Yorker, 116
New York Giants, 21–22
New York Mets, 24, 53, 74, 145–46, 176
New York Press, 32
New York Times, 44–45
New York Yankees, 15, 39, 48, 49, 50, 54–55, 100, 116–17, 125, 142, 223–25
Neyer, Rob, 41
Niedenfuer, Tom, 71
No-doubles defense, 169
Oakland A’s, 23, 30, 81, 130, 179, 217, 231, 262, 265
Proven Closers, 52–55, 53
OBP. See On-Base Percentage
O’Day, Darren, 43–44
O’Doul, Lefty, 143n
Official scorers, 74–75
fielding percentage and, 73–78
RBIs and, 32–33
unearned runs and, 141–42, 143
On-Base Percentage (OBP), 14, 109–20, 126–28, 131, 134
common formula, 111–12
correlation to team R/G, 13
missed MVP votes, 113–17
“Outs,” 117–20
on team level, 112–13
On-base Plus Slugging (OPS), 13, 14, 127–32
One-run leads, 47, 54
Ordoñez, Magglio, 15
Org charts, 232–33
Ortiz, David, 88–89
Ortiz, Russ, 24–25, 28
Otis, Amos, 80
Outfielder data, 250
Outs, 129–30
OPB and, 117–20
productive, 96–102
strikeouts, 80, 96, 125–26
Owings, Chris, 136, 136, 190, 190–91
PA. See Plate appearances
Packard, Gene, 28
Paige, Satchel, 224n
Palmeiro, Rafael, 118, 119–20
Palmer, Jim, 221
Palmer, Pete, 109, 115n, 195
The Hidden Game of Baseball, 158–59, 165, 188, 189–91, 195
Paré, Jason, 257
Park effects, 140, 187–88
wRC+ (weighted Runs Created), 136–38
Passan, Jeff, 44, 238
Passed balls, 143, 176
Pavlidis, Harry, 180
Pedroia, Dustin, 236
Pendleton, Terry, 16
Perez, Tony, 228
Perpetua, Andrew, 256
Perranoski, Ron, 221
Perry, Gaylord, 29
Petco Park, 136, 188, 222, 254, 267
Peterson, Jace, 66
Petriello, Mike, 253
Philadelphia Phillies, 41, 49, 50, 80, 121
Physical development of players, 234–35
Pitch counts, 20–21
Pitchers
BABIP, 148–53
bunts, 99–100
command, 240–42
determining value, 191–200
Earned Run Average (ERA), 139–47, 151–55
Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), 149, 152–53, 227
framing pitch, 177–81
in Hall of Fame, 219–28
injuries, 237–38, 263–64
lineup construction, 93–96
mechanics, 237–38, 241
save rule, 43–55
scouting, 240–42
sequencing pitches, 147, 191–92
walk rate, 192, 240, 242
Pitcher data, 246–47, 251–52, 263
spin rate, 243, 251, 254–55
Pitcher’s mound, 60, 125, 198
Pitcher wins, 4, 19–30
on career level, 29–30
Pitch-framing, 177–81
Pitch f/x, 246–47, 249, 270, 272–73
“Pitching and Defense: How Much Control Do Hurlers Have?” (McCracken), 149–50
Pitching command, 240–42
Pitching mechanics, 237–38, 241
Pitching Runs, 195–97
Pitching value metrics, 191–200
Pitch sequencing, 147, 191–92
PitchSmart, 238
Pittsburgh Pirates, 28, 161, 261–62
Plate appearances, 11–12, 111–12, 187, 253
player lineup and, 94–95
Plate discipline, 120, 240
“Platform year,” 51
Platooning, 93
Player development, 264–65
Player mechanics, 104–5, 236–37
Player power, 238–39
Player’s body, 234–35
Player talent, 166–67n, 238–40
Player valuation, 184–202
Player Win Average, 86–87, 158
“Pop times,” 248
Position values, 186
Postseason, and statistical analysis, 184–202
Power, 238–39
Power spikes, 40
Price, David, 27, 197
Price, Jim, 32
Probability. See Win Probability Added
Proctor, Scott, 52
Productive outs, 96–102
Projectable body, 234–35
Proven Closers, 47, 49, 50–55, 145
Puckett, Kirby, 173, 173–74, 210, 214–15
Puig Destroyer, 97
Pujols, Albert, 126
Qualcomm Stadium, 222
Quisenberry, Dan, 221, 222
Rabbit ball, 36, 40, 113, 125
Radar-based system, 247–48, 251–52
Radbourn, Hoss, 20
Raines, Tim, 66–68, 67, 68, 215, 228
Ramirez, Alexei, 190
Ramirez, Jose, 101, 102
Ramirez, Manny, 126
Ramos, Wilson, 112, 127, 136, 136, 190, 190–91
Randomness, 87, 94, 103–4
Range Factor, 78–81, 79–81, 164–65
Raw power, 238–39
RA9 (run average, or runs allowed per 9 innings), 195–96