Just two seconds

by Gavin De Becker; Thomas A. Taylor; Jeff Marquart

  Range: Range refers to the distance between attacker and target, and applies mostly to firearms attacks. Some news reports say an attack occurred at close range or point blank range, but most don't provide specific range information. Accordingly, in cases offering limited source material, we made deductions based upon the attack situation. For example, sniper attacks can be assumed to have been launched from greater than 25 feet, and an attack from a motorcycle that drives up to the target's car can be assumed to have been launched from less than 25 feet.

  Duration: Though printed media reports rarely address the issue of duration, there is often definitive information (video or film of an incident, witness reports, police reports, court summaries, etc). In cases offering no decisive source material and yet there was a basis for deduction, we estimated. For example, if there was one shot fired at a target surrounded by bodyguards, we feel comfortable counting the attack as having occurred in less than 5 seconds. Incidents in which there were several gunmen and many rounds fired, or a gun battle, might be counted as having occurred over more than 5 seconds. In whatever way one might interpret the information, attacks that went on for more than one minute are very rare. One example is the attack on Truman at Blair House, and another is the attack on Sadat, which lasted several minutes, even though Sadat was mortally wounded in the first few seconds. Throughout the Compendium cases and analysis, it emerges that a minute is an eternity in protective work. Clearly, a foundational result of this Compendium is that most (more than 80%) successful attacks in the US are over in less than 5 seconds.

  Situation: In the conclusions for this category, we describe the numbers of attacks near homes and offices, as well as attacks in or around cars. In many cases a report said the protectee was shot in his front yard or outside his office. It's possible he was moving to or from his car, but unless that information was specifically available, it's not counted as a car-related incident. Similarly, many attacks occurred while the protectee was in his car, and happened also to be outside his home or workplace. There is, accordingly, some overlap when it comes to location and situation, and we've applied our best judgment when selecting the category for each case.

  "The dance of battle is always played to the same impatient rhythm. What begins in a surge of violent motion is always reduced to the perfectly still."

  Sun Tzu

  Conclusions

  Arising From Analysis of the Statistics

  Successful Attacks Within the U.S.

  (The cases analyzed for this category appear in Section 1A.)

  Number: We analyzed 65 attacks in which a public figure was killed or injured within the United States. (Not all chose to have protectors with them.)

  Status of Target: These 65 incidents involved 26% movie/sports/media celebrities; 25% court officials; 18% other national figures; 9% state, county, or local officials; 8% business executives; 6% other government officials; 5% members of Congress; 3% heads of state. Considering all attacks, 48% of the targets were politicians/government officials.

  Mortality: 65% of the targets were killed, and 35% were injured.

  Assailants: 86% involved a single assailant, 14% involved more than one assailant.

  Weapon: 49% involved handguns, 29% involved long guns (rifle, assault weapon, submachine gun), 15% involved explosive devices (bombs, rockets, etc.), 5% involved knives or edged weapons, and 2% involved other weapons (fists). Combining handguns and long guns, 78% of the attacks involved firearms. Of the 10 explosive devices, 70% were delivered through the mail.

  Range: In the incidents involving firearms, 76% occurred at close range (fewer than 25 feet), and only 24% were launched from more than 25 feet. The longest range was 263 feet.

  Duration: In the incidents involving firearms and knives, the overwhelming majority of the attacks, 85%, were over within five seconds, and 15% of the attacks lasted longer than five seconds.

  Situation: 51% of the attacks were carried out indoors, and 49% occurred outdoors. In addition, 57% of the attacks occurred at the target's home or office, 28% occurred while the target was moving to or from a vehicle or a building (arrivals and departures), and 14% occurred while the target was seated in or riding in a car. Attacks in or around vehicles, plus arrival/departure situations, accounted for 42% of the attacks.

  STARS: In only 5% of the cases was it clear that some benefit arose from protector action or strategies during the attack. Among these few cases in which protector actions or strategies made an important and favorable influence on safety, the benefit arose about a third of the time from protector action after the incident. Approximately two-thirds of the time, the benefit resulted from direct protector action at the scene of the incident.

  Conclusion: Recent attacks on public figures within the United States, in which the target was killed or injured, have resulted in more deaths than injuries. The most targeted groups were movie/sports/media celebrities, followed by court officials, and other national figures. Targets were most often attacked by a single male assailant using a firearm. The preferred weapon was a handgun and the attack was most often launched from fewer than 25 feet. Nearly all of the attacks were over in less than five seconds. Half of the attacks occurred indoors and half outdoors. More than half of the attacks were carried out at the target's home or office. The most dangerous situations are when the target is riding in a car, or moving between a car and building, referred to as "arrival/departure situations."

  Successful Attacks Outside the U.S.

  (The cases analyzed for this category appear in Section 1B.)

  Number: We analyzed 371 attacks in which a public figure was killed or injured outside the United States. (Not all chose to have protectors with them.)

  Status of Target: The 371 incidents involved 25% other government officials; 21% other national figures; 14% state, county, or local officials; 13% heads of state; 12% members of Congress/Parliament; 9% court officials; 5% business executives; and 2% movie/sports/media celebrities. Considering all attacks in this category, 72% of the targets were politicians/government officials.

  Mortality: 74% of the targets were killed, and 26% were injured.

  Assailants: 59% involved more than one assailant and 41% involved a single assailant.

  Weapon: 46% involved long guns (rifle, assault weapon, submachine gun); 27% involved explosive devices (bombs, rockets, etc.), 20% involved handguns, 5% involved knives or edged weapons, and 1% involved other weapons (3 poison, 2 blunt instruments). Combining handguns and long guns, 66% of the attacks involved firearms.

  Range: In the 245 incidents involving firearms and rockets, 71% occurred at close range (fewer than 25 feet), and only 29% were launched from more than 25 feet.

  Duration: In the 265 incidents involving firearms, knives, and blunt instruments, 71% of the attacks were over within five seconds, and 29% of the attacks lasted longer than five seconds.

  Situation: 82% occurred outdoors, and 18% of the attacks were carried out indoors. In addition, 47% occurred while the target was seated in or riding in a car, 37% of the attacks occurred at the target's home or office, and 18% occurred while the target was moving to or from a vehicle or a building (arrivals and departures). Attacks in or around vehicles, plus arrival/departure situations, accounted for 66% of the attacks.

  STARS: In only 7% of the cases was it clear that some benefit arose from protector action or strategies during the attack. Among these few cases in which protector actions or strategies clearly had an important and favorable influence on safety, the benefit arose approximately 46% of the time from direct protector action at the scene of the incident, and 54% of the time, the benefit was the result of protective strategies or resources at the scene.

  Conclusion: Recent attacks on public figures outside the United States, in which the target was killed or injured, have resulted in many more deaths than injuries. The most targeted groups were lesser government officials (such as ambassadors and cabinet ministers), followed by national leaders (such as former officials, poli
tical candidates, and religious leaders). Note that these targets are highly recognized, but less protected than heads of state. Accordingly, successful attacks are more likely, and there is less risk for attackers. Targets in this category (famous but with less protection than heads of state) bring all the benefits in terms of political statement and media attention with less risk and greater likelihood of success.

  Targets outside the United States were most often attacked by multiple assailants, using a firearm. The preferred weapon was the long gun (automatic weapons, etc.) and the attack was nearly always launched at fewer than 25 feet. The majority of the attacks were over in less than five seconds. Unlike attacks in the U.S., attacks outside the U.S. were conducted outdoors far more often than indoors. More than one third of the attacks were carried out at the target's home or office. The most dangerous situations are when the target was riding in a car, or moving between a car and a building, referred to as "arrival/departure situations."

  Successful Attacks Worldwide

  Number: We analyzed 436 attacks in which a public figure was killed or injured somewhere in the world. (Not all chose to have protectors with them.)

  Status of Target: The 436 incidents involved 22% other government officials; 21% other national figures; 13% state, county, or local officials; 11% heads of state; 11% court officials; 11% members of Congress or Parliament; 6% business executives; 5% movie/sports/media celebrities. Considering all government positions, 68% of the targets were politicians/government officials.

  Mortality: 73% of the targets were killed, and 27% were injured.

  Assailants: 52% involved more than one assailant, and 48% involved a single assailant.

  Weapon: 44% involved long guns (rifle, assault weapon, submachine gun); 25% involved explosive devices (bombs, rockets, etc.); 24% involved handguns; 5% involved knives or edged weapons, and 1% involved other weapons (3 poison, 2 blunt instrument, and 1 fists). Combining handguns and long guns, 68% of the attacks involved firearms.

  Range: In the 296 incidents involving firearms and rockets, 72% occurred at close range (fewer than 25 feet), and only 28% were launched from more than 25 feet.

  Duration: In the 319 incidents involving firearms, knives, and blunt instruments, 73% of the attacks were over within five seconds, and 27% of the attacks lasted longer than five seconds.

  Situation: 77% occurred outdoors, and 23% of the attacks were carried out indoors. In addition, 42% occurred while the target was seated in, or riding in a car, 40% of the attacks occurred at the target's home or office, 20% occurred while the target was moving to or from a vehicle or a building (arrivals and departures). Attacks in or around vehicles, including arrival/departure situations, accounted for 62% of the attacks.

  STARS: In only 6% of the cases was it clear that some benefit arose from protector action or strategies during the attack. Among these few cases in which protector actions or strategies clearly had an important and favorable influence on safety, the benefit arose approximately 4% of the time from protector action after the incident. Approximately 48% of the time, benefit resulted from direct protector action at the scene of the incident, and 48% of the time, the benefit was the result of protective strategies or resources at the scene (e.g., effective positioning, an armored car, advance arrangements, logistics, weapons detection, deterrence).

  Conclusion: Recent attacks on public figures around the world, in which the target was killed or injured, have resulted in many more deaths than injuries. The most targeted groups were other government officials (such as ambassadors and cabinet ministers), followed by national leaders (such as former officials, political candidates, and religious leaders). Note that these targets are highly recognized, but less protected than heads of state. Accordingly, successful attacks are more likely, and there is less risk for attackers. Thus, targets in this category (famous but with less protection than heads of state) bring all the benefits in terms of political statement and media attention with less risk and greater likelihood of success.

  Targets were most often attacked by multiple assailants, using a firearm. The preferred weapon was the long gun (automatic weapons, etc.) and the attack was most often launched from fewer than 25 feet. Bodyguards had little time to react, since the majority of the attacks were over in fewer than five seconds. The attacks were usually carried out outdoors. Less than one half of the attacks were conducted at the target's home or office. The most dangerous situations are when the target is riding in a car, or moving between a car and a building, referred to as "arrival/departure situations."

  Unsuccessful Attacks Within the U.S.

  (The cases analyzed for this category appear in Section 1C.)

  Number: We analyzed 25 incidents in which a public figure within the United States was attacked, and escaped unharmed. (Others may have been harmed during incidents discussed in this section.)

  Status of Target: The 25 incidents involved 32% heads of state; 24% members of Congress; 24% state, county, or local officials; 8% court officials; 8% movie/sports/media celebrities; 4% business executives. In 88% of the incidents, the target was a government official.

  Mortality: None of the public figures were injured.

  Assailants: 88% had only one assailant, and in 12% of the attacks, there was likely more than one assailant.

  Weapon: 40% involved handguns, 24% involved explosive devices, 16% involved another weapon (1 airplane, 1 matches, and 2 ricin), 12% involved long guns (rifle, assault weapon, submachine gun), 8% involved knives or edged weapons. Combining handguns and long guns, 52% of the attacks involved firearms. Of the 9 incidents involving bombs, ricin, and matches, 55.5% of these weapons were delivered in the mail.

  Range: In the 13 attacks involving firearms, 69% were launched from more than 25 feet, and 31% occurred at close range (fewer than 25 feet).

  Duration: In the 15 attacks involving firearms and knives, 67% were over in less than five seconds, and 33% of the attacks lasted longer than five seconds.

  Situation: 52% of the attacks occurred indoors, and 48% occurred outdoors. In addition, 80% of the attacks occurred at the target's home or office, 4% occurred while the target was moving to or from a vehicle or a building (arrivals and departures), and 4% occurred while the target was seated in or riding in a vehicle. Attacks in or around vehicles, including arrival/departure situations, accounted for 8% of the attacks.

  STARS: In 40% of the cases it was clear that some benefit arose from protector action or strategies during the attack. Among these cases in which protector actions or strategies clearly had an important and favorable influence on safety, the benefit arose approximately 40% of the time from direct protector action at the scene of the incident, and 60% of the time, the benefit was the result of protective strategies or resources at the scene (e.g., effective positioning, an armored car, advance arrangements, logistics, weapons detection, deterrence).

  Conclusion: Recent attacks on public figures within the United States, in which the target escaped unharmed, have been rare events. Nearly all of the targeted individuals were politicians/government officials. Nearly every attack involved a lone assailant, most often armed with a firearm. The preferred weapon was a handgun, and most of the attacks were carried out from further than 25 feet, indicating that distance clearly played a role in the failure of the attack. This speaks to the benefits of effective advance work, most notably White Space, wherein protectees are afforded the benefit of distance from members of the general public while arriving and departing at events, home, work site, etc. Bodyguards had little time to react, since most of the attacks were over in fewer than five seconds. The attacks were carried out as often indoors as outdoors. Most of the attacks occurred at the target's home or office. Few of the attacks occurred while the target was in or around a vehicle, indicating that attacks carried out at these locations are most often successful, while attacks at the target's home or office are least often successful. It is apparent that at least 28% of these attacks were made unsuccessful by alert securit
y personnel and effective security responses.

  Unsuccessful Attacks Outside the U.S.

  (The cases analyzed for this category appear in Section 1D.)

  Number: We analyzed 165 attacks in which a public figure outside the United States was attacked, and escaped unharmed.

  Status of Target: The 165 attacks involved 45% heads of state (president, Pope, king, prime minister, etc.); 28% other government officials (ambassador, minister, vice president, etc.); 10% state and local officials (governor or mayor); 9% national figures (first lady, political official, etc.); 4% members of Parliament; 2% court officials; 1% business executives; and 1% movie/sports/media celebrities. In 90% of the incidents, the target was a government official.

  Mortality: None of the public figures were killed or injured.

  Assailants: 53% involved a single assailant, and 47% involved more than one assailant.

  Weapon: 48% involved explosive devices (bomb, grenade); 40% involved long guns (rifle, shotgun, assault weapon); 5% involved handguns; 4% involved knives; 3% involved vehicles as weapons; and 1% involved mobs. Combining handguns and long guns, 45% of the attacks involved firearms. Of the 77 incidents involving bombs, 2.5% of these weapons were delivered in the mail.

  Range: In the 74 attacks involving firearms or rocket projectiles, 89% were launched from more than 25 feet, and only 11% occurred at close range (fewer than 25 feet). The longest distance was a rocket attack from two miles away.

  Duration: In the 81 attacks involving firearms, knives, and rocket projectiles, 62% of the attacks lasted longer than five seconds, and 38% were over in fewer than five seconds.

  Situation: 91% occurred outdoors, and 9% occurred indoors. In addition, 51% occurred while the target was seated in, or riding in a vehicle, 29% of the attacks occurred at the target's home or residence, and 4% occurred while the target was moving to or from a vehicle or a building (arrivals and departures). Considering when the target was in or around a vehicle, 55% of the attacks occurred during those situations.