Just two seconds
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Predatory animals usually devour prey in order to convert flesh into fuel. Most human predators, however, seek power, not food. To destroy or damage something is to take its power. This applies equally to a political movement, a government, a campaign, a career, a performance, a fortune, or a religion. To push a pie into the face of the world's richest man is to take his power, if only for a moment.
When viewed as a contest between predator and prey, assassination looks much like predation in nature: The surprise, the sudden movement, the burst of hostile energy, the jerky resistance, the wish to escape. Most often, there's no real chase; the predator seems to come from nowhere and from everywhere at the same time. Even the most impressive defense systems, even those that could be lethal to the attacker if deployed, usually don't get deployed because there just isn't enough time.
If an animal taken by a predator could speak after the fact, he'd likely tell us the same thing we hear after an assassination: "It all happened so fast; there wasn't time to do anything." But with man, there usually is.
Time is the central theme of this book, and we are committed to respecting yours. Accordingly, this is a book of just five chapters -- five chapters that explore five seconds or less. Though our research netted plenty of interesting stories, insights, and ideas (some of which are presented in the Compendium and Appendices), here for easy reference is a brief look at the essential lessons covered in the next four chapters:
Essential Lesson of Chapter Two ("Time"):
Attackers are profoundly handicapped by time, and ready protectors who are in position to respond can prevail, almost always.
See attacks as races. You'll win if you start at roughly the same place as your opponent, and at the same time as your opponent (or as close in time as possible). When attackers and protectors are on an even playing field, protectors will almost always prevail.
Time is the thread that weaves together every chapter and every story in this book. For example, in the chapter entitled "Space," about location and distance, the true relevance of being close to an attacker or close to your protectee is that your proximity reduces the time it takes to reach him. You'll learn the welcome news that the physics of attack favors protectors. Just knowing this fact can help protectors prevail.
Essential Lessons of Chapter Three ("Mind"):
All attacks happen at the same time: Now. If you intend to meet the attack, you must be there mentally, not just physically.
The information and concepts in this book are intended to prepare your mind to be present during the one and only time in which anyone can possibly pose a threat: the present, Now. That's also the only time in which a protector can possibly do anything relevant to safety. Everything that happens, happens now. And yet most of our mental energy is spent (or misspent) on things that happened long ago, things that haven't happened yet, and things that never will. Memory is a fine servant, but a terrible master. For protectors, thinking about nearly anything that occurred a moment before now becomes as destructive to effectiveness as worrying about something that happened a decade ago.
Essential Lessons of Chapter Four ("Space"):
Every location contains inherent advantages and disadvantages; whatever hand you are dealt can be improved by advance work, set-up, and positioning.
For most types of attack, 25-feet of space between attacker and target just about assures the protectee's survival.
Essential Lesson of Chapter Five ("See"):
In every environment, identify and assess the best suspects. They are always there.
During protective assignments, you are not always presented with someone behaving in a way that is an obvious call for your attention. Too many bodyguards feel that their job is to wait until an alarming behavior presents itself. But as history makes clear, waiting is not an effective strategy in protective work. Stay present to your task by choosing the best suspects from the people in the protectee's environment -- and then assume the position and readiness to respond in the event of alarming action.
If you create suspects, even those with little obvious basis will help you stay connected to your mission and to the Now. You will be observing people through the lens most likely to focus on danger if it is there. Most people you select as suspects will not, of course, turn out to be attackers, but in the event of an actual attack, it's better to be focused on someone three people away from the attacker than to be three months away, in mental time-travel. This truth, and every concept in the book, can bring benefit to all warriors, whether in protection or police work, security, personal self-defense, or the military.
The training academy at Gavin de Becker Associates teaches the acronym LADDER to describe the elements required for effective protection:
LADDER
Logistics
Advance
Distance
Deterrence
Evacuation
Response
Logistics-Ensure the ability to move without interference or delay. A protectee who is able to keep moving makes a more difficult target for attackers, and a less inviting target for those considering attack.
Advance-Have detailed knowledge of sites, routes, resources, emergency locations, schedules, known adversaries, likely occurrences; make this knowledge available to all who need it, and use this knowledge to enhance every environment the protectee will pass through.
Distance-Establish and maintain the maximum practical distance from protectee to public; establish and maintain the minimum practical distance from protector to protectee; establish and maintain the minimum practical distance from protector to the closest members of the public.
Deterrence-Display protectors' highest readiness and effectiveness at all times.
Evacuation-Establish and maintain exit routes unblocked at all times.
Response-Maintain readiness and the highest ability to respond to attack or hazard at all times.
LADDER serves as a checklist for protectors, a reminder to constantly confirm that each element of effective protection is in place. Though this book is about just the last rung in the ladder -- Response to Attack -- you'll see that studying it brings insights that are relevant to all other aspects of protection. By devoting a whole book to the few seconds during which attacks occur, we don't mean to imply that being able to respond to attacks is the most important aspect of protection. That would be like teaching pilots how to deploy the landing gear, and not teaching anything else. Protectors, like pilots, must learn it all, and it's clear that advance work, logistics, weapons screening, threat assessment, protective intelligence, and counter-surveillance are all more likely to favorably influence safety than the ability to respond effectively at the moment of an attack. If anything, the study of attacks makes clear that nobody wants survival to rely entirely upon what occurs during just a few seconds.
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[?] Two excellent resources for further study on mental preparation are Lt. Col. Dave Grossman's book, On Combat, and Bruce Siddle's Sharpening the Warrior's Edge.
"I'm as important as the start of WWI. I just need the little opening, and a second of time."
Arthur Bremer, shooter of presidential candidate George Wallace
Time Chapter 2
Essential Lesson of this Chapter:
Attackers are profoundly handicapped by time, and ready protectors who are in position to respond can prevail, almost always.
Imagine you are a bodyguard about to be profoundly tested. In your peripheral vision to the right, you can see the outline of your protectee. But your attention is drawn 15 feet to your left, to an athletic-looking man in a sports coat. There are a few people milling about behind him, but they are minor details because as surely as you've ever known anything, you know this man is about to draw a weapon. And you know your protectee is his target.
Though he's trying to appear casual, you catch him looking directly at you for an instant. In that instant, a thousand details fly back and forth between the two of you like messengers with urgen
t news. This simultaneous mutual assessment of adversaries has been refined over millions of years, with outcome determined not just by strength or size, but also by a precise recipe of guile, timing, speed, intellect, intuition, and commitment.
You find yourself thinking about what you'll do when the weapon is drawn, which you absolutely know is about to happen. If only you were closer to him than 15 feet, you think. It would make sense to move closer to him right now, you think. You think, you think -- realizing you are thinking rather than acting, thinking about being closer rather than being closer -- but something keeps you rooted where you are.
You know your protectee won't be able to move out of harm's way -- and the very next thing you know is that a gun is firing, a gun that has appeared from beneath that man's coat.
In just one second, your heart rate has jumped to 150 beats per minute, pumping blood to the muscles that move you across the 15 feet you must travel. You collide with the shooter's arm and shoulder, pushing the weapon downward. The gun continues to fire as you both tumble to the floor. Everyone present watches with perfect attention, and they'll all later agree that you moved as fast as anyone could have. They'll point out that had you reacted any slower, the shooter would have done more damage. That observation hardly matters now, however, as everyone can see a clean hole in your protectee's head.
You now know that in the time it takes to read this sentence up to this point, most attacks have begun and ended.
In this instance, you're about to get something few protectors get after successful attacks: another chance. You help the shooter to his feet, hand him back his gun, and you both resume your positions standing on the marked floor. Only this time you're just 7 feet apart instead of 15 -- and for that reason, when the exercise is repeated, you have a viable chance of reaching the shooter before his bullets can reach the target.
The exercise is called TAD, short for Time And Distance. It's undertaken hundreds of times each year in our firm's training academy. The majority of attacks on public figures in America are launched from less than 25 feet, with handguns, but no matter what the weapon or the attack strategy, most of TAD's lessons about protector response will apply. Because insights drawn from TAD will appear throughout the book, here's a detailed description of the exercise:
The student in the role of attacker is given a real handgun loaded with six plastic Simunition(r) rounds. He is placed 20 feet in front of the "protectee," a man-sized cardboard cutout. He is told to try to surprise the protector by drawing and firing as quickly as possible, and as many times as possible. "Your mission is to get as many shots as you can into the target before the protector reaches you and disrupts your aim."
The student selected for the role of protector is told, "Within 30 seconds, the suspect will draw the weapon and fire. Your mission is to recognize when it's happening and disrupt the attacker's aim sufficiently that he cannot get any rounds into your protectee."
TAD lifts out one slice of the attack pie and studies it very closely, over and over again. Because TAD protectors know that any sudden movement is certain to be the Moment of Commitment, there is nothing to think about before reaching the Moment of Recognition, and there is no adverse consequence to being wrong. Thus, we have subtracted the time normally needed to assess whether an attack is underway. By removing the need to think about anything, we are able to learn how the bodies of attacker and protector operate most effectively, and how much time it takes to do so.
When there's no need to assess anything, it boils down to a race between action and reaction, a physical contest between a fully informed and capable attacker (who must draw, aim, and fire with some accuracy), and a fully informed and capable protector (who must reach the attacker and disrupt accuracy).
The attacker starts the race by drawing the weapon, and in so doing proves the truth of the adage "Action is quicker than reaction." However, even with the disadvantage of going second, protectors who are close enough to the attacker (and thus don't need to use precious time covering distance) are able to prevent the attacker from getting rounds into the protectee, in test after test after test. In other words, when it's a contest between attacker action and protector reaction, capable protectors can win almost always.
There's another encouraging lesson from TAD exercises: In hundreds of simulated attacks at our academy, the man in the role of attacker was our Chief Firearms Instructor. Among many other distinctions, he is an NRA Law Enforcement Tactical Handgun Instructor. He served on a classified U.S. Military team tasked with counter-terrorist missions. The unit had a very demanding standard of shooting skills, with training that often involved firing a thousand rounds per man per day. Even though he is a far more capable shooter than most real-world attackers you are likely to encounter, properly positioned and prepared protectors can defeat him, time and time again. "Properly positioned" is the key lesson here.
To get the fullest picture of what TAD teaches, here's a breakdown of the entire exercise:
Round One:
The protector stands 15 feet from the attacker. He is permitted to move as soon as he observes some movement that indicates an attack is underway. Then, while yelling "Gun!" he can charge the attacker and disrupt aim by colliding with arm or shoulder or body or head -- whatever he feels will most efficiently end the shooter's ability to hit the target.
Round Two:
Same rules, but the protector is 7 feet from the attacker.
Round Three:
Same rules, but the protector stands as close to the attacker as he or she chooses (within arm's reach).
Round Four:
The protector again stands within arm's reach of the attacker, only this time the protector is told: "You can pre-position your hands and arms so as to respond as quickly as possible."
We usually run the TAD exercise twice: First, with the protector on the side the attacker draws from (the side of his dominant hand), and the second time with the protector on the side of the attacker's non-dominant hand.
After this series of attack exercises, we repeat the rounds with another protector added to the scene. This protector is near the protectee. His job is to block the protectee against being shot or move the protectee as soon as the attack is recognized. (More on this below.)
After every round, instructors count the number of shots fired, the number of shots that hit the target, and the location of the shots on the target (head, center mass, lower body).
Because of our focus on the distance between attacker and protector (0, 7, and 15 feet), you might think that the lessons of the exercise center solely on distance. However, these distances are relevant only for the time they take to be traversed. If the distance is too great, you can't cross it quickly enough -- and if there is no distance at all (i.e., zero feet), the attacker can't draw and shoot quickly enough. It's still all about time.
When we study actual assassination attempts, it's often difficult to determine precisely why an attack failed. Was it the intervention of protectors or was it a failure by the attacker, such as poor timing, inaccuracy, etc.? When an attack fails in TAD, however, we know it is entirely because of protector intervention, all other influences having been removed.
Thus, TAD provides an excellent opportunity to assess which physical strategies are most associated with protector success and which are most associated with attacker success. In TAD, protector success means that no bullets hit the protectee anywhere, i.e., there is no tissue damage. Attacker success means that one or more bullets hit the protectee, i.e., there is tissue damage. So a Protector success rate of 45% means that in 45% of the attempts, the protectee is unharmed.
Below are the statistical results of typical TAD exercises from 15, 7, and 0 feet.
Protector at 15 Feet
Attempts from 15 Feet on this Particular Day 108
Shots Fired 306
Shots Missed (Protectee Not Injured) 217
Protectee Injured 89
Average Number of Shots Before Intervention 2.83
Attacker Success Rate (Any Injury) 82%
Protector Success Rate (No Injuries) 18%
Protector at 7 Feet
Attempts from 7 Feet on this Particular Day 108
Shots Fired 164
Shots Missed (Protectee Not Injured) 105
Protectee Injured 59
Average Number of Shots Before Intervention 1.5
Attacker Success Rate (Any Injury) 55%
Protector Success Rate (No Injuries) 45%
Protector at 0 Feet
Attempts from 0 Feet on this Particular Day 105
Shots Fired 26
Shots Missed (Protectee Not Injured) 24
Protectee Injured 2
Average Number of Shots Before Intervention .25
Attacker Success Rate (Any Injury) 2%
Protector Success Rate (No Injuries) 98%
Here, in the simplest terms, is what TAD teaches:
When the protector is 15 feet from the attacker, there's not much contest; the attacker is likely to prevail.
At 7 feet, there's a contest; either person could prevail.
At zero feet (arm's reach), there's no contest -- protectors will almost always prevail.
Each round of the TAD exercise offers different lessons:
Round One (protector positioned 15 feet from attacker) teaches that the five steps it takes to reach the shooter take a lot of time when you're racing against gunfire. Every person who goes through this training develops a lasting respect for those 15 feet.