by Benn Steil
143 Acheson to Robert P. Patterson, March 5, 1947, in FRUS, 1947, III: 197.
CHAPTER 3: RUPTURE
1 Isaacson and Thomas (1986 [2012]:403).
2 Cray (1990 [2000]:316–19). On Marshall’s roles under FDR, see Roberts (2009).
3 Crowder (2015:161); Marshall, interview by William M. Spencer, July 9, 1947, Six Interviews Collection, Interviews and Reminiscences for Forrest C. Pogue, George C. Marshall Foundation; Marshall, interview by Cols. L. M. Guyer and C. H. Connelly, February 11, 1949, Six Interviews Collection, Interviews and Reminiscences for Forrest C. Pogue, George C. Marshall Foundation.
4 See, for example, Unger and Unger (2014:368–83).
5 Pogue IV (1987:139); McCullough (1992:508).
6 George V. Underwood, Jr., to John E. Hull, “Radio No. MING 99,” January 9, 1947, in Bland and Stoler VI (2013:3–4); McCullough (1992:532–33).
7 Cray (1990 [2000]:585–86).
8 Pechatnov and Edmondson (2001:89).
9 Strang (1956:174–75). Molotov could read French well and English and German competently. Chuev (1993:77).
10 Moorhouse (2014:17); Montefiore (2003:206).
11 Byrnes (1947:278–79).
12 Roberts (2011:3–4).
13 Bidault (1965 [1967]:40).
14 Churchill I (1948:330).
15 Novikov (1989).
16 Pogue IV (1987:175).
17 Bidault (1965 [1967]:144); Cray (1990 [2000]:600).
18 Cray (1990 [2000]:600–602).
19 Gimbel (1968:112).
20 Harrington (2012:27). See also Harbutt (1986) and Trachtenberg (1999:vii–viii, 15–55).
21 Reynolds (2006:270). A committee of demographers appointed by Mikhail Gorbachev in 1990 used census and military records to put the number of deaths from the war at approximately 26.6 million; this was out of a prewar population of 196.7 million (13.5 percent). Source: Ellman and Maksudov (1994).
22 Chuev (1993:60).
23 Plokhy (2010:111, 257). Bohlen minutes, “Second Plenary Meeting, February 5, 1945, 4 PM, Livadia Palace,” in FRUS: Conferences at Malta and Yalta, III: 621; Churchill I (1948:308); “From Ivan Maisky’s Diary,” in Rzheshevskii (2004:498).
24 Zubok (2007:14).
25 See the estimates in Kindleberger (1991:77–80) and Maier (1991:18).
26 Reynolds (2006:45).
27 Murphy, memorandum, “Meeting of the Economic Subcommittee,” July 20, 1945, in FRUS: The Conference of Berlin (The Potsdam Conference), II: 141–42.
28 Isaacson and Thomas (1986 [2012]:291); Harriman to Stettinius, April 4, 1945, in FRUS, 1945, V: 817–20.
29 Harrington (2012:32).
30 Isaacson and Thomas (1986 [2012]:307). The Soviet understanding was that “the Soviet and American delegations have agreed [that] the total amount of reparations . . . should comprise $20 billion, and that 50 percent of this amount should be due to the USSR”: “The Crimean Conference of 1945, 11 Febr. 1945,” AVP RF, Fond 06, op. 7a, P. 59, file 32, p. 6.
31 Cairncross (1986:95, 99); Sir Wilfred Eady to Hugh Dalton, July 26, 1945, T23/263, Treasury Papers, UKNA.
32 Warburg (August 10, 1946:92–93).
33 Gimbel (1976:143-144).
34 Smith (1990:408).
35 Clay to Echols, May 2, 1946, CC4277, in Smith I (1974:203–4); Cairncross (1986:154); Maier (1991:22); Smith (1990:350–51).
36 Cairncross (1986:155).
37 Clay to Echols, July 19, 1946, in Smith I (1974:238–39).
38 Smith to Byrnes, June 21, 1946, in FRUS, 1946, VI: 763–65.
39 Clay, press conference, Berlin, May 27, 1946, in Smith I (1974:218–23).
40 Gimbel (1976:127–40) and Smith (1990:350–55) argue passionately that Clay’s anger was directed almost entirely at the French, and that anti-Communists in the State Department were at fault for transforming the episode into a Cold War confrontation with the Soviets. Maier (1991:22) disagrees. Clay’s correspondence and interviews never point a finger at one to the exclusion of the other.
41 Cable dated June 10, 1946; Rostow II (1981:138–48).
42 Mayer (March 10, 1947:19).
43 Clay to Byrnes, memorandum, “Internationalization of the Ruhr,” April 22, 1946, in Smith I (1974:192–201).
44 See, for example, Smith (1990:374).
45 Byrnes, “Stuttgart Address: Restatement of U.S. Policy on Germany,” September 6, 1946, in Senate Committee on Foreign Relations (1959:42).
46 Gimbel (1976:161–62).
47 Kennan I (1967:333).
48 Special Report of the Military Governor, “Economic Data on Potsdam Germany,” September 1947, Folder: “Economic Data on Potsdam, Germany,” Box 12, Military Government of Germany File, Panuch Papers, Truman Library: 13.
49 Byrnes, “Stuttgart Address: Restatement of U.S. Policy on Germany,” September 6, 1946, in Senate Committee on Foreign Relations (1959:37).
50 Smith (1990:406).
51 Judt (2005:116).
52 Bidault (1965 [1967]:88).
53 Raack (January 1993:59).
54 “Record of conversation of V. M. Molotov with French Ambassador Georges Catroux,” February 19, 1947, AVP RF, Fond 06, op. 9, P. 1, file 20, p. 35.
55 Bidault (1965 [1967]:87).
56 Bohlen (1973:262).
57 Smith (1950:219).
58 Smith (1990:414, 425) is unstinting in the view that Marshall had written off cooperation with Moscow prior to his arrival there, yet his own biography subject, Clay, contradicts it in interviews with him, blaming the Soviets instead: “General Marshall . . . arrived to meet the Russians when they were absolutely unwilling to negotiate anything. . . . I really believe that after the Moscow conference, General Marshall had no real hope of success” (p. 421).
59 Zelikow (July 1997:107–12); Yergin (1977:296); Acheson, statement before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, April 1, 1947, in Senate Committee on Foreign Relations (1973:95).
60 Judt (2005:119).
61 Isaacson and Thomas (1986 [2012]:403). The Soviet record of Stalin’s conversation with Marshall is here: AVP RF, Fond 06, op. 9, P. 71, file 1104, pp. 29–39; or RGASPI, Fond 558, op. 11, file 374, pp. 147–58.
62 Nickolaevsky (1995:160–61). It is not clear from police records, however, that Stalin was arrested for these specific crimes—at least not officially. I am grateful to Svetlana Chervonnaya for pointing out the discrepancies in various Soviet accounts.
63 Stalin II (1946:290–367); Booker III (2005:694); Plokhy (2010:56–57); Conquest (1991:6–28). On Stalin’s youth and early career, see also the outstanding biography by Kotkin I (2014).
64 Kennan I (1967:279).
65 Bullock (1983:25).
66 Conquest (1991:327); Djilas (1962).
67 Smith to Marshall, March 6, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, IV: 818–19.
68 Djilas (1962:69–70).
69 Plokhy (2012:77–79); Eden (1965:595).
70 “Memorandum of Conversation,” April 15, 1947, in FRUS, 1947, II: 337. The American account of the discussion, which I have quoted from, differs in modest respects from the Soviet one: AVP RF, Fond 06, op. 9, P. 71, file 1104, pp. 29–39.
71 “Memorandum of Conversation,” April 15, 1947, in FRUS, 1947, II: 337–39.
72 Isaacson and Thomas (1986 [2012]:403).
73 “Memorandum of Conversation,” April 15, 1947, in FRUS, 1947, II: 339.
74 “Memorandum of Conversation,” April 15, 1947, in FRUS, 1947, II: 340.
75 Bland and Stoler VI (2013:100).
76 Novikov (1989).
77 “Memorandum of Conversation,” April 15, 1947, in FRUS, 1947, II: 342.
78 Zubok (2007:66); Zubok and Pleshakov (1996:50); Pechatnov and Edmondson (2001:108–10).
79 Grieder (2000:12); Djilas (1962:139); Pechatnov (2010:103); Pechatnov and Edmondson (2001:109).
80 Zubok (2007:71); Raack (January 1993:58).
81 Plokhy (2010:92–96, 368–69).
82 Frank (2001:241); Taylor (2006); Reedy (August
27, 1950); Rodden (2002:32); Kempe (2011).
83 Macintyre (2014:88–89).
84 Mastny (1996:24).
85 The actual German word is Sadisten. Friedensburg, memo, August 20, 1948, Bundesarchiv Koblenz N1114/34.
86 Record of I. V. Stalin’s conversation with the leaders of the SED Central Committee, January 31, 1947, RGASPI, Fond 558, op. 11, file 303, pp. 9–11.
87 Pechatnov and Edmondson (2001:120–21).
88 Record of I. V. Stalin’s conversation with the leaders of the SED Central Committee, January 31, 1947, RGASPI, Fond 558, op. 11, file 303, pp. 9–11.
89 Pechatnov and Edmondson (2001:120–21).
90 Record of I. V. Stalin’s conversation with the leaders of the SED Central Committee, January 31, 1947, RGASPI, Fond 558, op. 11, file 303, pp. 9–11.
91 Steil (2013:265–66, 274–76); Plokhy (2010:98–99); Briefing Book Paper, “The Treatment of Germany,” January 12, 1945, in FRUS: Conferences at Malta and Yalta, I: 187; Clemens (1970:29–30); Buhite (1986:21–28).
92 Vandenberg (1952:123).
93 Behrman (2007:31–32); Judt (2005:82–83).
94 Gimbel (1968:121–22); Dulles, speech, January 17, 1947, in Vital Speeches of the Day (February 1947:234–36); Pogue IV (1987:174).
95 “Memorandum of Conversation,” April 15, 1947, in FRUS, 1947, II: 341–43.
96 Plokhy (2010:30, 241–51); Bohlen (1973:192); Harriman and Abel (1975:412–13); Leahy (1950:315–16); Stettinius (1949:215); Moran (2002:283).
97 Policy Planning Staff, “Resume of World Situation,” PPS/13, November 6, 1947, in FRUS, 1947, I: 771.
98 Marshall to U.S. Embassy in London, February 20, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 72.
99 Behrman (2007:39–40); Gaddis (2011:264); Cray (1990 [2000]:604–5); “Memorandum of Conversation,” April 15, 1947, in FRUS, 1947, II: 344; Record of conversation of I. V. Stalin with the U.S. Secretary of State G. C. Marshall, April 15, 1947, AVP RF, Fond 06, op. 9, P. 71, file 1104, pp. 29–39.
100 Niculae, Kumar, Boyd-Graber, and Danescu-Niculescu-Mizil (June 2015). See also Chabris (February 19, 2016).
101 “The worse, the better” referred to the supposed revolutionary benefits of deteriorating social conditions in Russia.
102 Marshall, interview with Harry B. Price, February 18, 1953, Folder: “January–June, 1953,” Box 1, Oral History Interview File, Price Papers, Truman Library.
103 Murphy (1964:307).
104 New York Times (January 10, 1978); Roberts (February 11, 1978).
CHAPTER 4: PLAN
1 Marshall, interview with Harry B. Price, October 30, 1952, Folder: “August–October, 1952,” Box 1, Oral History Interview File, Price Papers, Truman Library.
2 Cray (1990 [2000]:606).
3 Reynolds (2006:281).
4 Halle (1967:134).
5 Marshall, radio address, April 28, 1947, in Bland and Stoler VI (2013:121); Cray (1990 [2000]:606).
6 Italics added. “Report of the Special ‘Ad Hoc’ Committee of the State-War-Navy Coordinating Committee,” April 21, 1947, in FRUS, 1947, III: 210–15.
7 Marshall, interview with Forrest Pogue, Tape 19M, November 20, 1956, Interviews and Reminiscences for Forrest C. Pogue, George C. Marshall Foundation: 21–22; Crowder (2015:179).
8 Kennan, interview with Harry B. Price, February 19, 1953, Folder: “January–June, 1953,” Box 1, Oral History Interview File, Price Papers, Truman Library; Crowder (2015:178).
9 McCullough (1992:561).
10 Chace (1998:162).
11 Kennan I (1967:327–28); Behrman (2007:56).
12 Kennan (1996:144).
13 Office of the Historian, State Department: https://history.state.gov/milestones/1899-1913/hay-and-china.
14 Isaacson and Thomas (1986 [2012]:234).
15 Gaddis (2011:265).
16 Isaacson and Thomas (1986 [2012]) called Acheson, Bohlen, Harriman, Kennan, Lovett, and McCloy “The Wise Men.”
17 Steil (2013:117); Acheson (1969:28).
18 Isaacson and Thomas (1986 [2012]:235).
19 McCullough (1992:561); Steil (2013:272).
20 Isaacson and Thomas (1986 [2012]:236); Steil (2013:266–73).
21 Gimbel (1968:1); Murphy (1964:251).
22 Neiberg (2015:31).
23 Winik (2015:423).
24 See, for example, Beschloss (2002:354); Blum III (1967:463–64); and Steil (2013:266, 274–76).
25 Isaacson and Thomas (1986 [2012]:237–38).
26 Gaddis (1982 [2005]:56–57). See also Luttwak (1976:19, 130–31, 137).
27 Kennan (“X”) (July 1947:581). Italics added.
28 Gaddis (1982 [2005]:57, 59); Marshall to Lovett, April 23, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, III: 103.
29 Gaddis (1982 [2005]:61–62); Forrestal to Chan Gurney, December 8, 1947, in Millis (1951:350–51).
30 Isaacson and Thomas (1986 [2012]:306, 406, 248).
31 Gaddis (1982 [2005]:58); Marshall to Lovett, April 23, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, III: 103. Truman, speech to Inter-American Conference, Rio de Janeiro, September 2, 1947, in Public Papers of the Presidents: Harry Truman, 1947: 430; Lovett, memorandum of conversation with Huseyin Ragip Baydur, Turkish Ambassador, July 21, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, III: 197.
32 Belair (January 16, 1948).
33 Gaddis (1982 [2005]:58); Forrestal to Chan Gurney, December 8, 1947, in Millis (1951:350–51). Italics added.
34 Undated Truman memorandum, probably early 1949, Folder: “Miscellaneous, 1945–53,” Box 131, Bureau of the Budget File, Subject File, President’s Secretary’s Files, Truman Papers, Truman Library; Gaddis (1982 [2005]:23).
35 Gaddis (1982 [2005]:62).
36 Gaddis (1982 [2005]:66, 69); Acheson to U.S. Embassy in Belgrade, February 25, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, V: 873; U.S. chiefs of mission to satellite states, “Conclusions and Recommendations of the London Conference of October 24–26,” October 26, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, V: 31.
37 Acheson (1969:227).
38 Jones (1955:24).
39 Acheson, speech, “The Requirements of Reconstruction,” May 8, 1947, in Department of State Bulletin, 1947, XVI: 991–94.
40 Jones (1955:30).
41 Acheson (1969:228).
42 Albright (March 19, 1947:1).
43 Haas (2016:2–6).
44 Vandenberg (1952:10).
45 Vandenberg (1952:10).
46 Haas (2016:27).
47 Haas (2016:4, 46); Vandenberg (1952:165–66).
48 Isaacson and Thomas (1986 [2012]:408); Steel (1980:440–42).
49 Policy Planning Staff, “Top Secret Supplement to the Report of the Policy Planning Staff of July 23, 1947, entitled ‘Certain Aspects of the European Recovery Program from the United States Standpoint,’ ” PPS/4: https://www.state.gov/documents/organization/179131.pdf; Mee (1984:90–91).
50 Nitze (1989:51–52).
51 Acheson (1969:230).
52 Jones (1955:247).
53 Clayton, memorandum, “The European Crisis,” May 27, 1947, in FRUS, 1947, III: 230–32.
54 Clayton, memorandum, “The European Crisis,” May 27, 1947, in FRUS, 1947, III: 230–32 (italics in original); Clay memorandum on the Marshall Plan, undated [1947], Folder: “Marshall Plan Memos, 1947,” Box 60, General File, Clayton Papers, Truman Library; Acheson (1969:232); Cray (1990[2000]:611); Thompson (2009:73).
55 Truman I (1955:236).
56 Arkes (1972:25–26); Stimson to Truman, “Memorandum for the President,” July 16, 1945, in FRUS: The Conference of Berlin (the Potsdam Conference), II: 755–57; Stimson to Truman, memorandum, “The Rehabilitation of Europe as a Whole,” undated [likely July 22, 1945], in FRUS: The Conference of Berlin (the Potsdam Conference), II: 808–9.
57 Reston (May 25, 1947).
58 The Economist (May 31, 1947).
59 Smith (1990:25).
60 Harold Boeschenstein, onetime War Production Board deputy director and, later, Owens-Corning chairman and CEO, quoted in Smith (1990:581).
61 Paul Cabot, a former deputy
director of the War Production Board’s conservation division, quoted in Smith (1990:158). See also the comments of Averell Harriman (Smith [1990:4]).
62 Smith (1990:212, 215–16, 219, 396); Washington Post (March 31, 1945); Clay (1950:7).
63 Smith (1990:5–6).
64 Smith (1990:233, 238).
65 Clay succeeded General Joseph McNarney on March 15, 1947. McNarney had succeeded Eisenhower as European Theater commander in November 1945, also becoming military governor of Germany and Austria at that time.
66 Gimbel (1968:148–51); Clay to Marshall, “German Economic Recovery,” May 2, 1947, in Smith I (1974:346–49).
67 Smith (1990:233).
68 Clay to Oliver Echols and Howard Petersen, “Food Situation in U.S. Zone,” March 27, 1946, in Smith I (1974:183–84).
69 Judt (2005:128).
70 Feigel (2016:84–84, 239, 242, 252–64); Annan (1997:xii).
71 Smith (1990:245).
72 Backer (1983:148–49).
73 Smith (1990:290–91, 341–49); Backer (1983:148–49). Smith (1990:278) argues that Clay was “dedicated to FDR’s goal of meaningful cooperation with the Soviet Union, and [he] rejected bellicose advice from American diplomats that confrontation was inevitable.” But this portrait is belied by Clay’s own words in discussion with Smith: “I’m not sure we could ever have made four-power government work over a long period of time. The differences between our systems were just too great” (Smith [1990:261]).
74 Smith (1990:261).
75 Smith (1990:258); Clay (signed Eisenhower) to Joint Chiefs of Staff, FWD 23724, June 6, 1945, in Smith I (1974:18–20).
76 Smith (1990:416).
77 Smith (1990:235).
78 Joint Report of the United States and United Kingdom Military Governors, “The European Recovery Program,” September 1948, Folder: “European Recovery Program,” Box 12, Military Government of Germany File, Panuch Papers, Truman Library: 2.
79 Acheson (1969:232).
80 Kennan, interview with Harry B. Price, February 19, 1953, Folder: “January–June, 1953,” Box 1, Oral History Interview File, Price Papers, Truman Library; Crowder (2015:181).
81 Marshall, interview with Harry B. Price, February 18, 1953, Folder: “January–June, 1953,” Box 1, Oral History Interview File, Price Papers, Truman Library.
82 Kennan, interview with Harry B. Price, February 19, 1953, Folder: “January–June, 1953,” Box 1, Oral History Interview File, Price Papers, Truman Library.