Poker for Dummies (Mini Edition)
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If your opponents would raise with any two pair and would call with lesser hands, like A-8 or Q-J, you’ll want to bet. If they had made two pair on the turn, that’s when they would have likely raised. Except for the chance that they’re holding A-9, Q-9, 9-7, or 9-4, your bet on the river will elicit a call, and you’ll win.
Now imagine the same scenario, but this time your opponent is first to act. If she bets, should you fold, call, or raise, and if she checks, should you bet?
If your opponent is very aggressive and tends to overplay weak hands, you can raise if you suspect she’s betting a weaker hand than yours. If she’s a tight player, just call her bet. If she’s a real rock who seldom, if ever, bluffs, then throw away anything less than top pair with a very big kicker whenever she bets on the river.
The key, of course, is to know your opponents and their tendencies. Top pair on the river is a very common situation, and learning to play it well is critically important.
When the Pot Gets Big
Pots sometimes grow quite large, particularly when there has been a raise before the flop. This can tie a lot of players to the pot, and if the flop provides a flush- or straight-draw to your opponents, you can be certain they’ll be there to the end.
If the straight or flush cards fail to come, a bet will usually drop any opponents who were drawing. Often, there are only two or three opponents contesting a very large pot on the river.
You might be in there with second pair, or perhaps top pair with a marginal kicker, and your opponent comes out betting. You’re holding a hand you’d throw away if the pot were small, but with all that money in it, what should you do? Suppose you’re playing in a $3–$6 Hold’em game and the pot is $90 by the time you reach the river. If your opponent bets, the pot now contains $96 and is offering you 16-to-1 on your money. If you call and are beaten, the cost is only an additional $6.
If you throw away your hand and your opponent was bluffing, you made a $96 mistake.
The answer should be obvious. If you believe this to be a situation in which your opponent would bluff more than one time in 16, go ahead and call. You can comfortably throw your hand away only if you’re sure your opponent would never bluff.
You’re always better off committing the small error of calling with a losing hand, than the catastrophic error of folding a winner. In the situation cited earlier, even if your opponent would bluff only one time in ten, you’re far better off calling than folding.
If you were to call ten times, you’d lose $6 on nine occasions, for a loss of $54. On the tenth occasion, you’d win a $96 pot, for a net profit of $42. If you divide that $42 profit by each of the ten times you called, your decision to call is worth $4.20 each time you make it — regardless of whether you win that particular pot.
If you’re second to act and you think there’s some chance you have the best hand, even if you don’t consider yourself the favorite, you may want to raise if your opponent comes out betting. By doing this, you may get the third opponent to lay down his hand. If your first opponent was betting a fairly weak hand in hopes that you might fold, he, in turn, may now fold if he suspects you’re holding a powerhouse. A play like this also adds some deception to your game. But like all deceptive plays, you have to use it sparingly.