The War Planners Series

by Andrew Watts

  By 5 p.m., the constant talking had exhausted Natesh. The lead idea was becoming clear. The best Chinese attack would be to overcome America’s strengths by somehow negating their technological advantages. But the group still bickered back and forth on how that could be done.

  Bill was red-faced. He said, “Look, you’ve still got five thousand reasons why the Chinese couldn’t attack us. And each one of them has got a nuclear tip. Uncle Sam’s got submarines ready to fire off their missiles at a moment’s notice, and they can’t possibly have all of those boomers located. There are US Air Force bombers and missile silos that are still playing the same Cold War game: deterrence. It doesn’t matter that China doesn’t want to launch nukes on us. If they try to attack us on land, we will launch nukes on them and obliterate their attacking force. Even our current liberal-ass president would use a nuclear weapon if someone were attacking his house. Excuse my politics.”

  A few people grinned. Most ignored the jab.

  “He’s right,” said Brooke. “Not only that, but American communications and navigation technology is best-in-class. We have more technologically advanced ships, aircraft, and weapons that can do real damage at long range.”

  “It’s called hyperwar,” said one of the military officers. “Speed is the key factor. We can talk about China head-faking with a war in Iran till we’re blue in the face, but the fact of the matter is, if America really wanted to, we could mobilize a global attack that would destroy a majority of Chinese military assets within twenty-four hours.”

  Natesh rubbed his eyes. “But I thought we had discussed this. These technologies rely on a few key activities to take place, correct? So if those activities are removed, there goes the advantage. This—”

  Another of the military officers in the front row said, “Natesh, look…military strategy isn’t like in the business world. We aren’t talking about apps on your smartphone. We’re talking about complex, interwoven technologies like the navigation systems in an F-18 and the GPS smart bombs it carries. We have technologies like the secure data link that connects all of our armed forces so that they can combine each other’s sensor data and look at one enhanced battle picture. There isn’t one silver bullet that could take out all of these technological advantages and eliminate the nuclear threat. I appreciate that we’re all here trying to prevent a war. China’s nothing to scoff at, certainly. But we’ve been talking about different ways to do it all day and I just don’t see how this threat can go beyond just that…a threat.”

  There were nods of agreement in the audience as others backed up the idea of American superiority. Brooke said, “There’s just no way for China to overcome the technology advantage and nuclear response of the United States.”

  Lena hadn’t said a word all day. She stood tall in the back of the room. The light from the windows contrasted against her silhouette. But now her voice was firm.

  “Actually, there is…”

  4

  Tricks, traps, ambushes and other efforts resulting in the surprise of one party by another have been commonplace in Chinese warfare from as far back as we have records.

  —Military historian David A. Graff

  The class sat in stunned silence, waiting for Lena to finish.

  “What do you mean?” asked Bill.

  Lena said, “The Chinese have a way to wipe out America’s satellites. It’s a new and very powerful cyberweapon, developed in America. We don’t know how or when they got it, but our latest intelligence confirms that they are in possession and testing it out.”

  The blood drained from David’s face as he realized why he had been chosen to come to this island. “They have ARES?” he asked, knowing the answer.

  “Yes,” replied Lena.

  Brooke asked, “What’s ARES?”

  David said, “It’s a cyberweapon, like she said. The place I work…we keep an eye out for different types of information technology that might be useful to our intelligence agencies. About a year ago, some students at MIT created a type of worm that could bypass all known security in several key communications channels. It was designed to work on data farms and the vast majority of military and communications satellites. When coupled with other programs that the Defense Department already had, the applications became devastatingly potent. It could potentially take satellites offline, hijack their signals, or even crash them into the earth’s atmosphere. In data-server farms, which much of the cloud-based world is now reliant upon, the theory is that it could cut power long enough for the servers to overheat and become seriously damaged. The MIT students used a lot of the same code that the NSA’s STUXNET used to sabotage Iranian nuclear centrifuges a few years ago. But this worm was several orders of magnitude more advanced than that. What these kids came up with was unreal.”

  “And the Chinese have this?” said Henry.

  Lena nodded. “We believe so.”

  “Awesome. Glad my taxes are being put to good use.” Henry looked up at the ceiling, thinking. “So, let’s say there are between fifteen hundred and two thousand active satellites right now. Most are communications satellites. About a third are military satellites. Those numbers include foreign ones. There are another two to three thousand inactive satellites just floating in orbit. I would think that the most efficient means of F-ing us over would be to program all of the active ones to crash.”

  The classroom was quiet.

  Bill said, “Can they really do that?”

  Brooke said, “Well, it wouldn’t be easy. There are a lot of protections. But ultimately it comes down to two things—do you have the hacking capability and the hardware capability? Russia and China would likely be the only nations that could do something like that. And they’d only be able to do it for a short period of time as far as I know. I’m probably not supposed to admit this, but China actually took control of two of our satellites back in 2008—a Landsat 7 and a Terra AM-1. They had control for twelve minutes. People got fired. But it’s hard to do. It takes an incredible amount of energy to power the dish on the ground. Probably around five to ten million watts.”

  Someone asked, “How much is that?”

  Henry said, “About the output for a really big TV antenna, or a small African nation. It’s a lot of power, and that’s just for one satellite. But we aren’t talking brute force here. This ARES, if I understand correctly, wouldn’t just help them grab a satellite with a high-powered dish on the ground. Am I right?”

  David nodded. “Yes. You are. It’s a game-changer because the worm gets past the security systems and takes it over with a cyberattack. You no longer need brute strength to hack into a satellite. They effectively steal our username and password and then replace it so we can’t regain control. And they aren’t just limited to one satellite at a time. They can scattershot multiple vehicles. If they developed the hardware that the US Air Force and NSA have, they could theoretically take over all of our satellites in under twelve hours.”

  Henry said, “Sweet. So just to be clear, total worst scenario imaginable. That’s all you need to say. Total worst scenario imaginable. Awesome.”

  “There goes the US military’s communications and navigation advantage.”

  “Christ…” said the military officer in the front row. “But wouldn’t people find out? I mean, who monitors this stuff?”

  Brooke said, “Of course we’d find out. There are lots of agencies that monitor it. NORAD. The NSA. Langley. The National Reconnaissance Office in Chantilly, Virginia. The point is, we wouldn’t be able to do anything about it.”

  Natesh said, “But China would probably wait until the right time to do this. What do you military guys call it? When you make sure you hit the enemy with everything you have at the same time?”

  Major Combs said, “Simultaneous time on top.”

  David began to feel dizzy as he saw where all of this was leading.

  Natesh asked, “What would the damage be? What would it look like if China took out all of our satellites?”

 
; Henry said, “It would put a strain on us at first, but the underwater and land-based fiber optic cables handle the vast majority of our data transfers. You might notice it on some international phone calls. Obviously satellite TV and satellite phones would be down. Eventually, though, it would get worse…”

  “What about the loss of GPS? What would that do?” Natesh asked.

  Bill said, “That would hurt a lot. There is just such a dependence on GPS today. Between that and the loss of weather satellites over the oceans, I wouldn’t be surprised to see global air traffic grind to a halt on day one. Ships and aircraft would have to navigate the old-fashioned way, and that means slower and burning more fuel. Say goodbye to drones, too. The US Air Force minted more drone pilots this year than regular pilots. If they were to take out satellites, we wouldn’t be able to use drones nearly as well. Probably not at all over long-range.”

  Brooke said, “I think that would have a much bigger impact on the military’s ability to fight war than most people realize. Almost all of our weapons and weapons-delivery platforms rely on GPS navigation to precisely track and hit their targets. If you took out the entire global satellite network, that would be a huge technological equalizer.”

  Henry said, “I get the military thing. But there is a bigger picture impact here. All those GPS satellites help us synchronize our global clocks. Timing between everything from traffic lights to water treatment to railroad schedules would start getting clogged up. Web searches would be affected and the Internet could drastically slow down. Think about the financial markets. All of those hypertraders moving shares in the blink of an eye? Now people around the world aren’t on the same clock anymore. The information isn’t getting spread around evenly. In this day and age, that’s a huge deal. Now, how many of you are on your mobile phones all day long? If they hit the data farms, those phones are going to be much less useful. If the Chinese can really do this, that weapon is designed to start the apocalypse. If someone crashed all of our satellites and cloud storage, there would be a complete network collapse. There would be a huge stock market crash, followed by a huge food shortage, followed by rampant riots in the street and a total breakdown in society. I swear to God, I am not exaggerating here. How many of you have kids? What would you do for the last loaf of bread if your kid was starving and you didn’t think there was another bread truck coming? Take this weapon seriously. And consider stocking up on bread, water, and Seinfeld DVDs.”

  Bill said, “But hold on here. First, that still doesn’t solve the nuclear deterrence factor.”

  David said, “Actually…to be honest, especially if they disrupted communication enough, I just don’t think we would go through with it.”

  “Go through with what?”

  David said, “A nuclear counterattack.”

  “Even if they cripple our nation?”

  “Well…yes, even then. Because a nuclear reaction wouldn’t be proportional.”

  Bill said, “Well, what about a good old-fashioned conventional military response? I mean, bullets don’t need satellites, right?”

  David said, “Think about it this way—if they shut down all of our satellites like that, our government decision makers would be deaf, dumb, and blind. If they started a military attack, and let’s say they jammed long-range radio communication…I’m not saying that we wouldn’t respond with a counterattack against China if we had a clear picture of what was going on, but it takes a very long time for the US government to gather enough political support to attack a foreign country when we do have clear evidence. If all of a sudden, we just didn’t have any communications with our armed forces—if no one had electricity or phone lines—do you see our politicians having the confidence in the information they were getting to launch a World War Three-style military retaliation on China? I mean, until twenty-four hours ago, I would have told you that you were crazy to suggest any of this. I would have said, ‘Hell no, China won’t attack us.’ Think of all the trade they’d be giving up. It would be economic suicide. No one would believe it. Our technology has enabled hyperwar. But the decision-making process hasn’t gotten any faster. And this isn’t 1983. Our leaders haven’t been conditioned to expect a global nuclear war the way they were back in the eighties. If an attack happened then, we all knew who it was. The Soviets. The Evil Empire. But China isn’t really seen as an enemy today. Their cyberwar against us is mostly covert. Their military buildup is second-page news. People get cheap iPhones and low prices at Walmart, and trade with China is at an all-time high. I just don’t see a quick response—nuclear or conventional—as realistic if the picture isn’t clear. And that’s what this weapon does very well—it clouds the picture.”

  No one said anything for a moment. People absorbed David’s thoughts. Some were no doubt struggling with the question of whether nuclear deterrence was good or bad.

  Brooke cleared her throat and said, “Well, this conversation turned out to be scary. But I still have a question about the premise of this war plan. Let’s suppose that our politicians have neither the information nor the balls to launch a quick response back at an attacking superpower. I will try not to insert my hatred of all liberal politics here. Now, I am more disturbed by the threat of a cyberattack on our satellites than anyone. I mean, I rely on cyberoperations every day to do my job in Ft. Meade. But I fail to see why we still have reason to believe that this is a real threat. Why is a cyberattack on these satellites a game-changer? Can one of you Air Force guys please help me out here? Aren’t there already missiles that can shoot down satellites? And there are other ways to disrupt data centers, right? Why is this ARES such a big deal? What is new about this weapon compared to what they could have already done?”

  David said, “Well, they can now control more satellites in a shorter time.”

  Brooke shook her head and said, “No. That’s not enough of a leap for me. My point is, they could have done the same things through different means. Maybe it would be slower, but… what am I missing here?”

  Most of the classroom looked at Lena, but she didn’t say anything back. Instead, the answer came from Henry.

  He said to Lena, “Ohhhh. I see what’s going on here.”

  Everyone stared, waiting for him to continue.

  Henry said, “The worm has already been uploaded, hasn’t it? There is some sort of countdown in place.”

  Eyes shot back to Lena. She nodded.

  David then said, “That was it, wasn’t it? That’s how you knew they are really going to attack. That’s what this new intelligence was that your dead agent uncovered.”

  “Part of it. Yes,” she said.

  Some of them put it together and some didn’t. Someone whistled. A few swore. Up until now, David had still had his doubts. He hadn’t truly believed that China was going to attack the United States. Sure, there may have been intelligence that indicated they were thinking about it. But in his heart, David had believed that somehow this was all going to go away. Cooler heads would prevail. The Red Cell would just become some crazy what-if scenario planning session. David had harbored these thoughts since Tom had first told him about the project. But the evidence was now falling into place. The reasons for secrecy. The signs of war. Suddenly this all became very real.

  He gazed outside, thinking about the implications of a war of this scale. He could see tropical thunderheads on the horizon, each with a white mist streaming down to the distant ocean. Storms approaching. Fitting.

  Someone said, “What’s the countdown matter for?”

  David sighed and said, “It means that they’re going to follow through. The satellite-killer is a first-strike weapon. And the countdown means they’ve already pulled the trigger. It’s true that they probably have missiles that could do this. They’ve had them for years, actually. But if there is a countdown, then that means that they have a plan in motion. And everything that we’re doing here matters a whole lot more.”

  “Well, when does the countdown stop?” Henry asked.

 
Everyone in the room locked their eyes on Lena. She looked as if she wasn’t sure whether she should answer.

  Finally, she said, “To be honest, we don’t know.”

  One of the people a row down from David asked, “How do they know there is a countdown but not know when the program will activate?”

  For a second, David thought he saw Bill look uneasy, like he wanted to say something important. But then Brooke said, “With worms, you can program them to have infinite countdowns. So this program can count down, look for a signal from an outside source, and then reset or execute depending on what inputs it receives. Imagine that this worm is an alarm clock that looks for a signal each day at seven a.m. If it receives the signal it is looking for, it will start beeping. If not, it will reset for another period of time. That is probably what is going on here. It happens a lot in cyberwarfare. We can detect when something is active, but not know exactly when it will execute.”

  David thought he saw Lena glance at Bill. Then she said, “Brooke is exactly correct. In this case, the countdown keeps resetting after not receiving an activation signal. That is my understanding. So we know it is there, waiting to be activated, but we don’t know when it will occur. Given the periodicity of the resets, our best estimate is in twelve to eighteen months.”

  David woke up to the green-glowing beep of his watch alarm. He had collapsed on his bed at 5:30 p.m., intending just to shut his eyes for thirty minutes. But the fatigue of his jet lag and the all-day sessions had drained him. While just about everyone else had filed into the cafeteria as soon as the afternoon team meetings ended, David took a nap. It was now 7:15 p.m. and David would have to hightail it to make it to dinner before the cafeteria closed.

  He threw on a tee shirt, khaki shorts, and a pair of Reebok sneakers and then rushed over to the cafeteria. He walked into the meal hall to the clatter of metal dishware being cleaned in the back. Bill was the lone diner. David walked through the buffet line, scooping heaping piles of mashed potatoes, green beans, and what looked like pot roast onto his plate. He grabbed a few bottles of water and a banana and walked over to the table where the other man sat.