the Sum Of All Fears (1991)

by Tom - Jack Ryan 05 Clancy

  "Sure is," Ryan agreed. "But there's a reason. Some of that information is still ... well, not exactly current, but it would reveal some tricks we don't want revealed."

  "Isn't that just a little extreme?" Goodley asked as dispassionately as he could manage.

  "Let's say we had Agent BANANA operating back then. Okay, he's dead now--died of old age, say--but maybe Agent PEAR was recruited by him, and he's still working. If the Sovs find out who BANANA was, that might give them a clue. Also you have to think about certain methods of message-transfer. People have been playing baseball for a hundred fifty years, but a change-up is still a change-up. I used to think the same way you do, Ben. You learn that most of the things that are done here are done for a reason."

  Captured by the system, Goodley thought.

  "By the way, you did notice that Khrushchev's last batch of tapes pretty much proved Nick Bledsoe wrong on some of his points--one other thing."

  "Yes?"

  "Let's say that John Kennedy had hard intel in the spring of 1961, really good stuff that Khrushchev wanted to change the system. In '58 he'd effectively gutted the Red Army, and he was trying to reform the Party. Let's say that Kennedy had hard stuff on that, and he was told by a little bird that if he cut the Russkies a little slack, maybe we could have had a rapprochement in the '60s. Glasnost, say, thirty years early. Let's say all that happened, and the President blew the call, decided for political reasons that it was disadvantageous to cut Nikita a little slack.... That would mean that the 1960s were all a great big mistake. Vietnam, everything, all a gigantic screwup."

  "I don't believe it. I've been through the archives. It's not consistent with everything we know about--"

  "Consistency in a politician?" Ryan interrupted. "There's a revolutionary concept."

  "If you're saying that really happened--"

  "It was a hypothetical," Jack said with a raised eyebrow. Hell, he thought, the information was all out there for anyone who wanted to pull it together. That it had never been done was just another manifestation of a wider and more troubling problem. But the part that worried him was right in this building. He'd leave history to historians ... until, someday, he decided to rejoin their professional ranks. And when will that be, Jack?

  "Nobody'd ever believe it."

  "Most people believe that Lyndon Johnson lost the New Hampshire primary to Eugene McCarthy because of the Tet Offensive, too. Welcome to the world of intelligence, Dr. Goodley. You know what's the hard part of recognizing the truth?" Jack asked.

  "What's that?"

  "Knowing that something just bit you on the ass. It's not as easy as you think."

  "And the breakup of the Warsaw Pact?"

  "Case in point," Ryan agreed. "We had all kinds of indicators, and we all blew the call. Well, that's not true, exactly. A lot of the youngsters in the DI--Directorate of Intelligence," Jack explained unnecessarily, which struck Goodley as patronizing, "were making noise, but the section chiefs pooh-poohed it."

  "And you, sir?"

  "If the Director's agreeable, we can let you see some of that. Most of it, in fact. The majority of our agents and field officers got faked out of their jockstraps, too. We all could have done better, and that's as true of me as it is of anybody else. If I have a weakness, it's that I have too tactical a focus."

  "Trees instead of the forest?"

  "Yep," Ryan admitted. "That's the big trap here, but knowing about it doesn't always help a whole hell of a lot."

  "I guess that's why they sent me over," Goodley observed.

  Jack grinned. "Hell, that's not terribly different from how I got started here. Welcome aboard. Where do you want to start, Dr. Goodley?"

  Ben already had a good idea on that, of course. If Ryan could not see it coming, that was not his problem, was it?

  "So where do you get the computers?" Bock asked. Fromm was closeted away with his paper and pencils.

  "Israel for a start, maybe Jordan or Turkey," Ghosn replied.

  "This will be rather expensive," Bock warned.

  "I have already checked out the computer-controlled machine tools. Yes, they are expensive." But not that expensive. It occurred to Ghosn that he had access to hard-currency assets that might boggle the mind of this unbeliever. "We will see what your friend requires. Whatever it is, we will get it."

  13

  PROCESS

  Why did I ever accept this job?

  Roger Durling was a proud man. The upset winner of what was supposed to have been a secure Senate seat, then the youngest governor in the history of California, he knew pride to be a weakness, but he also knew that there was much to justify his.

  I could have waited a few years, maybe returned to the Senate and earned my way into the White House instead of cutting a deal and delivering the election to Fowler ... in return for this.

  "This" was Air Force Two, the radio call sign for whatever aircraft the Vice President rode on. The implicit contrast with "Air Force One" made just one more joke that attached to what was putatively the second most important political post in the United States, though not as earthily apt as John Nance Garner's observation: "A pitcher of warm spit." The whole office of Vice President, Durling judged, was one of the few mistakes made by the Founding Fathers. It had once been worse. Originally the Vice President was supposed to have been the losing candidate who, after losing, would patriotically take his place in a government not his and preside over the Senate, setting aside petty political differences to serve the country. How James Madison had ever been that foolish was something scholars had never really examined, but the mistake had been corrected quickly enough by the 12th Amendment in 1803. Even in an age when gentlemen preparing for a duel referred to each other as "sir," that was something that pressed selflessness too far. And so the law had been changed, and the Vice President was now an appendage instead of a defeated enemy. That so many Vice Presidents had succeeded to the top job was less a matter of design than happenstance. That so many had done well--Andrew Johnson, Theodore Roosevelt, Harry Truman--was miraculous.

  It was in any case a chance he would never have. Bob Fowler was physically healthy and politically as secure as any President had been since ... Eisenhower? Durling wondered. Maybe even FDR. The important, almost co-equal role for the Vice President that Carter had initiated with Walter Mondale--something largely ignored but highly constructive--was a thing of the past. Fowler did not need Durling anymore. The President had made that quite clear.

  And so Durling was relegated to subsidiary--not even secondary--duties. Fowler got to fly about in a converted 747 dedicated to his use alone. Roger Durling got whatever aircraft might be available, in this case one of the VC-20B Gulfstreams that were used by anyone who had the right credentials. Senators and House members on junkets got them if they were on the right committees, or if the President sensed a need to stroke their egos.

  You're being petty, Durling told himself. By being petty, you justify all the crap you have to put up with.

  His misjudgment had been at least as great as Madison's, the Vice President told himself as the aircraft taxied out. In deciding that a political figure would place country above his own ambition, Madison had merely been optimistic. Durling, on the other hand, had ignored an evident political reality, that the real difference in importance between President and Vice President was far greater than the difference between Fowler and any of a dozen committee chairmen in the House or Senate. The President had to deal with Congress to get any work done. He didn't need to deal with his Vice President.

  How had he allowed himself to get here? That earned an amused grunt, though the question had occurred to Durling a thousand times. Patriotism, of course, or at least the political version of it. He'd delivered California, and without California he and Fowler would both still be governors. The one substantive concession he'd gotten--the accession of Charlie Alden to the post of National Security Advisor--had been for naught, but he had been the deciding factor in changing the Presidency f
rom one party to another. And his reward for that was drawing every crap detail in the executive branch, delivering speeches that would rarely make the news, though those of various cabinet officials did, speeches to keep faithful the party faithful, speeches to float new ideas--usually bad ones, and rarely his own--and wait for lightning to strike himself instead of the President. Today he was going out to talk about the need to raise taxes to pay for the peace in the Middle East. What a marvelous political opportunity! he thought. Roger Durling would outline the need for new taxes in St. Louis before a convention of purchasing managers, and he was sure the applause would be deafening.

  But he had accepted the job, had given his word to perform the duties of the office, and if he did any less, then what would he be?

  The aircraft rolled unevenly past the hangars and various aircraft, including NEACP, the 747 configured as the National Emergency Airborne Command Post, known as "Kneecap," or more dramatically as "The Doomsday Plane." Always within two flying hours of wherever the President might be (a real headache when the President visited Russia or China), it was the only safe place the President might occupy in a nuclear crisis--but that didn't really matter anymore, did it? Durling saw people shuffling in and out of the aircraft. Funding hadn't been reduced on that yet--well, it was part of the President's personal fleet--and it was still kept ready for a rapid departure. He wondered how soon that might change. Everything else had.

  "We're ready for departure. All buckled, sir?" the sergeant-attendant asked.

  "You bet! Let's get this show on the road," Durling replied with a smile. On Air Force One, he knew, people often showed their confidence in the aircraft and the crew by not buckling. More evidence that his airplane was second-best, but he could hardly growl at the sergeant for being a pro, and to this man Roger Durling was important. The Vice President reflected that this made the sergeant E-6 in the U.S. Air Force a more honorable man than most of the people in politics, but that wasn't much of a surprise, was it?

  "That's a roger."

  "Again?" Ryan asked.

  "Yes, sir," the voice on the other end of the phone said.

  "Okay, give me a few minutes."

  "Yes, sir."

  Ryan finished off his coffee and walked off toward Cabot's office. He was surprised to see Goodley in there again. The youngster was keeping his distance from the Director's cigar smoke, and even Jack thought that Marcus was overdoing the Patton act or whatever the hell Cabot thought he was trying to look like.

  "What is it, Jack?"

  "CAMELOT," Jack replied with visible annoyance. "Those White House pukes have bowed out again. They want me to join in instead."

  "Well, are you that tied up?"

  "Sir, we talked about that four months ago. It's important for the people at the White House to--"

  "The President and his people are busy on some things," the DCI explained tiredly.

  "Sir, these things are scheduled weeks in advance, and it's the fourth straight time that--"

  "I know, Jack."

  Ryan stood his ground. "Director, somebody has to explain to them how important this is."

  "I've tried, dammit!" Cabot shot back. He had done so, Jack knew.

  "Have you tried working through Secretary Talbot, or maybe Dennis Bunker?" Jack asked. At least the President listens to them, Jack didn't add.

  He didn't have to. Cabot got the message. "Look, Jack, we can't give orders to the President. We can only give advice. He doesn't always take it. You're pretty good at this, anyway. Dennis likes playing with you."

  "Fine, sir, but it's not my job--do they even read the washup notes?"

  "Charlie Alden did. I suppose Liz Elliot does too."

  "I bet," Ryan observed icily, ignoring Goodley's presence. "Sir, they are being irresponsible."

  "That's a little strong, Jack."

  "It's a little true, Director," Ryan said as calmly as he could.

  "Can I ask what CAMELOT is?" Ben Goodley asked.

  "It's a game," Cabot answered. "Crisis-management, usually."

  "Oh, like SAGA and GLOBAL?"

  "Yeah," Ryan said. "The President never plays. The reason is that we cannot risk knowledge of how he would act in a given situation--and yes, that is overly Byzantine, but it's always been that way. Instead, the National Security Advisor or some other senior staff member takes his place, and the President is supposed to be briefed on how it goes. Except that President Fowler thinks that he doesn't have to bother, and now his people are starting to act the same dumb way." Jack was sufficiently annoyed that he used the words "President Fowler" and "dumb" in the same sentence.

  "Well, I mean, is it really necessary?" Goodley asked. "Sounds like an anachronism to me."

  "You have car insurance, Ben?" Jack asked.

  "Yes, sure."

  "Ever have an auto accident?"

  "Not one that was my fault," Goodley replied.

  "Then why bother with insurance?" Jack answered the question: "Because it's insurance, right? You don't expect to need it, you never want to need it, but because you might need it, you spend the money--or time, in this case--to have it."

  The Presidential Scholar made a dismissive gesture. "Come on, it's a different thing altogether."

  "That's right. In a car it's just your ass." Ryan stopped the sermon. "Okay, Director, I'm off for the rest of the day."

  "Your objections and recommendations are noted, Jack. I will bring them up at my first opportunity--oh, before you leave, about NIITAKA ..."

  Ryan stopped in his tracks and stared down at Cabot. "Sir, Mr. Goodley is not cleared for that word, much less that file."

  "We are not discussing the substance of the case. When will the people downstairs"--Ryan was grateful he didn't say MERCURY--" be ready for the, uh, modified operations? I want to improve data-transfer."

  "Six weeks. Until then we have to use the other methods we discussed."

  The Director of Central Intelligence nodded. "Very well. The White House is very interested in that, Jack. Good job to all concerned."

  "Glad to hear that, sir. See you tomorrow." Jack walked out.

  "NIITAKA?" Goodley asked after the door closed. "Sounds Japanese."

  "Sorry, Goodley. You can forget that word at your earliest opportunity." Cabot had spoken it only to remind Ryan of his place, and the honorable part of the man already regretted having done so.

  "Yes, sir. May I ask an unrelated question?"

  "Sure."

  "Is Ryan as good as people say?"

  Cabot stubbed out the remains of his cigar, to the relief of his visitor. "He's got quite a record."

  "Really? I've heard that. You know, that's the whole reason I'm here, to examine the personality types that really make a difference. I mean, how does someone grow into the job? Ryan's skyrocketed up the ladder here. I'd be very interested in seeing how he managed to do that."

  "He's done it by being right a lot more often than he's wrong, by making some tough calls, and with some field jobs that even I can hardly believe," Cabot said after a moment's consideration. "And you can never, ever reveal that to anyone, Dr. Goodley."

  "I understand, sir. Could I see his record, his personnel file?"

  The DCI's eyebrows arched. "Everything you see in there is classified. Anything you try to write about it--"

  "Excuse me, but I know that, sir. Everything I write is subject to security review. I signed off on that. It's important that I learn how a person really fits in here, and Ryan would seem to be an ideal case study for examining how that process happens. I mean, that's why the White House sent me over here," Goodley pointed out. "I'm supposed to report to them on what I find."

  Cabot was silent for a moment. "I suppose that's okay, then."

  Ryan's car arrived at the Pentagon's River Entrance. He was met by an Air Force one-star and conducted inside, bypassing the metal detector. Two minutes later he was in one of many subterranean rooms that lie under and around this ugliest of official buildings.

&nb
sp; "Hello, Jack," Dennis Bunker called from the far end of the room.

  "Mr. Secretary." Jack nodded as he took his National Security Advisor's chair. The game started immediately. "What seems to be the problem?"

  "Aside from the fact that Liz Elliot has decided not to grace us with her presence?" The Secretary of Defense chuckled, then went serious. "There has been an attack on one of our cruisers in the Eastern Med. The information is still sketchy, but the ship has been severely damaged and may be sinking. We presume heavy casualties."

  "What do we know?" Jack asked, settling into the game. He put on a color-coded name tag that identified which part he was playing. A card hanging from the ceiling over his chair had the same purpose.

  "Not much." Bunker looked up as a Navy lieutenant entered the room.

  "Sir, USS Kidd reports that Valley Forge exploded and sank five minutes ago as a result of the initial damage. There are no more than twenty survivors, and rescue operations are under way."

  "What is the cause of the loss?" Ryan asked.

  "Unknown, sir. Kidd was thirty miles from Valley Forge at the time of the incident. Her helo is on the scene now. Commander Sixth Fleet has brought all his ships to full-alert status. USS Theodore Roosevelt is launching aircraft to sweep the area."

  "I know the CAG on TR, Robby Jackson," Ryan said to nobody in particular. Not that it mattered. Theodore Roosevelt was actually in Norfolk, and Robby was still preparing for his next cruise. The names in the war game were generic, and personal knowledge of the players didn't matter since they were not supposed to be real people. But if it were real, Robby was Commander Air Group on USS Theodore Roosevelt, and his would be the first plane off the cats. It was well to remember that though this might be a game, its purpose was deadly serious. "Background information?" Jack asked. He didn't remember all of the pre-brief on the scenario being played out.

  "CIA reports a possible mutiny in the Soviet Union by Red Army units in Kazakhstan, and disturbances in two Navy bases there also," the game narrator, a Navy commander, reported.