Blackmail

by Rick Campbell

  The American capital glided past him during the transit, and his car ground to a halt in front of black steel bars blocking the entrance to the White House. After the gate guards checked the ambassador’s identification and completed a security sweep of his vehicle, checking for explosives inside and underneath his car, the gate slid aside and Tupolev’s sedan pulled forward, coasting to a halt beneath the curved overhang of the West Wing portico.

  One of the two marines stationed by the entrance saluted as Tupolev stepped from the car, and the ambassador nodded his appreciation as he made his way up the marble steps toward the White House. Standing at the entrance was Kevin Hardison, the president’s chief of staff, who greeted Tupolev, then led the way down the blue-carpeted hallway. Instead of heading into the Oval Office, Hardison turned left into a conference room. It took Tupolev a moment to realize what room they had entered and the irony therein. The Roosevelt Room.

  Hardison guided Tupolev to the center of five chairs on one side of the table, then departed, returning a moment later with another man and two women, followed by the president. Tupolev stood as the president entered the room.

  The obligatory greetings were exchanged, and Tupolev noticed the forced smiles on the American faces.

  “Be seated, Ambassador,” the president said. He took a chair opposite him, instead of at the head of the table as expected. As he pulled his chair in, Tupolev noticed the portrait of Theodore Roosevelt on the far wall, literally framing the American president. The selection of the Roosevelt Room and the president’s place at the table didn’t go unnoticed. The Americans were making a subtle statement of their displeasure.

  Tupolev settled into his chair as the other four Americans did the same, flanking the president. On the president’s left sat SecDef McVeigh and Secretary of State Dawn Cabral, while to his right was the president’s chief of staff and national security advisor. Tupolev’s eyes settled on Christine O’Connor, meeting her tonight for the first time. The rumors were true. Although she was half Russian and half Irish, her Russian genetics dominated; she could pass for a beautiful Russian woman anywhere in his country. Tupolev wondered if she had any idea whom she resembled. Under different circumstances, he would have taken a moment to enlighten her. Instead, Tupolev returned his attention to the American president, who placed a folder on the table.

  “I hope you don’t mind if I get directly to the point.”

  “Not at all, Mr. President. I don’t want to take up any more of your time than necessary.”

  “I’m sure you’re aware by now,” the president said, “of what occurred off the coast of China yesterday.”

  “Yes, I am aware.”

  When Tupolev offered no other information, the president slid the folder across the table. “I’d like you to explain this.”

  Tupolev opened the folder and examined the documents. After reviewing the evidence of Russia’s transgression, he closed the folder and looked up.

  “On behalf of President Kalinin, I offer a sincere apology for this accident. President Kalinin learned a few hours ago that one of our guided missile submarines accidentally launched a missile salvo at your aircraft carrier.”

  Tupolev slid the folder back to the president.

  “You expect us to believe,” the president replied, “that one of your submarines accidentally launched not one, but twenty-four missiles at our carrier?” The anger in the president’s voice was palpable.

  “Yes, Mr. President, because that is exactly what happened. The submarine crew was engaged in a training evolution, simulating a missile launch against a high-value target—your aircraft carrier in this case—and there was a malfunction in the fire control system. The launch command should not have been sent. Clearly, something went horribly wrong and I assure you we’ll investigate thoroughly and put additional safeguards in place to ensure this does not happen again.

  “In the meantime, President Kalinin has agreed to pay reparations to any crew member injured in the accident and the families of those killed, and we will also cover the cost of the aircraft carrier’s repair. The details will need to be worked out, but Russia takes full responsibility for what happened and we offer our sincerest apology. President Kalinin would normally have called you by now, but he is aware of our meeting and is working to determine how this happened. I’m sure he’ll call in the morning, offering an apology of his own.”

  Tupolev maintained a sincere expression when he finished, contrasting with the surprised looks from the Americans. No doubt, they had expected him to deny Russia’s involvement. Admitting culpability was a bold but savvy move.

  “I have little else to offer tonight,” Tupolev said, “but I will brief you or your designated representative whenever we learn more.”

  Tupolev leaned back slightly, waiting for a response. The president’s jaw muscles flexed as he digested Russia’s confession, most likely attempting to decide whether he was being lied to. Tupolev was telling the truth, of course. Someone in Moscow was doing the lying.

  Finally, the president replied, “I appreciate your candid response, accepting responsibility for what happened. I hope you determine what went wrong quickly, so it doesn’t happen again. Please keep Secretary of State Cabral advised of what you learn.”

  The president stood, extending his hand. “Thank you for joining us tonight.”

  Tupolev shook the president’s hand as he stood, surveying the other four Americans. Not a smile in the room. “Thank you for your understanding,” Tupolev said. “We will work aggressively to ensure this tragedy is not repeated.”

  The president nodded toward Hardison, who escorted the Russian ambassador to the West Wing exit. Tupolev descended the steps toward his awaiting car without a farewell from the American chief of staff.

  He climbed into his sedan and the door closed with a solid thud again. After his driver slid into the front seat, he looked in the rearview mirror. “The embassy, Ambassador?”

  Tupolev nodded and the car eased from the West Wing portico, reversing course toward the White House gate. Tupolev let out a deep breath. That had gone much better than expected.

  5

  WASHINGTON, D.C.

  “He’s lying,” Hardison said as he joined the president and the other three members of his staff and cabinet, still seated in the Roosevelt Room.

  “We’ve already come to that conclusion,” the president replied. “The question is—why did they attack us?”

  “Maybe a more specific question should be asked,” Christine said, then amplified. “Why did they attack Roosevelt?”

  “Good point,” the president said. “This wasn’t a random attack against one of our ships. They wanted to take out one of our carriers.”

  “Maybe not,” McVeigh joined in. “Even a couple of Shipwreck missiles wouldn’t normally knock an aircraft carrier out of commission. They got lucky, detonating ordnance staged on the Hangar Deck and hitting the aircraft carrier’s Island superstructure.”

  Turning to his secretary of state, the president asked, “What’s going on in Russia that might explain their attack?”

  Dawn Cabral replied, “Internally, Russia’s economy is on the brink of recession due to the world oil glut. Oil and natural gas exports provide fifty percent of the Russian government’s revenue, and the low prices are hitting them hard. The ruble has dropped to twenty-five percent of its value from only two years ago, causing disaffection within the Russian population. President Kalinin’s popularity is plummeting ahead of next year’s election, which is causing consternation within his administration. You never know what straws desperate politicians will grab at to shore up their popularity.

  “Regarding external events, Russia is still upset over the addition of the Baltic countries to NATO and has taken a hardline stance against the addition of Finland. Within the Russian administration, the most commonly used phrase translates to ‘Over my dead body.’ Elsewhere, you’ve got Russia’s annexation of Crimea and their support of separatist factions in ea
stern Ukraine. Then there’s Russia’s involvement in Syria, with their level of commitment vacillating every few weeks.”

  Dawn finished up with, “Finally, there’s the issue of Ice Station Nautilus. There are three Russian submarines on the bottom of the Barents Sea. Although Russia’s official demeanor since the incident has been conciliatory, the attack on Roosevelt could be payback.”

  The president contemplated the potential reasons for Russia’s aggression, then said, “We’re not going to solve this tonight. Start working the problem. What we know is that this was Russia’s opening move. We need to figure out what their endgame is, so we can respond appropriately. Without knowing where this is headed, we’d be flailing about in the dark.”

  Turning to McVeigh, he said, “Coordinate with the intelligence agencies and see what they can glean from human sources and electronic means. What kind of ability do we have regarding access to Russian classified information?”

  McVeigh replied, “Most of their military and political communication protocols are secure, although we can break some of their encryptions. I’ll get with Cyber Command and see what we can hack into.”

  The president nodded his agreement, then shifted his gaze to Christine as she spoke.

  “One more thing, Mr. President. I’m scheduled to head to Moscow on Monday for the next round of negotiations for the follow-on to New START.”

  The president leaned back in his chair, assessing the situation before replying. “Let’s go with business as usual. Give them the impression we accepted their explanation at face value. At this point, there’s no reason to derail our negotiations with Russia over a mere … accident.”

  Turning his attention to the entire group, the president said, “Put a full-court press on this. Russia’s up to something, and we need to figure out what that is.”

  6

  WASHINGTON, D.C. • MOSCOW

  WASHINGTON, D.C.

  Seated at his desk in the Russian embassy, Ambassador Tupolev loosened his tie as he relaxed in his leather chair, watching the minutes on the clock tick upward. It was almost 11 p.m. in Washington, D.C., which meant it was approaching 6 a.m. in Moscow. That he’d been directed to report the result of his meeting with the American president tonight, rather than in the morning when it was a more reasonable time in Moscow, was telling.

  When it was only a minute before 11 p.m., Tupolev retrieved a security card from his desk drawer and slid it into the slot in the secure phone on his desk. After he entered his access code, the display on the phone reported the expected message.

  Secure.

  Tupolev punched the numbers into the phone. When the clock struck 11 p.m., there was a click on the other end, and a man’s digitized voice emanated from the speaker.

  MOSCOW

  Russian Defense Minister Boris Chernov spoke into the telephone, selected to speakerphone so the other seven individuals in the conference room could overhear the conversation. Seated at the head of the table this morning was Russian President Yuri Kalinin, and to his right sat Semyon Gorev, director of the Foreign Intelligence Service—the successor to the First Chief Directorate of the KGB—referred to as the SVR due to its Russian spelling, Sluzhba Vneshney Razvedki.

  Defense Minister Chernov was next in line, followed by Russia’s foreign minister, Andrei Lavrov. On the other side of the table sat four military officers: Kalinin’s senior military advisor—Chief of the General Staff Sergei Andropov, and the commanders of the Russian Ground Forces, Aerospace Forces, and Navy.

  “Good evening, Ambassador Tupolev,” Chernov said. “I’m here with President Kalinin.” Chernov glanced at the other six men, who would not speak during the teleconference. “How did your meeting with the Americans go?”

  “They were upset, understandably, but accepted our apology.” Tupolev provided the details, with Chernov exchanging glances with the other men around the table as they digested the American response. Tupolev ended with, “The American president has requested we keep them abreast of our investigation of the mishap, providing them with updates as we learn more.”

  “Of course,” Chernov replied. “An investigation is already under way, and we will forward to you what we learn. We will contact you again soon.”

  Chernov looked to President Kalinin, who leaned toward the phone. “Ambassador Tupolev. Thank you for your service today.”

  “It was not a problem, Mr. President.”

  Chernov terminated the call, his thoughts turning to this morning’s meeting. The plan they would hopefully put in motion was his, carefully crafted over the last three years. Following America’s war with China, a window of opportunity had opened where its success was virtually assured. However, the decision to proceed would be made by President Kalinin, who still had reservations. Chernov had assembled the three military chiefs and his chief of the general staff, along with the head of the SVR, in the conference room this morning with the hope of persuading the Russian president.

  Yuri Kalinin was approaching the end of his third year in office, having succeeded Vladimir Putin as president of the Russian Federation. Although Kalinin had a similar background as Putin, with time spent in the KGB during the waning years of the Cold War, he was far less disposed to using military force to achieve Russia’s objectives. Had Putin still been in office, Chernov lamented, he would not have had to go through such extraordinary measures to convince the Russian president of the wisdom of his plan.

  As all eyes turned to him, Chernov launched into his prepared oratory. “Our attack on the American aircraft carrier provided the proof we needed. We bloodied America’s nose and they do nothing. They have no stomach for another conflict following their war with China. What remains of their Navy is stretched too thin, and their Marine Corps is still replacing its losses. The Americans will avoid another war at any cost, even if they have to bury their heads in the sand, accepting our preposterous explanation for the attack on their aircraft carrier.”

  There were nods of agreement from the military staff, but no sign from Kalinin. Chernov continued, directing his words at the Russian president. “Our plan will succeed. You’ve reviewed the military forces at NATO’s disposal compared to ours. NATO has never been weaker, while Russia has not been stronger since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. NATO is a paper tiger without the United States, and with America restrained, NATO will have neither the will nor ability to respond.

  “Now is the time,” Chernov said with conviction. “The American Navy is down to four aircraft carriers and less than fifty percent of their surface warships and submarines. The window on this opportunity will close in a year when their Navy begins exiting the repair yards, quickly returning to near full strength.”

  Kalinin turned to his chief of the general staff. “What is your assessment?”

  General Andropov replied, “From a military standpoint, we will succeed. NATO has insufficient forces to mount an adequate response. However, I can attest only to the military aspect of NATO’s capability. There are other ways the West can respond.”

  “That’s what I’m worried about,” Kalinin said. “The economic sanctions imposed could exacerbate the situation we are in, overriding the gains made by the military.”

  Chernov replied quickly, “With the additional insurance we added to the plan, there will be no economic sanctions. The West will have no choice but to acquiesce to our demands.”

  “Perhaps,” Kalinin said. “Predicting how the United States will respond is not as simple as you make it out to be.”

  Chernov said, “It’s the right decision for Russia. It’s the right decision for you.” He didn’t need to elaborate. He’d had many discussions with Kalinin, attempting to influence his decision by capitalizing on Russia’s flagging economy and the growing unrest among the population. Unless something changed, Kalinin would be defeated soundly during the presidential election next year. Russia—and Kalinin—required a bold stroke to rectify their deteriorating situations.

  “And the justifica
tion?” Kalinin asked.

  “The Russian people don’t need ironclad justification,” Chernov answered. “They long for the days when Russia was a superpower, and resent the second-tier status our once great country has been relegated to since the fall of the Soviet Union. As long as there are no negative consequences to the people, they will support your use of force. Any reasonable justification will suffice.”

  President Kalinin surveyed the men around the table before replying. “Each of you plays an important role in this plan. I will not approve unless you agree it is in Russia’s best interest to proceed and that in your assessment, we will succeed.”

  Kalinin’s eyes fell first on Admiral Oleg Lipovsky, Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy and the most junior military officer at the table. His forces had the most difficult assignment, and Chernov knew he was the least enamored with the plan.

  After hesitating a moment, Lipovsky replied, “It is in Russia’s best interest, and the Navy will not fail.”

  One by one, the three generals beside Lipovsky concurred with the plan and its success, leaving only the head of the SVR. Semyon Gorev smiled and placed his hand on Kalinin’s shoulder.

  “I’ll do whatever you ask, Yuri.”

  “That isn’t my question,” Kalinin replied. “Will you succeed?”

  Gorev pulled back slightly, as if offended by the question. “Of course the SVR will succeed. Our part is relatively easy.”

  Silence descended on the conference room as Kalinin moved toward his decision. Finally, he announced, “I approve the operation, but only the preparations.” Turning to Chernov, he said, “Proceed with the plan and brief me when you are ready to execute.”

  Chernov replied, “We will commence preparations today.”