Flash Point

by Kenneth Andrus

  “None of the Philippine garrisons in the Spratlys will present the PLA much of a challenge except the one on Pagasa.”

  “Pagasa is an obvious source of irritation. It’s where the Philippine Navy sortied for their attack. It’s strategically situated to threaten the Chinese outposts on Mischief, Subi, and Johnson Reefs. I’m sure the Chinese would like nothing better than to eliminate it.”

  Payne frowned. “Any others?”

  “Nanshan Island, just north of Mischief Reef. It’s claimed by Manila, but not occupied. Major, would you please point it out?”

  Payne glanced at the postage-stamp-sized island before dismissing its significance. “I’d say we’ve missed our chance to cool this affair off.”

  “Manila hasn’t done us any favors,” Lawson affirmed. “They’ve just provided Beijing a legitimate opening for a counter strike.”

  “We can’t permit that.”

  “I agree, Mr. Secretary.”

  “Major, can we have the previous slide showing the disposition of our forces? Run lines from the PLAN base on Hainan Island and the Lincoln to a point just west of Pagasa Atoll.”

  “What am I looking for?”

  “The Strike Group is transiting the Strait of Malacca. They should pass Singapore today.”

  The CNO referred to the two intersecting lines on the screen. “The distance the Lincoln will have to make up to be in a favorable position relative to the Chinese is approximately two-hundred fifty miles. It’s 1915 hours on Hainan. The surveillance photos were taken at 1600. Our next satellite pass in daylight will be at 0720. Their flotilla should be underway at first light. I fully expect to be looking at an empty anchorage. If my assumptions are correct, we have eleven hours.”

  Lawson closed his briefing book. “We need to issue an immediate warning order to PacFleet.”

  Payne turned to the CNO. “Admiral, please see to it. Bob, would you join me in my office?

  Payne and Larson were seated in Payne’s oak-paneled office when the phone on his desk rang.

  “Sheldon?”

  “Good morning, Justin. I have Bob with me. We were expecting your call. How’s it going in your neck of the woods?”

  “The boss was in rare form this morning.”

  “I can imagine. What’s up?”

  “The President wants to meet this afternoon. I’ll have to get back with you on the exact time. Will you be ready?”

  “Already working it,” Payne said.

  “See you this afternoon.”

  Payne replaced the receiver. “Bob weren’t y’all planning to split off a destroyer from the Lincoln group to conduct a Freedom of Navigation op through the Taiwan Strait? The timing isn’t good.”

  “I agree, we shouldn’t be stirring that particular pot right now. I’ll make sure it’s canceled. No sense in provoking the Chinese.”

  “I’d say with the way things are developing, we’ll have ample opportunity to do that next week.”

  * * *

  UNITED STATES NAVAL BASE

  YOKOSUKA, JAPAN

  23:47

  International crises are not considerate of the time. It was almost midnight on Sunday when the commander of the Seventh Fleet was startled out of a sound sleep by the high-pitched ringing of his bedside phone.

  He fumbled for the receiver of his secure line, managing to stop the noise. “Triebull.”

  “Admiral, this is Lieutenant Wallin, the Watch Officer. We have an ‘Immediate-Eyes Only’ message from PacFleet.”

  There was no point in asking questions. He would learn soon enough what prompted the message. “Thank you, Lieutenant. I’ll be right in.”

  Triebull threw on his khakis wondering what would trigger a message at this hour. He snatched his car keys off their hook in the kitchen and drove down the short winding road to his flagship, the USS Blue Ridge. He parked his sedan by the prow and stepped into a cold drizzle.

  The quarterdeck was backlit with diffused light. There was no sign of activity, the only sound, the patter of rain on the accommodation ladder. Best to make a little noise. He grabbed the railing and clomped his way up the steps of the access-tower. The noise had its desired effect. He returned the salute of the startled Officer of the Deck and disappeared through the watertight door leading to his office.

  The quarterdeck watch rang out the three-paired bells of a Vice-Admiral. “Seventh Fleet, arriving.”

  Wallin heard the bells and popped out of the flag mess just in time to intercept Triebull. He handed him a message folder. “Admiral, I’ve taken the liberty to call the Chief of Staff and the Three. They’re on their way.”

  “Good thinking.”

  Triebull settled behind his desk and scanned the message for content, then re-read it. He pulled out a pen and began jotting notes in the margins formulating his response. As the supported commander, the responsibility fell on him to analyze the tactical situation and submit his recommendations back to the Pacific Fleet in the format of the Commander’s Estimate.

  A metallic knock announced the arrival of his two senior staff officers.

  “Good morning, gents. It appears Washington has given us something to jumpstart our week. Have a seat and take a look at our tasker.”

  Triebull looked up a moment later. “Going over the probable scenarios, the only force we have available to interdict the Chinese is the Lincoln Strike Group. Judging the relative distance, they’ll have to transit compared to the Chinese flotilla, it’s going to be tight getting her in position to offer a credible deterrent.

  “Our variable is the intentions of the Chinese commander. We won’t know those until he’s well underway. Bearing in mind the constraints outlined by Washington, we’ll provide Admiral Gireaux as much leeway as we can. That said, let’s take a look at the chart and calculate some timelines.”

  Chapter 13

  THE WHITE HOUSE

  15:00 MONDAY 24 FEBRUARY

  Stuart tapped his fingers on the Beijing embassy’s latest report. The communication concluded with the observation that the Chinese government spokesmen remained silent. The notable exception was a curt statement issued by a low-level Foreign Ministry official: “Beijing will take measures necessary to counter any threat to its national sovereignty.” Not a good sign.

  Damn, Manila has miscalculated––or have they? What could they ...?

  Dan Lantis popped his head in the door. “Excuse me, Mr. President. The staff’s assembled.”

  Stuart looked up just long enough to reply. “Thank you, Dan. I’ll be there in a moment.”

  He turned his attention to his yellow legal pad and jotted down a final question. Stuart considered the conflicting agendas of the PLA and the civilian authorities in Beijing. These two antagonists were drawing his administration into the morass they were creating. Frowning, he followed Lantis into the cabinet room.

  “Good afternoon, gentlemen,” he said. “You’ve all been working this problem with your staffs. It’s time to pull it all together. Sheldon?”

  “All our indicators point to an imminent deployment of elements of the Chinese South Seas Fleet,” Payne responded. “Five combatants, two amphibious ships, and supporting auxiliaries. Our analysts are basing their probability estimates on the amphibious ships. They’ve embarked their full complement of troops, which leads us to believe they plan to occupy one or more islands.”

  Stuart turned to Lawson. “Any idea where they’re headed?”

  “There are several possible scenarios each framed by the degree of risk they’re willing to assume. Beijing may wish to confine their response to executing a limited retaliatory strike to extract a price for the destruction of their patrol boats. On the other hand, their intent may be to use the AFP’s actions to justify a larger action.”

  “Sheldon?”

  “The scenario that would cause the least amount of diplomatic fallout would be for the Chinese to simply chase the Philippine Navy out of the area, reinforce their existing facilities, and increase their gray-zone op
s to further destabilize the region. This would effectively put Manila on notice that no further military action on their part would be tolerated. Furthermore, it would serve to consolidate their position in the Spratlys.”

  “Mr. President, I have something.”

  Jarred by the sound of Valardi’s voice, Stuart clenched his jaw. He was tired, and something in the pitch annoyed him. “What?”

  “We have indications from Beijing’s latest diplomatic rhetoric that this is exactly what they’re contemplating.”

  “This?”

  “Sheldon’s three points.”

  “Continue.”

  “We notified their ambassador that we would not look favorably upon any further escalation of military action by either party. This statement was prefaced by our expectation that the two principles should resolve this crisis bilaterally. Beijing is aware of our broader interests in the region, but may have concluded they can continue to advance their own agenda without provoking us.”

  Stuart bit his lower lip. Sheldon might be onto something. “I’d like to explore this line of reasoning. Justin, what’s your cut?”

  “We’ve been looking for means to pressure Manila.”

  “I’d look to our basing and logistics negotiations,” Brown said.

  “You’re suggesting we link the two?” Payne asked.

  “We don’t want to leave the Filipinos hanging out on a limb,” Stuart answered. “That said, our response must be tailored to not encourage Manila to come running to us every time they get in over their heads.”

  “Like they’ve just done,” Payne observed.

  “I would expect reciprocity,” Brown added.

  Stuart wrote down LEVERAGE in bold letters, underlining the word twice. “Bob, I’d like to hear the remainder of your threat assessment.”

  “Mr. President, there are two islands the Chinese might be interested in. The first is Pagasa, site of the largest Philippine base in the Spratlys. The second is an island claimed by Manila some sixty miles north of their installations on Mischief Reef with a rudimentary airstrip.”

  Payne leaned forward. “Bob, are you referring to that postage stamp you pointed out in the Tank? Nanshan Island, wasn’t it?”

  “Yes. And if Beijing were to occupy that postage stamp, they could neutralize the garrison and airfield on Pagasa.”

  “It’s barely above sea level for God’s sake,” Payne said.

  “True enough, but the line of approach for the Chinese flotilla to both of these potential targets from Hainan Island is the same. We won’t be able to ascertain their intentions until they are almost on top of Pagasa. If they choose to target the Philippine garrison, the PLA would not have sufficient force to occupy or reinforce any other islands.”

  Stuart noted Valardi’s mouth open and pre-empted him. “Bob, could you venture a guess on the probabilities?”

  “If I were the Chinese, I’d be tempted to take out Pagasa. In the final analysis, though, I’d say the risks are too great.”

  “Caveats?”

  “I’d add one,” Payne said. “If the PLA is provoked further. Having said that, I believe the Chinese will choose to strengthen their current outposts.”

  “I concur,” Gilmore added, “but we have another variable to consider.”

  Stuart picked up his pen and wrote down ‘variable.’ “And what would that be?”

  “The NRO passed us an intercept between AFP Naval Headquarters in Cavite and the commander of the Philippine flotilla. The message indicates they may be considering action against another Chinese installation.”

  “What the hell!” Payne cried. “Why didn’t I know about this? Do we have time to stop them?”

  Gilmore held up his hands in supplication. “I just heard about this as I walked out the door. I’ve asked for any intercepts that can clarify the situation.”

  Stuart ignored them and turned to the one man he could count on to keep his head. “Bob, we’ve got to consider inserting the Lincoln Strike Group between these folks to keep the peace.”

  “Yes, sir.”

  “Richard, you know where you fit?”

  “I’ll draft a confidential note and deliver it to the Philippine embassy. I’ll word it in such a way as to convey our ‘grave concern’ about escalating the crisis and include implicit language that we have knowledge of the Cavite communications. I––”

  A Navy captain entered the room, approached Lawson, and handed him a folder.

  All eyes were now on Lawson. His grim expression conveyed the contents.

  “Bob?”

  “More trouble, sir. The Philippine navy has reportedly taken action against a small Chinese outpost on Scarborough Shoal.”

  “Scarborough Shoal?”

  “It’s some one-hundred and forty miles west of Luzon. They’ve destroyed another maritime marker, evicted the Chinese, and raised the Philippine flag.”

  “Does the report mention casualties?”

  “No, sir.”

  “When did it occur?”

  Lawson touched his thumb to his fingers counting off the time zones. “Two hours ago, our time.”

  “What else?”

  “We can expect the PLAN flotilla to be underway within the next three hours.”

  Stuart digested the unwelcome news. “Well, gentlemen, it appears we’ve been overtaken by events. Can Lincoln get there in time?”

  “It’s going to be close,” Lawson replied. “We sent the alert message to PacFleet just after noon concurring with Seventh Fleet’s recommendations. We’ve received the confirmatory message. With your approval, sir, we’ll send the execute message.”

  “Timelines?”

  “Lincoln should be completing her transit of the Strait of Malacca as we speak. The escorts topped off their bunkers before entering the Strait, so fuel will not be an issue. Based on our estimate of the PLAN’s probable course, the Strike Group will be in position within twenty-eight hours. The Chinese have less than half the distance to travel, but we have a four-hour jump.”

  “How soon can the Chinese be there?” Brown asked.

  “We believe their flotilla will be making, at best, eighteen knots. That will place them near Pagasa in twenty hours. If the combatants break off and proceed ahead of the slower vessels, they could be in position in as little as fifteen.”

  Stuart shook his head. “That’s cutting it close.”

  “We’ve diverted an Air Force E-3C and the ready P-8 from Kadena is airborne. Even if Lincoln is several hundred miles away, she can make her presence known in a number of ways that may be enough to unsettle the Chinese.”

  Stuart spun his wedding band with his thumb. “Get them moving. Sheldon will fill you in on anything you need to know.”

  Lawson gathered his notes and stood to leave. “Yes, sir.”

  “Richard, what’s your take?”

  Valardi appeared immersed in his own thoughts and didn’t respond.

  “Richard?”

  “Ah, sorry, sir. What did you say?”

  “I asked for your opinion.”

  “The Pentagon’s operating premise is the mere presence of the Lincoln Strike Group will be enough to dissuade the Chinese from taking any precipitous action. I’d like to know the specifics of the Rules of Engagement.”

  “Sheldon?”

  “Our tasking order to PacFleet states that under no circumstances shall our forces engage the Chinese. Furthermore, we have provided the Strike Group commander guidance that if his force is faced with a potentially hostile act, he is to disengage.”

  “It’s imperative we convey to Beijing our intent is to prevent the crisis from escalating,” Brown said.

  “Understood.”

  “Richard, draft a communiqué that addresses our desire to ensure the safety of the international sea lanes. Beijing understands this issue holds significant importance. It shouldn’t come as a surprise.”

  “We may be able to defuse future confrontations in the Spratlys if we play to the Chinese sense tha
t they are the aggrieved party.”

  “I hardly get the feeling China is the aggrieved party,” Gilmore said.

  Stuart had heard enough and cut off any further discussion. “Sheldon, what can you tell me about Scarborough Reef?”

  “The Chinese occupied the atoll under the guise of establishing an outpost for their fishing fleet. It’s an approach similar to what they used late last year on Mischief Reef. Satellite imagery has identified a radio transmission tower and several rudimentary structures. We’ve also confirmed Manila’s contention that an alleged ‘survey ship’ the Chinese Foreign Ministry claims is supporting their fisheries department is the Xing Fenshan, an intelligence vessel.”

  “Well, that shouldn’t come as a surprise to any of us. Sheldon, have Admiral Cortez provide a Position Statement. Coordinate with Richard to ensure there is no ambiguity.”

  “I can dispatch my Assistant Secretary, Adrian Clarke, to conduct personal consultations with Manila and Beijing. He can facilitate negotiations if both parties agree.”

  “Send him. Make sure he understands I want our response to be firm, but evenhanded. I do not want any of our actions providing an advantage to Xiao and the more extreme elements within the PLA.”

  Valardi cleared his throat. “Addressing the specifics of our relationship with Beijing beyond the present difficulties with Manila, we must focus on keeping open the lines of communication and pursuing confidence-building measures.”

  “Can we accomplish those without undercutting Montalvo?” Stuart asked.

  “Possibly.”

  Brown considered the various options to cover Gilmore’s clandestine operation on Blue Horizon. “Richard, we have a plan?”

  “We’re working the details.”

  Stuart closed his notebook. “Keep it at that. We’ll know soon enough how this plays out.”