“Oh, shit,” the President muttered. Kazumi Nagai was fluent in English, so the President needed no translator—no reason to postpone taking this call. He picked up the phone: “Mr. Prime Minister, this is President Martindale. How are you today, sir?”
“I am fine, Mr. President, and I hope I find you well,” Nagai responded. His speech was clipped and sharp, yet still respectful enough.
“You are calling concerning the news reports about the attacks against Chinese property, supposedly by American and Taiwanese forces.”
“Yes, Mr. President,” Nagai said sharply. “I was surprised and dismayed by the photographs—we knew nothing of such aircraft, and are very concerned that it was employed by you in this monstrous attack. Is it true that the aircraft photographed by Chinese reconnaissance planes that have been shown on CNN belongs to the United States, and was it involved in the attack on the passenger ferry in the Formosa Strait?”
“It’s true, Mr. Prime Minister,” Martindale replied. “I can explain further, as long as we are guaranteed full confidentiality of all the information during this call.”
“I agree, Mr. President,” Nagai said. “Please continue.”
“It’s an experimental long-range reconnaissance and attack plane, derived from the B-52 bomber,” the President explained. “The same plane was involved in the skirmish that resulted in the Chinese nuclear missile attack, but our plane did not not have anything to do with the nuclear attack, except to intercept at least one of the Chinese missiles while in flight.”
“Intercept? How?”
“That’s not important right now, Mr. Prime Minister,” the President said. “Revealing all the capabilities of the plane has nothing to do with the two incidents.”
“It would be better if you allowed us to make that determination, sir,” Nagai said acidly. “But please continue.”
“In the most recent incident, the plane was on patrol when it detected a multiple missile launch from a nearby vessel. The aircrew incorrectly identified the vessel as a Chinese warship. One of our surface vessels was hit by a rocket-powered torpedo and was disabled. Fearing a second attack would destroy the crippled vessel, the armed reconnaissance aircraft returned fire.”
“But if it was not a warship that initiated the attack, how could the aircrew launch an attack on an unarmed passenger ferry?” Nagai asked.
“This is as monstrous a mistake as your accidental downing of the Iranian Airbus over the Persian Gulf! ”
“Mr. Prime Minister, this was an accident precipitated by China by making the ferry look like a warship on electronic sensors, and by launching some kind of missile attack from the direction of the ferry, perhaps by submarine,” Martindale said. “I assure you, this accident will not happen again. The aircraft have been recalled, and an investigation has been launched.”
“Will the results of this investigation be kept secret, as the existence and use of this aircraft has been?”
“i’ll see to it that you get a copy of the results of the investigation as soon as it is prepared,” Martindale said. “I only ask that this matter remain totally confidential. I hope I’ve answered all your questions. Thank you for—”
“Mr. President, I must convey the thoughts of many in my party concerning American military activities recently,” Nagai interjected, his voice much sterner now. “It appears that you are very quick to initiate military actions, especially covert, stealthy actions, versus negotiations and consultations with your allies. Many members of my government, including members of all political parties, have expressed outrage over your activities. First, you attacked Iran without consultations and without a declaration of war; now you are embroiled in a conflict with China. In neither case were any of your friends or allies notified or consulted.”
“All I can say now, Mr. Prime Minister,” Martindale said, “is that my actions were necessary and vital to protect our national security interests. Your government was notified of our plans to initiate military action against Iran because of its attacks on Persian Gulf states—I’m sorry, but I did not feel it necessary to explain our plans in detail at the time. The important thing was that a wider conflict was avoided and peace was restored.”
“Restored? Not when oil has nearly doubled in price over the past four months; not when oil shipments to Japan have been cut by almost ten percent!” Nagai argued hotly.
“If Iran had been successful in closing off the Persian Gulf and destroying the oil-producing capabilities of the Persian Gulf coast states, what do you think you’d be paying for whatever oil you got from there, Mr. Nagai?”
“My government is also outraged over your decision to support the independence of Chinese Taipei,” Nagai said, rapidly switching to a different topic. “That was an ill-advised thing to do, Mr. President. Declaring your support for a rebel Chinese province, one that is in conflict with many of your Asian allies, including Japan, was a very unwise course of action.”
“Again, Mr. Prime Minister, I thought it was‘best to act quickly in the best interests of our national security,” Martindale said. “Taiwan’s declaration of independence was a total surprise to me, as was China’s swift action to form a naval carrier task force to threaten or destroy Taiwan or its territories.”
“Your decision to take Chinese Taipei’s side,” Nagai said, again using the term “Chinese Taipei” instead of “Taiwan” or “the Republic of China”—that usage spoke volumes about the depth of Japan’s resentment toward Taiwan—“has inflamed the anger of many in my country and my government. They feel America no longer supports Japan’s vital national interests. It would be difficult for my country to support America’s vital interests in Asia if you no longer support ours.”
“What are you saying, Mr. Prime Minister?” the President asked. “America will always be a strong and loyal ally of Japan.”
“I am conveying a warning to you, Mr. President, that America could be made to feel most unwelcome at its bases located on Japanese soil if it is ever perceived that Japan’s national interests are not being served,” Nagai said in carefully measured words.
“You’re threatening American bases in Japan if we continue to support the Republic of China or defend it against mainland China?” Martindale said, trying hard not to get angry or excited. “Is that what you’re telling me, Mr. Prime Minister?”
“China is a valuable trading partner with Japan—we have put aside our historical differences in favor of growth and prosperity for the future,” Nagai responded. “Any actions, either against China or on behalf of Chinese Taipei, that might provoke further economic or military retaliation against Japan would be considered a hostile act against us. The people of Japan would become infuriated if it was learned that American warplanes or warships staging out of bases in Japan were responsible for an economic, political, diplomatic, or military calamity befalling Japan. In such a case, for example, access to those bases might be restricted to the supply of fuel and provisions only, not the supply of weapons.”
“You’re saying that if we continue our actions, Japan will prohibit American military forces from on-loading weapons for our ships and planes? That’s what I’m hearing from you, Mr. Prime Minister.”
“That is all I have to say on the subject, Mr. President. I hope that we, your true friends in Asia, are consulted before any other situations arise. What will your response be to the attack on your warships, Mr. President?”
“We will be sending the aircraft carrier Independence and its escorts from Yokosuka to the Formosa Strait to assist in recovery efforts.”
“The aircraft carrier? Do you think that is wise, Mr. President?” Nagai asked, with a tone of voice that revealed his obvious displeasure at the news. “It will be considered a threatening act against China, a retaliatory action.”
“We have a right and a duty to protect our vessels on the high seas, Mr. Prime Minister,” Martindale said. “The frigates were attacked by Chinese fighters and attack planes, including bombers.”
“Obviously reacting to the attack on their passenger ferry—a purely defensive move,” Nagai interjected. “Sending your aircraft carrier now will only be considered a hostile act and a serious escalation of hostilities. May I suggest sending a support or rescue ship that does not have a strike capability? It will take your carrier several days to travel to the scene of the incident—other vessels can be dispatched much quicker.” “We will send whatever vessels or equipment we feel necessary to save lives and preserve our property and rights of travel on the high seas,” the President said flatly. “If it takes a carrier, we’ll send one—or two, or three if necessary. But we will not be chased out of any international waterways.”
“That, sir, sounds like the words of an angry and desperate man,” Nagai said bitterly. “Again, you flaunt your military power without regard to whom it might affect. Sir, with all due respect, I suggest you leave the Independence in port and assist your stricken warships by some other means. Japan will be pleased to assist you—we have salvage ships powerful enough to take your frigate in tow and keep it afloat, and we can provide them to you immediately. We even know that Chinese Taipei has salvage and rescue ships that can assist, and they can be on the scene within hours instead of days. But sending in the carrier Independence will only be seen as a hostile act, perhaps even an act of war. My government cannot support such a decision.”
“I’m sorry we can’t count on your support, Mr. Prime Minister,” the President said. “But we will do whatever we feel is right and necessary.”
“Can you at least assure me that you will not consider retaliatory or preemptive military actions against the People’s Republic of China? ”
“It never was my intention to initiate any offensive military actions against China, sir,” Martindale responded. “All of the events in the past two weeks have occurred because of China’s aggressive actions against the Republic of China and against America. Our moves have been in reaction to Chinese threats and intimidation. If it becomes necessary to act, we will. But I am not sending any warships into the Formosa Strait to intimidate, aggravate, threaten, or attack anyone. The carrier Independence will assist in recovery efforts only, and we will not seek retaliation. We will attack only if we come under attack.”
“I hope not, Mr. President—I hope not,” Nagai said. “I have one last question, Mr. President.”
“What’s that?”
“Sir, we have been notified by our intelligence services that you have convened your Strategic Command’s Combined Task Forces battle staff,” Nagai said. The President’s jaw dropped open in absolute surprise. “We know that this battle staff is convened to organize and equip your country’s strategic nuclear forces.”
“Mr. Prime Minister, I cannot confirm such a thing.”
“I understand, Mr. President,” Nagai said. “I only hope that if this was true, that it does not mean that the United States is traveling down the slippery slope to a nuclear confrontation with the People’s Republic of China. The movement of the Independence carrier battle group into the Formosa Strait will certainly elevate hostilities to a dangerous level already—if it became known that America was also considering reactivating its nuclear deterrent forces, the level of tensions worldwide would increase tremendously. Even worse, if it became known that the Independence or any of its escorts carried tactical nuclear attack weapons—”
“Mr. Nagai, I don’t like what you’re insinuating,” Martindale interjected angrily. “I will not discuss the disposition of any of our strategic systems, and I will not tolerate veiled threats from you to pass along incorrect or misleading information designed to enbarrass the United States or further your own political agenda. I advise you to reconsider your actions very carefully. Thank you, and good night.” The President slammed the phone back on its cradle. “No more calls from that rat bastard Nagai, got it, Jerrod? How dare he deliver ultimatums to me!” The President sat fuming for several long moments; then: “I want to talk with President Lee and President Jiang as soon as possible, President Lee first.”
“The ambassador from the PRC, Hou Qingze, is standing by for you, sir, calling from New York,” Jerrod Hale said. “Line two. He’s been on hold since you took the call from Nagai.”
The President nodded, impressed—and even less impressed now by Taiwan’s silence. He took several deep breaths to wash the anger out of his head, then hit the button and picked up the phone: “Ambassador Hou, this is Kevin Martindale. Sorry to have kept you waiting.”
“Not at all, Mr. President,” Ambassador Hou Qingze responded in very good English, with a hint of a British accent. “I am honored to speak with you tonight. I first wish to convey the deep sadness and regret of President Jiang and the government and people of the People’s Republic of China over the recent conflict between the Nationalists and our country.”
“Does your country have an explanation, Ambassador?”
“I am sorry to say, Mr. President, that the People’s Liberation Army Navy forces overreacted to certain actions by the rebel Nationalist terrorist forces,” Hou said. “My government deeply regrets our actions and is very embarrassed. ”
“Overreacted? You fired nuclear missiles at Quemoy, sir.”
“My government strenuously denies that we launched any nuclear weapons at anyone, Mr. President,” Hou said sincerely.
“We’ve heard your denials several times a day for the past two weeks, sir,” the President said. “It doesn’t change the facts—we know the missiles were fired by your ships.”
“We must respectfully disagree, sir,” Ambassador Hou said. “But the purpose of my call, Mr. President, if I may, was not about the past conflict, but to explain our actions in this recent string of attacks.
“The torpedo attacks by the Taiwanese submarine shadowing the Mao Zedong carrier group could have been an accidental firing, or an in- solated rogue attack. The sudden appearance of a Taiwanese submarine so close to our ships, after our nations had agreed not to sail any submarines in the Strait during the carrier group’s transit, caused our naval forces to sound an attack alarm,” Hou said rather contritely. “We were totally caught unawares, and our forces reacted.
“Further, it now appears that the so-called bombing attack by the Taiwanese transport plane was merely a navigational error. The pilot apparently had instrument problems caused by a nearby electrical storm that caused him to cross into our airspace, which alerted our air defenses, who then perceived the incursion as a prelude to an attack, to which we responded by launching a counterattack,” Hou continued. “Again, our forces were caught unaware and surprised, which, combined with the announced attack on the carrier group just minutes earlier, caused confusion and fear, and so we overreacted. On behalf of my country, I am deeply sorry for this unwarranted action against the people of Matsu, and beg forgiveness.”
The President was silent for several long moments. It appeared as if the Chinese had come clean—they were admitting that they screwed up! Their explanation seemed totally plausible: two isolated incidents, both sparked by Taiwan, occurring only moments apart, caused the Chinese military to surge forward. “I see,” the President said on the phone, believing Hou but not yet willing to admit it. “What are your country’s intentions now?”
“My government informs me that all further troop movements have been halted against Matsu, and no further attacks will be initiated,” Ambassador Hou replied. “We regret the loss of life and the destruction of property, but under the circumstances I believe our reaction, dishonorable and unfortunate as it was, was fully justified. We shall transmit our apology to the Nationalist government immediately. And, in the interest of peace, we assure you and the rest of the world that the crew of the Taiwanese sub will be treated fairly. We are not in a state of war, but the sailors of the submarine that attacked our carrier will be treated as if they are prisoners of war—with respect and fairness. My government will also agree to submit the matter to an international tribunal.”
The President was im
pressed and heartened at these proposals; it definitely appeared as if China was ready and willing to compromise and not isolate themselves. Were they being perhaps too willing? the President thought. “May we get a copy of your withdrawal orders and a written account of China’s actions in this conflict?” he asked.
“I shall have it delivered to Secretary of State Hartman’s office and to the White House within the hour, Mr. President,” Hou replied.
The President was taken aback by the openness and cooperation Hou showed—of course, it all remained to be seen, but he was still surprised by China’s apparent forthrightness. “Very well, Mr. Ambassador,” the President said. “We look forward to your continuing cooperation in this very serious matter. ”
“I pledge my country’s sincere cooperation,” Hou said. He paused for a moment, as if embarrassed to bring up the point; then: “I have been instructed to ask you, Mr. President, for some sort of explanation for the horrible and tragic event that occurred near Quemoy a short while ago.” He heard Martindale pause at the question, then hastily added, “If you wish not to speak of it now, sir, I understand. There are delicate and critical factors to be analyzed.”
“There is still a lot of confusion over exactly what happened, Mr. Ambassador, in the incidents near Hong Kong and Matsu as well as the one near Quemoy,” the President replied. “But since you’ve been honest with us, Mr. Ambassador, we’ll be honest with you, as long as this information is held in the strictest confidence.”
“Of course, Mr. President,” Hou responded.
“The attack on the passenger ferry was prompted by a missile attack on two U.S. Navy frigates,” the President said. “An armed patrol plane flying in the same area detected the attack on our ships and, mistakingly believing the missiles came from the ferry, returned fire. Our sensors reported that the ferry was a warship, and it was on a convergent course with our patrol ships, so when the missile attacks occurred, our patrol plane commenced an immediate counterattack.”
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