From the Earth: A Future Chronology Anthology
Page 24
“Yeah, what do you want, are you ready to come out?”
“Lieutenant I want you to look at this message that just came in from my father on Mars.”
A couple of minutes passed. “Lieutenant, are you there?” asked Martin.
“A minute, Jackson,” said the lieutenant.
A minute passed, five minutes, then Martin called to the lieutenant again. Nothing. “What are we going to do, asked one of the men?”
“We'll wait,” said Martin.
Ten minutes, twenty minutes, thirty minutes passed. Then the door began to open. Martin and the men moved back against the far wall. The door cleared its frame and there stood Almon Kipler, a little worse for wear.
“Almon!” shouted Martin. “Are you okay?”
“My ears are buzzing but otherwise I’m okay. They hit me with flash-bang. They're gone now. They took the fellow I shot with them.” Martin threw his arm around Almon, they both laughed and shook hands all around.
16
Almon and the other homesteaders voted to become an independent territory associated with the Solar Federation. The Solar Federation would provide the extra-governmental protections the territory would need for now. They had begun mining and were making efforts to bring the necessary refining equipment to the Belt. The miners would soon have contracts with several corporations to supply rare metals and volatiles.
Almon and the others had asked Martin to represent them on Mars and to setup a corporation to look after their interests. Martin would be paid quite handsomely for his services.
Martin stayed with Almon and helped him with his mining until the next cycler came within range. Martin said goodbye to Almon as the cycler's shuttle docked.
“Martin,” said Almon. “We would have been lost without you. We will always be grateful.” Martin shook Almon's hand.
“Thank you Almon,” said Martin. “But I have to say, a lot of it was luck and timing. I'm not a hero, just a kid fresh from the Academy who found himself in amazing company. You and the other homesteaders put your lives and your fortunes on the line for independence.”
Martin took Almon's hand and shook it, “I don't know what else life holds for me but I can't help but think it won't be nearly as exciting as that day we stood together. I hope to see you again, goodbye.”
“Goodbye Martin, same here,” said Almon.
________
Martin was back on a cycler and headed for home when he received the message from his father.
“Martin,” the message said, “I am so glad you are safe and everything turned out so well there. You are quite a hero around here so better start getting used to seeing your name in the media. Your mom and I are so proud. The association for the miner’s interests has been set up by Lawson. You should be getting your contract soon. I hope it meets with your approval. It is a good cause to commit your future to.
“There is no new news from Earth about uncle Abram's death. Lawson says that even Randall has been unable to uncover anything. And the police probe seems to have run its course. The detective in charge has been reassigned. They say it's a cold case and will only be reopened if some new information is discovered. Notice it has not been ruled an accident.
“Randall believes it is being suppressed at the highest levels. He doesn't think any current government officials on Earth are directly involved. But he does believe they have been convinced that it is in their best interests to obstruct.
“Well, someday justice will be done and uncle Abram won't be forgotten. The miners accepted the name you suggested for their association ‘Abram Davide Jackson Mining Association’. I know uncle Abram would be proud” - Dad and Mom.
Afterword and Appendices
AFTERWORD
Before the stories in this volume were written a chronology for the Solar System was created and updated as the stories developed. This chronology herein called “A Future Chronology” is in the following appendix. Along with the time chronology, a character timeline, called “A Character Chronology” is found in the second appendix.
Three books (among many others) that particularly contributed to developing the chronology and stories were:
The “Next One Hundred Years” (Friedman) contributed particularly to the geo-political background of Earth and the war sequence in “War Through the Pines”.
“The End of the Beginning” (Goertzl) contributed to the timeline for Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). I delayed the advent of AGI (and the technology Singularity usually connected with it) after reading “The Age of Em”.
“The Age of Em” (Hanson) is a book about emulated brains (Ems), human brains mapped and running in computer hardware. Although the book mostly discussed the interactions and society that Ems would develop, I extrapolated their influence to society at large. Hanson make the case (I think persuasively) for the development of Ems long before the development of AGI (from one to four hundred years before).
Artificial General Intelligence is not found in the timeline for this volume.
My future chronology for the solar system diverges from many others I've found in that I do not assume the terraforming of Mars or any other planet/moon. This perhaps will turn out to be my biggest error. But I somehow like the thought of not changing the natural world more than necessary. And logically, all the terraforming schemes I've read about take hundreds if not thousands of years to complete. It seems like a very long time for such a project to be pursued diligently by impatient men (but note, not by patient AGI).
There is always a question as to how much background material to include in a story. I took the following technologies (and others) to exist in the different stories and provided little or no explanation for them:
Space-elevator.
Self-driving cars.
Personal electronic assistants using advanced Artificial Narrow Intelligence (Annies).
Foldable display screens.
Fusion power and fusion powered spacecraft.
Medical therapies such as gene therapy.
Ubiquitous robotics.
Even when I gave an explanation for some technical development such as Emulated Brains it was brief. My goal was to keep the plot and character development moving.
As will be apparent if one compares the stories to the chronology, not all chronological events appear or were used in the stories, which might make reading the chronology interesting in itself. Not all the background for some of the events is included, it may also be necessary to do an internet search to fully understand some of the terminology used.
Of course any chronology of the future is not a prediction but a guess and really just an outline (or excuse) for writing a series of stories.
APPENDIX1 – A FUTURE CHRONOLOGY
Space Era (SE)
The Space Era (SE) begins on July 20, 1969 old calendar (AD or CE) with the landing of the first men on the moon. This is Space Date (SD) 1. Year 1 begins at the equivalent 1.1.1970. The SD continues counting from July 20 and is 1.65.2 where the last number is factor of 10 multiplier or 1.65 X 10^2 or 165 days. Years can be converted by adding or subtracting 1970 so that the year 2013 AD becomes 43 SE. 1940 AD becomes 30 PSE, Pre-Space Era.
SE/CE
1943 (27 PSE)
First self-sustaining nuclear fission reaction
1944 (26 PSE)
V2 rocket used in WWII
1945 (25 PSE)
First atomic bombs, used in WWII
1969 (1 SD)
Man lands on the moon
1st Century SE
2001 (31 SE)
GeoPol: Terrorism becomes international
2006
Family: John Jackson born.
2010
Econ: $1/2000 = $1.29/2010
Tech: Computers have same raw computing power as brain, 10^16 FLOPS.
2011
Space: Tiangong-1, space station; 11X34 ft. cylinder.
2013
Space: Taikonaut takes space walk in orbit. Chang’e-1 moon orb
iter.
2015
GeoPol: Russia puts together federation with parts of Ukraine, Belarus other Central Asian powers. Russia establishing buffers outside federation area through influence and power.
Poland reacts by moving closer to US. Poland supports Baltic States in resistance to Russia.
US increases military strength of NE Europeans by high-tech transfers.
Space: US Congress passes Asteroid Mining Bill (later 'gutted' by the UN)
2016
Health: Zukerberg establishes foundation to cure all diseases.
GeoPol: Russia appeals to Germans. Germans pressure NATO into inaction.
Baltic States, Poland, old Soviet satellites Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania will form coalition backed by US, outside of NATO.
2017
GeoPol: LA, NY undergo terrorist nuclear (dirty bomb) attack
Space: ISRO (Indian Space Research Organization) puts man in orbit.
Tech: 3D printing reduces mass by 50 to 80 percent for stowed volume, truss and solar arrays built on orbit (NASA11/27/13)
Computer memory is approximately equivalent to human brain, 10^13 bits, costs $1000.
Health: Robotic leg and arm prostheses with “smarts” common.
2019
Space: Shackleton Energy bootstrapped fuel on moon fails, 3 employees stranded.
2020 (50 SE)
Econ: $1/2000 = $1.67/2020
Space: First sample core drilled on NE asteroid
First orbital lab research park established in LEO
GeoPol: New 'cold war' underway in Europe confronting Russia.
A shortage of available workers is showing up around the world and in the US. Attracting immigrants will be important. Robotics is being pushed to provide some of the shortfall.
Tech: ANI “expert systems” emerge. Natural language capabilities for medicine, law, science, engineering, project management.
Cultural: Unemployment “crisis” begins.
2022
Space: Orbital servicing of satellites available
Tech: $1000 computer emulates human intelligence. ANI system mines internet for new discoveries. Some call it an emerging Global Intelligence.
2023
Tech: Humanoid robots, with the help of the emerging GI (Global Intelligence) system, can carry out some ordinary service and manufacturing jobs.
2024
GeoPol: The Arabian sheikdoms are becoming more and more unstable. Division will be the outcome for the Arab world.
Tech: Computer software model of a human brain achieved.
First Hyperloop between Dallas & Houston opened, 230 miles in 23 minutes.
Space: Japanese establish first base on moon. Tiangong Space Station; lifetime, 10 years.
Moon Fuel (Shackleton Energy successor) establishes moon rocket fuel refinery, and Earth orbiting fuel station. Total of 12 crew members living at refinery.
Surrey Satellite establishes a constellation of communication satellites around the moon to provide internet like connectivity from moon to Earth.
2025 (55 SE)
Space: Humans first sent to Mars, crew of 8, a commercial venture. Propulsion: chemical, ion.
(Earliest year for Thrifty Starship Dyson, GDP of 1.74 trillion required)
Populations:
Earth: 7.2 billion (UN)
Moon/Japanese: 12
GeoPol: Japan will increasingly look to its own interests as its needs for energy and raw materials climb. It will become more and more militaristic.
The Russians by pressing southward to reabsorb Georgia and linking with Armenia alarms Turkey and it will begin to flex its regional muscle by moving north into the Caucasus to guarantee their national security. The Russians will work to contain Turkey using the Arab countries unrest. It will also try to contain Hungary and Romania by trying to turn Bulgaria, Serbia, and Croatia against them. The result will be a destabilization of other countries such as Greece, Macedonia, Bosnia, and Montenegro.
Turkey will respond to all this instability with a renewed alliance with the U.S.
Korea is reunited with a population of 70 million and a 12th ranking economy.
China turns inward as its government struggles to maintain control, power more and more devolves to regions. Its space program is becoming moribund.
Tech: Quantum computers common at most universities, large businesses. Em research scans and implements cat size brain.
Work: Teachers, physicians, nurses, radiologists, lawyers, engineers, all professions impacted by robotic learning systems.
Health: First nanobots used in diagnosis of disease.
Brain enhancements through targeted pharmacology with no side effects are common.
Some replacement organs grown outside body available.
Telomere repair available in some circumstances.
Health care robots and virtual companions available.
Cryo-rejuvenation proven to work, more and more people turn to cryogenics.
Gene therapy via multiple injections over a period of months can rejuvenate human tissues dramatically. Middle aged life expectancies can be extended to 120 years and beyond. Some believe the “Methuselarity” has arrived.
Life expectancy from 76(2000) to 82 advanced nations, from 51(2000) to 66 in poorest nations.
2026 (56 SE)
Space: Eight more to Mars, first death on Mars occurs.
Tech: The cost of manufacturing humanoid service/manufacturing robots becomes low enough that it is becoming economical for businesses to employ more robots. Exceptions include high-level managerial, scientific, engineering, design and artistic, but they are also under pressure from ANI expert systems.
Cultural: Increasing unemployment due to robotics causes social upheaval in advanced countries.
2027
Cultural: Many governments enact “universal living allowance” for their citizens. As unemployment rates are approaching 25%. Many of the unemployed spend their time in “virtual pursuits”.
Birth rate in developed world plummets as people spend more time on their virtual pursuits than human contact.
2028 (58 SE)
Health: First worldwide plague this century, estimated 250 million die, rumored but not proven to be bio-terror.
Family: First-born to John Jackson and mother Miri dies in worldwide plague.
Space: US establishes first base on Moon.
Hypersonic robotic air/spacecraft using scramjets (8000 mph) are deployed by US.
Populations:
Mars: 38
Moon/Japanese: 18
Moon/US: 8
GeoPol: Russia 'collapse' from strain of new 'cold war'. Regions will break away. The Pacific region, perhaps, because of its interest in Pacific Basin. Chechnya and other Muslim regions. Karelia will secede.
US not able to benefit from collapse because of worker shortages affecting economy.
Worker crisis reaches a head in US during elections. US faces two problems, demographics and productivity growth; innovation of past (computer contributions mostly) will be coming to an end. At the end of the 2020's retirees will be drawing down equity while still consuming at a high rate. Workers will be needed to satisfy demand. With decline in workers, their wages will soar and inflation will soar accelerating the rate at which retirees exhaust their wealth, push for robot workers increases. Stagflation will return.
Tech: Computers can emulate the human brain but too slow to be useful.
Computer implants with direct connection to the brain will become common.
Augmenting natural senses and enhancing higher-brain functions such as memory, learning, and intelligence. It is even possible to share rough approximations of thoughts and feelings directly with others, even over the internet. Walmart Implant Clinic's do a thriving business as many implant to achieve a higher level of intimacy in their virtual pursuits. “Braining” back and forth becomes popular with the young.
ANI's become more general as brain implants are used to tr
ain them in ways of human thought and feeling, enhancing their performance.