The Plan

by John Francis Kinsella

December began with an incident that went almost unremarked by the larger world struggling to come to terms with its own economic problems. An anonymous Tunisian street vendor set himself on fire in the small village of Sidi Bouzid in a desperate protest against the confiscation of his wares by corrupt officials. Elsewhere, as the year came to a close, what had started as a US sub-prime crisis was rapidly morphing into a fully-fledged sovereign debt crisis, threatening to drag Europe into the maelstrom and the rest of the world with it.

  Amongst those responsible were Bush and Blair, now retired from the world political scene, reaping the benefits of their years in power; the pay off, richly rewarded lecture tours, highly paid positions on the boards of oil companies. Behind them they had left a legacy that was to mark the world for years if not decades to come.

  The unfinished Iraq War had left a lasting mark on modern history and the fall out threatened to engulf the Middle East, opposing Iran on the northern shores of the Gulf and the Western surrogates to the south, amongst them Israel. Certain called for Bush and Blair to face prosecution at the International Criminal Court in the Hague for having misled the world with their lies of weapons of mass destruction.

  Europe was however more concerned with its own immediate problems, where even Europhiles, Fitzwilliams and Kennedy amongst them, criticised numerous aspects of the Union’s structure and not the least the Eurozone. Explaining to their detractors their opinions were the healthy sign of a democratic system. The bankers knew that Ireland without the euro would have gone under.

  Fitzwilliams and his bank functioned in a country that was, to a great extent anti-European, for many reasons; the first being the threat to the City from a powerful core at the centre of the Eurozone, and secondly for historical reasons that went further back than the 19th century balance of power.

  For the two bankers Europe was too big to fail, and as their partner Tarasov never ceased to underline, the collapse of the Soviet Union bore lessons that Europe’s politicians should heed if they were to avoid a disastrous debacle.

  Three decades previously, on New Year’s Day, 1992, the world woke up to discover the Soviet Union no longer existed. For those in the West whose lives had been influenced by the Cold War, the collapse of the only other superpower was an event of unbelievable magnitude. Of course the Soviets had been struggling through a long drawn out economic crisis, trying to come to terms with a changing world, where modern communications prevented them from hiding the truth from their fellow comrades.

  It was Europe's turn to be confronted with a grave crisis, though the Union was very far from being terminally ill. If the political will was there, then the euro would survive. It would require a leader, a strong leader to show the way. That leader could not come from Britain, given its barely hidden disguised interest in the failure of the euro project. France’s Sarkozy was not a candidate; his position was undermined by a large part of the left wing French establishment. That left Angela Merkel and the fear of a German led Europe.

  ‘I for one do not see a pre-1939 situation, or even a 1914 situation for that matter!’ Francis told his friends. ‘The EU is there is because previous models failed, not the other way around! A banking business that spans Europe is better than one that spans the UK!’

  ‘Isn’t it better to be in the US, or in Hong Kong?’ asked Pat.

  ‘People always look at what appears to be the easy way, in that I mean language,’ replied Francis. ‘Of course New York offers vast opportunities, but tell, me which British or European bank has made a lasting success in the USA, or why HSBC quit Hong Kong.’

  ‘That’s why we joined forces with Sergei,’ said Fitzwilliams nodding to Tarasov.

  ‘Anyway, the majority of Brits are now anti-EU.’

  ‘Most of them haven’t the least idea of the implications of leaving Europe. We can’t put the clock back given the forces driving global and regional integration.’

  ‘Geographically, historically and economically the UK is part of Europe. The idea they can somehow manipulate the Commonwealth to their own need is ridiculous. India will soon have a population of over one and a half billion, many of whom would like to settle down here, Australia is looking to East Asia, and Canada is bound to the US. What do we have to offer them?’

  Francis laughed.

  ‘You’re right Michael, it won’t be us selling Jaguars to India, but India selling Jaguars to us.’

  ‘Here in the UK, the number of unskilled, unqualified, no hope communities is growing. But at the same time the inverse is happening in India. Bangalore, India’s Silicon Valley, has a population of two million and is growing at a rate of fifteen percent a year. As regards China, it’s on the fast track to overtaking us in just about every technical and manufacturing domain.

  ‘To make matters worse we’re educating them, our universities are overflowing with Chinese and other Asian students. British short term leaders and politicians, who hike the cost of university education for our young people puff, their chest out in pride when they talk of the excellence of British higher education, forgetting we’re educating those who will dominate us.’

  ‘In Russia we have vast natural resources oil, gas, metals and timber,’ remarked Tarasov. ‘But we lack a developed service industry, and between us,’ he continued lowering his voice, ‘our investment environment depends on the whims of the Kremlin, without the support of Putin you can forget about developing any serious business in Russia.’

  ‘That’s why the City is our raison d’être Sergei,’ Fitzwilliams remarked. ‘It offers a safe haven. Just by the sheer scale of the business conducted here it’s an extraordinary source of wealth. It’s a vital and growing part of British economy, but any idea of abandoning Europe would be like abandoning our own future.

  ‘Well said Michael,’ said Kennedy enthusiastically.

  Fitzwilliams excused himself and disappeared with Tarasov, leaving the others continue their discussion over lunch. Pat for one was relieved to escape Fitzwilliams’ dominant shadow and took the opportunity to question Francis about China and more in particular what the future held for them.

  ‘The future of China? How the world will look twenty, thirty or more years from now?’

  ‘For example.’

  ‘Well it wouldn’t be a surprise to imagine China dominating it, economically and politically.’

  ‘In the world where I lived when I was a kid, back in Limerick that was unimaginable. We prayed for China, or was it Russia. In any case they were beyond the pale, poor and oppressed, no-hopers, basket cases.’

  ‘The only thing that seems certain is the relative decline of the West. We have always seen the vast populations of China and India as a terrible burden, but now it seems they are a strength. The source of economic growth. The same goes for the rest of the developing world.’

  ‘Are we’re shrinking…relatively speaking, I mean economically and population wise.’

  ‘That’s right Pat…shrinking.’

  ‘Unless we get our game together, by that I mean Europe.’

  ‘For the UK that seems more and more problematical.’

  ‘It’s a pity, by 2050, the population of the UK will reach one hundred million, that’s not far off the double today’s, and I suppose the same thing will happen in the rest of Europe, one billion Europeans, not so small eh!’

  ‘A third of China and India combined, forgetting Africa and South America. Imagine China with a per capita GDP seven times that of today.’

  ‘Sounds like a good place to do business!’

  ‘For myself,’ said Barton, ‘I wouldn’t bet on India. As for the rest remember what happened to Japan!’

  Chapter 82 ...NOT ALL DARK CLOUDS