Without warning

by John Birmingham

  ‘We still don’t know where those other subs of theirs are hiding,’ said Ritchie.

  ‘Not our problem,’ replied Franks. ‘Not anymore. We’re out of the world-policing business. Let the fucking French or the Brits find them. They have more to lose.’

  The small pod of military brass turned into a large briefing room that had been prepared for their arrival. General Franks, the new Acting Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, waved everyone back to their seats as the assembled officers came to attention. He and Ritchie took their places at the head of the large conference table. There was no ceremony. Franks ordered the first briefer to the podium with another wave of his hand.

  Colonel Maccomb nodded and smiled thinly at Ritchie as he moved around the table. The two men had seen a lot more of each other than their families in the last month. Ritchie had come to trust the intelligence man’s judgement implicitly. He seemed able to read Jed Culver like an open book, for instance, and he’d warned of a possible Israeli strike days before it happened – which admittedly wasn’t all that impressive, because the same predictions had been made many times in the press. But Maccomb had worked up a scenario that predicted the attack almost exactly as it transpired. Unfortunately, the report had not made it to Ritchie’s desk before Asher Warat arrived in his office. The admiral made certain that the much-chastened commander of the 500th Military Intelligence Brigade understood he was never again to sit on any of Maccomb’s reports if the colonel thought they should go up the line.

  ‘Good morning, ladies and gentlemen,’ Maccomb began. ‘I have a number of points from each of the theatre commands to cover quickly before we discuss any particular issue in depth. Firstly, CENTCOM. Our latest best estimate puts half the population of the area dead, and it is likely that seventy-five per cent of the remainder are going to die within six months to a year.’

  There was no evident reaction to the statement. Everyone had become inured to the horror story of the Middle East what felt like a long time ago.

  ‘Major combat operations have ceased entirely, both between our forces, which have now left the region, and our former combatants, and between Israel and her former combatants. Israel remains under martial law, but we expect the state of emergency to be lifted within the next forty-eight hours as decontamination procedures are progressed far enough to allow some of the population to return to work.’

  Maccomb thumbed a control stick and powered up a large flat-panel display on the wall behind him. A very familiar map of the Middle East appeared, with each of the atomic strikes clearly marked. Shaded areas of fallout stretched around the sites.

  ‘A combined British, French, Russian and Chinese task force has arrived in Saudi Arabia to replace our own withdrawn forces,’ the intelligence man continued. ‘Smaller deployments have been made to various Gulf states to secure the surviving oil infrastructure. The Russian Federation’s missile forces targeting Israel remain on the highest state of alert. British and French submarines also remain on station in the eastern Mediterranean, as a continued deterrent against further strikes by Tel Aviv. The future status of the French nuclear submarine Le Triomphant remains uncertain, however, dependent of the outcome of the struggle within France.’

  Ritchie had some trouble containing a snort of surprise at Colonel Maccomb’s talent for understatement. The ‘struggle’ he referred to had degenerated from incipient anarchy into civil war and from there into a confused and savage blood-swarm. Tracking the movements of the country’s nuclear submarines was consuming almost as much attention from the surviving great powers as speculating on the disposition of those assets should the French Government finally succumb to the intifada.

  ‘The situation within EUCOM is fluid,’ said Maccomb, continuing with his penchant for understatement. ‘The British Government is still enforcing its maritime exclusion zone and has secretly begun work to seal its end of the Channel Tunnel.’

  That was a surprise to Ritchie. Since Franks had returned from Qatar and replaced him as Acting Chairman, he was no longer fully briefed on developments in Europe. Last he’d seen, Tony Blair was still denying that the Brits intended to do any such thing.

  ‘The state of emergency remains in place throughout Britain, but we are informed that it will be lifted in Northern Ireland as of 0600 hours tomorrow. Our best information to hand is that the Blair Government will ignore the ultimatum from the European Union to release all of the so-called emergency detainees and is in fact planning to deport significant numbers of them.’

  A murmur rippled around the table at this last revelation from Maccomb.

  ‘With permission, General?’ Ritchie asked Franks.

  The chairman nodded. ‘Make it quick, Jim.’

  ‘Do you have anything more precise than just “significant numbers”, Colonel?’ asked Ritchie. ‘Are they talking about flying out a couple of crazy mullahs or are we looking at mass deportations?’ The admiral’s daughter was in England, having escaped the Disappearance by a matter of hours. She was in no immediate danger, but the news coming out of the UK was growing darker every day.

  ‘My information is that the forced relocations will probably take place on a greater rather than lesser scale, Admiral,’ Maccomb replied. ‘Much greater. They will probably involve a significant drain on the security forces. It will be a controversial policy’

  Sitting next to Ritchie, General Franks grunted and leaned forward. ‘Ha. You know how to sugar-coat a shit sandwich, don’t you, Colonel? It’ll be a bloodbath. They’re talking about deporting hundreds of thousands of second- and third-generation citizens. It’s a pogrom, pure and simple. But,’ he sighed, ‘it’s only our problem if it affects us operationally. What’s your latest on the money Blair promised us?’

  Colonel Maccomb coughed uncomfortably, and sipped from a glass of water by the podium before answering. ‘General, the best information I have is that the special appropriations bill will pass with the help of the Conservatives. There are a hundred and thirty-four members of Blair’s Labour Government who have publicly confirmed they will vote against it, but the Conservative Party leader has pledged his support so it will go through.’

  ‘And this little ethnic cleansing program of theirs, what’s your reading of that?’ Franks probed further. ‘Is it likely to bring down the government? And if so, can we expect the same level of support from the British in future?’

  Ritchie thought Maccomb looked even more uncomfortable at being asked to read the storm clouds of British politics, but it was a fair question. For the moment, at least, most of the day-today cost of running the US military was being met by alliance partners such as Britain and Japan. NATO was split on the issue, with countries like Poland stumping up support in cash and kind, while others, like France, were so busy falling apart they were worse than useless, as Ritchie knew all too well.

  ‘The policy is supported by a clear majority of the British electorate,’ said Maccomb. ‘But the significant minority who oppose it can be expected to do so by all the means at their disposal. There will be bloodshed, yes. From our point of view, however, both the government and the opposition are committed to the supplementary appropriations process. So any change in government will not affect that. However, whether the UK can actually afford to maintain such outlays, even in the short term, is another matter entirely. And not one I am really qualified to discuss.’

  Franks smiled grimly. ‘Nice buck pass, Colonel. Damn, I never thought I’d see out my days as a gun for hire. Okay. We’ll put that on the back burner. Continue.’

  The intelligence officer returned to his notes and brought up a slide show of images culled from European news media.

  ‘Fighting in France has intensified over the last two weeks. Elements of the state are in open conflict with each other, while large-scale street clashes that began as food and race riots have developed into open, disorganised tribal warfare – largely based on ethnic lines, but exacerbated by the involvement of some criminal syndicates in Marseilles and Lyons,
and by the arrival of outside agitators from throughout the EU. Most official border crossing points have been closed, but that means nothing. France’s borders aren’t simply porous. They largely do not exist, and haven’t for years. Additionally, we have very strong indications of government-level assistance for some of this cross-border movement, especially of skinhead gangs from the eastern regions of Germany into the main metropolitan areas of France. The numbers involved are not trivial, either. We tracked three train-loads of neo-Nazis from Berlin and Dresden all the way to Paris. In total, they numbered more than four thousand strong.’

  ‘Good Lord,’ muttered Ritchie. ‘You mentioned these were government-sanctioned movements. Which government?’

  Maccomb pressed his lips together as though chewing over something unpleasant. ‘It is inaccurate to speak of a unitary state authority in France right now,’ he began, carefully. ‘But one bureau of their Direction centrale des renseignements generaux, the General Information Service, has been in close and constant contact with the BND, the German Government’s foreign intelligence service, and the Russian FSB, which maintains extensive networks in the former East German provinces. It’s significant because the GIS, as we call it, is the intelligence arm of the French police, which answers directly to the Interior Minister, Mr Nicolas Sarkozy. And, of course, his Emergency Committee has assumed, or some would say usurped, responsibility for state security from the Elysйe Palace since President Chirac was wounded in the suicide bombing of March 25.’

  Ritchie, who had privileged access to information about the situation in France that nobody in the room other than Franks enjoyed, still found Maccomb’s explanation difficult to follow. ‘I don’t see how this all hangs together, Colonel,’ he objected. ‘What is your point?’

  Maccomb shrugged before bringing up video footage copied from a French news service. Up on the wall-mounted screen, a hugely violent confrontation was playing out between thousands of rioters in Clichy-sous-Bois, a poor commune in the east of Paris. Hundreds of black-clad French riot police stood by as a wave of shaven-headed thugs appeared from a maze of side streets in a coordinated assault on a mass of dark-skinned rioters. Armed with clubs and even-edged weapons, they cut a swathe through their densely packed, inferior-armed opponents.

  ‘The death toll from that one encounter was over two hundred,’ said Maccomb. ‘It didn’t rate as a news story for more than a day, because there were bigger and more violent riots elsewhere in the city, and then the following day the first of the radioactive plumes from reactor meltdowns in CONUS crossed the French coast. The CRS – the French riot police – not only did not intervene, but they actually facilitated the attack and later the safe withdrawal of the neo-Nazi street fighters.’

  The colonel then brought up footage of two police officers calmly chatting with a small number of fascist organisers, apparently giving them directions, while a murderous brawl took place a stone’s throw away. The skinheads appeared to take a good deal of advice from the officers before running off to marshal their own forces.

  ‘At no point in any of the clashes of the past weeks have the CRS decisively intervened to stop any major incidents of violence, except on those occasions where ultranationalist forces looked to be in trouble. I have a separate briefing note on this subject, and will cover it at length in due course, but for now I think it is reasonable to categorise the situation in France as a race war within the general population, and a civil war between some elements of the state security apparatus.’

  Franks and Ritchie exchanged a quick, wordless glance. They had their own angle on the French troubles but it was not something they could discuss, even in this forum.

  ‘Thank you, Colonel,’ said Franks. ‘It’s fascinating, even a little satisfying, but we need to move on. You have a quick run-down on the Russian situation?’

  Maccomb nodded. ‘Russian military forces either remain at the highest level of alert or, in cases such as Georgia and Chechnya, have been deployed on active duty. None of the deployments raise any threat to American forces or interests, however, and the Russian Defence Ministry has been assiduous in keeping us informed of any developments that might impact upon our interests. They are treading very carefully around us, and trying hard not to generate too much friction along the Chinese border…’ He glanced up at Ritchie before continuing. ‘Which brings us to the Pacific Command.’

  There was a noticeable shifting of postures around the table. PACOM was home. At least half of the officers in the conference belonged to Admiral Ritchie’s theatre command.

  ‘There are two serious flashpoints within PACOM,’ Maccomb went on. ‘I would have said three until recently, but the Korean peninsula is one of the few areas where tensions seems to have decreased in the last month, most likely due to the volume of aid shipments heading north from Seoul. For now, the bribes are working. For now, as well, there have been no calls from the north for the withdrawal of US forces. However, there will be an emergency session of the National Assembly in two days, to discuss an urgency motion requiring the withdrawal of all foreign forces from the Republic’

  Ritchie knew it was coming, but most people in the room did not. And, as much as a tightly controlled group of professional officers could descend instantly into uproar, they did – which is to say, an air force general swore under his breath and a Marine Corps colonel banged his water down a little too loudly.

  ‘Get over it, people,’ barked Franks. ‘If they don’t want us, we can’t stay. They’re already picking up our drinks tab and they can’t afford it – their economy has imploded. Vote or no vote, we’d be leaving. Go on, Colonel. Give us some bad news for a change.’

  Maccomb essayed a slight twitch of the mouth that may have been the ghost of a grin. ‘India and Pakistan,’ he said. ‘The probability that one or the other will attempt a pre-emptive strike is approaching certainty. Their conventional forces have already clashed seriously on three occasions in the last month, and all cooperation with Islamabad over the Afghan situation has effectively ceased. Both sides have carried out proxy terror attacks approaching mass-casualty levels, and satellite cover indicates that each country has stepped up the readiness of its nuclear forces.’

  ‘Jesus wept, did they learn nothing?’ exclaimed the same Marine Corps officer.

  ‘You can skip the details of any likely exchange, Colonel,’ said Franks. ‘We know what one of these wars looks like now, and how it affects the rest of the globe. Admiral Ritchie, what’s our Uplift status for the subcontinental region?’

  Ritchie didn’t need to consult his notes or an aide. He’d been living Operation Uplift for nearly three weeks. ‘Ninety per cent complete, General,’ he answered. ‘TRANSCOM has moved eighty-three thousand US citizens from India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh to reception facilities in Australia and New Zealand. We’re still shifting up to a thousand a week, but the flow has really tapered off.’

  ‘Anybody who’s not out soon is going to get turned into an x-ray,’ said Franks. ‘We’ve done what we can. I don’t want our people there in large numbers when one of those fools presses the button. I think we might put a deadline of this Friday local time for Uplift. After that, anyone dumb enough to hang around will be on their own. That timing sound right to you, Maccomb?’

  ‘It’s tight,’ replied the briefer. ‘The Indians have begun to prepare their launch sites. A lot of embassies are already shutting up and getting out. The Brits and Aussies have upgraded their travel advisories to the highest level, warning of immediate interstate conflict.’

  ‘Okay. Wednesday – midnight. That’s the end of it for us. Go on.’

  ‘China.’ Maccomb paused briefly as if that was all that was needed on the subject. ‘While the People’s Republic does not suffer from some of the ethnic division present in France, on our reading of the current situation its future is just as bleak. The economy hasn’t imploded, it just ceased to be. There were already imbalances and rigidities building up before 14 March. Thousands o
f state-run enterprises were being propped up just to keep the rural poor fed and housed. Now, hundreds of millions of people have no income, and in the cities, no means of supporting even a subsistence level of existence. China was a net food importer when the Disappearance hit. It cannot feed itself. The PLA, which had begun to deploy some force projection assets around the Taiwan Strait, is now fully engaged within the country’s borders. The government has imposed a media blackout and expelled all but a handful of foreign journalists, and their movements are tightly controlled. Most of our in-country assets were managed from CONUS and are of little use now. But we do have some access to British and Russian intel, and they are convinced that a schism has opened both between the army and the Communist Party, as well as within those institutions. At 0230 hours this morning, the FSB’s Beijing station was reporting that major combat had broken out within the city between elements of the People’s Armed Police and at least two divisions of Army Group 6, including armoured and artillery units. Admiral Ritchie will have more on this, in a few minutes.’