The Future of Everything: The Science of Prediction

by David Orrell

  McMurdy, D. (2004). Bakers cope with rising ingredient costs. Edmonton Journal, November 20, 2004.

  McNees, S. K., and Ries, J. (1992). How large are economic forecast errors? New England Economic Review (July–August).

  Meadows, D. H., Meadows, D. L., Randers, J., and Behrens, W. (1972). The limits to growth. New York: Universe Books.

  Meadows, D. H., Meadows, D. L., and Randers, J. (1992). Beyond the limits. Toronto: McClelland andStewart.

  Meehl, G. A., and Tebaldi, C. (2004). More intense, more frequent, and longer-lasting heat waves in the 21st century. Science, 305, 994–97.

  Midgley, M. (1985). Evolution as a religion: Strange hopes and stranger fears.

  London: Methuen.

  Midgley, M. (2000). Gaia: The next big idea. London: Demos.

  Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005). Ecosystems and human well-being: Desertification synthesis. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute.

  Moore, D. S. (2002). The dependent gene: The fallacy of “nature vs. nurture.” New York: Times Books.

  Moran, J. M., Morgan, M. D., and Pauley, P. M. (1997). Meteorology: The atmosphere and the science of weather. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall. Morgan, T. H., Sturtevant, A. H., Muller, H. J., and Bridges, C. B. (1915). The mechanism of Mendelian heredity. New York: Henry Holt.

  Morohashi, M., Winn, A. E., Borisuk, M. T., Bolouri, H., Doyle, J., and Kitano, H. (2002). Robustness as a measure of plausibility in models of biochemical networks. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 216, 19–30.

  Moyers, B. (2004). On receiving Harvard Medical School’s Global Environment Citizen Award. Commondreams.org, December 6, 2004.

  .

  Muir, H. (2003). Einstein and Newton showed signs of autism. New Scientist (April).

  Murphy, J. M., Sexton, D. M. H., Barnett, D. N., Jones G. S.,Webb, M. J., et al (2004). Quantifying uncertainties in climate change using a large ensemble of global climate model predictions. Nature, 430, 768–72.

  Murphy, R. C. (1926). Oceanic and climatic phenomena along the west coast of South America during 1925. Geographical Review, 16, 26–54.

  National Academy of Sciences, Committee on Atmospheric Sciences Panel on Weather and Climate Modification (1966). Weather and climate modification: Problems and prospects, vol. 2. Washington, DC: National Academy of Sciences.

  Nelson, J. A. (1996). The masculine mindset of economic analysis. The Chronicle of Higher Education, 42, B3.

  Nepstad, D. C., Veríssimo, A., Alencar, A. et al (1999). Large-scale impoverishment of Amazonian forests by logging and fire. Nature, 398, 505–508. Neumann, J., and Flohn, H. (1987). Great historical events that were significantly affected by the weather, part 8: Germany’s war on the Soviet Union, 1941–1945. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 68, 620–30.

  Ni, J. (2001). Carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems of China: Estimates at different spatial resolutions and their responses to climate change.

  Climatic Change, 49, 339–58.

  Nicholls, N. (1998). William Stanley Jevons and the climate of Australia.

  Australian Meteorological Magazine, 47, 285–93.

  Nirenberg, M. W. (1963). The genetic code: II. Scientific American, 208 (March), 80–94.

  Nordhaus, W. D. (1994). Managing the global commons: The economics of climate change. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

  Nordhaus, W. D. (1994a). Expert opinion on climatic change. American Scientist, 82, 45–51.

  Norgaard, R. B. (1990). Economic indicators of resource scarcity: a critical essay. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 19, 19–25.

  Oppenheimer, M., and Alley, R. B. (2004). The west Antarctic ice sheet and long-term climate policy. Climatic Change, 64, 1–10.

  Oreskes, N. (2000). Why predict?: Historical perspectives on prediction in the earth sciences. In D. Sarewitz, R. Pielke, Jr., and R. Byerly, Jr. (eds.), Prediction: Decision-making and the future of nature. Washington, DC:

  Island Press.

  Oreskes, N., Shrader-Frechette, K., and Belitz, K. (1994). Verification, validation, and confirmation of numerical models in the earth sciences.

  Science, 263, 641–46.

  Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2005).

  Economic Outlook No. 78, November 2005.

  Orléan, A. (2001). Humility in economics. Post-autistic economics newsletter, 5. [http://www.paecon.net/PAEtexts/Orlean1.htm.paecon.net/PAEtexts/Orlean1.htm] Ormerod, P. (1997). The death of economics. New York: Wiley.

  Ormerod, P. (2000). Butterfly economics. New York: Basic Books.

  Orrell, D. (2006). Post-Pythagorean Economics. Adbusters, 67.

  Orrell, D. (2001). Modelling nonlinear dynamical systems: Chaos, error, and uncertainty. Ph.D. thesis, Oxford University.

  Orrell, D. (2002). Role of the metric in forecast error growth: How chaotic is the weather? Tellus, 54A, 350–62.

  Orrell, D. (2003). Model error and predictability over different timescales in the Lorenz ’96 systems. Journal of Atmospheric Science, 60, 2219–28.

  Orrell, D. (2005a). Ensemble forecasting in a system with model error.

  Journal Atmospheric Science, 62, 1652–59.

  Orrell, D. (2005b). Filtering chaos: A technique for estimating observational and dynamical noise in nonlinear systems. International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos, 15, 99–107.

  Orrell, D. (2005c). Estimating error growth and shadow behavior in nonlinear dynamical systems. International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos, 15, 3265–3280.

  Orrell, D. (2006). Post-Pythagorean Economics. Adbusters, 67.

  Orrell, D., Smith, L., Barkmeijer, J., and Palmer, T. (2001). Model error in weather forecasting. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 8, 357–71.

  Orrell, D., and Bolouri, H. 2004. Control of internal and external noise in genetic regulatory networks. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 230, 301–12. Orrell, D., Ramsey, S., Marelli, M., Smith, J. J., Petersen, T. W., de Atauri, P., Aitchison, J. D., and Bolouri, H. (2005). Feedback control of stochastic noise in the yeast galactose utilization pathway, Physica D, 217, 64–76.

  Orrell, D., Ramsey, S., de Atauri, P., and Bolouri, H. (2005a). A method to estimate stochastic noise in large genetic regulatory networks.

  Bioinformatics, 21, 208–17.

  Osterholm, M. T. (2005). Preparing for the next pandemic. Foreign Affairs, 84 (July/August).

  Ovid. Metamorphoses: Book the first. Translated by Sir Samuel Garth, John Dryden, et al. .

  Parmesan, C., and Galbraith, H. (2004). Observed impacts of global climate change in the U.S. Pew Centre on Global Climate Change. .

  Pearson, K. (1905). The problem of the random walk. Nature, 72, 294.

  Peterson, I. (1993). Newton’s clock. New York: W. H. Freeman.

  Plato. (1961). Collected dialogues. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Plender, J. (2005). Black clouds begin to gather where hedge funds tread.

  Financial Times, May 14, 2005.

  Popper, K. R. (1957). The poverty of historicism. Boston: Beacon Press.

  Population Reference Bureau. (2000). Human population: Fundamentals of growth and change. Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau.

  Powell, B. P. (1998). Classical mythology. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall. Preston, R. (2002). The demon in the freezer. New York: Random House.

  Rabier, F., Klinker, E., Courtier, P., and Hollingsworth, A. (1996).

  Sensitivity of forecast errors to initial conditions. QJR Meteorological Society, 122, 121–50.

  Ramsey, S., Orrell, D., and Bolouri, H. (2005). Dizzy: Stochastic simulation of large-scale genetic regulatory networks. Journal of Bioinformatics and Computational Biology, 3 (2), 1–21.

  Ramsey, S., Smith, J. J., Orrell, D., Marelli, M., Petersen, T. W., de Atauri, P., Bolouri, H. and Aitchison, J. D. (2006). Dual feedback loops in GAL regulon suppress cellular heterogeneity in yea
st. Nature Genetics, 38.

  Ravensbergen, J. (2004). Health pros prepare tools to confront flu epidemic. Edmonton Journal, December 6, 2004.

  Ray, P. H., and Anderson, S. R. (2000). The cultural creatives: How 50 million people are changing the world. New York: Harmony Books.

  Rayner, S. (2000). Prediction and other approaches to climate change policy. In D. Sarewitz, R. Pielke, Jr., and R. Byerly, Jr. (eds.), Prediction: Decision-making and the future of nature. Washington, DC: Island Press. Reagan, N., with Novak, W. (1989). My turn: The memoirs of Nancy Reagan. New York: Random House.

  Rees, M. (2003). Our final hour. New York: Basic Books.

  Richardson, D. (1997). The relative effect of model and analysis differences on ECMWF and UKMO operational forecasts. In T. Palmer (ed.), Predictability. Reading, U.K.: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting.

  Richardson, L. F. (1922). Weather prediction by numerical process. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

  Ridley, B. K. (2001). On science. London: Routledge.

  Ridley, M. (1999). Genome. New York: HarperCollins.

  Ridley, M. (2003). Nature via nurture. New York: HarperCollins.

  Roach, J. (2001). Delphic oracle’s lips may have been loosened by gas vapors. National Geographic News, August 14, 2001.

  Roberts, H. (1959). Stock-market “patterns” and financial analysis:

  Methodological suggestions. Journal of Finance, 14, 1–10.

  Roebber, P. J., Schultz, D. M., Colle, B. A., and Stensrud, D. J. (2004).

  Towards improved prediction: High-resolution and ensemble modeling systems in operations. Weather Forecasting, 19, 936–49.

  Röhl, E. (1950). Los Diluvios en las Montañas de la Cordillera de la Costa. Bolet’n de la Academia de Ciencias Físicas, Matemáticas y Naturales, Venezuela, 38, 1–28.

  Rosenthal, J. S. (2005). Struck by lightning. Toronto: HarperCollins.

  Rotmans, J., and Dowlatabadi, H. (1998). Integrated assessment modeling. In S. Rayner and E. L. Malone (eds.), Human choice and climate change, vol. 3: Tools for policy analysis. Columbus, OH: Battelle Press.

  Roulston, M. S., Kaplan, D. T., Hardenberg, J., and Smith, L. A. (2003).

  Using medium-range weather forecasts to improve the value of wind energy production. Renewable Energy, 28, 585–602.

  Ruddiman, W. F. (2005). How did humans first alter global climate?

  Scientific American (March) 2005.

  Sagan, C., and Turco, R. (1990). A path where no man thought: Nuclear winter and the end of the arms race. New York: Random House.

  Saul, J. R. (1992). Voltaire’s bastards: The dictatorship of reason in the West.

  Toronto: Penguin.

  Saunders P. T., Koeslag J. H., Wessels J. A. (1998). Integral rein control in physiology. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 194, 163–73.

  Schneider, S. H. (1989). Global warming. San Francisco: Sierra Club Books. Schneider, S. H. (2002). Can we estimate the likelihood of climatic changes at 2100? Climatic Change, 52, 441–51.

  Schneider, S. H., and Root, T. L. (2001). Climate change: Overview and implications for wildlife. In S. H. Schneider and T. L. Root (eds.), Wildlife responses to climate change: North American case studies.

  Washington, DC: Island Press.

  Schnur, R. (2002). The investment forecast. Nature, 415, 483–84.

  Schrödinger, E. (1944). What is life? Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Seaton, R. A. (2004). Western philosophy. Unpublished thesis.

  Shamas, L. (2003). Cassandra ignored/Apollo avenged: The complex of disbelief in 2003. Headlinemuse.com. .

  Shapiro, J. (1999). Genome system architecture and natural genetic engineering in evolution. In Lynn Helena Caporale (ed.), Molecular strategies in biological evolution, Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 870. Sherden, W. A. (1998). The fortune sellers: The big business of buying and selling predictions. New York: John Wiley.

  Shiva, V. (2002). Water wars: Privatization, pollution, and profit. Cambridge, MA: South End Press.

  Simmons, A., Mureau, R., and Petroliagis, T. (1995). Error growth and estimates of predictability from the ECMWF forecasting system. QJR Meteorological Society, 121, 1739–71.

  Simons, K. (1997). Model error. New England Economic Review, November 17–28, 1997.

  Singer, D. (2005). Private communication. [e-mail, August 2, 2005.] Skinner, B. F. (1973). Beyond freedom and dignity. Harmondsworth, U.K.:

  Penguin.

  Slonim, D. K., Tamayo, P., Mesirov, J. P., Golub, T. R., and Lander, E. S. (2000). Class prediction and discovery using gene expression data. Proceedings of the fourth annual International Conference on Computational Molecular Biology, Tokyo, Japan, 263–72.

  Smith, A. (1776). An inquiry into the nature and causes of the wealth of nations. London: Methuen. (Reprinted in 1999 as The Wealth of Nations: Books I-III by Penguin, London, U.K.) Smith, L. A. (1996). Accountability in ensemble prediction. In T. Palmer (ed.), Predictability. Reading, U.K.: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting.

  Smith, L. A. (1997). The maintenance of uncertainty. In G. C. Castagnoli and A. Provenzale (eds.), Past and present variability in the solar-terrestial system: Measurement, data analysis and theoretical models, vol. 133 of the International School of Physics, Il Nuovo Cimento, Bologna, Italy.

  Smith, L. A. (2000). Disentangling uncertainty and error: On the predictability of nonlinear systems. In A. I. Mees (ed.), Nonlinear dynamics and statistics. Boston: Birkhauser.

  Smith, L. A., Ziehmann, C., and Fraedrich, K. (1999). Uncertainty dynamics and predictability in chaotic systems. QJR Meteorological Society, 125, 2855–86.

  Soros, G. (2000). Open society: Reforming global capitalism. New York: Public Affairs.

  Stainforth, D. A., Aina, T., Christensen, C., Collins, M., Frame, D. J., Kettleborough, J. A., Knight, S., Martin, A., Murphy, J., Piani, C., Sexton, D., Smith, L. A., Spicer, R. A., Thorpe, A. J., and Allen, M. R.

  (2005). Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases. Nature, 433, 403–406.

  Stewart, I. (1989). Does God play dice: The new mathematics of chaos.

  Cambridge: Blackwell.

  Stoto, M. (1983). The accuracy of population projections. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 78, 13–20.

  Strohmeir, J., and Westbrook, P. (1999). Divine harmony: The life and teachings of Pythagoras. Berkeley, CA: Berkeley Hills Books.

  Sunnafrank, M., and Ramirez., A. (2004). At first sight: Persistent relational effects of get-acquainted conversations. Journal of Social and Personal Relationships, 21, 361–79.

  Suzuki, D. (2005). The beauty of wind farms. New Scientist, April 16, 2005. Taverne, D. (2005). The march of unreason. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Tetlock, P. E. (2005). Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Princeton: Princeton University Press.

  Thelen, E., and Smith, L. B. (1994). A dynamic systems approach to the development of cognition and action. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

  Thucydides (1910). The Peloponnesian War. London: J. M. Dent.

  Tjio, J. H., and Levan, A. (1956). The chromosome number of man.

  Hereditas, 42, 1.

  Tol, R. S. J., and Dowlatabadi, H. (2002). Vector-borne diseases, development, and climate change. Integrated Environmental Assessment, 2, 173–81.

  Toth, Z., Kalnay, E., Tracton, S., Wobus, S., and lrwin, J. (1996). A synoptic evaluation of the NCEP ensemble. In T. Palmer (ed.), Proceedings of the 5th Workshop on Meteorological Operating Systems. Reading, U.K.:

  European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting.

  Trenberth, K. (2005). Uncertainty in hurricanes and global warming.

  Science, 308, 1753–54.

  Tumpey, T. M., et al (2005). Characterization of the reconstructed 1918 Spanish influenza pandemic virus. Science, 310, 77–80.

  Union of Concerned Scientists (1993). World scientists’ warning to humanity. Cambridge, MA
: Union of Concerned Scientists.

  Uttal, T., et al (2002). Surface heat budget of the Arctic Ocean. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 83, 255–75.

  Van der Waerden, B. L. (1974). Science awakening 2: The birth of astronomy. New York: Oxford University Press.

  Van Kampen, K. (2005). The golden cell. Toronto: HarperCollins.

  Vedantam, S. (2004). Warning system not in place. Washington Post, December 27, 2004.

  Verma, M., Bhat, P. J. and Venkatesh, K.V. (2003). Quantitative analysis of gal genetic switch of saccharomyces cerevisiae reveals that nuclearcytoplas-mic shuttling of gal80p results in a highly sensitive response to galactose. Journal of Biological Chemistry, 278, 48764–48769.

  Vernadsky, V. I. (1929). La biosphere. Paris: Felix Alcan.

  Vine, B. (2005). The minotaur. London: Viking.

  Walker, G. T. (1918). Correlation in seasonal variations of weather. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 44, 223–24.

  Wallace, P. (2000). Just wait for the gold rush to end. New Statesman, February 21, 2000.

  Watson, A. J., and Lovelock, J. E. (1983). Biological homeostasis of the global environment: The parable of Daisyworld. Tellus, 35B, 284.

  Watson, J. D. (1968). The double helix. London: Readers Union.

  Watson, J. D., and Crick, F. H. C. (1953). Molecular structure of nucleic acids: A structure for deoxyribose nucleic acid. Nature, 171, 737.

  Watson, W. (2005). Bears bash Bush—over the events of 2080. National Post, September 29, 2005.

  Watts, D. J. (2003). Six degrees: The science of a connected age. New York: W. W. Norton.

  Webster, P. J., Holland, G. J., Curry, J. A., and Chang, H.-R. (2005).

  Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment. Science, 309, 1844–46.

  Wertheim, M. (1995). Pythagoras’ trousers: God, physics, and the gender wars. New York: W. W. Norton.

  Weston, A. D., and Hood, L. (2004). Systems biology, proteomics, and the future of health care: Toward predictive, preventative, and personalized medicine. Journal of Proteome Research, 3, 179–96.

  White, A. D. (1896). A history of the warfare between science and theology in Christendom. New York: D. Appleton-Century Company.