The Room Where It Happened

by John Bolton;

  4 Ibid.; and John Davison and Daphne Psaledakis, “Washington blacklists Iran-backed Iraqi militia leaders over protests,” December 6, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-usa-iraq-sanctions/washington-blacklists-iran-backed-iraqi-militia-leaders-over-protests-idUSKBN1YA206.

  5 See “Statement from the President on the Designation Of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp as a Foreign Terrorist Organization,” April 8, 2019, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/statement-president-designation-islamic-revolutionary-guard-corps-foreign-terrorist-organization/.

  6 “Clientitis” and other institutional problems of State’s bureaucracy are discussed in Boston, Surrender Is Not an Option, on pp. 447–455.

  7 See, e.g., Florence Tan, Reuters, “Iran keeps oil prices in Asia at wide discounts against Saudi oil in January,” December 10, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-iran-prices/iran-keeps-crude-prices-in-asia-at-wide-discounts-against-saudi-oil-in-january-idUSKBN1OA056 and Irina Slav, “Iran is desperately trying to save its oil share ahead of US sanctions,” August 15, 2018, https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-us-oil-sanctions-drive-barrel-discounts-before-november-2018-8.

  8 See Lesley Wroughton et al., “US to end all waivers on imports of Iranian oil, crude price jumps,” https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-iran-oil/us-to-end-all-waivers-on-imports-of-iranian-oil-crude-price-jumps-idUSKCN1RX0R1.

  9 See “Zarif: B-Team targeting Iranian people with economic terrorism,” https://en.mehrnews.com/news/144632/Zarif-B-Team-targeting-Iranian-people-with-economic-terrorism.

  10 See, e.g., Ariane Tabatabai, “Iran’s cooperation with the Taliban could affect talks on U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan,” August 9, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/08/09/irans-cooperation-with-taliban-could-affect-talks-us-withdrawal-afghanistan/; and Reuters, “In new claim, Pompeo says Iran has been working with Taliban to undermine Afghan peace effort,” January 7, 2020, https://nationalpost.com/news/world/in-new-claim-pompeo-says-iran-has-been-working-with-the-taliban-to-undermine-afghan-peace-efforts.

  11 See “Statement from the National Security Advisor John Bolton,” May 5, 2019, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/statement-national-security-advisor-ambassador-john-bolton-2/.

  12 See Tehran Times, “ ’Maximum pressure’ has produced ‘maximum resistance,’ says Iran’s Araqchi,” September 23, 2019, https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/440423/Maximum-pressure-has-produced-maximum-resistance-says-Iran-s.

  13 See Tamer El-Ghobashy, Michael Birnbaum and Carol Morello, “Iran announces it will stop complying with parts of landmark nuclear deal,” May 8, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/iran-to-take-steps-to-reduce-its-commitment-to-landmark-nuclear-deal/2019/05/07/90cc3b1c-70fe-11e9-9331-30bc5836f48e_story.html.

  14 Ibid., and “Kremlin: Russia warned Iran against withdrawing from nuclear non-proliferation treaty,” May 30, 2019, https://uawire.org/kremlin-russia-warns-iran-not-to-withdraw-from-nuclear-non-proliferation-treaty.

  15 See Michael Peel and Najmeh Bozorgmehr, “European power reject Iran ‘ultimatums,’ ” https://www.ft.com/content/247236ba-7234-11e9-bf5c-6eeb837566c5.

  16 For public remarks by Dunford along these lines, see Adam Twardowski, “At Brookings, Gen. Joseph Dunford comments on threats from China, Russia, North Korea and beyond,” June 4, 2019, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2019/06/04/at-brookings-gen-joseph-dunford-comments-on-threats-from-russia-china-north-korea-and-beyond/.

  17 See “Remarks by President Trump on Ending Surprise Medical Billing,” May 9, 2019, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-ending-surprise-medical-billing/.

  18 See, e.g., RFE/RL, “Saudi Arabia, U.A.E., Norway at U.N. Blame ‘State Actor’ for May 12 Tanker Attacks,” June 9, 2019, https://www.rferl.org/a/saudi-arabia-uae-norway-blame-state-actor-tanker-attack/29985842.html.

  19 Ibid.

  20 See David A. Sanger and William J. Broad, “In a Tweet Taunting Iran, Trump Releases an Image Thought to Be Classified,” August 30, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/30/world/middleeast/trump-iran-missile-explosion-satellite-image.html.

  21 See Stephen Kalin and Rania El Gamal, Reuters, “Saudi oil facilities attacked, US sees threat in Iraq from Iran-backed forces,” May 14, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-oil-usa-iran/saudi-oil-facilities-attacked-us-sees-threat-in-iraq-from-iran-backed-forces-idUSKCN1SK0YM.

  22 See “Remarks by President Trump Before Marine One Departure,” May 14, 2019, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-marine-one-departure-42/.

  23 This was a long-standing refrain. See Kimon de Greef and Palko Karasz, “Trump Cites False Claims of Widespread Attacks Against White Farmers in South Africa,” August 23, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/23/world/africa/trump-south-africa-white-farmers.html.

  24 See Alissa J. Rubin and Falih Hassan, “Rocket Hits Green Zone in Baghdad as Tensions Flare Between U.S. and Iran,” May 19, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/19/world/middleeast/rocket-baghdad-greenzone.html.

  25 See Reuters, “Iran’s Rouhani: Today’s situation isn’t suitable for talks; resistance is our only choice – IRNA,” May 21, 2019, https://uk.reuters.com/article/usa-iran-rouhni/irans-rouhani-todays-situation-isnt-suitable-for-talks-resistance-is-our-only-choice-irna-idUKL5N22X01X.

  26 See Michelle Nichols, Lesley Wroughton, and Phil Stewart, “Exclusive: Iran’s Zarif belies Trump does not want war, but could be lured into conflict,” April 24, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-usa-exclusive/exclusive-irans-zarif-believes-trump-does-not-want-war-but-could-be-lured-into-conflict-idUSKCN1S02VK.

  27 See Michael MacArthur Bosack, “Success or failure for Abe in Tehran?” June 18, 2019, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2019/06/18/commentary/japan-commentary/success-failure-abe-tehran/#.Xn97SIhKiF4.

  28 Ibid.

  29 See Reuters, “US blames Iran for helping Houthi rebels shoot down drone in Yemen,” June 16, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-attacks-usa-drone/us-blames-iran-for-helping-houthi-rebels-shoot-down-drone-in-yemen-idUSKCN1TH0LA.

  30 See, e.g., Peter Baker et al., “Trump Undercuts Bolton on North Korea and Iran,” https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/28/us/politics/trump-john-bolton-north-korea-iran.html?searchResultPosition=3.

  31 See “U.S. Central Command Statement on June 13 Limpet Mine Attack in the Gulf of Oman,” June 13, 2019, https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/STATEMENTS/Statements-View/Article/1875666/us-central-command-statement-on-june-13-limpet-mine-attack-in-the-gulf-of-oman/.

  32 See ibid., which contains a link to the film.

  33 Trump’s view was widely shared. See e.g., Ishaan Tharoor, “Shinzo Abe’s mission to Iran ends in flames,” June 14, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/06/14/shinzo-abes-mission-iran-ends-flames/.

  34 See Conor Finnegan, “Iran’s Ayatollah Khameini said he rejects Trump’s offer to talk,” June 13, 2019, https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/irans-ayatollah-khamenei-rejects-trumps-offer-talk/story?id=63687413.

  35 Publicly available statistics make the same point, although varying depending on what time period is used to measure the imports. See, e.g., Reuters, “Factbox: Asia region is most dependent on Middle East crude oil, LNG supplies,” January 8, 2020, https://in.reuters.com/article/asia-mideast-oil-factbox/factbox-asia-region-is-most-dependent-on-middle-east-crude-oil-lng-supplies-idINKBN1Z71VW.

  36 See Laurence Norman and Gordon Lubold, “Iran to Breach Limits of Nuclear Pact, as USto Send More Troops to Mideast,” https://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-to-breach-limits-of-nuclear-pact-putting-bid-to-save-deal-in-doubt-11560765015.

  37 Ibid.

  38 See Mark Landler, “Obama Says Iran Strike Is an Option, but Warns Israel,” March 3, 2012, https://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/03/world/middleeast/obama-says-military-option-on-iran-not-a-bluff.html.

  39 See Tessa Berenson, “Exclusive: President Trump Calls Alleged Iranian Attack on Oil Tankers ‘Very Minor,’ ”
https://time.com/5608787/iran-oil-tanker-attack-very-minor/.

  40 See Alissa J. Rubin, “2 Rockets Strike Oil Fields in Southern Iraq,” June 19, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/19/world/middleeast/iraq-rocket-attacks-basra.html. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/19/world/middleeast/iraq-rocket-attacks-basra.html.

  41 See Bethan McKernan, “Iraq rocket attack: oil firms begin evacuating staff from Basra site,” June 19, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/19/iraq-rocket-attack-basra-injured-foreign-oil-companies.

  42 Sarah Sanders issued a short statement that Trump had been briefed on the attack that evening. See Saudi Desalination Plant Struck by Missile from Yemen, U.S. Drone Shot Down–Reports,” June 20, 2019, http://sustg.com/saudi-desalination-plant-struck-by-missile-from-yemen-u-s-drone-shot-down-reports/.

  43 See, e.g., Henry Fernandez, Fox News, “US navy drone shot down by Iranian missile cost $130M,” June 20, 2019, https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/us-navy-drone-shot-down-iranian-missile-cost.

  44 See, e.g., Michael D. Shear, Eric Schmitt, Michael Crowley, and Maggie Haberman, “Strikes on Iran Approved by Trump, Then Abruptly Called Back,” June 20, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/20/world/middleeast/iran-us-drone.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share and James LaPorta and Tom O’Connor, “Donald Trump Decided to Strike Iranian Missile System, Then Changed His Mind,” June 21, 2019, https://www.newsweek.com/us-military-strikes-iran-drone-1445116.

  45 See, e.g., Peter Baker et al., “Urged to Launch an Attack, Trump Listened to the Skeptics Who Said It Would Be a Costly Mistake,” posted at https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/21/us/politics/trump-iran-strike.html.

  46 CENTCOM also issued public statements. See, https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/STATEMENTS/Statements-View/Article/1881682/us-central-command-statement-iranians-shoot-down-us-drone/; and https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/STATEMENTS/Statements-View/Article/1882519/us-air-forces-central-command-statement-on-the-shoot-down-of-a-us-rq-4/.

  47 As previously noted, estimates varied depending in part on what equipment each drone carried. Dunford’s cost citation here was within the range previously cited. Other public estimates were as high as $220 million. See,Lily Hay Newman, “The Drone Iran Shot Down Was a $220M Surveillance Monster,” June 20, 2019, https://www.wired.com/story/iran-global-hawk-drone-surveillance/.

  48 CENTCOM released a map showing the location from which where it believed the Iranian SAM missiles had been fired. See Amy McCullough, Jennifer-Leigh Oprihory, and Jennifer Hlad, “CENTCOM: Iranian SAM Shoots Down US Drone Over Strait of Hormuz,” June 20, 2019, https://www.airforcemag.com/centcom-iranian-sam-shoots-down-us-drone-over-strait-of-hormuz/.

  49 Russia has an extensive military-sales-and-cooperation relationship with Iran, frequently involving train-and-assist elements. See, e.g., Michael Eisenstadt, “Russian Arms and technology Transfers to Iran: Policy Challenges for the United States,” https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2001-03/iran-nuclear-briefs/russian-arms technology-transfers-iranpolicy-challenges-united; and Maxim A. Suchkov, “Intel: How Russia is deepening military ties with Iran to counter the US,” June 30, 2019, https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2019/07/intel-russia-deepening-military-ties-iran-counter-us.html.

  50 CENTCOM issued a statement shortly after the attack on its development of “Operation Sentinel,” which was intended to employ naval patrols in and around the Gulf through a multilateral cooperative effort. See “U.S. Central Command Statement on Operation Sentinel,” July 19, 2019, https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/STATEMENTS/Statements-View/Article/1911282/us-central-command-statement-on-operation-sentinel/.

  51 See Schwebel, Judge Stephen, Nicaragua vs. U.S., 1986 I.C.J. 14, 259 (June 27), quoted in “Draft Articles on State Responsibility–Comments of the Government of the United States of America”, U.S. State Department, http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/28993.pdf, March 1, 2001.

  52 See, e.g., Michael D. Shear et al., “Strikes on Iran Approved by Trump, Then Abruptly Pulled Back,” https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/20/world/middleeast/iran-us-drone.html ; and Michael D. Shear, et al., “Trump Says He Was ‘Cocked and Loaded’ to Strike Iran, but Pulled Back,” June 21, 2019, https://www.nyt.com/2019/06/21/us/politics/trump-iran-attack.html.

  53 See Peter Baker, Eric Schmitt, and Michael Crowley, “An Abrupt Move That Stunned Aides: Inside Trump’s Aborted Attack on Iran,” September 21, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/21/us/politics/trump-iran-decision.html.

  54 See Maya King, “Trump: Rand Paul to help with Iran negotiations,” July 19, 2019, https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/19/rand-paul-iran-trump-1423779.

  55 See “Remarks by President Trump Before Marine One Departure,” June 22, 2019, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-marine-one-departure-49/.

  56 See David E. Sanger and Ronen Bergman, “How Israel, in Dark of Night, Torched Its Way to Iran’s Nuclear Secrets,” July 15, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/15/us/politics/iran-israel-mossad-nuclear.html.

  57 See Reuters, “Chronology on Iran’s Nuclear Program,” August 8, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/08/international/chronology-of-irans-nuclear-program.html; AFP, “ ‘Uranium particles’ detected at undeclared site in Iran: IAEA,” November 11, 2019, https://www.france24.com/en/20191111-uranium-particles-detected-at-undeclared-site-in-iran-iaea-1; and Alexander Ma, “Investigators found uranium particles at a secret facility in Iran, suggesting a further rejection of the nuclear deal,” November 12, 2019, https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-nuclear-watchdog-uranium-secret-facility-bbc-2019-11. Like any product of mining, uranium is processed mechanically and chemically in advance of actually being put to use, in uranium’s case, before it can be enriched. Milling separates uranium from the associated ore by chemical leeching, and subsequent refinement produces U3O8, or yellowcake, a solid, which is how uranium is typically stored and shipped prior to actually being put to use within the nuclear fuel cycle. Before uranium can be enriched, it is converted chemically from a solid to a gas, usually UF6, before it can be injected into centrifuges. Of course, Israel knows for certain what form the uranium is in since it has the stolen documents, as does the IAEA, which has collected samples, but the likelihood is that the uranium at Turquzabad was yellowcake, rather than something further along in the nuclear fuel cycle.

  58 See RFE/RL, “Israel Accuses Iran Of Having ‘Secret Atomic Warehouse’ Near Tehran,” September 28, 2018, https://www.rferl.org/a/israeli-prime-minister-netanyahu-accuses-iran-having-secret-atomic-warehouse-outside-tehran/29514107.html.

  59 See U.S. Department of the Treasury, Treasury Designates Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif for Acting for the Supreme Leader of Iran, July 31, 2019, https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm749.

  60 See p. 64 in https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/DCPD-2019DIGEST/pdf/DCPD-2019DIGEST.pdf.

  61 See note 50 above; and Simon Newton, “Operation Sentinel: The Naval Taskforce Protecting Gulf Shipping,” November 15, 2019, https://www.forces.net/news/operation-sentinel-naval-taskforce-protecting-gulf-shipping

  62 See, e.g., “ ’Maximum pressure’ has produced ‘maximum resistance,’ says Iran’s Araqchi,” September 23, 2019, https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/440423/Maximum-pressure-has-produced-maximum-resistance-says-Iran-s

  63 See Reuters, “Macron says he warned Iran’s Rouhani about breaking nuclear commitments,” June 27, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-france/macron-says-he-warned-irans-rouhani-about-breaking-nuclear-commitments-idUSKCN1TS0YU.

  64 See note 54 above.

  65 See “Remarks of President Trump Before Boarding Marine One,” July 19, 2019, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-marine-one-departure-53/

  66 See Mosheh Gaines et al., “U.S. Marines jam an Iranian drone in the Gulf, destroying it,” July 18, 2019, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/trump-says-u-s-navy-ship-shot-down-iranian-drone-n1031451.

  67 See p. 75 in https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/
DCPD-2019DIGEST/pdf/DCPD-2019DIGEST.pdf.

  68 Peter Bergen, Trump and His Generals, Penguin Press, New York, 2019, pp. 69–70.

  69 See Helene Cooper, “American Military Drone Shot Down Over Yemen,” August 21, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/21/us/politics/american-drone-yemen.html

  70 See David Halbfinger, “Israel Says It Struck Iranian ‘Killer Drones’ in Syria,” August 24, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/24/world/middleeast/israel-says-it-struck-iranian-killer-drones-in-syria.html.

  71 Ibid.

  72 See John Irish and “Parisa Hafezi, “France Pushes for $15 billion credit line plan for Iran, if US allows it,” September 3, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-usa-france/france-pushes-15-billion-credit-line-plan-for-iran-if-us-allows-it-idUSKCN1VO1AF.

  73 See, e.g., Peter Baker, “Iranian Official Makes Surprise Appearance on Sidelines of G7 Summit,” https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/25/world/europe/g7-iran-trump-biarritz.html.

  CHAPTER 13: FROM THE AFGHANISTAN COUNTERTERRORISM MISSION TO THE CAMP DAVID NEAR MISS

  1 The notion of a continuing Afghanistan counterterrorism platform was basic at the outset of the Trump Administration, and had been for many years. See Brian Dodwell and Don Rassler, “A View from the CT Foxhole: General John W. Nicholson, Commander, Resolute Support and U.S. Forces-Afghanistan,” February, 2017, https://ctc.usma.edu/a-view-from-the-ct-foxhole-general-john-w-nicholson-commander-resolute-support-and-u-s-forces-afghanistan/.

  2 The prepublication review process has insisted that I insert the following note: “In February/March 2020, the United States signed an agreement with the Taliban, but what follows in this chapter is the policy debate while I was National Security Advisor in 2019.”

  3 See Bolton, Surrender Is Not an Option, pp. 85–87.

  4 See Ken Bredemeier, “US: No Cooperation with ICC Probe of Alleged Afghan War Crimes,” https://www.voanews.com/usa/us-no-cooperation-icc-probe-alleged-afghan-war-crimes.

  5 This exchange with Merkel, somewhat embellished from time to time, was a staple in Trump’s repertoire of exchanges with foreign leaders. It would arise again in the Ukraine context, as the next chapter indicates.