The Theory That Would Not Die

by Sharon Bertsch McGrayne

  Parcaut M et al. (1979) History of France. Encyclopaedia Britannica (7) 611–81.

  Pelseneer, Jean. (1946) La religion de Laplace. Isis (36) 158–60.

  Poirier, Jean-Pierre. (1998) Lavoisier: Chemist, Biologist, Economist. Trans. Rebecca Balinski. University of Pennsylvania Press.

  Porter, Roy. (2003) Introduction. In The Cambridge History of Science (4) Eighteenth-Century Science, ed., R Porter. Cambridge University Press.

  Rappaport, Rhoda. (1981) The liberties of the Paris Academy of Sciences 1716–1785. In The Analytic Spirit, ed., Harry Woolf. Cornell University Press. 225–53. Richards, Joan L. (2006) Historical mathematics in the French eighteenth century. Isis (97) 700–713.

  Roche, Daniel. (1998) France in the Enlightenment. Trans. Arthur Goldhammer. Harvard University Press. A classic.

  Sarton, George. (1941) Laplace’s religion. Isis (33) 309–12.

  Shafer, Glenn. (1990) The unity and diversity of probability. Statistical Science (5:4) 435–62.

  Shepherd W. (1814) Paris in Eighteen Hundred and Two and Eighteen Hundred and Fifteen. 2d ed. M. Carey.

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  Stigler SM. (1975) Napoleonic statistics: The work of Laplace. Biometrika (62:2) 503–17.

  ———. (1978). Laplace’s early work: Chronology and citations. Isis (69) 234–54.

  ———. (1982) Thomas Bayes’s Bayesian Inference. JRSS, A. (145) Part 2, 250–58. Bayes’ article with modern mathematical notation and Stigler’s commentary. The starting place for anyone interested in Bayes.

  ———. (1983) Who discovered Bayes’s Theorem? American Statistician (37) 290–96.

  ———. (1986a) Laplace’s 1774 memoir on inverse probability. Statistical Science (1) 359–63. Stigler’s English translation with modern mathematical notation. The best place to read this famous paper.

  ———. (1986b). The History of Statistics: The Measurement of Uncertainty before 1900. Belknap Press of Harvard University Press. A classic.

  ———. (2003) Casanova’s lottery. University of Chicago Record (37:4) 2–5.

  Todhunter I. (1865) A History of the Mathematical Theory of Probability: From the Time of Pascal to that of Laplace. Cambridge University Press.

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  Union des Physiciens de Caen. (1999) L’Année Laplace. Section Académique de Caen, http://www.udppc.asso.fr/section/caen/caen.htm

  Voltaire. (1961) On the Church of England, on the Presbyterians, on Academies. In Philosophical Letters. Bobbs-Merrill.

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  Zabell SL. (1988) Buffon, Price, and Laplace: Scientific attribution in the 18th century. Archive for the History of Exact Sciences (39) 173–82.

  Chapter 3. Many Doubts, Few Defenders

  Alexander, R. Amir. (2006) Tragic mathematics: Romantic narratives and the refounding of mathematics in the early nineteenth century. Isis (97) 714–26.

  Anonymous. (August 27, 1899) Traps Mercier and Maurel: Capt. Freystaetter convicts both of giving false evidence—Bertillon affords more amusement. New York Times 1,2. By a courtroom reporter at Dreyfus’s trial.

  Anonymous. (1964) Edward C. Molina. American Statistician (18:3) 36.

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  Bennett JH, ed. (1990) Statistical Inference and Analysis: Selected Correspondence of R. A. Fisher. Clarendon Press.

  Bolt, Bruce A. (1991) Sir Harold Jeffreys and geophysical inverse problems. Chance (4:2) 15–17.

  Box, Joan Fisher. (1978) R. A. Fisher: The Life of a Scientist. John Wiley.

  Broemling, Lyle D. (2002) The Bayesian contributions of Edmond Lhoste. ISBA Bulletin 3–4.

  Bru, Bernard. (1993) Doeblin’s life and work from his correspondence. Contemporary Mathematics (149) 1–64.

  ———. (1996) Problème de l’efficacité du tir à l’école d’artillerie de Metz. Aspects théoriques et expérimentaus. Mathématiques et sciences humaines (136) 29–42.

  ———. (1999) Borel, Lévy, Neyman, Pearson et les autres. MATAPLI (60) 51–60.

  ———. (2006) Les leçons de calcul des probabilities de Joseph Bertrand: Les Lois du hazard. Journ@l électronique d’Histoire des Probabilités et de la Statistique/Electronic Journal of History of Probability and Statistics. (2:2) www.jehps.net.

  Clerke, Agnes Mary. (1911) Laplace. Encyclopaedia Britannica (16) 200–203.

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  Cook, Alan. (1990) Sir Harold Jeffreys, 2 April 1891–18 March 1989. Biographical Memoirs of Fellows of the Royal Society (36) 302–33.

  Crépel, Pierre. (1993) Henri et la droite de Henry. MATAPLI (36) 19–22.

  Dale, Andrew I. (1999) A History of Inverse Probability from Thomas Bayes to Karl Pearson. 2d ed. Springer. One of the foundational works in the history of probability.

  Daston, Lorraine J. (1987) The domestication of risk: mathematical probability and insurance 1650–1830. In The Probabilistic Revolution I, eds., L Krüger, L Daston, M Heidel-berger. MIT Press. 237–60.

  ———. (1994) How probabilities came to be objective and subjective. Historia Mathematica (21) 330–44.

  Daston L, Galison P. (2007) Objectivity. Zone Books.

  David, Florence Nightingale. (1962) Games, Gods and Gambling. Charles Griffin. 1998 Dover Edition.

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  De Finetti, Bruno. (1972) Probability, Induction and Statistics: The Art of Guessing. John Wiley and Sons.

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  ———. (1997) What did Fisher mean by “Inverse Probability” in 1912–1922? Statistical Science (12) 177–84.

  Efron, Bradley. (1998) R. A. Fisher in the 21st century. Statistical Science (13) 95–122.

  Estienne JE. (March 10, 1890) “Étude sur les erreurs d’observation.” In Archives de L’Institut de France. Académie des Sciences.

  ———. (1892) “La probabilité de plusieurs causes étant connue, à quelle cause est-il plausible d’attribuer l’arrivé de l’évènement?” Comptes Rendus des Séances de L’Académie des Sciences (114:semester 1892) 1223.

  ———. (1905/6) Loisirs d’Artilleurs. Berger-Levrault.

  Fagen MD, ed. (1975) The History of Engineering and Science in the Bell System: The History of the Early Years 1875–1925. Vol. 1. Bell Telephone Laboratories Inc.

  Fienberg, Stephen E. (1992) Brief history of statistics in three and one-half chapters: A review essay. Statistical Science (7) 208–25.

  Filon LNG. (1936) Karl Pearson 1857–1936. Obituary Notices of the Royal Society (2) 73–110.

  Fisher, Arne. (1916) Note on an application of Bayes’ rule in the classification of hazards in experience rating. PCAS (3) 43–48.

  Fisher, Ronald Aylmer. (1925) Statistical Methods for Research Workers. Oliver and Boyd.

  Gigerenzer G, Swijtink Z, Porter T, Daston L, Beatty J, Krüger L. (1989) The Empire of Chance: How Probability Changed Science And Everyday Life. Cambridge University Press. Many useful articles.

  Hacking, Ian. [1989] Was there a probabilistic revolution 1800–1930? In The Probabilistic Revolution, eds., L Krüger, LJ Daston, and M Heid
elberger. Vol. 1. MIT Press.

  Hald, Anders. (1998) A History of Mathematical Statistics from 1750 to 1930. John Wiley and Sons. A classic.

  Howie, David. (2002) Interpreting Probability: Controversies and Developments in the Early Twentieth Century. Cambridge University Press. The Fisher-Jeffreys debate.

  Huzurbazar, Vassant S. (1991) Sir Harold Jeffreys: Recollections of a student. Chance (4:2) 18–21.

  Jeffreys, Bertha Swirles. (1991) Harold Jeffreys: Some reminiscences. Chance (4:2) 22–26.

  Jeffreys, Harold. (1939, 1948, 1961). Theory of Probability. Clarendon Press.

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  Kaye, David H. (2007) Revisiting Dreyfus: A more complete account of a trial by mathematics. Minnesota Law Review (91:3) 825–35.

  Knopoff, Leon. (1991) Sir Harold Jeffreys: The Earth: Its origin, history, and physical constitution. Chance (4:2) 24–26.

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  Krüger L, Daston L, Heidelberger M, eds. (1987) The Probabilistic Revolution, vol. 1: Ideas in History. MIT Press.

  Krüger L, Gigerenzer G, Morgan M, eds. (1987) The Probabilistic Revolution, vol. 2: Ideas in History. MIT Press.

  Kruskal, William. (1980) The Significance of Fisher: A review of R. A. Fisher: The Life of a Scientist. Journal of the American Statistical Association (75) 1019–30.

  Le process Dreyfus devant le conseil de guerre de Rennes (7 aout-9 septembre 1899): compte-rendu sténographique in extenso. (1899) http://gallica2.bnf.fr/ark:/12148/bpt6k242524.zoom.r=procès.f335.langEN.tableDesMatieres.

  Lightman, Bernard. (2007) Victorian Popularizers of Science. University of Chicago Press.

  Lindley DV. (1983) Transcription of a conversation between Sir Harold Jeffreys and Professor D. V. Lindley from a videotape made on behalf of the Royal Statistical Society. In St. John’s College, Cambridge, UK, Papers of Sir Harold Jeffreys A25.

  ———. (1986a) On re-reading Jeffreys. In Pacific Statistical Congress, eds., IS Francis, BFJ Manly, FC Lam. Elsevier.

  ———. (1986b) Bruno de Finetti, 1906–1985. JRSS Series A (General) (149) 252.

  ———. (1989) Obituary: Harold Jeffreys, 1891–1989. JRSS Series A (Statistics in Society) (152:3) 417–18.

  ———. (1991) Sir Harold Jeffreys. Chance (4:2) 10–14, 21.

  Loveland, Jeff. (2001) Buffon, the certainty of sunrise, and the probabilistic reductio ad absurdum. Archives of the History of Exact Sciences (55) 465–77.

  MacKenzie, Donald A. (1981) Statistics in Britain 1865–1930: The Social Construction of Scientific Knowledge. Edinburgh University Press.

  ———. (1989) Probability and statistics in historical perspective. Isis (80) 116–24.

  Magnello, M. Eileen. (1996) Karl Pearson’s Gresham Lectures: W. F. R. Weldon, speciation and the origins of Pearsonian statistics. British Journal for the History of Science (29:1) 43–63.

  Marie, Maximilien. (1883–88) Histoire des sciences mathématiques et physiques. Vol. 10. Paris: Gauthier-Villars. 69–98.

  Mellor DH. (1995) Better than the stars: A radio portrait of Frank Ramsey. Philosophy (70) 243–62. The original version was broadcast by BBC Radio 3 February 27, 1978. http://www.Dar.cam.ac.uk/~dhm11/RanseyLect.html. Acc. May 21, 2004.

  Millman S. (1984) The History of Communications and Sciences (1925–1980). Vol. 5. AT&T Bell Labs.

  Miranti, Paul J. Jr. (2002) Corporate learning and traffic management at the Bell System, 1900–1929: Probability theory and the evolution of organizational capabilities. Business History Review (76:4) 733–65.

  Molina, Edward C. (1913) Computation formula for the probability of an event happening at least C times in N trials. American Mathematical Monthly (20) 190–93.

  ———. (1922) The theory of probabilities applied to telephone trunking problems. Bell System Technical Journal (1) 69–81.

  ———. (1931) Bayes’ theorem. Annals of Mathematical Statistics (2) 23–27.

  ———. (1941) Commentary in Facsimiles of Two Papers by Bayes, ed. W. Edwards Deming. Graduate School, Department of Agriculture.

  ———. (1946) Some fundamental curves for the solution of sampling problems. Annals of Mathematical Statistics (17) 325–35.

  Moore, Calvin C. (2007) Mathematics at Berkeley: A History. AK Peters.

  Morehead EJ. (1989) Our Yesterdays: The History of the Actuarial Profession in North America 1809–1979. Society of Actuaries.

  Morgan, Augustus de. (1839) Laplace. Penny Cylcopaedia of the Society for the Diffusion of Useful Knowledge. London: 1833–46. (13) 325–28.

  Mowbray AH. (1914–15) How extensive a payroll exposure is necessary to give a dependable pure premium? PCAS (1) 24–30.

  ———. (1915) The determination of pure premiums for minor classifications on which the experience data is insufficient for direct estimate. PCAS (2) 124–33.

  Neyman J. (1934) Statistical problems in agricultural experiment. With discussion. Supplement to the JRSS. (2:2) 107–80. (Discussion pp. 154–80.)

  ———. (1976) The emergence of mathematical statistics: a historical sketch with particular reference to the United States. In On the History of Statistics and Probability, ed., DB Owen. Marcel Dekker. 147–94.

  Olkin, Ingram. (1992) A conversation with Churchill Eisenhart. Statistical Science (7) 512–30.

  Otis, Stanley L. (1914–15) A Letter of Historical Interest. PCAS (1) 8–9.

  Pearson, Egon S. (1925) Bayes’ theorem examined in the light of experimental sampling. Biometrika (17) 388–442.

  ———. (1936 and 1937) Karl Pearson: An appreciation of some aspects of his life and work. Biometrika (28) 193–257 and (29) 161–248.

  ———. (1962) Some thoughts on statistical inference. Annals of Mathematical Statistics. (33:2) 394–403.

  ———. (1968) Studies in the history of probability and statistics. XX: Some early correspondence between W. S. Gosset, R. A. Fisher, and Karl Pearson, with notes and comments. Biometrika (55:3) 445–57.

  Pearson, Karl. (1892) The Grammar of Science. W. Scott.

  ———. (1901) The Ethic of Freethought and Other Addresses and Essays. 2d ed. Charles Black.

  ———. (1912) Social Problems: Their Treatment, Past, Present, and Future. Dulau.

  ———. (1929) Laplace, being extracts from lectures delivered by Karl Pearson. Biometrika (21) 202–16.

  Perryman, Francis S. (1937) Experience rating plan credibilities. PCAS (24) 60–125.

  Porter, Theodore M. (1986) The Rise of Statistical Thinking, 1820–1900. Princeton University Press.

  ———. (1995) Trust in Numbers: The Pursuit of Objectivity in Science and Public Life. Princeton University Press.

  ———. (2003) Statistics and physical theories. In The Cambridge History of Science. Vol. 5: The Modern Physical and Mathematical Sciences, ed. Mary Jo Nye. Cambridge University Press.

  ———. (2004) Karl Pearson: The Scientific Life in a Statistical Age. Princeton University Press.

  Pruitt, Dudley M. (1964) The first fifty years. PCAS (51) 148–81.

  Reed, Lowell J. (1936) Statistical treatment of biological problems in irradiation. In Biological Effects of Radiation, Vol. 1, ed. Benjamin M. Duggar, 227–51. McGraw-Hill.

  Reid, Constance. (1982) Neyman—from Life. Springer-Verlag.

  Rubinow, Isaac M. (1913) Social Insurance. Henry Holt.

  ———. (1914–15) Scientific Methods of Computing Compensation Rates. PCAS (1) 10–23.

  ———. (1915) Liability loss reserves. PCAS (1:3) 279–95.

  ———. (1917) The theory and practice of law differentials. PCAS (4) 8–44.

  ———. (1934) A letter. PCAS (21).

  Schindler GE Jr., ed. (1982) A History of Switching Technology (1925–1975). Vol. 3. Bell Telephone Laboratories.

  Searle GR, ed. (1976) Eugenics and Politics in Britain 1900–1914. Noordhoff International Publishing.<
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  Seddik-Ameur, Nacira. (2003) Les tests de normalité de Lhoste. Mathematics and Social Sciences/Mathématiques et Sciences Humaines (162: summer) 19–43.

  Stigler, Stephen M. (1986). The History of Statistics: The Measurement of Uncertainty before 1900. Belknap Press of Harvard University Press. A classic.

  ———. (1999). Statistics on the Table: The History of Statistical Concepts and Methods. Harvard University Press.

  Taqqu, Murad S. (2001) Bachelier and his times: A conversation with Bernard Bru. Finance and Stochastics (5) 3–32.

  Whitney, Albert W. (1918) The theory of experience rating. PCAS (4) 274–92.

  Wilhelmsen L. (1958) Actuarial activity in general insurance in the northern countries of Europe. ASTIN Bulletin (1) 22–27.

  Wilkinson RI. (1955) An appreciation of E. C. Molina. First International Teletraffic Congress, Copenhagen, June 20th-June 23rd, 1955. International Teletraffic Congress 30–31.

  Willoughby, William Franklin. (1898) Workingmen’s Insurance. Thomas Y. Crowell.

  Zabell, Sandy L. (1989) R. A. Fisher on the history of inverse probability. Statistical Science (4) 247–56.

  ———. (1989) The Rule of Succession. Erkenntnis (31) 283–321.

  ———. (1992) R. A. Fisher and fiducial argument. Statistical Science (7) 369–87.

  Part II. Second World War Era

  Chapter 4. Bayes Goes to War

  Andresen, Scott L. (Nov.–Dec. 2001) Donald Michie: Secrets of Colossus revealed. IEEE Intelligent Systems 82–83.

  Arnold, VI. (2004) A.N. Kolmogorov and natural science. Russian Math. Surveys (59:1) 27–46.

  Barnard, GA & Plackett, RL. (1985) Statistics in the United Kingdom, 1939–45. In AC Atkinson, SE Fienberg, eds., A Celebration of Statistics. Springer-Verlag. 31–55.

  Barnard GA. (1986) Rescuing our manufacturing industry—some of the statistical problems. The Statistician (35) 3–16.

  Bauer FL. (2000) Decrypted Secrets. Springer.

  Burroughs J, Lieberman D, Reeds J. (2009) The secret life of Andy Gleason. Notices of the American Mathematical Society (in draft).

  Booss-Bavnbek B, Hoeyrup J. (2003) Mathematics and War. Birkhäuser Verlag.