Scimitar's Glory: A Swordships Odyssey Novel
Page 11
Both Koenig and Soriya were stunned. The cumulative vector analysis error had not been taken into consideration during the astrogational planning for the gauntlet mission prior to Excalibur leaving 7th Fleet. Now that the AI had pointed out the math, Koenig understood why the numbers were so godawful. If the odds of making each jump was 50/50, then the odds of making the first jump were 1 in 2, for the first two jumps 1 in 4, for the first three jumps 1 in 8 and so on. The 96.6% figure that the AI had just given was not the chance of missing all 16 jumps, but rather just one. And if it didn’t happen until the 21st jump, it would still be a disaster.
“Is the solution to getting each jump’s miss probability below 5% making a large detour on a regular basis to get better bearing angles?” asked Koenig.
“With sufficiently wide detours, the answer is yes,” said the AI.
Soriya beat Koenig to the obvious next question. “If Excalibur makes the necessary detours, how much longer will it take to arrive back in human space?”
“Approximately 2.1 months past the current ETA.”
“Would that leave enough time for a reinforcement fleet to get to MR66 before 7th Fleet gets there?” asked Koenig.
“Negative. 7th Fleet is expecting to arrive at MR66 34 days earlier.”
“Damn!” said Koenig. “They won’t wait that long because they have no way of knowing that the reinforcement fleet is coming at all. They’ll wait a while—a week, maybe two—and then Dejanus will take the Fleet into Tong space and try to push their way through.”
After a pause, Soriya said, “It’s too bad we couldn’t extract astro data from the Arenian computers. Even knowing which systems their colonies were in might have helped.”
Koenig said nothing for a while as he looked at the display, which was still showing the tactical situation around the dead colony planet.
“There are still two Arenian ships in orbit that are not warships. I wonder if we might be able to access their astrogational databases. Who knows how far the Arenians explored before the plague hit. What is your assessment of our chances of being able to access their data, Astro?”
“Considering that we have not yet learned to translate their astrogational terms and units of measure, the probability of understanding their data is low even if we could access it.”
Koenig closed his eyes and tried to hold back the sense of despair that threatened to overwhelm him. Not only was it looking impossible to get home in time to send help to the Fleet, it was looking damned difficult just to get the ship home at all, unless they turned around and tried to catch up with the rest of the Fleet for the journey along the milk run.
“What about…” Soriya trailed off in thought, and Koenig waited for her to finish her sentence. “What about trying to re-activate the two Arenian freighters like we did the wing ships?”
Koenig shook his head in confusion. “I don’t see how that’s possible given that the freighters, as you call them, aren’t automated like the wing ships. And even if we could somehow do that, how does it help us?”
Soriya took her time answering. “Well, if we could get them re-activated and programmed the way we want, we could send them to the nearest colony system. As they line up for the jump, we probably could determine which star they were aiming for. We could then get there with a series of shorter jumps and see what’s there. Maybe some Arenians are still living there, and if there are, they may be able to help us access their astro data and figure out how to translate it into something we can use. Depending on where that colony is, we may get the added benefit of the wide detour we would need to make a few more gauntlet jumps safely.”
“That seems like a lot of ifs,” said Koenig.
“Yes, but we don’t really have a lot of alternatives, do we?”
“No, not really,” said Koenig after a pause. “Okay, I’m putting you in charge of the re-activation project. Put a team together and get started.”
Soriya grinned. “Yessir!”
The XO’s initial enthusiasm gradually diminished over the following week as she and her team of technicians struggled to overcome the obstacles. It took two days just to find a way to get access to the interior of the Arenian freighters, another three days to figure out how to access the ship’s computer system, and two more days to figure out how to connect to the freighter systems the re-activation devices that had been used for the wing ships. It was the eighth day when Soriya reported to Koenig.
“We’re ready to test the re-activation of one freighter. We think we’ve got the device programmed correctly to tell the freighter’s auto-pilot where to go. The ship has no weapons that could threaten us, so we don’t need to move off to a safe distance. The execute command is on your #1 display now.”
Koenig nodded as he looked closely at the XO. She had bags under her eyes from lack of sleep, and there was now a nervous twitch in her left eyelid. He shifted his gaze to his #1 display and reached out to touch the screen where the ‘Execute’ sign was flashing. Seconds later the main display pinged and updated the tactical situation. The freighter, which was now a flashing green icon, was beginning to move.
“Astro, I want Excalibur to keep pace with the moving freighter,” said Koenig. The AI acknowledged the order. As the freighter began to accelerate, so did Excalibur. Koenig hoped the Arenian freighter did not have acceleration superior to his ship. That turned out to be a correct assumption, but the alien ship was able to accelerate faster than a human star freighter could have.
It didn’t take long for the freighter to settle down to a vector that looked like a pre-jump trajectory. The astro AI was able to determine which star the freighter was aiming for, and the distance to that star shocked Koenig and Soriya.
“34 light years? To a small, yellow sun target? What would be the miss probability if Excalibur attempted that jump?” asked Koenig.
“61.8%” answered the AI.
“I’m shocked that the Arenians would design an auto-pilot system that would attempt a jump that risky without asking for confirmation from an Arenian crewmember,” said Koenig.
“Maybe it is asking, and there’s no one there to respond,” suggest Soriya.
“Then the auto-pilot should abort the jump. That doesn’t look like a ship that’s aborting a hyper-jump.”
“We’ll know in a few minutes when the ship reaches jump velocity,” said Soriya.”
As soon as the freighter hit the minimum velocity needed, it jumped away.
“My God, it didn’t even try to minimize the OAE. Our astro AI would have spent hours getting the vector as precise as possible,” said Koenig. He shrugged. “Well, let’s figure out how we’re going to get to that system. Have you got a path figured out yet, Astro?”
“Affirmative. The route is now on the main display.” Koenig gave a silent whistle when he saw the path. It would take seven jumps to get to the system that Astro had designated as F2. All seven were short enough to be considered routine.
“Will this detour to F2 give us the data necessary to bring the G6 jump down to less than 5% chance of a miss?” asked Soriya.
“Affirmative; however, the final miss probability can not be calculated until that bearing data has been obtained.”
Koenig took a deep breath. “Well then, let’s get started.”
Chapter Nine:
It took 177 hours to get to F2, which did contain a life-bearing planet. Upon closer inspection, Excalibur’s sensors detected six ships in orbit, but there were no EM transmissions. Two of the ships were wing ships.
“Well, well. At least the Arenian auto-pilot picked the right system to head for,” said Koenig. “Astro, take the ship down to a low orbit and scan the surface for any signs of colonization and activity. Oh, and what’s the miss probability now for a jump to G6?”
“A low orbit and surface scan is acknowledged. A jump to G6 from this system would entail a miss probability of 3.2%.”
“That low! I wasn’t expecting it to get that low. Having a bearing angle from here made
that much of a difference?” asked Koenig.
“Negative. The lower number is the result of improved astrogational data on G6, plus the fact that the F2 system is significantly closer to G6 than G5D.”
“Ah, I see,” said Koenig. “What are the odds now for G7, 8 and 9?”
“G7 has a miss probability of 4.5%, G8 is 4.9% and G9 is 5.5%.”
“Just as I suspected,” said Koenig. “This confirms the fact that if we keep having to make wide detours after each long jump, we’ll get home too late to help 7th Fleet. Let’s hope there are some living Arenians down there who can help us access their astro data. Too bad our test freighter missed the system. We already have access to its computers.”
Soriya, who was sitting in the Command Pod, manipulated her console for a few seconds and then said, “Ah, you’re not going to believe this. I can hardly believe it myself, but the freighter we modified did not miss. It’s here in orbit just like we programmed it to do.”
“Are you sure?”
She nodded. “Positive. One of those freighters in orbit is responding to our transmissions via the device that we installed. Even if the other freighters were still powered up, they wouldn’t be able to respond to our telemetry signals like this. That one there”—the display zoomed in to one of the six ships—“is our boy.”
“Well, it did have roughly one chance in three of making it. I guess it got lucky,” said Koenig.
“I, ah, don’t think so,” said Soriya slowly. “The 61.8% miss probability was calculated for Excalibur making the attempt after spending hours lining up for the most precise trajectory we could manage. That freighter spent very little time lining up, and it still made the jump. If we were in that much of a hurry, I’d guess our miss probability would have been a lot higher; maybe over 90%. Either that ship is very lucky, or its jump technology is far better than ours. Given the gravity cannon technology that we don’t have, I’m inclined to say that it’s the latter.”
“Let’s assume you’re right for the moment. Does that help us? It’s not just a question of having the best possible astro data; our ships don’t have the ability to aim that accurately.”
Soriya pondered the question for a while. When she did respond, her voice was hesitant. “I wonder if Excalibur could match an Arenian ship trajectory closely enough to achieve the same kind of jump accuracy or close to it.”
“Interesting idea. What about that, Astro?” asked Koenig.
“It is impossible to provide a precise answer at this time because we don’t know the extent of the Arenian astrogational database. They may not have explored all the way to the end of the gauntlet chain of systems, and it’s highly likely that their jump accuracy will drop off sharply when their ship reaches the edge of their explored space.”
“Then we need to find out how far they’ve explored,” said Soriya. “It may be far enough that we can cover that distance quickly with enough time saved to get the reinforcements back to MR66 in time to meet 7th Fleet.”
“Right, and that depends on finding a living, breathing Arenian on this planet. Let’s revisit this idea after we find out if there are any survivors down there.”
Twenty-four hours later the verdict was in. No survivors. Koenig was convinced that the plague had killed so many people so quickly that those who survived the plague were unable to avoid dying from other causes such as starvation, lack of shelter or perhaps deadly predators. In any case, the colony settlement on this planet was a ghost town too. Attempts by the technical crew to penetrate deeper into the alien astrogational data proved unsuccessful.
When Koenig ordered the technicians to return to Excalibur, Soriya entered the Bridge. “I think there’s a way to use a wing ship to help get us home,” she said. “We attach the same kind of device as we did to the other wing ships, program it to accelerate slowly as it lines up for a jump to G6, and then we match its trajectory as precisely as possible. When it gets to G6, it’ll be programmed to slow down but also keep its vector. We can then determine how accurate that jump was. We do the same thing with the rest of the gauntlet jumps, and when the wing ship accuracy degrades, then we’ll know what the limits of their exploration is. Until we reach that point, we don’t have to make wide detours, and that will save time.”
“That sounds like it could work,” said Koenig. “But why modify a wing ship when we can use the freighter?”
“Two reasons, sir. First, if we can get one of the wing ships back home with us, it can be examined for both its advanced astrogation and weapons technology. The second reason is that I’d like to suggest that we send the freighter back to F1 to help the Arenians rebuild their civilization.”
“If we can gain control of the wing ships, then I have no objection to sending the freighter back to F1, but I noticed you only talked about modifying one wing ship. Why not both?”
“Because we don’t have enough spare equipment to build two relay devices. If we wanted both wing ships, we’d have to cannibalize the freighter’s device, which means we wouldn’t be able to send it back to the Arenians.”
Koenig nodded his understanding. Here was another trade-off decision that he had to make, and it was difficult to weigh the appropriate pros and cons. Helping the Arenians by sending them the freighter would generate some goodwill that might benefit humanity in the future, and it was the morally right thing to do. Taking both wing ships back home would not only make it easier to reverse-engineer their technology, but the extra warship might prove very useful in the war against the Jabs. If only there was some way to accomplish both goals. He said as much to Soriya.
“I don’t see how that’s possible unless…” Her voice trailed off as she stared into space for a few seconds. “There may be a way, but it would be risky. If someone took the shuttle over to the freighter, docked with it and entered the ship’s Bridge, they could try to download the astrogational instructions to the auto-pilot with a timed delay. And then they could detach the device and get back on board the shuttle before the time runs out. The risk is that we’re not really sure if we can program a delay. If it doesn’t work, the freighter will begin to accelerate right away, and the shuttle will be ripped off. The docking collar isn’t designed to hold the shuttle if the larger ship is maneuvering. The techie that we send over there might find themself stuck on that ship.”
Koenig smiled as he shook his head. “No, they won’t. If the delay doesn’t work, Excalibur will disable the freighter’s engines with graser fire. Then the shuttle can dock with it again and pick up the techie. One way or another, we’re taking both wing ships. If we can accomplish that without having to disable the freighter, then the Arenians can have her. Let’s get to work on this, XO.”
It took about an hour to make the preparations. Soriya found one of her technical team willing to volunteer to remove the device from the freighter. Soriya herself asked Koenig for permission to pilot the shuttle. With the shuttle on its way to the freighter, Koenig put the ship on Battle Stations and had the astro AI maneuver the ship so that it was near the freighter and pointed in the same direction.
Rather than risk damage to the shuttle if it was ripped off the freighter, Soriya brought the shuttle to within a couple of meters of the freighter’s docking hatch. The technician, who was wearing a spacesuit, drifted over to the docking hatch, then activated the hatch mechanism. Once inside the airlock, he closed the outer hatch, pressurized the airlock and then made his way to the freighter’s Bridge. Koenig was listening to the com channel between the technician and the shuttle.
“I’m on the Bridge now, and I’m starting the programming process.”
“Do not execute the program until I give the all clear,” said Soriya.
“Understood. Stand by.”
While everyone waited, Koenig turned to the tactical AI. “If the freighter moves before Hardens gets back to the shuttle, target the freighter’s engines only. Fire as soon as you have a high probability of a hit. You don’t need to wait for my permission.”
 
; “Firing instructions understood, CO.”
“Astro, keep us within firing range of that ship if she starts to maneuver.”
Before the AI could acknowledge the order, they heard Hardens’ voice.
“Okay, I’ve finished the programming, and all I need now is the go ahead to execute.”
“Stand by, Hardens,” said Soriya. “Is Excalibur ready?”
“We’re ready, XO. At your discretion,” said Koenig.