Hedge
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Many thanks also go to Richard Straub, Sophie Fay, Dominique Nora, Jonathan Derbyshire, Anne-Sylvaine Chassany, Philippe Escande, Antoine Reverchon, Renaud Thillaye, Sophie Pedder, and Matthieu Croissandeau for providing me with various opportunities to share my thoughts.
A special mention goes to Henri Verdier, as our book L’ge de la multitude became the natural precursor to this one, and to my old accomplice Bruno Palier, with whom I published an article in Foreign Affairs in 2015 called the “The Next Safety Net”. In a way, those were the works that started it all!
Hedge is the result of all these wonderful relationships and interactions; any errors remain, of course, my own.
[1] Carlota Perez, Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages (Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2003), 165.
[2] Nicolas Colin, “Les fossoyeurs de l’innovation,” republished with a foreword February 18, 2016 (in French),
https://salon.thefamily.co/les-fossoyeurs-de-l-innovation-6a754d1e8e35.
[3] Bryan Burrough and John Helyar, Barbarians at the Gate: The Fall of RJR Nabisco (New York: Harper & Row, 1989).
[4] Matt Bai, “What Steve Jobs Understood That Our Politicians Don’t,” The New York Times, October 6, 2011,
https://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/06/what-steve-jobs-understood-that-our-politicians-dont/.
[5] In 1998, at the peak of the optimism inspired by the “new economy”, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) predicted that 1.87 million jobs would be created in IT services by 2008, but just over 500,000 were actually created, even before the 2008 financial crisis. In communications, 150,000 jobs were destroyed by productivity gains, while the BLS had forecast the creation of nearly 300,000 additional jobs. Marc Giget, “Réflexions autour de l’innovation industrielle”, Le numérique dans la réindustrialisation, Rencontres de Cap Digital, 27 March, 2012, http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xsnbn5.
[6] Pierre Collin and Nicolas Colin, “Taxation and the Digital Economy” (Task force report commissioned by the French Government, January 2013),
https://www.dropbox.com/s/6w2divhpv3dcegj/Taxation_Digital_Economy.pdf?dl=0.
[7] Jesse Drucker, “Google 2.4% Rate Shows How $60 Billion Is Lost to Tax Loopholes,” Bloomberg, 2010, July 21,
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2010-10-21/google-2-4-rate-shows-how-60-billion-u-s-revenue-lost-to-tax-loopholes.
[8] Tim O’Reilly, “This New York Times piece on the Amazon-California sales tax dispute,” Google Plus, September 5, 2011, https://plus.google.com/+TimOReilly/posts/QypNDmvJJq7.
[9] Erik Brynjolfsson & Andrew McAfee, The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2014).
[10] Matt Novak, “Did Al Gore Invent the Internet?,” Gizmodo, October 18, 2013,
http://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/did-al-gore-invent-the-internet-1447761524.
[11] Jeff Madrick, Age of Greed: The Triumph of Finance and the Decline of America, 1970 to the Present, Reprint edition (New York: Vintage Books, 2012).
[12] Thomas Ferguson and Joel Rogers, Right Turn: The Decline of the Democrats and the Future of American Politics (New York: Hill & Wang, 1987), 46-48.
[13] Ira Katznelson, Fear Itself: The New Deal and the Origins of Our Time (New York: Liveright, 2014).
[14] Molly Reden, “Wall Street Failed To Crush The Democrats. Now What?,” The New Republic, November 6, 2012,
https://www.evernote.com/l/AOzuzVbsa7BBo4bjT3NT5Wu2FJ2YK1C_9oI.
[15] Jonathan D. Salant, “Goldman Sachs Leads Split With Obama, as GE Jilts Him Too,” Bloomberg, August 9, 2012,
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2012-08-09/goldman-sachs-leads-split-with-obama-as-ge-jilts-him-too.
[16] Rahaf Arfoush, Yes We Did! An inside look at how social media built the Obama brand (San Francisco: New Riders, 2009).
[17] Carla Marinucci, “Bay Area money fills Obama campaign coffers,” The San Francisco Chronicle, November 3, 2012, https://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/Bay-Area-money-fills-Obama-campaign-coffers-4005151.php.
[18] Nate Silver, “In Silicon Valley, Technology Talent Gap Threatens G.O.P. Campaigns,” FiveThirtyEight, November 28, 2012,
https://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/28/in-silicon-valley-technology-talent-gap-threatens-g-o-p-campaigns/.
[19] Steven Brill, “Obama's Trauma Team,” Time Magazine, February 27, 2014,
http://time.com/10228/obamas-trauma-team/.
[20] Alas only Travis Kalanick, then CEO of Uber, once voiced the express support that others tech executives ultimately chose to keep for themselves. See Erin Mershon, “Uber and the gig economy used to love Obamacare. What happened?,” Stat, July 20, 2017,
https://www.statnews.com/2017/07/20/uber-lyft-gig-economy-obamacare/.
[21] The Economist, “Fighting fit: Obamacare is inspiring a horde of hopeful entrepreneurs,” December 1, 2012,
https://www.economist.com/news/business/21567402-obamacare-inspiring-horde-hopeful-entrepreneurs-fighting-fit.
[22] Jonathan Chait, “Looking to Harry Truman to Understand Hillary Clinton,” New York Magazine, May 17, 2016,
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/05/harry-truman-hillary-clinton.html.
[23] Nicolas Colin, “Hillary’s Problem, Explained by Technology,” The Family Papers, July 18, 2016,
https://salon.thefamily.co/software-eating-politics-the-case-for-picking-elizabeth-warren-3c22477c5d9a.
[24] Henry Kissinger, On China (New York: Penguin Books, 2012).
[25] Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World (New York: Penguin Books, 2012).
[26] Evan Osnos, “Making China Great Again,” The New Yorker, January 8, 2018,
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/01/08/making-china-great-again.
[27] National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, “Town Hall Meeting With Dr. Henry Kissinger,” October 18, 2016, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dH0HN2Zgme (at 22:00).
[28] Martin Jacques, “One Belt One Road,” People’s Daily, May 12, 2017,
http://www.martinjacques.com/articles/one-belt-one-road/.
[29] Roger Crowley, Conquerors: How Portugal Forged The First Global Empire (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2016).
[30] Carlota Perez, Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital (Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2003).
[31] Martin Jacques, “The beginning of a new world order,” The New Statesman, April 18, 2012,
http://www.martinjacques.com/essays/the-beginning-of-a-new-world-order/.
[32] Adam Davidson, “Welcome to the Failure Age!,” The New York Times, November 12, 2014,
https://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/16/magazine/welcome-to-the-failure-age.html.
[33] William H. Janeway, Doing Capitalism in the Innovation Economy: Reconfiguring the Three-Player Game between Markets, Speculators and the State, 2nd edition (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2018), 229.
[34] Erik S. Reinert and Benjamin Sagalovsky, “Carlota Perez—Her Biography and the Origins of Her Ideas,” Techno-Economic Paradigms, Essays in Honour of Carlota Perez (London: Anthem Press, The Other Canon, 2009).
[35] Carlota Perez, Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital (Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2003).
[36] Fred Wilson, “The Carlota Perez Framework,” AVC, February 8, 2015,
http://avc.com/2015/02/the-carlota-perez-framework/.
[37] Alexia Tsotsis, “Marc Andreessen: Tech Is Still Recovering From A Depression,” TechCrunch, February 12, 2014,
https://techcrunch.com/2014/02/12/marc-andreessen-tech-is-still-recovering-from-a-depression/.
[38] Chris Dixon, “The computing deployment phase,” cdixon blog, February 10, 2013,
http://cdixon.org/2013/02/10/the-computing-deployment-phase/.
[39] Carlota Perez, “The Double Bubble at the Turn of the Century: Technological Roots and Structural Implications,” Cambridge Journal of Economi
cs 33, no. 4 (July 2009),
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/227464491_The_Double_Bubble_at_the_Turn_of_the_Century_Technological_Roots_and_Structural_Implications.
[40] Carlota Perez, Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages (Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2003), 8.
[41] Robert Wilde, “Canals Were at Their Height during the Industrial Revolution. This Is Why,” ThoughtCo, November 24, 2016, https://www.thoughtco.com/development-of-canals-the-industrial-revolution-1221646.
[42] Edmund S. Phelps, Mass Flourishing: How Grassroots Innovation Created Jobs, Challenge, and Change, 1st edition (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2013).
[43] Frank Dobbin, Forging Industrial Policy: The United States, Britain, and France in the Railway Age (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997).
[44] Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power, Reissue edition (New York: Free Press, 2008).
[45] Olivier Zunz, Why the American Century?, 1st edition (Chicago: University Of Chicago Press, 1998).
[46] Leslie Berlin, The Man Behind the Microchip: Robert Noyce and the Invention of Silicon Valley, 1st edition (New York; Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2006).
[47] Matt Novak, “Did Al Gore Invent the Internet?,” Gizmodo, October 18, 2013,
http://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/did-al-gore-invent-the-internet-1447761524.
[48] See “Ten Theses on the Multitude and Post-Fordist Capitalism” in Paolo Virno, A Grammar of the Multitude: For an Analysis of Contemporary Forms of Life, trans. (Cambridge, MA ; London: Semiotext, 2004).
[49] Friedrich A. Hayek, “The Use of Knowledge in Society,” The American Economic Review 35, no. 4 (September 1945), http://home.uchicago.edu/~vlima/courses/econ200/spring01/hayek.pdf.
[50] André Gorz, The Immaterial, trans. Chris Turner (London: Seagull Books, 2010).
[51] Carl Shapiro and Hal R. Varian, Information Rules: A Strategic Guide to the Network Economy (Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business School Press, 1998).
[52] Don Tapscott, The Digital Economy, Anniversary Edition: Rethinking Promise and Peril in the Age of Networked Intelligence, 2d edition (New York: McGraw-Hill Education, 2014).
[53] Tim O’Reilly, “Next:Economy Summit: Future of Work Conference” (San Francisco: O’Reilly Media, 2016),
https://conferences.oreilly.com/nextcon/economy-us.
[54] Ben Casselman, “Americans Don’t Miss Manufacturing — They Miss Unions,” FiveThirtyEight, May 13, 2016,
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/americans-dont-miss-manufacturing-they-miss-unions/.
[55] Amy Bernstein and Anand Raman, “The Great Decoupling: An Interview with Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee,” Harvard Business Review, June 1, 2015, https://hbr.org/2015/06/the-great-decoupling.
[56] Bryan Appleyard, “The New Luddites: Why Former Digital Prophets Are Turning Against Tech,” The New Republic, September 6, 2014, https://newrepublic.com/article/119347/neo-luddisms-tech-skepticism.
[57] Nelson Lichtenstein, State of the Union: A Century of American Labor, Revised and Expanded edition with a new preface and two new chapters by the author edition (Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 2013), 23.
[58] Karl Polanyi, The Great Transformation: The Political and Economic Origins of Our Time, 2nd edition (Boston, MA: Beacon Press, 2001).
[59] Patrick Iber and Mike Konczal, “Karl Polanyi for President,” Dissent Magazine, May 23, 2016,
https://www.dissentmagazine.org/online_articles/karl-polanyi-explainer-great-transformation-bernie-sanders.
[60] Patrick Iber and Mike Konczal, Ibid.
[61] Karl Polanyi, The Great Transformation: The Political and Economic Origins of Our Time, 2nd edition (Boston, MA: Beacon Press, 2001), 21.
[62] “Upton Sinclair’s The Jungle: Muckraking the Meat-Packing Industry,” Constitutional Rights Foundation, Fall 2008 (Volume 24, No. 1), accessed April 20, 2017,
http://www.crf-usa.org/bill-of-rights-in-action/bria-24-1-b-upton-sinclairs-the-jungle-muckraking-the-meat-packing-industry.html.
[63] Karl Polanyi, The Great Transformation: The Political and Economic Origins of Our Time, 2nd edition (Boston, MA: Beacon Press, 2001), foreword.
[64] Karl Polanyi, The Great Transformation: The Political and Economic Origins of Our Time, 2nd edition (Boston, MA: Beacon Press, 2001), foreword.
[65] Will Wilkinson, “The Freedom Lover’s Case for the Welfare State,” Vox, September 1, 2016,
https://www.vox.com/2016/9/1/12732168/economic-freedom-score-america-welfare-state.
[66] Nelson Lichtenstein, State of the Union: A Century of American Labor, Revised and Expanded edition with a new preface and two new chapters by the author edition (Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 2013), 25.
[67] Nelson Lichtenstein, State of the Union: A Century of American Labor, Revised and Expanded edition with a new preface and two new chapters by the author edition (Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 2013), 6, 32.
[68] David Leonhardt, “The Economics of Henry Ford May Be Passé,” The New York Times, April 5, 2006,
https://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/05/business/the-economics-of-henry-ford-may-be-passe.html.
[69] Daniel Gross, “Henry Ford Understood That Raising Wages Would Bring Him More Profit,” The Daily Beast, January 6, 2014,
https://www.thedailybeast.com/henry-ford-understood-that-raising-wages-would-bring-him-more-profit.
[70] Albert O. Hirschman, Exit, Voice, and Loyalty: Responses to Decline in Firms, Organizations, and States (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1970).
[71] Jonathan Cohn, “How They Did It,” The New Republic, May 21, 2010,
https://newrepublic.com/article/75077/how-they-did-it.
[72] Carlota Perez, Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages (Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2003), 153.
[73] Patrick Iber and Mike Konczal, “Karl Polanyi for President,” Dissent Magazine, May 23, 2016,
https://www.dissentmagazine.org/online_articles/karl-polanyi-explainer-great-transformation-bernie-sanders.
[74] Karl Polanyi, The Great Transformation: The Political and Economic Origins of Our Time, 2nd edition (Boston, MA: Beacon Press, 2001), 246..
[75] Simon Kuper, “The Great Middle-Class Identity Crisis,” The Financial Times, November 8, 2013,
https://www.ft.com/content/04179370-4741-11e3-b4d3-00144feabdc0.
[76] Robert M. Solow, “Hayek, Friedman, and the Illusions of Conservative Economics,” The New Republic, November 16, 2012, https://newrepublic.com/article/110196/hayek-friedman-and-the-illusions-conservative-economics.
[77] To be more precise: Keynesianism under the form of Paul Samuelson’s neoclassical synthesis. See William H. Janeway, Doing Capitalism in the Innovation Economy: Reconfiguring the Three-Player Game between Markets, Speculators and the State, 2nd edition (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2018), 15.
[78] William H. Janeway, Ibid., 227-229, 361-363.
[79] Matthew Yglesias, “The tax reform debate is stuck in the 1970s,” Vox, November 14, 2017,
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/11/14/16634930/tax-reform-debate-stuck-1970s.
[80] Markus K. Brunnermeier, Harold James and Jean-Pierre Landau, The Euro and the Battle of Ideas (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2016).
[81] William H. Janeway, Doing Capitalism in the Innovation Economy: Reconfiguring the Three-Player Game between Markets, Speculators and the State, 2nd edition (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2018),175.
[82] Mark Blyth, Great Transformations: Economic Ideas and Institutional Change in the Twentieth Century (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2002).
[83] Noah Smith, “Free-Market Failure Has Been Greatly Exaggerated,” Bloomberg View, November 15, 2017,
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-11-15/free-markets-improved-more-lives-than-anything-ever.
[84] Kevin Drum, “Want a More Dynamic Economy? Rein in the Size of Big Market Incumbents,” Mother Jones, June 21, 2016,
http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2016/06/want-more-dynamic-economy-rein-size-big-market-incumbents
[85] Pankaj Ghemawat, “Competition and Business Strategy in Historical Perspective,” Business History Review 76, no. 1 (Spring 2002).
[86] David Weil, The Fissured Workplace: Why Work Became So Bad for So Many and What Can Be Done to Improve It (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2014).
[87]Nelson Lichtenstein, State of the Union: A Century of American Labor, Revised and Expanded edition with a new preface and two new chapters by the author edition (Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 2013), 48.
[88] Sarah Krouse and Austen Hufford, “BlackRock Assets Pass $5 Trillion as Earnings Climb,” The Wall Street Journal, October 18, 2016,
http://www.wsj.com/articles/blackrock-earnings-rise-as-assets-under-management-peak-1476788361.
[89] Clayton M. Christensen, Stephen P. Kaufman, and Willy C. Shih, “Innovation Killers: How Financial Tools Destroy Your Capacity to Do New Things,” Harvard Business Review, January 1, 2008,
https://hbr.org/2008/01/innovation-killers-how-financial-tools-destroy-your-capacity-to-do-new-things.
[90] Edmund S. Phelps, “Mass Flourishing: How It Was Won, and Then Lost,” Reuters Blogs, August 16, 2013,
http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2013/08/16/mass-flourishing-how-it-was-won-and-then-lost/.
[91] Thomas Piketty, Capital in the Twenty First Century, trans. Arthur Goldhammer (Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press, 2014).
[92] Jacob S. Hacker, The Great Risk Shift: The New Economic Insecurity and the Decline of the American Dream, Revised edition (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008).
[93] John B. Judis, The Populist Explosion: How the Great Recession Transformed American and European Politics (New York: Columbia Global Reports, 2016).