Seeing Around Corners

by Rita McGrath

  some guarantee of quality: Lawrence Van Gelder, “Medallion Limits Stem from the 30’s,” New York Times, May 11, 1996, https://www.nytimes.com/1996/05/11/nyregion/medallion-limits-stem-from-the-30-s.html.

  $1.3 million by 2013: Ameena Walker, “In NYC, 139 Prized Yellow Taxi Medallions Will Hit the Auction Block,” Curbed New York, June 11, 2018, https://ny.curbed.com/2018/6/11/17450366/nyc-taxi-medallions-bankruptcy-auction.

  the customer’s point of view: Megan McArdle, “Why You Can’t Get a Taxi,” Atlantic, 2012.

  the city’s yellow cabs: Winnie Hu, “Uber, Surging Outside Manhattan, Tops Taxis in New York City,” New York Times, October 12, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/12/nyregion/uber-taxis-new-york-city.html?module=inline.

  on to its next phase: Shona Ghosh, “Underpaying Drivers Is ‘Essential’ to Uber’s Business Model, According to a New Study on Low Wages,” Business Insider, March 7, 2018, https://www.businessinsider.in/Underpaying-drivers-is-essential-to-Ubers-business-model-according-to-a-new-study-on-low-wages/articleshow/63202511.cms.

  over $2 billion: Dan Primack, “Scooter Startup Bird Is Seeking a $2 Billion Valuation,” Axios, June 12, 2018, https://www.axios.com/scooter-startup-bird-is-seeking-a-2-billion-valuation-1528813078-11187061-2a49-440c-a2e6-65e74faad5ec.html.

  “hungry tapeworm” affecting the economy: Associated Press, “Amazon, Buffett, JPMorgan Chase Tackle US Health Care Tapeworm,” Marketplace, January 30, 2018, https://www.marketplace.org/2018/01/30/health-care/amazon-buffett-jpmorgan-chase-tackle-us-health-care-tapeworm.

  world’s fifth-largest economy: “Why Is Health Care So Expensive?,” Consumer Reports, September 2014.

  “pharmacies and health plans”: “Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs) 101,” National Community Pharmacists Association, n.d., http://www.ncpa.co/pdf/leg/nov12/pbm_one_pager.pdf.

  “over the past two years”: Charley Grant, “Hidden Profits in the Prescription Drug Supply Chain,” Wall Street Journal, February 24, 2018.

  according to Pembroke Consulting: Adam J. Fein, “The Outlook for Pharmacy Benefit Management: Evolution or Disruption?” (handout, 2018 National Conference of the Pharmacy Benefit Management Institute, Palm Springs, CA, March 5, 2018), http://drugchannelsinstitute.com/files/PBMI-PBM_Outlook-Drug_Channels-Fein-Mar2018-Handouts.pdf.

  $4 in other countries: Neil Weinberg and Robert Langreth, “Drug Costs Too High? Fire the Middleman,” Bloomberg, March 3, 2017, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-03/drug-costs-too-high-fire-the-middleman.

  “‘operations and cash flows’”: Jared S. Hopkins, “Drug-Price Plan Echoes a Regulatory Remnant of Financial Crisis,” Bloomberg, May 17, 2018, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-17/drug-price-plan-echoes-a-regulatory-remnant-of-financial-crisis.

  “the discounted price”: Briana Montalvo, “Many Overpay for Prescriptions When Co-pays Are Higher Than Drug Prices: Study,” ABC News, March 15, 2018, https://abcnews.go.com/Health/overpay-prescriptions-pays-higher-drug-prices-study/story?id=53767651.

  evaluate banning it: Michael Hiltzik, “The ‘Clawback’: Another Hidden Scam Driving Up Your Prescription Prices,” Los Angeles Times, August 9, 2017, http://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-hiltzik-clawback-drugs-20170809-story.html.

  lawyers and legislators: Jacklyn Wille, “Prescription Drug Clawbacks Under Fire from Lawmakers, Lawyers,” Bloomberg, March 23, 2018, https://www.bna.com/prescription-drug-clawbacks-n57982090234/.

  10 to 25 percent waste: Todd N. Bisping, “Caterpillar Breaks New Ground Managing the Prescription Drug Supply Chain,” American Journal of Pharmacy Benefits 2, no. 2 (2010): 103–5.

  transparency in pricing: Eileen Koutnik-Fotopoulos, “Coalition Fights for Total Transparency,” Pharmacy Times, February 1, 2006.

  Brought the decision in-house: John Carroll, “Having Mined Gold in Pharmacy Deal, Caterpillar Sets Sights on Gold-Standard Therapies,” Biotechnology Healthcare 6, no. 2 (2009): 49–50.

  lower than those in 2004: Staff Report, “Bulldozing Pharmacy Benefit Managers, Caterpillar Engineers Drug Cost Savings,” Workforce, December 1, 2009, http://www.workforce.com/2009/12/01/bulldozing-pharmacy-benefit-managers-caterpillar-engineers-drug-cost-savings/.

  other parts of the economy: “Amazon Is Likely to Succeed at Healthcare and Have Lasting, Disruptive Impact: Five Scenarios Show How It Will Enter and Prevail,” Cision PR Newswire, March 26, 2018, https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/amazon-is-likely-to-succeed-at-healthcare-and-have-lasting-disruptive-impact-five-scenarios-show-how-it-will-enter-and-prevail-300619075.html.

  5. What Must Be True? Creating a Plan to Learn Fast

  “disconfirm their beliefs”: “Jeff Bezos: People Who Are Right a Lot Listen a Lot,” Conversation Agent, n.d., https://www.conversationagent.com/2016/11/jpeople-who-are-right-a-lot-listen-a-lot.html.

  written about extensively elsewhere: Rita Gunther McGrath and Ian C. MacMillan, Discovery-Driven Growth: A Breakthrough Process to Reduce Risk and Seize Opportunity (Boston: Harvard Business Review Press, 2009).

  “hold strong opinions weakly”: Paul Saffo, “Six Rules for Effective Forecasting,” Harvard Business Review, July–August 2007.

  “little bets”: Peter Sims, Little Bets: How Breakthrough Ideas Emerge from Small Discoveries, repr. ed. (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2013).

  worth to us: McGrath and MacMillan, Discovery-Driven Growth.

  “the reverse is fragile”: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder (New York: Random House, 2012).

  so clearly explained: Pierre Leroy and Ryan P. McManus, “Value Creation and Corporate Survival in the Digital Revolution,” Venture Lab, July 12, 2016, http://theventurelab.blogspot.com/2016/07/value-creation-and-corporate-survival.html; Ryan P. McManus, “Understanding the Past, Present, and Future of the Digital Revolution,” BoardTalk (blog), NACD, September 26, 2017, https://blog.nacdonline.org/posts/digital-past-present-future.

  the ensuing dot-com crash: Douglas Galbi, “U.S. Annual Advertising Spending Since 1919,” Galbi Think!, September 14, 2008, https://www.galbithink.org/ad-spending.htm.

  $70 million in revenue: Thomas Bagshaw, “The Evolution of Google AdWords—A $38 Billion Advertising Platform,” WordStream (blog), April 3, 2015, https://www.wordstream.com/blog/ws/2012/06/05/evolution-of-adwords.

  a small surcharge: Elisa Gabbert, “How Does the AdWords Auction Work? [Infographic],” WordStream (blog), July 27, 2018, https://www.wordstream.com/blog/ws/2011/11/16/how-adwords-works.

  likely to have seen the ad: John E. Lincoln, “How Does Pay-Per-Click Work?,” Ignite Visibility, 2019, https://ignitevisibility.com/how-does-ppc-work/.

  $50 billion in 2017: Suzanne Vranica and Jack Marshall, “Plummeting Newspaper Ad Revenue Sparks New Wave of Changes,” Wall Street Journal, October 20, 2016, https://www.wsj.com/articles/plummeting-newspaper-ad-revenue-sparks-new-wave-of-changes-1476955801.

  pull the plug on it: Barry M. Staw, “Knee-Deep in the Big Muddy—A Study of Escalating Commitment to a Chosen Course of Action,” Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 16, no. 1(1976): 27.

  show for that expenditure: “BBC Was ‘Complacent’ over Failed £100m IT Project,” BBC News, April 10, 2014, https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-26963723.

  “completely tapeless” production workflows: Peter Brightwell, “Standardising Media Delivery in a File-Based World” (research white paper, no. WHP 158, BBC, December 2007), http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/rd/pubs/whp/whp-pdf-files/WHP158.pdf.

  £99.6 million: Robert N. Charette, “BBC Blows £98 Million on Digital Media Initiative,” IEEE Spectrum, May 30, 2013, https://spectrum.ieee.org/riskfactor/computing/it/bbc-blows-984m-on-digital-media-initiative-project.

  “new and emerging services”: “Siemens Selects Cinegy for BBC’s Digital Media Initiative,” TV Technology, April 23, 2008, https://www.tvtechnology.com/opinions/siemens-selects-cinegy-for-bbcs-digital-media-initiative.

  “distant”: House of Commons, Committee of Public Acco
unts, “The BBC’s Management of Its Digital Media Initiative,” Twenty-Ninth Report of Session 2010–11 (London: Stationery Office, April 7, 2011), https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201011/cmselect/cmpubacc/808/808.pdf.

  “privately voicing them”: Elizabeth Daniel and John Ward, “BBC’s DMI Project Failure Is a Warning to All Organisations,” Computer Weekly, June 2013, https://www.computerweekly.com/opinion/BBCs-DMI-project-failure-is-a-warning-to-all-organisations.

  “design and development work”: House of Commons, Committee of Public Accounts, “The BBC’s Management of Its Digital Media Initiative.”

  “spending on this initiative”: Dominic Coles, “The BBC Announces the Closure of the Digital Media Initiative—DMI,” About the BBC (blog), May 24, 2013, http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/aboutthebbc/entries/1b3fa3ed-9775-32e7-a68c-9a8272d7c23c.

  Advancement of Science in 2018: Becky Ham, “Scientists Must Adapt to ‘Inflection Point’ in Cancer Research, Says Biden,” American Association for the Advancement of Science, February 18, 2018, https://www.aaas.org/news/scientists-must-adapt-inflection-point-cancer-research-says-biden.

  $81 million in 2010: Nicholas Carlson, “After Selling a Startup to Google for $81 Million, 26-Year-Old Nat Turner Now Wants to Solve Healthcare,” Business Insider, June 5, 2012, https://www.businessinsider.com/after-selling-a-startup-to-google-for-81-million-26-year-old-nat-turner-now-wants-to-solve-healthcare-2012-6.

  nearly $2 billion in 2018: Sarah Buhr, “Swiss Pharma Company Roche Is Buying Flatiron Health for $1.9 Billion,” TechCrunch, February 15, 2018, https://techcrunch.com/2018/02/15/swiss-pharma-company-roche-is-buying-flatiron-health-for-1-9-billion/.

  “build a big business”: “How Invite Media’s Founder Is Making Sure Success ‘Wasn’t a Fluke,’” Financial Post, February 8, 2012, https://business.financialpost.com/entrepreneur/fp-startups/how-invite-medias-founder-is-making-sure-success-wasnt-a-fluke.

  “dollar flow”: Ibid.

  “inviting you to do something”: “Nat Turner: Young, Entrepreneurial and Google-Owned,” interview with Knowledge@Wharton High School, February 5, 2011, http://kwhs.wharton.upenn.edu/2011/02/nat-turner-young-entrepreneurial-and-google-owned/.

  “insight into the health care industry”: Mary Woods, “Nat Turner Disrupts the Health Care Industry,” YPO, February 2017, https://www.ypo.org/2017/02/entrepreneur-nat-turner-shakes-up-the-health-care-industry/.

  “find any information”: Richard Feloni and Daniel Richards, “The 32-Year-Old Who Sold His First Company for $80 Million and a Second for $2 Billion Talks About Writing to Richard Branson, How He’s a Terrible Employee, and Why He Never Intends to Build Companies to Sell Them,” Business Insider, March 12, 2018, https://www.businessinsider.com/nat-turner-flatiron-health-interview-2018-3.

  “why is it that way?”: Ibid.

  they possibly could: Ibid.

  “‘get their feedback early’”: Woods, “Nat Turner Disrupts the Health Care Industry.”

  “more reliable treatment decisions”: Jennifer Bresnick, “FDA: Real-World Data, Machine Learning Critical for Clinical Trials,” HealthITAnalytics.com, January 31, 2019, https://healthitanalytics.com/news/fda-real-world-data-machine-learning-critical-for-clinical-trials.

  “regulatory-grade” information: “Pivotal Study Validates Real-World Mortality Endpoint for Oncology Research,” Flatiron, press release, May 14, 2018, https://flatiron.com/press/press-release/validates-real-world-mortality-endpoint/.

  in an advanced study: C. H. Bartlett, J. Mardekian, M. Cotter, et al., “Abstract P3-17-03: Concordance of Real World Progression Free Survival (PFS) on Endocrine Therapy as First Line Treatment for Metastatic Breast Cancer Using Electronic Health Record with Proper Quality Control Versus Conventional PFS from a Phase 3 Trial,” in 2017 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium, supplement, Cancer Research 78, no. 4 (2018), http://cancerres.aacrjournals.org/content/78/4_Supplement/P3-17-03.

  cost of conducting such trials: David Shaywitz, “The Deeply Human Core of Roche’s $2.1 Billion Tech Acquisition—and Why It Made It,” Forbes, February 18, 2018, https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidshaywitz/2018/02/18/the-deeply-human-core-of-roches-2-1b-tech-acquisition-and-why-they-did-it/#6395534029c2.

  “It’s called ‘experienced’”: Jake Cook, “Steve Blank: Lessons from 35 Years of Making Startups Fail Less,” 99U, November 29, 2012, http://99u.com/articles/7256/steve-blank-lessons-from-35-years-of-making-startups-fail-less.

  other strategic partners: Carol Seagle and Lisa Jones Christensen, “Case Study: Procter & Gamble’s Pur,” Financial Times, March 2, 2011, https://www.ft.com/content/1415f250-44fe-11e0-80e7-00144feab49a.

  an upgradable object: Yuting Su, “Octobo—a Toy That Can Actually Respond to Feedback from Children and Truly Engage Them in Genuine Interactive Play,” OpenIDEO, February 14, 2018, https://challenges.openideo.com/challenge/ecprize/submission/octobo.

  “tactile objects”: “Meet the Entrepreneur Revolutionizing Toys by Blending Physical and Digital Play,” Comcast NBCUniversal LIFT Labs for Entrepreneurs, August 27, 2018, https://lift.comcast.com/2018/08/meet-the-entrepreneur-revolutionizing-toys-by-blending-physical-and-digital-play/.

  6. Galvanizing the Organization

  “organizations to embrace”: Adam Lashinsky, “What Makes Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos Such a Visionary Leader,” Fortune, April 14, 2017, http://fortune.com/2017/04/14/data-sheet-be-like-jeff-bezos/.

  fundamentally complex: Gokce Sargut and Rita Gunther McGrath, “Learning to Live with Complexity,” Harvard Business Review, September 2011.

  “for the Internet”: Dean Takahashi, “The Rise and Fall of Microsoft’s Xbox Champions, Robbie Bach and J Allard,” VentureBeat, May 25, 2010, https://venturebeat.com/2010/05/25/microsofts-longtime-entertainment-executives-robbie-bach-and-j-allard-resign/.

  “information-browsing technologies”: Steve Lohr, “Microsoft Says Internet Browser Idea Arose Long Before Netscape,” New York Times, August 6, 1998, https://www.nytimes.com/1998/08/06/business/microsoft-says-internet-browser-idea-arose-long-before-netscape.html.

  an “evangelist”: Ibid.

  “big bet on the Internet”: Ibid.

  carrying them around: “405 Million Mobile Phones Sold in 2000, and Makers Still Get Stung,” Los Angeles Times, January 10, 2001, http://articles.latimes.com/2001/jan/10/business/fi-10497.

  “great user experience”: Jason Duane Hahn, “The History of the Sidekick: The Coolest Smartphone of All Time,” Complex, September 11, 2015, https://www.complex.com/pop-culture/2015/09/history-of-the-sidekick.

  fee for every user: Chris DeSalvo, “The Future That Everyone Forgot—Some of the Work We Did at Danger,” Medium, January 5, 2014, https://medium.com/@chrisdesalvo/the-future-that-everyone-forgot-d823af31f7c.

  “a really bad idea”: Donna Kardos, “Microsoft to Acquire Danger, Maker of Sidekick Technology,” Wall Street Journal, February 11, 2008, https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB120274323781658967.

  “internet-connected smartphone”: Ibid.

  “(or pricing)”: Joshua Topolsky, “What Killed the Kin?,” Engadget, June 30, 2010, https://www.engadget.com/2010/06/30/what-killed-the-kin/.

  reportedly cost $500 million: Jay Yarrow, “Meet Andy Lees, the Man in Charge of Saving Microsoft,” Forbes, May 26, 2010, https://www.forbes.com/sites/velocity/2010/05/26/meet-andy-lees-the-man-in-charge-of-saving-microsoft-read/#2e85454878c8.

  “withering”: Chris Ziegler, “Life and Death of Microsoft Kin: The Inside Story,” Engadget, July 2, 2010, https://www.engadget.com/2010/07/02/life-and-death-of-microsoft-kin-the-inside-story/.

  “forced into the background”: Ibid.

  delayed the project: Ibid.

  cut in half that year: Preston Gralla, “Microsoft’s Ballmer Loses Big Bonus over Kin, Phone, Tablet Failures,” Computerworld, October 1, 2010, https://www.computerworld.com/article/2469355/mobile-apps/microsoft-s-ballmer-loses-big-bonus-over-kin--phone--tablet-failures.html.

  people working together: Ziegler, “Life and Death of Microsoft
Kin.”

  edging it out: Derek Thompson, “Why Steve Ballmer Failed,” Atlantic, August 23, 2013, https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/08/why-steve-ballmer-failed/278986/.

  he said at the time: “Ballmer Laughs at iPhone,” YouTube, September 18, 2007, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eywi0h_Y5_U.

  “think they have to use”: Derek Thompson, “Why Steve Ballmer Failed.”

  “very different from Ballmer”: Nicholas Thompson, “Why Steve Ballmer Failed,” The New Yorker, August 23, 2013, https://www.newyorker.com/business/currency/why-steve-ballmer-failed.

  “people-centric” IT: Charles Cooper, “Satya Nadella Promises Customers a ‘People-Centric IT,’” CNET, February 4, 2014, https://www.cnet.com/news/satya-nadella-promises-customers-a-people-centric-it.

  “And its culture”: Matt Weinberger, “Satya Nadella: ‘Customer Love’ Is a Better Sign of Success Than Revenue or Profit,” Business Insider, October 7, 2015, http://www.businessinsider.com/microsoft-ceo-satya-nadella-on-culture-2015-10.

  work of Frederick Winslow Taylor: Frederick Winslow Taylor, The Principles of Scientific Management (New York: Harper & Brothers, 1911).

  optimize workers’ behavior: Sarah O’Connor, “When Your Boss Is an Algorithm,” Financial Times, September 8, 2016, https://www.ft.com/content/88fdc58e-754f-11e6-b60a-de4532d5ea35.

  every voice might matter: Rita Gunther McGrath, The End of Competitive Advantage: How to Keep Your Strategy Moving as Fast as Your Business (Boston: Harvard Business Review Press, 2013).

  “bring things together”: Simon London, “Microsoft’s Next Act,” podcast, April 2018, McKinsey Quarterly, https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/high-tech/our-insights/microsofts-next-act.

  “from these trips”: Andrew Nusca, “The Man Who Is Transforming Microsoft,” Fortune, November 11, 2016, http://fortune.com/satya-nadella-microsoft-ceo.

  “fixed mindset”: Satya Nadella, Greg Shaw, and Jill Tracie Nichols, Hit Refresh: The Quest to Rediscover Microsoft’s Soul and Imagine a Better Future for Everyone (New York: HarperCollins, 2017).