World 3.0
Page 39
17. David E. Bloom and David Canning, “Global Demographic Change: Dimensions and Economic Significance,” NBER working paper 10817, September 2004.
18. According to the UN, the share of migrants in the world population (excluding the former Soviet Union and Czechoslovakia for comparability because their breakups caused people to become reclassified as migrants without actual movement) grew from 2.7% to 2.8% between 1960 and 2010 (United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report 2009, 30). The International Organization for Migration (IOM) reports that migrants formed 2.5% of the world population in 1960 and 3.1% in 2010 (IOM, World Migration Report 2005, 379, http://www.iom.int/jahia/webdav/site/myjahiasite/shared/shared/mainsite/published_docs/books/wmr_sec03.pdf, and IOM website, Facts and Figures, http://www.iom.int/jahia/Jahia/about-migration/facts-and-figures/lang/en).
19. United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report 2009, 29.
20. Eric Ng and John Whalley, “Visas and Work Permits: Possible Global Negotiating Initiatives,” Review of International Organizations 3, no. 3 (2008): 259–285.
21. N. Foner, From Ellis Island to JFK (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2002), as cited in United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report 2009, 30.
22. Ng and Whalley, “Visas and Work Permits.”
23. David McKenzie, “Passport Costs and Legal Barriers to Emigration,” World Bank Policy Research working paper 3783, December 2005.
24. United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report 2009, 29.
25. Ibid., 30–32.
26. See Bob Hamilton and John Whalley, “Efficiency and Distributional Implications of Global Restrictions on Labour Mobility: Calculations and Policy Implications,” Journal of Development Economics 14, no. 1–2 (1984): 61–75; and Jonathon W. Moses and Bjørn Letnes, “The Economic Costs to International Labor Restrictions: Revisiting the Empirical Discussion,” World Development 32, no. 10 (2004): 1609–1626.
27. World Bank, “Global Economic Prospects 2006: Economic Implications of Remittances and Migration,” 2006.
28. United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report 2009, 24.
29. D. van der Mensbrugghe and D. Roland-Holst, “Global Economic Prospects for Increasing Developing Country Migration into Developed Countries,” Human Development research paper 50, United Nations Development Programme, October 2009, as cited in United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report 2009.
30. Eduardo Porter, “Cost of Illegal Immigration May Be Less Than Meets the Eye,” New York Times, April 16, 2006.
31. George J. Borjas, “The Labor Demand Curve Is Downward Sloping: Reexamining the Impact of Immigration on the Labor Market,” NBER working paper 9755, June 2003.
32. Howard F. Chang, “The Economic Impact of International Labor Migration: Recent Estimates and Policy Implications,” Scholarship at Penn Law, paper no. 132, 2007.
33. Porter, “Cost of Illegal Immigration May Be Less Than Meets the Eye.”
34. Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano and Giovanni Peri, “Immigration and National Wages: Clarifying the Theory and the Empirics,” NBER working paper 14188, July 2008.
35. United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report 2009, 86.
36. Philippe Legrain, “Let Them In,” Forbes, June 28, 2010.
37. Ibid.
38. Wolfgang Lutz and Sergei Scherbov, “The Contribution of Migration to Europe's Demographic Future: Projections for the EU-25 to 2050,” IIASA Interim Report IR-07-024, September 17, 2007.
39. United Nations Population Department, “Replacement Migration: Is It a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations?” 2000, cited in L. Alan Winters, “Demographic Transition and the Temporary Mobility of Labour” (paper for G20 Workshop on Demographic Challenges and Migration, August 27–28, 2005).
40. Winters, “Demographic Transition and the Temporary Mobility of Labour.”
41. United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report 2009, 89–90.
42. Frederic Docquier and Hillel Rapoport, “How Does Skilled Emigration Affect Developing Countries? Facts, Theory and Policy” (paper for G20 Workshop on Demographic Challenges and Migration, August 27–28, 2005).
43. Michel Beine, Frederic Docquier, and Hillel Rapoport, “Brain Drain and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence,” Journal of Development Economics 64 (2001): 275–289.
44. United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report 2009, 72–74.
45. Ibid., 77.
46. Terrie Walmsley, S. Amer Ahmed, and Christopher Parsons, “The Impact of Liberalizing Labour Mobility in the Pacific Region,” Global Trade Analysis Project working paper no. 31, 2009 (revised).
47. See John Hicks, The Theory of Wages (London: Macmillan, 1932); and Arthur C. Pigou, The Theory of Unemployment (London: Macmillan, 1932).
Chapter Nine
1. Milton Friedman, Free to Choose: A Personal Statement (San Diego, CA: Harcourt, 1980), chapter 5.
2. Branko Milanovic, “Where in the World Are You? Assessing the Importance of Circumstance and Effort in a World of Different Mean Country Incomes and (almost) No Migration,” World Bank Policy Research working paper 4493, January 2008.
3. Branko Milanovic, “Global Inequality and Global Inequality Extraction Ratio: The Story of the Last Two Centuries,” World Bank/University of Maryland, July 30, 2009 (paper available online at http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16535/).
4. Jadish Bhagwati, In Defense of Globalization (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2004), 67.
5. Philippe Aghion, Eve Caroli, and Cecilia García-Peñalosa, “Inequality and Economic Growth: The Perspective of the New Growth Theories,” Journal of Economic Literature 37, no. 4 (December 1999): 1615–1660.
6. Machiko Nissanke and Erik Thorbecke, “Channels and Policy Debate in the Globalization-Inequality-Poverty Nexus,” United Nations University—World Institute for Development Economics research discussion paper 2005/08, June 2005.
7. World Bank, World Development Report 2000/2001: Attacking Poverty (New York: Oxford University Press, 2001), 56–57.
8. Jeffrey Sachs, “The Strategic Significance of Global Inequality,” Washington Quarterly 24, no. 3 (2001): 185–198.
9. The actual empirical evidence in this regard is reviewed later in this chapter.
10. See Paul A. Samuelson, “Where Ricardo and Mill Rebut and Confirm Arguments of Mainstream Economists Supporting Globalization,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 18, no. 3 (Summer, 2004): 135–146. The mechanism that actually lowered U.S. welfare in Samuelson's paper involved faster productivity growth in China in sectors in which it imported U.S. goods diminishing trade in those sectors—with protectionism in the United States only making things worse.
11. See, for instance, the (gentle) treatment in Jagdish Bhagwati, Arvind Panagariya, and T. N. Srinivasan, “The Muddles over Outsourcing,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 18, no. 4 (Fall, 2004): 93–114.
12. Jeffrey G. Williamson, “Globalization, Labor Markets and Policy Backlash in the Past,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 12, no. 4. (Autumn 1998): 51–72.
13. Branko Milanovic, “Global Inequality Recalculated: The Effect of New 2005 PPP Estimates of Global Inequality,” World Bank Policy Research working paper 5061, September 2009, 13.
14. For the era of World 1.0, statistics compiled by national governments allow for more formal quantification and specifically the estimation of Gini indices. The estimation given in this sentence is for 1820. Branko Milanovic, “Global Inequality and Global Inequality Extraction Ratio: The Story of the Last Two Centuries,” MPRA paper 16535, July 31, 2009.
15. U.S. Census Bureau, Income, Table H-4, Gini Ratios for Households, by Race and Hispanic Origin of Householder: 1967 to 2007, http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/data/historical/household/h04.html.
16. Milanovic, “Global Inequality and Global Inequality Extraction Ratio,” 13.
17. Ibid., 12.
18. Range
established by studies cited above by Milanovic (upper bound) and Pinkovskiy and Sala-i-Martin (lower bound).
19. James B. Davies, Susanna Sandstrom, Anthony Shorrocks, and Edward N. Wolff, “The World Distribution of Household Wealth,” United Nations University—World Institute for Development Economics research discussion paper no. 2008/03, February 2008, 7.
20. OECD, “Policy Brief: Globalisation, Jobs, and Wages,” June 2007.
21. U.S. Census Bureau, Table H-4.
22. U.S. Census Bureau, Income, Table P-36, “Full-Time, Year-Round Workers by Median Income and Sex,” http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/data/historical/people/P36AR_2009.xls.
23. Robert Z. Lawrence, Blue-Collar Blues: Is Trade to Blame for Rising U.S. Income Inequality? Policy Analyses in International Economics 85 (Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2008), 3.
24. Florence Jaumotte and Irina Tytell, “The Globalization of Labor,” chapter 5 in IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2007, 166.
25. Dani Rodrik's weblog, “A New Mainstream Consensus on Trade and Wages?,” June 14, 2007, http://rodrik.typepad.com/dani_rodriks_weblog/2007/06/a_new_mainstrea.html.
26. Lawrence, Blue-Collar Blues, 7.
27. Ibid., 11.
28. Jaumotte and Tytell, “The Globalization of Labor,” 168.
29. Ibid., 179.
30. Immigration was estimated to have caused about a 0.1% annual contribution to labor's declining share of income. Jaumotte and Tytell, “The Globalization of Labor,” 187.
31. Sébastien Jean et al., “Migration in OECD Countries: Labour Market Impact and Integration Issues,” OECD Economics Department working paper no. 562, 2007.
32. Here, offshoring refers mainly to international sourcing of manufactured inputs, since offshore services still comprise a very small proportion of imports.
33. Karen E. Dynan, Douglas W. Elmendorf, and Daniel E. Sichel, “The Evolution of Household Income Volatility,” Finance and Economics Discussion series 2007-61, 2007.
34. Henry S. Farber, “Job Loss and the Decline in Job Security in the United States,” Princeton University Industrial Relations Section working paper 520, July 2007 (rev. September 11, 2007).
35. Lori G. Kletzer, “Globalization and Job Loss, from Manufacturing to Services,” Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Economic Perspectives 2Q 2005, and Jagdish Bhagwati, “Trade and Wages: Choosing Among Alternative Explanations,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Economic Policy Review, January 1995.
36. Dani Rodrik, Has Globalization Gone Too Far? (Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics, 1997), 5.
37. Giovanni S. F. Bruno, et al., “Measuring the Effect of Globalization on Labour Demand Elasticity: An Empirical Application to OECD Countries,” KITeS, Centre for Knowledge, Internationalization and Technology Studies working paper 153, Universita Bocconi, Milano, Italy, February 2004.
38. The 2% estimate is from Ben Bernanke, Remarks to the Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, March 30, 2004, http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/Speeches/2004/20040330/default.htm. The 3% estimate is based on BLS data covering layoffs of fifty or more people and is from the Council of Economic Advisers, “The History and Future of International Trade,” 2006 Economic Report of the President (Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 2006), 161.
39. Lori G. Kletzer, Imports, Exports, and Jobs: What Does Trade Mean for Employment and Job Loss? (Kalamazoo, MI: W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, 2002), 103–130.
40. See Lawrence, Blue-Collar Blues, 69.
41. OECD, “Policy Brief: Globalisation, Jobs, and Wages.”
42. Kevin Casas-Zamora, “Why the Discomfort over Free Trade,” YaleGlobal, 12 (September 2008).
43. Maxim Pinkovskiy and Xavier Sala-i-Martin, “Parametric Estimations of the World Distribution of Income,” NBER working paper 15433, October 2009.
44. Susan Chun Zhu and Daniel Trefler, “Trade and Inequality in Developing Countries: A General Equilibrium Analysis,” Journal of International Economics 65 (2005): 21–48.
45. Simon Kuznets, “Economic Growth and Income Inequality,” American Economic Review 45, no. 1 (March 1955): 1–28.
46. See Gary S. Fields, Distribution and Development: A New Look at the Developing World (New York: Russell Sage Foundation and Cambridge, MA and London: MIT Press, 2001), 35–72.
47. George J. Church, “1985: Deng Xiaoping,” Time, January 6, 1986, http://www.time.com/time/subscriber/personoftheyear/archive/stories/1985.html.
48. OECD, “Policy Brief: Economic Survey of China 2010,” February 2010, http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/22/19/44468723.pdf.
49. Randall Morck, ed., Concentrated Corporate Ownership (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2000), 323.
50. Jonathan Katz, “With Cheap Food Imports, Haiti Can't Feed Itself,” Huffington Post, March 20, 2010, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/03/20/with-cheap-food-imports-h_n_507228.html.
51. Josiane Georges, “Trade and the Disappearance of Haitian Rice,” Ted Case Studies 725, June 2004.
52. Bill Clinton, “We Made a Devil's Bargain,” interview with Kim Ives, Democracy Now, April 1, 2010, http://www.democracynow.org/2010/4/1/clinton_rice.
53. Bradford DeLong, “Barack Obama Does Something Really Stupid: Tire Tariffs,” Grasping Reality with Both Hands weblog, September 13, 2009, http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2009/09/barack-obama-does-something-really-stupid-tire-tariffs.html.
54. Gary Clyde Hufbauer, “Surveying the Costs of Protection: A Partial Equilibrium Approach,” in Jeffrey J. Schott, ed., The World Trading System: Challenges Ahead (Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics, 1996), 27–40.
55. Gary C. Hufbauer and Kimberly Ann Elliott, Measuring the Costs of Protectionism in the United States (Washington DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics, January 1994), cited in William J. Baumol and Alan S. Blinder, eds., Macroeconomics: Principles and Policy (Cincinnati, OH: South-Western College Publishing, 2007).
56. Council of Economic Advisers, “The History and Future of International Trade,” 157.
57. Center for Global Development, “Global Trade, Jobs, and Labor Standards,” Rich World, Poor World: A Guide to Global Development (series), June 16, 2006.
58. Chris Edwards, “The Sugar Racket,” CATO Institute Tax & Budget Bulletin 46, June 2007.
59. Sascha O. Becker and Marc-Andreas Muendler, “The Effect of FDI on Job Security,” The B. E. Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy 8, no. 1 (2008): article 8.
60. See Andrew E. Clark and Andrew J. Oswald, “Satisfaction and Comparison Income,” Journal of Public Economics 61, no. 3 (1996): 359–381; Rafael Di Tella, R. MacCulloch, and A. Oswald, “Preferences over Inflation and Unemployment: Evidence from Surveys of Happiness,” The American Economic Review 91, no. 1 (2001): 335–341.
61. Marcus Eliason and Donald Storrie, “Does Job Loss Shorten Life?” working papers in Economics 153, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University, Sweden, December 2004.
62. Lori Kletzer, “Trade-related Job Loss and Wage Insurance: A Synthetic Review,” Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, working paper series 11300, June 1, 2003.
Chapter Ten
1. See http://www.globalissues.org/article/75/world-military-spending#WorldMilitarySpending.
2. Estimates of the costs of these wars range from a few hundred billion dollars to more than two trillion dollars. See http://www.cfr.org/publication/15404/iraq_afghanistan_and_the_us_economy.html.
3. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, “Multinational Corporations in World Development,” (1973) 130–133.
4. 2010 Fortune Global 500, http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/global500/2010/.
5. Patrick Low, Marcelo Olarreaga, and Javier Suarez, “Does Globalization Cause a Higher Concentration of International Trade and Investment Flows?” World Trade Organization Economic Research and Analysis Division, staff working paper ERAD-98-08, August 1998.
6. The data for 1820 are drawn from Angus Maddison, The World Economy: Historical Statistics (OECD, 2003), 261; the data for the current period (for 2008) are from the World Bank, World Development Indicators; the projections for 2050 are from the Goldman Sachs report “The N-11: More Than an Acronym,” Global Economics Paper 153, March 28, 2007.
7. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, World Investment Report 2010, 16.
8. Based on UNCTAD, “The world`s top 100 non-financial TNCs, ranked by foreign assets, 2008,” World Investment Report, 2010, sales of the largest transnational companies amounted to $8.4 trillion. World GDP in 2008 has been estimated by multiple sources at roughly $58 trillion dollars.
9. Dani Rodrik, “Goodbye Washington Consensus, Hello Washington Confusion? A Review of the World Bank's Economic Growth in the 1990s: Learning from a Decade of Reform,” Journal of Economic Literature 44, no. 4 (December 2006), 973–987.
10. See Dani Rodrik, One Economics, Many Recipes: Globalization, Institutions, and Economic Growth (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2007), chapter 7.
11. Thomas Friedman, The Lexus and the Olive Tree (New York: Anchor Books, 2000), 106. For a mostly laudatory review of Friedman's book, see Barry Eichengreen, “One Economy, Ready or Not: Thomas Friedman's Jaunt Through Globalization,” Foreign Affairs, May/ June 1999.
12. Willem Adema and Maxime Ladaique, “How Expensive Is the Welfare State?: Gross and Net Indicators in the OECD Social Expenditure Database (SOCX),” OECD Social, Employment and Migration working papers no. 92, November 2009.
13. Lobbying database, http://www.opensecrets.org/lobby/index.php.
14. Geoffrey Garrett and Deborah Mitchell, “Globalization, Government Spending, and Taxation in the OECD,” European Journal of Political Research 39 (2001): 145–177.
15. Eunyoung Ha, “Globalization, Veto Players, and Welfare Spending,” Comparative Political Studies 41, no. 6 (June 2008): 786–813.