by Rita McGrath
apparel industry, 71–75
Apple
AirPods, 5
iPhones, 132, 133
Siri, 19
apprenticeships, 59
arena-based analysis, 10, 208. See also customers
attribute map lens, 88
changes in conditions, 192–93
changing customer needs, 71–75
constraints, 91–94, 152–53
consumption chain lens, 88
customer motivation lens, 88
non-consumer businesses, 76
response to market share loss, 69–71
signs of decline, 65–67
strategies, 67–69, 100
article from the future exercises, 206–8
artificial intelligence (AI), 141
Atria, 79
AT&T, 89
attributes
maps, 88
negative, 56–62, 82–83, 87, 91–94, 100, 166
types, 67
automotive industry, 107
Azure (Microsoft), 140
B
Bach, Robbie, 133
Bain & Company, 30
Ballmer, Steve, 43, 48, 133–35, 141
Barnard College, 167–69
BBC Digital Media Initiative, 109–13
benchmarks, 103, 111–12, 121–25
Berkshire Hathaway, 94
Berners-Lee, Tim, 21–22
Bertolini, Mark, 170
Bezos, Jeff
healthcare venture, 95, 99
seeing inflection points, 81, 171
type 1/type 2 decisions, 29–30
unchangeables, 63
Bid Manager, 116–17
Biden, Joe, 113–14
Bird (scooter company), 94
Bisping, Todd, 99
BlackRock, 180–82
Blank, Steve
customer discovery, 162
on “get out of the building,” 32, 119–20, 196
on Microsoft, 43, 48
on skunk works, 162
as thought leader, 158
Block, Zenas, 158
Blockbuster, 78, 81–83, 88
Boeing, 196
Bourgeois, Jay, 178
Boyd, Danah, 22, 183
Brand Takeover exercise, 34
Breeggemann, Hank, 86
bricolage, 199–201
Britt, Joe, 131
Brodwin, David, 178
Brown, Tim, 67
bubbles, 8
Buffalo Wild Wings, 160
Buffett, Warren, 94, 95, 99
Build-A-Bear Workshop, 169, 185–87
building block exercise, 205
business models, 107–8
“Business Research and Chinese Patriotic Poetry” (Harmon), 61
C
Cambridge Analytica, 21
cameras, 91
cancer research, 113–19
career trajectories, 198–201, 209
Carlson, Curtis, 159
Cassandras. See forecasting; information gathering
Caterpillar, 98–99
CEMEX, 106
Center for Humane Technology, 23
change. See also edges
in arena conditions, 192–93
in consumption chains, 68–73, 76–81
forecasting, 36–38
slow pace, 62–63
what won’t, 63–64
willingness of customers to, 83–86
Chaos Monkeys (Martínez), 24
Charan, Ram, 182
checkpoints, 103, 111–12, 121–25
China, 24
Christensen, Clayton, 61, 62, 159, 200
Cigna Corp., 96, 97
Citi Bike, 94
civil rights violations, 20. See also privacy
claims business models, 108
Clark, Maxine, 185
clothing industry, 71–75
Coles, Dominic, 112–13
collaboration
executives, 172–77
Mulally’s principles, 184–85
non-hierarchical communication, 28, 151, 165–66, 170, 180
strategic planning, 9–10
support of development teams, 131–36, 184–85
talent reallocation, 163–64
Columbia Business School, 168, 204–5
Comcast, 89
“command-and-control” mindset, 11, 170, 175–76, 183, 189
communication
bad news to leadership, 34–36, 171, 175–76, 182–83
executive isolation, 27–28
non-hierarchical, 28, 151, 165–66, 170, 180
company culture
alignment around, 127–28, 171, 175–76
people-centric, 135–36
resiliency, 136–38
shared risk, 189
Constant Contact, 172–77
constraints
arena-based analysis, 91–94, 152–53
customers, 10
innovation, 152–55, 166
internal, 154–55
consumption chains. See also customers
changes, 68–73, 76–81
definition, 88
context analysis, 160
cookies, 16–17
credentialing, 56–62
crises, 145–46, 187–90
culture, company
alignment around, 127–28, 171, 175–76
people-centric, 135–36
resiliency, 136–38
shared risk, 189
current indicators, 45–46, 64
customers. See also arena-based analysis
changing needs, 71–75
connecting with, 135–36, 150, 177
constraints, 10
consumption patterns, 68–73, 78–81
data collection, 14–19
discovery, 162
exploitation of, 94–99
“get out of the building” leadership, 32–34, 38, 131–36
keeping, 89–90
leading indicators, 177
motivations, 85–86, 88, 90–94, 100
pain points, 56–62, 82–83, 87, 91–94, 100, 166
satisfaction, 48
willingness to change, 83–86
CVS Health, 96
D
Danger (technology company), 131–33
Dash, Anil, 29
data. See also metrics; surveillance capitalism
acquisition of, 14–21, 140–41
combining databases, 15–16
in discovery-driven planning, 113–19
energy-use, 46
looking for inflection points in, 141
revenue, 45
Davis-Laack, Paula, 201–2
decline
changing customer needs, 71–75
early warning signs, 65–69
response to, 69–71
separation of operations from growth, 83–89, 100
degree inflation, 57–59
#DeleteFacebook campaign, 21
Deloitte, 110
denial, 35–36, 38
Denning, Steve, 61
DeSalvo, Chris, 132
“Design for Action” (Brown and Martin), 67
design thinking, 10, 67–71, 202–3, 209. See also discovery-driven planning
Deutsche Telekom, 132
development, inflection point, 7–9
Digital Dozen, 36–37, 197
Digital Media Initiative (DMI), 109–13
Digital Storytelling Lab, 36–37, 197
digitization
definition, 104
evolution, 42, 105–8, 200–201
health records, 118–19
innovation, 123–25, 147–52
publishing industry, 183–84
steel industry, 147–52
DiLandro, Christine, 18
Dimon, Jamie, 95, 99
discovery-driven planning, 1, 208
caveats, 101–2
learning from failures, 108–13
practices, 119–25, 126
staggering actions, 104–8
timing, 10
4, 125
using data, 113–19
dismissive stage, 8–9
Disney Studios, 89
Disrupting Class (Christensen), 61
disruption, 2
hearing aid industry, 2–6
distribution business models, 107–8
diversity
degree requirements, 58
importance of, 28–29, 38
dollar flow, 115
Dollar Shave Club, 69
Donahoe, John, 30
Dorf, Bob, 158
Dual Transformation (Anthony, et al.), 153
Dweck, Carol, 137
E
early warning signs
customer pain points, 56–62
decline, 65–69
freedom to signal strength ratio, 49–51
ignoring, 26–27, 34–36, 183
importance, 39
indicators, 44–49
optimum warning period, 51
time zero event identification, 51–56, 64
weak, 40–43, 62–63, 208–9
what won’t change, 63–64
eBay, 30
ecosystems, 42
edges, 9, 208
agile processes, 29–31
candor, 34–36, 182–83
customer connections, 27–28
definition, 26
diversity, 28–29
forecasting, 36–37
“get out of the building,” 32–34, 38, 131–36, 196–97
little bets, 31–32
personal, 191–97, 209
styles of, 27–28, 38
Edmonson, Amy, 48
education
alternatives, 56–57, 59–61
degree inflation, 57–59
universities, 61–62
emergent stage, 9
employees. See management
empowerment of, 28, 30, 38, 139–42
innovation training, 158–59
listening to, 112, 127–29, 137–38, 143, 183
non-hierarchical communication, 28, 151, 165–66, 170, 180
shielding management, 32–34
training, 151
The End of Competitive Advantage (McGrath), 66
energy industry, 53–56, 76
energy-use data, 46
Enron, 34–35, 81
Enron Broadband Services (EBS), 81
entrepreneurs. See also innovation
networking, 119–20, 126
practices of habitual, 126
Equinor (was Statoil), 76
experimentation. See also innovation
design thinking, 10, 67–71
fun, 179–80
learning from failure, 10, 108–13, 151, 152–54
little bets, 31–32, 38, 103, 125
Express Scripts Holding Co., 96
F
Facebook
challenges to, 23–25
data acquisition, 16–21
decision making at, 30–31
emotional impacts of, 22–23
executive isolation, 27–28, 32–34
ignoring early warnings, 26–27, 34–36, 183
lack of diversity, 28–29
little bets, 31
“move fast and break things,” 30–31
News Feed feature, 22
reach, 146
failure
learning from, 10, 108–13, 151, 152–54
proof of concept, 161–62
response to market share loss, 69–71
fast fashion, 75
Fathom, 57
FDA (Food and Drug Administration), 3–4, 5, 118
feedback
bad news to leadership, 34–36, 171, 175–76, 182–83
leading through, 175–76
personal, 195–96, 209
Fink, Larry, 180–82
first-mover advantage, 148
Flatiron Health, 114–19, 202
Food and Drug Administration (FDA), 3–4, 5, 118
forecasting, 9, 208. See also discovery-driven planning
personal, 196–97, 203–9
scenario planning, 52–56
SPARK (See it, Plan it, Action it, Repeat it, Keep the faith), 186–87
spotting change, 36–38
starting from future focus, 149
freedom, to adjust, 49–51, 64
front-line employees
empowerment of, 28, 30, 38, 139–42
listening to, 112, 127–29, 137–38, 143, 183
shielding management, 32–34
Fuller, Joseph, 58
FunLabs, 179–80
future thinking. See forecasting
Futures Strategy Group (was Futures Group), 49
G
Gap, 33
Gartner Hype Cycle, 8, 43
Gates, Bill, 43, 130–31
GDPR (General Data Protection Regulation), 23–24
GE (General Electric), 150
General Electric (GE), 150
Gerstner, Lou, 28, 182
“get out of the building”
consequences of failing to, 134–35
customer discovery, 32–34, 38
empathy, 135–36
personal applications, 196–97, 209
Ghosn, Carlos, 187–88
Gibson, William Ford, 36, 98
Gilbert, Clark, 153
Gillette, 69–71
goals
alignment, 170, 174
clarity, 138–39, 175, 180–82
elements, 9–10
intersection with technology, 200
Goldsmith, Marshall, 169, 184, 195–96
Goodman, Gail, 172–77, 183, 195
GoodRx, 97
Google
AdWords, 105–6
Amazon as competitor, 25
purchase of Bid Manager, 116–17
radio, 161
regulations, 13, 20
Gottlieb, Scott, 118
Gratton, Lynda, 62
green energy, 53–56, 76
Grove, Andy, 1, 9, 14, 52, 182, 188, 192
growth mindset, 137–38
growth stalls, 65
H
Haas Act of 1937, 91–92
Hanson, Kaaren, 120
The Hard Thing About Hard Things (Horowitz), 188
Harmon, Michael, 61
HarperCollins, 183
Hastings, Reed, 78–79, 84–86, 88–89, 202
Health Transformation Alliance, 99
healthcare industry, 94–99, 113–19
hearing aids, 2–6
Helgesen, Sally, 169–70
Hershenson, Matt, 131
higher education
alternatives, 56–57, 59–61
degree inflation, 57–59
universities, 61–62
Highfield, Ashley, 110
Hit Refresh (Nadella), 137, 139
Hoffman, Reid, 198
HoloLens (Microsoft), 140
Home Depot, 30
Horowitz, Ben, 188
How Women Rise (Helgesen and Goldsmith), 169
hybrid jobs, 199
Hype Cycle, 8, 43
I
IBM, 28
ideation, 162–63
Imagination Premium, 159–60
In Extremis Leadership (Kolditz), 188
incentives
consumption-based, 142
helpful vs. harmful, 34–35, 38
realignment, 95–98
income share agreements (ISA), 60–61
incumbents, negative attributes of, 82–83, 87
indicators
building into incentives, 142, 143
current, 45–46, 64
lagging, 44–45, 64
leading, 46–47, 64, 142–43, 177, 197, 208
outcomes and, 47–49
Inditex, 75
inflection points. See also early warning signs
arena-based analysis, 65–77, 88, 94, 100, 152–53, 192–93
customer indicators, 78–100
definition, 1
development, 7–9<
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discovery-driven planning, 1, 101–26
employee empowerment, 139–42
information gathering, 9, 13–38
innovation, 144–66
leadership, 10–11, 127–43
leadership models, 167–90